Observations From The WUWT Sea Ice Page

Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group – Click the pic to view at source

Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group

By WUWT Regular Just The Facts

Global Sea Ice Area, shown above, has remained quite average this year. However, this is not due to a recovery in Northern Sea Ice Area;

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

or Arctic Sea Ice Extent;

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – click to view at source

which are both still trending below average. Rather Global Sea Ice Area appears to be average due to the fact that Antarctic Sea Ice is trending well above average;

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – Click the pic to view at source

having been above average for much of the last two years:

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

It is difficult to draw any concrete conclusions from this, as we only have a 34.5 years of satellite sea ice measurements;

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source
Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

on an approximately 4,540,000,000 year old planet. However, there are some things that we can infer, for example in this Change in Maximum, Mean and Minimum Sea Ice Extent graph;

ssmi1-ice-area
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) – Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (ROOS) – Click the pic to view at source

there is a large decline around minimum, with a much smaller decline around maximum. The reasons for the large decline around minimum according to Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University are as follows:

“The average thickness of the pack ice has fallen by roughly half since the 1970s, probably for two main reasons. One is a rise in sea temperatures: in the summer of 2007 coastal parts of the Arctic Ocean measured 7°C—bracingly swimmable. The other was a prolonged eastward shift in the early 1990s in the Arctic’s prevailing winds, known as the Arctic Oscillation. This moved a lot of ice from the Beaufort Gyre, a revolving current in the western Arctic, to the ocean’s other main current, the Transpolar Drift Stream, which runs down the side of Siberia. A lot of thick, multi-year ice was flushed into the Atlantic and has not been replaced.” The Economist

There is ample evidence to support influence of Atmospheric Oscillations on sea ice, however it is that  “summer of 2007 coastal parts of the Arctic Ocean measured 7°C—bracingly swimmable” that jumps out at me, because of this current Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly map:

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) – Click the pic to view at source

which shows large coastal temperature anomalies in the Arctic. Does anyone know why is it so warm along the Arctic coasts? Per the large anomaly in the Western Hudson Bay, is that a sensor failure or is there another cause? And what’s going on along the coast of Russia along the Kola Peninsula and near the White Sea? If you look at these satellite images;

arctic.io – Click the pic to view at source
arctic.io – Click the pic to view at source
arctic.io – Click the pic to view at source
arctic.io – Click the pic to view at source

that bright blue area really doesn’t look natural. Kola Bay, which is to the West of the bright blue area, is “Contaminated with Hydrocarbons”;

Kola Bay of the Barents Sea is seriously polluted with oil products. That has been demonstrated by satellite monitoring of coastal areas of the Kola Peninsula and the Kola and Kandalaksha Bays areas, both of which are passageways for oil product transportation and in which near-shore zone facilities for hydrocarbon reloading, transportation and storage are located. According to the satellite-based monitoring data from the second half of 2011, oil slicks were detected on 60% of images of the Kola Bay. Spill-International.com

and a couple years ago in:

Kandalaksha Bay in Russia’s far northern Kola Peninsula, some 400,000 square meters of the coast and 200,000 square meters of the bay’s basin area had been polluted with oil products as a result of the May 7, 2011 accident – including a range of islands that are part of a local nature reserve. The oil slick spreading from Belomorskaya (or White Sea) oil bulk plant, a coastal facility in the town of Kandalaksha in Murmansk Region, was threatening hundreds of protected wild species inhabiting the Kandalaksha National Park, only a kilometer and a half away. Belonna.org

Does anyone know what the cause of the current bright blue area off of the Kola Peninsula is? Has anyone seen any studies on the potential impact of anthropogenic effluent, waste heat and oil slicks on Arctic Sea Ice?

To see more information on sea ice please visit the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page.

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Pamela Gray
August 4, 2013 2:33 pm

I would say that the polar jet is broken up and disorganized. Rather weak at the moment with incursions into the Arctic but not flowing across it.

August 4, 2013 4:39 pm

Pamela Gray says:
August 4, 2013 at 10:16 am
Possibly, it would be a double whammy if the strait were to be blocked by sea ice.
———————————————————————————————————-
You made me look up the current Antarctica sea ice extent. The first look shows the monthly average for July, which shows the normal, gradual increase towards South America. Then looking at the daily extent the ice has doubled it,s outreach towards the tip of SA in this month, and there is still 5 weeks till max. Looking back at the records and comparing this July to Sept and October of previous years, I do not see any previous years where the sea ice had pushed so far north as right now. It looks like close to 50% of that strait is now ice blocked. It will be the ultimate irony if our ‘sophisticated technology and climate leaders’ are about to get blindsided because of an advanced state of tunnel-vision disease. Unfortunately, their tunnel-vision could potentially be detrimental for many throughout the NH, as too many governments have become entranced by the global warming ‘menace’.

RACookPE1978
Editor
August 4, 2013 4:55 pm

Pamela Gray says:
August 4, 2013 at 8:47 am

I have speculated about this before. What happens if the Antarctic bulge of sea ice growing towards the southern tip of South America makes it all the way and connects to it? What will the quite cold circumpolar Antarctic Current do? Will it fully invade the Atlantic and eventually cool the gulf stream down? Will it end the invasion of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic thus cause a return of normal to above normal Arctic ice extent and area? Will it be the beginning of another interglacial catastrophic decades long extreme cold spell?

