
Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group
By WUWT Regular Just The Facts
Global Sea Ice Area, shown above, has remained quite average this year. However, this is not due to a recovery in Northern Sea Ice Area;

or Arctic Sea Ice Extent;

which are both still trending below average. Rather Global Sea Ice Area appears to be average due to the fact that Antarctic Sea Ice is trending well above average;

having been above average for much of the last two years:

It is difficult to draw any concrete conclusions from this, as we only have a 34.5 years of satellite sea ice measurements;


on an approximately 4,540,000,000 year old planet. However, there are some things that we can infer, for example in this Change in Maximum, Mean and Minimum Sea Ice Extent graph;

there is a large decline around minimum, with a much smaller decline around maximum. The reasons for the large decline around minimum according to Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University are as follows:
“The average thickness of the pack ice has fallen by roughly half since the 1970s, probably for two main reasons. One is a rise in sea temperatures: in the summer of 2007 coastal parts of the Arctic Ocean measured 7°C—bracingly swimmable. The other was a prolonged eastward shift in the early 1990s in the Arctic’s prevailing winds, known as the Arctic Oscillation. This moved a lot of ice from the Beaufort Gyre, a revolving current in the western Arctic, to the ocean’s other main current, the Transpolar Drift Stream, which runs down the side of Siberia. A lot of thick, multi-year ice was flushed into the Atlantic and has not been replaced.” The Economist
There is ample evidence to support influence of Atmospheric Oscillations on sea ice, however it is that “summer of 2007 coastal parts of the Arctic Ocean measured 7°C—bracingly swimmable” that jumps out at me, because of this current Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly map:

which shows large coastal temperature anomalies in the Arctic. Does anyone know why is it so warm along the Arctic coasts? Per the large anomaly in the Western Hudson Bay, is that a sensor failure or is there another cause? And what’s going on along the coast of Russia along the Kola Peninsula and near the White Sea? If you look at these satellite images;




