First, a clarification; while the AGU calls it an “ozone hole”, it technically isn’t. As NASA says here, it really isn’t a “hole” in the true sense of the word, it is simply a region of reduced O3 concentration that periodically changes in size, shape, and density. -Anthony
Ozone hole might slightly warm planet
AGU Release No. 13-39
WASHINGTON, DC—A lot of people mix up the ozone hole and global warming, believing the hole is a major cause of the world’s increasing average temperature. Scientists, on the other hand, have long attributed a small cooling effect to the ozone shortage in the hole.
Now a new computer-modeling study suggests that the ozone hole might actually have a slight warming influence, but because of its effect on winds, not temperatures. The new research suggests that shifting wind patterns caused by the ozone hole push clouds farther toward the South Pole, reducing the amount of radiation the clouds reflect and possibly causing a bit of warming rather than cooling.
“We were surprised this effect happened just by shifting the jet stream and the clouds,” said lead author Kevin Grise, a climate scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in New York City.
Grise notes this small warming effect may be important for climatologists trying to predict the future of Southern Hemisphere climate.
The work is detailed in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. Grise collaborated on the study with Lorenzo Polvani of Columbia University, George Tselioudis of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Yutian Wu of New York University, and Mark Zelinka of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Hole in the sky
Each ozone molecule consists of three oxygen atoms bound together. These ozone molecules gather in the lower portion of the stratosphere about 20 to 30 kilometers (12 to 19 miles) above the ground—about twice as high as commercial airliners fly.
Thankfully for the living things below, this layer of ozone shields Earth from some of the hazardous ultraviolet radiation barraging the atmosphere. Unchecked, these ultraviolet rays can cause sunburns, eye damage and even skin cancer.
In the 1980s, scientists discovered thinning of the ozone layer above Antarctica during the Southern Hemisphere’s spring months. The cause of this “hole” turned out to be chlorofluorocarbons, such as Freon, from cooling systems, aerosols cans and degreasing solvents, which break apart ozone molecules. Even though the1987 Montreal Protocol banned these chlorofluorocarbons worldwide, the ozone hole persists decades later.
Many people falsely equate the ozone hole to global warming. In a 2010 Yale University poll, 61 percent of those surveyed believed the ozone hole significantly contributed to global warming. Additionally, 43 percent agreed with the statement “if we stopped punching holes in the ozone layer with rockets, it would reduce global warming”.
An actual consequence of the ozone hole is its odd effect on the Southern Hemisphere polar jet stream, the fast flowing air currents encircling the South Pole. Despite the ozone hole only appearing during the spring months, throughout each subsequent summer the high-speed jet stream swings south toward the pole.
“For some reason when you put an ozone hole in the Southern Hemisphere during springtime, you get this robust poleward shift in the jet stream during the following summer season,” said Grise. “People have been looking at this for 10 years and there’s still no real answer of why this happens.”
Cloud reflection
The team of scientists led by Grise wondered if the ozone hole’s impacts on the jet stream would have any indirect effects on the cloud cover. Using computer models, they worked out how the clouds would react to changing winds.
“Because the jet stream shifts, the storm systems move along with it toward the pole,” said Grise. “If the storm systems move, the cloud system is going to move with it.”
High- and mid-level clouds, the team discovered, traveled with the shifting jet stream toward the South Pole and the Antarctic continent. Low-level cloud coverage dropped in their models throughout the Southern Ocean. While modeling clouds is a difficult task due to the variety of factors that guide their formation and movement, Grise noted that observational evidence from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, a decades-long NASA effort to map global cloud distributions, supports their theory of migrating cloud coverage.
When the cloud cover moves poleward, the amount of energy the clouds can reflect drops, which increases the amount of radiation reaching the ground. “If you shift the reflector poleward,” Grise explained, “you’ve moved it somewhere there is less radiation coming in.”
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported a direct cooling effect from the thinning ozone layer—specifically, a reduction of about 0.05 watts per square meter’s worth of energy reaching the ground. However, Grise and his colleagues estimated the indirect effect of the shifting cloud coverage to be an increase of approximately 0.2 watts per square meter. Their result not only suggests that warming rather than cooling would be taking place, but also that there’s a larger influence overall. Since the jet stream only shifts during the summer months, the warming only takes place in those months.