To this, and other questions you’ve raised about this current:
I don’t expect there to be any problem with the Antarctic Sea ICe blocking the circumferential current. The Antarctic Ice Shelves are very deep, and are “locked” (sort of) in pace because they are “extruded” out over a very large but shallow series of bays and (what would be if not frozen) estuaries. So, the very deep shelf ice rests on the bottom of the “bay” and is lifted up to a very high elevation because most of its weight is held up by land underneath. Sea ice, on the other hand, float on the water (is frozen from the water that holds it up) and so isn’t “connected” to anything at all. Put an ice cube in an open oven dish, then add 1/4 inch of water to the pan. The ice doesn’t float, right? Put that same ice in a glass 1/2 full of water, and only the top 10% of the ice “floats” above the water level.
Much further from the Antarctic coast, the shallow bays go away, and even further out, the Antarctic continental shelf goes away. The Antarctic sea ice, evn it were to freeze all the way across to Cape Horn, would not freeze “down” very far – 1 to 3 meters at most – and so the deep ocean currents would be unimpeded.
Not sure what the round-the-Horn shipping would do though. Maybe take that Northwest passage Al Gore keeps predicting? 8<)
Odd that people keep worrying about the "tipping point" of snow and ice up north at latitude 65 on the continents of Europe and Asia, when we've already got a very large increase in permanent sea ice "bigger than the state of Alaska" ALREADY present year-round at latitude 70, 69, 68 growing down towards latitude 65.

Nick Stokes
August 4, 2013 6:07 pm

justthefactswuwt says: August 4, 2013 at 4:12 pm
Thanks. The corresponding daily (still) information is here. You can rotate, zoom etc.

Nick Stokes
August 4, 2013 7:52 pm

JTF,
If you’re interested in the corresponding Antarctic movies, there are
50 day and
365 day.
You can select movies there, and link to any of them by using the number showing at the bottom of the selection part.

James At 48
August 5, 2013 3:34 pm

Is the Russian pollution intentional? There may be military / strategic reasons.

RACookPE1978
Editor
August 5, 2013 4:51 pm

justthefactswuwt says:
August 5, 2013 at 12:01 pm


Yes, I’ve added those to the Sea Ice page as well. I may also add an element or two to the ENSO page. Thanks again.

Thank you. But, are there any year-to-year charts of the Antarctic Sea Ice extents. Now only Antarctic sea ice area is displayed with a numeric delta-ice value and standard deviation- and that chart is only a 1/2 year. As is, that makes it more difficult to compare sea ice area from the Antarctic (1/2 year visible) to sea ice extents for the Arctic (1 year, 1.2 year, and 2 year visible charts, and many different charts available from different agencies.

RACookPE1978
Editor
August 5, 2013 5:15 pm

James At 48 says:
August 5, 2013 at 3:34 pm

Is the Russian pollution intentional? There may be military / strategic reasons.

Only incidentally: Chernobyl was deliberately designed to produce plutonium efficiently and cheaply – at the expense of safety and redundancy and protection such as containment domes and redundancies in protection systems and distance from towns (The reactor was deliberately ner the town and apartment buildings so the excess heat could be pipes over there) And the administrators turned off the protection systems anyway.)
But yes, all of those jobs lost due to EPA interfernces and excess money on the excessive federal interferences and burdens are not present in Russia/Soviet Union. So their economy could be better and more productive. But, are they safer or healthier? No.
Military effectiveness is harmed by the fed’s obsession with many rules and interferences – but their mismanagement of the military and its budget is far worse internally than what the Russians might gain by manipulating the Arctic pollution.

RACookPE1978
Editor
August 5, 2013 8:44 pm

Thank you for the reply. Definitely not any other plot that is “zoomed in”
We now have 4x annual Arctic Sea Ice extents plots, all with multi-year plots spanning a full year:
JAXA 15% Jan – Jan
JAXA 30% Jan – Jan
DMI 15% Jan – Jan
NORSEX 15% Jan – Jan
The Antarctic has one “zoomed in” sea ice extents chart: April – August
There’s one Arctic Sea Ice Area (2 yr Jan 12 – Jan 14, Which is incomplete obviously)
and one Antarctic Sea Ice Area (2 yr Jan 12 – Jan 14, also incomplete for 2013)
So, we can only compare “area” to “area” over a full year. Which may or may not have enough data to figure out what is going on.

James At 48
August 6, 2013 6:23 pm

Looking at North Pole cams. Sun angle is obviously getting very low now. Today there is a decent snow event under way, one of the two cameras is completely iced over. Obviously the snow is adding to the pack’s thickness from above. It could be a relatively high minimum as compared with recent years although perhaps close to the 2000s average.

Pethefin
August 7, 2013 1:34 am

Take a look at the new (!) DMI Ice chart: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Apart from the changes in the criteria (explained by the DMI in a note at the bottom of the plot), the plot sure looks interesting for the time being.

James At 48
August 7, 2013 7:53 am

RE: Pethefin says:
August 7, 2013 at 1:34 am
=========================
The late Summer “knee” in the plot is particularly prominent in that data set. It really flattened out.

RACookPE1978
Editor
August 7, 2013 8:12 am

Five weeks until the Equinox, which co-relates – but does not cause! – the minimum point of Arctic sea ice extents. Still too early to claim anything meaningful about this year’s minimum Arctic Sea Ice extents or area.
But, each day that the Arctic sea ice trend remains low makes it harder and harder to pretend that CO2 => Arctic air temperature over the ice => Ice melts.
Particularly since the DMI values for 80 north latitude – where the sea ice actually is melting and freezing – has slowly but steadil;y been decreasing since 1959. And is decreasing even faster the past 10 years when the Arctic sea ice loss rate has been the highest.

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