that bright blue area really doesn’t look natural. Kola Bay, which is to the West of the bright blue area, is “Contaminated with Hydrocarbons”;
Kola Bay of the Barents Sea is seriously polluted with oil products. That has been demonstrated by satellite monitoring of coastal areas of the Kola Peninsula and the Kola and Kandalaksha Bays areas, both of which are passageways for oil product transportation and in which near-shore zone facilities for hydrocarbon reloading, transportation and storage are located. According to the satellite-based monitoring data from the second half of 2011, oil slicks were detected on 60% of images of the Kola Bay. Spill-International.com
and a couple years ago in:
Kandalaksha Bay in Russia’s far northern Kola Peninsula, some 400,000 square meters of the coast and 200,000 square meters of the bay’s basin area had been polluted with oil products as a result of the May 7, 2011 accident – including a range of islands that are part of a local nature reserve. The oil slick spreading from Belomorskaya (or White Sea) oil bulk plant, a coastal facility in the town of Kandalaksha in Murmansk Region, was threatening hundreds of protected wild species inhabiting the Kandalaksha National Park, only a kilometer and a half away. Belonna.org
Does anyone know what the cause of the current bright blue area off of the Kola Peninsula is? Has anyone seen any studies on the potential impact of anthropogenic effluent, waste heat and oil slicks on Arctic Sea Ice?
To see more information on sea ice please visit the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page.
I would say that the polar jet is broken up and disorganized. Rather weak at the moment with incursions into the Arctic but not flowing across it.
Nick Stokes says: August 2, 2013 at 12:45 pm
Here is a movie of Arctic SST over the last 50 days. The warmth in Hudson Bay seems quite recent – started late June. The Barents Sea has been warm through that time. There’s a whole warm patch east of Iceland, and there are times when it seems to be moving as you might expect from the Gulf Stream.
The whole year is shown here. It was fairly warm in the Barents Sea throughout, except for a spell from about March to May. In the year movie, you can see the ice come and go.
These videos:
http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/sst-regional-movies-as-described-here-i.html?WxK=31
http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/sst-regional-movies-as-described-here-i.html?WxK=27
are very helpful. Firstly we don’t currently have any Arctic Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly maps on the the WUWT Sea Ice Page thus I’ve added links to these two videos to the Sea Ice Page, and may add additional elements to the Ocean page when I have opportunity. Secondly, the animations indicate that there are persistent coastal positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic for much of the year.
Sparks says: August 2, 2013 at 2:15 pm
Sparks says: August 2, 2013 at 11:56 am
But, would you know where I can find the satellite data going back to 1972 seen in this pdf?
The sea ice anomalies look very different.
…
This pdf: http://www.meto.umd.edu/~kostya/Pdf/Seaice.30yrs.GRL.pdf
Nimbus-5 ESMR Daily Polar Gridded Brightness Temperatures 11 December 1972 through 16 May 1977:
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0077_esmr_tbs.gd.html
Nimbus-5 ESMR Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations December 1972 through December 1976:
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0009_esmr_seaice.gd.html
National Ice Center Arctic Sea Ice Charts and Climatologies in Gridded Format 1972 through 2007. Weekly (1972-2001) or biweekly (2001-2007)
http://nsidc.org/data/docs/noaa/g02172_nic_charts_climo_grid/
Pamela Gray says:
August 4, 2013 at 10:16 am
Possibly, it would be a double whammy if the strait were to be blocked by sea ice.
———————————————————————————————————-
You made me look up the current Antarctica sea ice extent. The first look shows the monthly average for July, which shows the normal, gradual increase towards South America. Then looking at the daily extent the ice has doubled it,s outreach towards the tip of SA in this month, and there is still 5 weeks till max. Looking back at the records and comparing this July to Sept and October of previous years, I do not see any previous years where the sea ice had pushed so far north as right now. It looks like close to 50% of that strait is now ice blocked. It will be the ultimate irony if our ‘sophisticated technology and climate leaders’ are about to get blindsided because of an advanced state of tunnel-vision disease. Unfortunately, their tunnel-vision could potentially be detrimental for many throughout the NH, as too many governments have become entranced by the global warming ‘menace’.
Pamela Gray says:
August 4, 2013 at 8:47 am
To this, and other questions you’ve raised about this current:
I don’t expect there to be any problem with the Antarctic Sea ICe blocking the circumferential current. The Antarctic Ice Shelves are very deep, and are “locked” (sort of) in pace because they are “extruded” out over a very large but shallow series of bays and (what would be if not frozen) estuaries. So, the very deep shelf ice rests on the bottom of the “bay” and is lifted up to a very high elevation because most of its weight is held up by land underneath. Sea ice, on the other hand, float on the water (is frozen from the water that holds it up) and so isn’t “connected” to anything at all. Put an ice cube in an open oven dish, then add 1/4 inch of water to the pan. The ice doesn’t float, right? Put that same ice in a glass 1/2 full of water, and only the top 10% of the ice “floats” above the water level.
Much further from the Antarctic coast, the shallow bays go away, and even further out, the Antarctic continental shelf goes away. The Antarctic sea ice, evn it were to freeze all the way across to Cape Horn, would not freeze “down” very far – 1 to 3 meters at most – and so the deep ocean currents would be unimpeded.
Not sure what the round-the-Horn shipping would do though. Maybe take that Northwest passage Al Gore keeps predicting? 8<)
Odd that people keep worrying about the "tipping point" of snow and ice up north at latitude 65 on the continents of Europe and Asia, when we've already got a very large increase in permanent sea ice "bigger than the state of Alaska" ALREADY present year-round at latitude 70, 69, 68 growing down towards latitude 65.
captainfish says: August 2, 2013 at 5:54 pm
captainfish says: August 2, 2013 at 5:55 pm
Popular science says that the blue area is phytoplankton.
…
http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-08/big-pic-phytoplankton-bloom-north-atlantic-cold
Khwarizmi says: August 2, 2013 at 9:11 pm
“The milky blue color suggests the presence of coccolithophores, a microscopic plankton plated with white calcium carbonate, which when viewed through ocean water appears bright blue.”
http://e360.yale.edu/slideshow/nasa_images_of_2011/44/5/
So the beautiful blue is just the natural hue of the arctic water.
It definitely seems like it is algea/phytoplankton/coccolithophores, however I don’t know if I agree that “the beautiful blue is just the natural hue of the arctic water.”
These NASA articles offer good insight:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Coccoliths/