“Theoretically this net radiation input into the system should give some sort of temperature increase, but it’s unknown if that signal could be detected or what the magnitude of it would be,” said Grise. For comparison, worldwide, an average of about 175 watts per square meter reaches the ground from sunlight, according to the George Washington University Solar Institute.
Dennis Hartmann, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle unrelated with the project, points out that since predicting cloud behavior is so challenging, the model used in Grise’s study could be underestimating clouds north of the jet stream being pulled toward the equator and in turn reflecting more light, potentially reducing or even negating the warming effect. Hartmann added that he also has some concerns about the modeling of the low-level cloud response.
Still, “this is certainly a very interesting topic and potentially important from a practical perspective of predicting Southern Hemisphere climate and even global warming rates,” he commented.
Climate tug-of-war
Looking toward the future, the jet stream should do less and less shifting to the south during the summer months as the ozone layer above the South Pole recovers. However, increasing levels of greenhouse gases can also change mid-latitude wind patterns and push the jet stream poleward, creating a complicated scenario which Grise said he plans to study in future work.
“You have sort of this tug-of-war between the jet being pulled equator-ward during the summer because of the ozone recovery and the greenhouse gases pulling the jet further poleward,” said Grise. “What the clouds do in that scenario is an open question.”
Funding for the research was provided by the National Science Foundation and by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science.
Notes for Journalists: Journalists and public information officers (PIOs) of educational and scientific institutions who have registered with AGU can download a PDF copy of this article by clicking on the following link:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50675/abstract
Or, you may order a copy of the paper by emailing your request to Thomas Sumner. Please provide your name, the name of your publication, and your phone number.
Neither the paper nor this press release is under embargo.
Title:
The Ozone Hole Indirect Effect: Cloud-Radiative Anomalies Accompanying the Poleward Shift of the Eddy-Driven Jet in the Southern Hemisphere
Authors:
Kevin M. Grise: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
Lorenzo M. Polvani: Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA;
George Tselioudis: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA;
Yutian Wu: Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, New York, USA;
Mark D. Zelinka: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA.
Contact information for the authors:
Kevin Grise, +1 (845) 735-3802, Email: kgrise@ldeo.columbia.edu
Lorenzo Polvani, +1 (212) 854-7331, Email: lmp@columbia.edu
Three lies or inaccuracies right there. Can anyone spot them?
1. “We were surprised”. No, I highly doubt that they were surprised, with the only possibility being that they were surprised they could actually adjust the model to get that particular result.
2. “this effect happened”. Well, it happened in a model. That doesn’t mean the effect actually happened.
3. Climate “Scientist”. Not sure “scientist” is an accurate word for this. Or he might be, except for this particular foray into non-scientific voodoo.
Mind boggling that something so uncertain and riddled with doubt could actually be published as a result.
Further re O2 paramagnetism and O3 diamagnetics as an explanation for the hole, is there not data from satellites on the varying composition of the atmosphere? That would be pretty supportive if it showed my prediction that O2 ratio to each other atmospheric gas is greater in the hole than its other atmospheric friends including CO2. This should make for a small depletion of oxygen and enrichment of CO2, N2, O3…in equatorial regions. Winds may disturb this relationship (although it certainly seems to hold somewhat for O3) My point is it can be tested and if correct, we can perhaps give the CFC folks a run for their money.
Eliza : “My father who was at the max Planck Institut fur Physic in 1935 to 37 flew to both poles every year and everytime there was a ozone hole in winter at both both poles Duh…..”
The ozone hole does not form in winter, so you father must have been observing something else.
Shaved Ape” : “Correct me, if I am wrong, but this seems incorrect. “…In the 1980s, scientists discovered thinning of the ozone layer above Antarctica during the Southern Hemisphere’s spring months…” My understanding is that the ‘ozone hole’ was discovered in the 1950′s and the effect was latched onto in the 1970′s as the end-of-the-world due to CFC’s.”
Yes, you are wrong (well you did ask). The ozone ‘hole’ (dip really) was recognised in the 1980’s when it was realised that ozone concentrations in the Spring were must lower than had been measured in the 50’s and 60’s See this graph http://www.atm.ch.cam.ac.uk/tour/tour_images/total_ozone.gif
which show the concentrations as actually measured.
The graph is from here http://www.atm.ch.cam.ac.uk/tour/part1.html which describes what has been observed, and what chemistry is involved.
“Ozone hole” is a technical term meaning an area less than 220 DU thick. So, technically, there’s an ozone hole.
The prediction I remember from the late 80s/early 90s was that the hole would continue to get worse even if we stopped all CFC emissions immediately, but then would stabilize after about 20 years, and recover after 50 or so years. So far, this is exactly what has happened.
Another case of “If we model it, it must be true,” huh?
M Courtney says:
August 8, 2013 at 2:16 pm
“Gary Pearse says at August 8, 2013 at 1:59 pm…
That does make sense at first glance. It’s definitely not worth ignoring.”
Here is an image of CO2 concentration around the globe. As predicted in my post above based on diamagnetism:
Gary Pearse says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:18 pm
“Further re O2 paramagnetism and O3 diamagnetics as an explanation for the hole, is there not data from satellites on the varying composition of the atmosphere? That would be pretty supportive if it showed my prediction that O2 ratio to each other atmospheric gas is greater in the hole than its other atmospheric friends including CO2….”
http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/datareleases/acos-version-3.3
Click on the graphic to the right
Non sequester comment follows (which, by definition, cannot be followed).
The so-called “ozone hole(s)” have nothing to do with climate nor CO2 nor refrigerants nor the Montreal Protocol.
The “Ozone Hole” is to do with solar activity and the interaction of solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field. Period.
This whole bunkam is just that, a scare opportunity by the UN, gratis greenies, to further its role as a global government. Damn their hopes!
“…Now a new computer-modeling study suggests that…”
A computer modeling study might easily suggest that 2 = 0, but it ain’t.
Robert of Ottawa says:
August 8, 2013 at 5:29 pm
> Non sequester comment follows (which, by definition, cannot be followed).
I wasn’t aware it had a definition, I would have thought that a definition couldn’t follow it unless you’re defining it by right of invention.
For some reason, it makes me think of the US Congress’ stupid sequester own goal instead of not sequestering CO2.
Anthony, thanks for an interesting post. And particularly for putting the “hole” into context at the begining of the post.
As I read the post, I did not see any of the usual “Propaganda” that signifies an “Alarmist” piece. As Willis woudl say, for me ( not Willis ) this passes my sniff test. It looks ( to me ) as a reasonable but provisional piece of good scientific research. They claim that they used a model but then state that they checked the model output against emperical data. Note, I have only read the post and not the paper. The effect they are claiming is 0.2 w/m2. That is tiny. And they are not, as some commenters are claiming, saying that the Antartic is warming. Far from it. The Antartic, would be cooling from what they descrfibe, but the planet an a whole would be warming by the tiny amount of 0.2 w/m2. The one big flaw in thew article or post is iirc the claim that the incomming energy from the Sun is 175 w/m2. Again iirc, I remember this as usually being said as 1270 w/m2. This could be explained by a typo and where they say 175 they could have meant 1275 w/m2.
I lived through the 1980’s CFC scare and I believed it. This post plus some of the comments caused be to do a little bit of googleing. I discovered that both Venus and Mars have Ozone layers and that the current theory is that they are created by Sunlight breaking down CO2. However, Earth’s Ozone layer is mainly caused by life. This is not impossible, but I question the inconsistancy of the explanation.
I also searched for “Ozone Hole Controversey” and found an article by Dr. Fred S. Singer at the Hertland Institute. I have not read enough of Dr. Singer’s work ti fully trust him. However, it was a well written article with a lot of references. It acknowledges many conventional aspects of Ozone hole theory whilst challenging others. It looks like, to me, a well written article.
I think that clouds are probably the most understudyed major climate elements. So I welcome that some one is attempting to study and model clouds. This effect may be trival but it is a start. For far to long, the “biggest problem in the wood pile” has been clouds. It has always struck me that ignoring clouds was akin to searching for the car keys under the lamppost when you knew that was not wherer you lost them. But doing it bevcause it was where there was light.