NASA Article 2:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=51765
justthefactswuwt says: August 4, 2013 at 4:12 pm
Thanks. The corresponding daily (still) information is here. You can rotate, zoom etc.
Nick Stokes says: August 4, 2013 at 6:07 pm
Thanks. The corresponding daily (still) information is here. You can rotate, zoom etc.
I’d argue that you are due the thanks for making the information readily available. I’ve also added your website to the Source Guide at the bottom of the Sea Ice Page. Thank you JTF
Nick Stokes says: August 4, 2013 at 6:07 pm
Thanks. The corresponding daily (still) information is here. You can rotate, zoom etc.
http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/blog-page.html
The rotate feature is great, it really gives you perspective. It is the first time I’ve noticed that all of the worlds large lakes, the Black Sea, most of the Mediterranean, the Sea of Japan, and many of the worlds bays and straits have significant positive sea surface temperature anomalies.
JTF,
If you’re interested in the corresponding Antarctic movies, there are
50 day and
365 day.
You can select movies there, and link to any of them by using the number showing at the bottom of the selection part.
Nick Stokes says: August 4, 2013 at 7:52 pm
If you’re interested in the corresponding Antarctic movies, there are
50 day and
365 day.
You can select movies there, and link to any of them by using the number showing at the bottom of the selection part.
Yes, I’ve added those to the Sea Ice page as well. I may also add an element or two to the ENSO page. Thanks again.
Is the Russian pollution intentional? There may be military / strategic reasons.
justthefactswuwt says:
August 5, 2013 at 12:01 pm
Thank you. But, are there any year-to-year charts of the Antarctic Sea Ice extents. Now only Antarctic sea ice area is displayed with a numeric delta-ice value and standard deviation- and that chart is only a 1/2 year. As is, that makes it more difficult to compare sea ice area from the Antarctic (1/2 year visible) to sea ice extents for the Arctic (1 year, 1.2 year, and 2 year visible charts, and many different charts available from different agencies.
James At 48 says:
August 5, 2013 at 3:34 pm
Only incidentally: Chernobyl was deliberately designed to produce plutonium efficiently and cheaply – at the expense of safety and redundancy and protection such as containment domes and redundancies in protection systems and distance from towns (The reactor was deliberately ner the town and apartment buildings so the excess heat could be pipes over there) And the administrators turned off the protection systems anyway.)
But yes, all of those jobs lost due to EPA interfernces and excess money on the excessive federal interferences and burdens are not present in Russia/Soviet Union. So their economy could be better and more productive. But, are they safer or healthier? No.
Military effectiveness is harmed by the fed’s obsession with many rules and interferences – but their mismanagement of the military and its budget is far worse internally than what the Russians might gain by manipulating the Arctic pollution.
RACookPE1978 says: August 5, 2013 at 4:51 pm (Edit)
Thank you. But, are there any year-to-year charts of the Antarctic Sea Ice extents. Now only Antarctic sea ice area is displayed with a numeric delta-ice value and standard deviation- and that chart is only a 1/2 year. As is, that makes it more difficult to compare sea ice area from the Antarctic (1/2 year visible) to sea ice extents for the Arctic (1 year, 1.2 year, and 2 year visible charts, and many different charts available from different agencies.
I am not sure exactly what you are looking for, e.g. do you want an Antarctic annual period graphed like this;
http://sunshinehours.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/antarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2013_day_216_1981-2010.png?w=1024&h=682
or this;
http://sunshinehours.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/antarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2013_day_45_1981-2010.png
or a long running Antarctic Sea Ice map like this:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHvrjX7AP-8&feature=related]
Note here’s the comparable for Arctic Sea Ice;
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6j8SGs_gnFk&feature=related]
If you want NSIDC Monthly Sea Ice Extent data that you can plot yourself the Antarctic and Arctic data can be found in the txt files here:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/
Also for reference, here is a comp of Arctic to Antarctic;
http://www.climate4you.com/images/NSIDC%20ArcticAndAntarcticSeaIceExtensionLastMonth%20JULY.gif
and here is another:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/seaice.anomaly.Ant_arctic.jpg
Please let me know if there is something more specific that you are looking for.
James At 48 says: August 5, 2013 at 3:34 pm
Is the Russian pollution intentional? There may be military / strategic reasons.
I’ve seen no information or evidence of intent, however the strategic advantages of Arctic Sea Ice decline are apparent, e.g.:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/business/global/16arctic.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
http://www.rosneft.com/Upstream/Exploration/arctic_seas/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/21/gazprom-arctic-drilling-delayed_n_1902538.html
Thank you for the reply. Definitely not any other plot that is “zoomed in”
We now have 4x annual Arctic Sea Ice extents plots, all with multi-year plots spanning a full year:
JAXA 15% Jan – Jan
JAXA 30% Jan – Jan
DMI 15% Jan – Jan
NORSEX 15% Jan – Jan
The Antarctic has one “zoomed in” sea ice extents chart: April – August
There’s one Arctic Sea Ice Area (2 yr Jan 12 – Jan 14, Which is incomplete obviously)
and one Antarctic Sea Ice Area (2 yr Jan 12 – Jan 14, also incomplete for 2013)
So, we can only compare “area” to “area” over a full year. Which may or may not have enough data to figure out what is going on.
Looking at North Pole cams. Sun angle is obviously getting very low now. Today there is a decent snow event under way, one of the two cameras is completely iced over. Obviously the snow is adding to the pack’s thickness from above. It could be a relatively high minimum as compared with recent years although perhaps close to the 2000s average.
Take a look at the new (!) DMI Ice chart: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Apart from the changes in the criteria (explained by the DMI in a note at the bottom of the plot), the plot sure looks interesting for the time being.
RE: Pethefin says:
August 7, 2013 at 1:34 am
=========================
The late Summer “knee” in the plot is particularly prominent in that data set. It really flattened out.
Five weeks until the Equinox, which co-relates – but does not cause! – the minimum point of Arctic sea ice extents. Still too early to claim anything meaningful about this year’s minimum Arctic Sea Ice extents or area.
But, each day that the Arctic sea ice trend remains low makes it harder and harder to pretend that CO2 => Arctic air temperature over the ice => Ice melts.
Particularly since the DMI values for 80 north latitude – where the sea ice actually is melting and freezing – has slowly but steadil;y been decreasing since 1959. And is decreasing even faster the past 10 years when the Arctic sea ice loss rate has been the highest.