We need more Cloud research. And not just of tiny effects like this.
/ikh
Even if it is wrong, the explanation offered by Gary Pearse is more sufficient than the CFC-depletion hypothesis, if only because it attempts to explain the phenomena as it appears in maps rather than as it is misrepresented with words ( e.g., “A Piece of the Sky is Missing” – Carl Sagan). The map does appear to show a displacement of ozone rather than a depletion, with a nearly doubling of normal concentrations surrounding the so-called “hole.”
http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/ozone_deplete/fig4.gif
But whenever someone looks at a map and asks the rational question –
“Why is ozone concentration so high in the area surrounding the so-called hole?“,
– there is never an answer.
That means it’s a good question.
Actually, the polar vortex changes gears at Antarctic sunrise, leading to the weak upward motion of air in the center of the vortex. It is only during this brief pause between gears that ozone concentrations change dramatically – and temporarily:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/08/new-rate-of-stratospheric-photolysis-questions-ozone-hole/#comment-570274
Ozone does not absorb UV heat. Oxygen absorbs the heat to form Ozone (very unstable) which releases heat in the colder surroundings and again forms stable Oxygen molecules. Ozone depletion before the extinction of human race is impossible. click on my name for details.
Perfect, now they say that the North and South Poles will warm the Earth.
Scientists, on the other hand, have long attributed a small cooling effect to the ozone shortage in the hole.
Now a new computer-modeling study suggests that the ozone hole might actually have a slight warming influence, …
If what was thought to have been a cool forcing is now asserted to be a warm forcing, then even less ‘global warming’ can be attributed to CO2 than was previously thought.
Khwarizmi says: August 8, 2013 at 7:52 pm
“Why is ozone concentration so high in the area surrounding the so-called hole?“,
– there is never an answer.
That means it’s a good question.
Actually, the polar vortex changes gears at Antarctic sunrise, leading to the weak upward motion of air in the center of the vortex. It is only during this brief pause between gears that ozone concentrations change dramatically – and temporarily:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/08/new-rate-of-stratospheric-photolysis-questions-ozone-hole/#comment-570274
Yes, the “ozone hole” is likely a result of the dynamical effect of the stratospheric polar vortex, along with the other “holes”, i.e. “The walls of the polar vortex act as the boundaries for the extraordinary changes in chemical concentrations. Now the polar vortex can be considered a sealed chemical reactor bowl, containing a water vapor hole, a nitrogen oxide hole and an ozone hole, all occurring simultaneously (Labitzke and Kunze 2005)”
http://books.google.com/books?id=B93SSQrcAh4C&lpg=PA283&ots=d0-uBRjmyI&dq=%22water%20vapor%20hole%22%20polar%20vortex&pg=PA283#v=onepage&q=%22water%20vapor%20hole%22%20polar%20vortex&f=false
There are also “measurements of low methane concentrations in the vortex made by the HALOE instrument on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite.” Rapid descent of mesospheric air into the stratospheric polar vortex, AGU 1993
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/93GL01104/abstract
For those not familiar, Polar Vortices “are caused when an area of low pressure sits at the rotation pole of a planet. This causes air to spiral down from higher in the atmosphere, like water going down a drain.”
http://www.universetoday.com/973/what-venus-and-saturn-have-in-common/.
“A polar vortex is a persistent, large-scale cyclone located near one or both of a planet’s geographical poles.” “The vortex is most powerful in the hemisphere’s winter, when the temperature gradient is steepest, and diminishes or can disappear in the summer. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex
“The ozone hole is in the center of a spiraling mass of air over the Antarctic that is called the polar vortex. The vortex is not stationary and sometimes moves as far north as the southern half of South America, taking the ozone hole with it.”
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/news/factsheets/HALOE-Ozone.html
Northern and Southern hemisphere ozone holes, slightly out of datel
http://www.rockyhigh66.org/stuff/ozone_hole_2011_NH.jpg
http://www.rockyhigh66.org/stuff/ozone_hole_2010.png
An actual consequence of the ozone hole is its odd effect on the Southern Hemisphere polar jet stream, the fast flowing air currents encircling the South Pole. Despite the ozone hole only appearing during the spring months, throughout each subsequent summer the high-speed jet stream swings south toward the pole.
“For some reason when you put an ozone hole in the Southern Hemisphere during springtime, you get this robust poleward shift in the jet stream during the following summer season,” said Grise. “People have been looking at this for 10 years and there’s still no real answer of why this happens.”
They appear to have this backward, i.e. what’s the dog and what’s the tail. As I noted above “The vortex is not stationary and sometimes moves as far north as the southern half of South America, taking the ozone hole with it.” It is absurd to think that a massive polar vortex, “they usually span 1,000–2,000 kilometers (620–1,240 miles) in which the air is circulating in a counter-clockwise fashion (in the northern hemisphere)”, is being driven by the decreased concentration of Ozone that occurs within it. It appears that the reason for Polar Vortices and the “holes” within them are “the same as any other cyclone, the Coriolis effect.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex
For reference, Polar Vortices and their “holes” have also been sighted on Mars;
http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/sixthmars2003/pdf/3248.pdf
Venus;
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/09/venus-polar-vortex/
Saturn;
http://www.windows2universe.org/saturn/atmosphere/south_polar_vortex.html
and Saturn’s Moon Titan;
http://www.space.com/16520-saturn-s-moon-titan-sports-polar-vortex-video.html
Gary Pearse says:
Here are the Japanese (JAXA) CO2 images:
September 2009:
http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2009/10/img/20091030_ibuki_2_e.jpg
July 2009 and January 2010
http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2012/12/img/20121203_ibuki_05_e.gif
August 2012
http://chiefio.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/jaxa-xco2_l2_201208010831average_v02_11.png
JAXA digital Archives:
http://jda.jaxa.jp/category_p.php?lang=e&page=6&category1=352&category2=&page_pics=50
Satellite image of changes in ozone distribution in the southern hemisphere. (All sorts of neat images)
http://jda.jaxa.jp/result.php?lang=e&id=ce47d4aa632c51c46cebbe5ff93b2f90
I too remember that prediction. You’d think it was made by somebody with a deep understanding of solar cycles. If it’s really the case that solar activity (particularly UV and EUV) is what determines the size of the ozone ‘hole’, then that would also fit:
20 years until stabilisation = 2009, around the start of SC24 and a very quiet year for solar activity. 50 years until recovery = 2039, around the end of what could be an exceptionally quiet SC25, according to some predictions.
Yep, if 30 years of low UV and EUV levels allow polar ozone levels to rise, that’ll validate the Montreal Protocol. If only an aggressive global CO2 emissions reduction plan could also have been agreed in 2009, that could also have demonstrated its efficacy over the subsequent 30 years…
keith says
50 years until recovery = 2039, around the end of what could be an exceptionally quiet SC25, according to some predictions.
henry says
this is exactly what I predicted from my own results
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
Luckily we do have measurements on ozone, from stations in both hemispheres. I looked at these results. Incredibly, I found that ozone started going down around 1951 and started going up again in 1995, both on the NH and the SH. Percentage wise the increase in ozone in the SH since 1995 is much more spectacular.
I have found three confirmations for the dates of the turning points of my A-C wave for energy-in. 1) my own results. 2) W..Arnold’s results. 3) the ozone results. The mechanism? We know that there is not much variation in the total solar irradiation (TSI) measured at the TOA. However, there is some variation within TSI, mainly to do with the E-UV. Most likely there is some gravitational- and/or electromagnetic force that gets switched every 44 year, affecting the sun’s output of E-UV. It is part of creation. Otherwise there could be run away warming or runaway cooling, and probably no weather (rain!) at all, making life impossible…..
However, a natural consequence of my a-c wave is that we are now hurling towards the point of zero acceleration of cooling somewhere @ur momisugly ca. 2016-2019 (the a-c wave could in fact be somewhat warped)
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/dust_storms.shtml
2014-88 = 1926
It looks like we could be about 5-7 years away from the start of these great droughts.
To get the switch to work (towards warming) is going to take some time…..that, and the reduced moisture content (due to the global cooling) is what causes the droughts.
Just The Facts says:
August 8, 2013 at 11:14 pm
“Now the polar vortex can be considered a sealed chemical reactor bowl, containing a water vapor hole, a nitrogen oxide hole and an ozone hole, all occurring simultaneously (Labitzke and Kunze 2005)
There are also “measurements of low methane concentrations in the vortex”
Khwarizmi says:
August 8, 2013 at 7:52 pm
“Even if it is wrong, the explanation offered by Gary Pearse is more sufficient than the CFC-depletion hypothesis,”
Gentlemen, you have just fulfilled my prediction based on Oxygen’s strong paramagnetism (attracted to magnet), all other atmospheric gases diamagnetic (repulsed by a magnet) from my posts above. Moreover, the effect would be enhanced in the cold of winter since cooling.
Gary Pearse says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:18 pm
“Further re O2 paramagnetism and O3 diamagnetics as an explanation for the hole, is there not data from satellites on the varying composition of the atmosphere? That would be pretty supportive if it showed my prediction that O2 ratio to each other atmospheric gas is greater in the hole than its other atmospheric friends including CO2….”
Check out also if the gas-ratio relationship is reversed in temperate-equatorial regions. Just the facts, you are seeing a barrier keeping these gases out, I think my theory is stronger that they are being shoved out. Hmm… “Pearse Effect”? See my fuller explanation and prediction at:
August 8, 2013 at 4:56 pm
Several points in that article overlap with my New Climate Model:
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/
What they don’t seem to realise yet is that an active sun reduces ozone towards the poles which cools the stratosphere towards the poles.
The colder stratosphere results in a more intense polar vortex in the vertical plane but contracts the vortex in the horizontal plane which pulls the entire global air circulation towards the poles.
The result is more poleward/zonal jets which reduce global cloudiness as they say and let more solar energy into the oceans for a net warming effect.
The opposite when the sun is inactive.
Naturally the effect is heavily modulated by the lagging ocean response.
From MWP to LIA to date the latitudinal shifts were in the region of 1000 miles in certain sensitive locations such as the western approaches to Europe.
If GHGs have a net warming or cooling effect then they would also modulate the solar driving force but to a far lesser degree than the oceans.
Maybe a shift of less than a mile from all our emissions
just so as everyone understands
trenberth calculated that ozone accounts for about 25% of all that is being back radiated (to space) by the atmosphere; but I think he actually forgot about the peroxides and nitrous oxides also being formed TOA. (trenberth’s missing energy?)
That means any “holes” allow more SW through, especially high energy SW – that which eventually heats the oceans, which are SH, mostly. The SH oceans are earth’s energy store.
So, yes, less ozone allows more energy in, but nothing to do with the wind, IMHO.
Hence me finding the correlation of increasing ozone versus dropping maxima.
A “quiet” sun does not mean a cooler sun, although, yes, a quiet sun does cause cooler temps. on earth,.
The half life of ozone at -50degrees C is 3 months – there’s your ozone hole. As soon as the sun goes down. and the UV rays stop producing more ozone. the ozone hole gets bigger until the sun returns. Tell me what’s wrong with this simple expalnation. Too simple?.
henry@barrie
I think you do have a point
– you mean the long night on the south /north poles – is what causes the holes…
but all of that is a given constant factor?
the variation in energy coming from the sun (when it goes quiet) is not
henry@Stephen Fisher
amazing, your picture here
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/
sums up nicely what I had figured out…..
it is exactly what I said, is it not? You showed in that picture exactly what I said in words:
namely.
As the temperature differential between the poles and equator grows larger due to the cooling from the top, very likely something will also change on earth. Predictably, there would be a small (?) shift of cloud formation and precipitation, more towards the equator, on average. At the equator insolation is 684 W/m2 whereas on average it is 342 W/m2. So, if there are more clouds in and around the equator, this will amplify the cooling effect due to less direct natural insolation of earth (clouds deflect a lot of radiation). Furthermore, assuming equal amounts of water vapour available in the air, less clouds and precipitation will be available for spreading to higher latitudes. So, a natural consequence of global cooling is that at the higher latitudes it will become both cooler and drier.