Observations From The WUWT Sea Ice Page

Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group – Click the pic to view at source

Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group

By WUWT Regular Just The Facts

Global Sea Ice Area, shown above, has remained quite average this year. However, this is not due to a recovery in Northern Sea Ice Area;

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

or Arctic Sea Ice Extent;

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – click to view at source

which are both still trending below average. Rather Global Sea Ice Area appears to be average due to the fact that Antarctic Sea Ice is trending well above average;

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – Click the pic to view at source

having been above average for much of the last two years:

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

It is difficult to draw any concrete conclusions from this, as we only have a 34.5 years of satellite sea ice measurements;

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source
Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

on an approximately 4,540,000,000 year old planet. However, there are some things that we can infer, for example in this Change in Maximum, Mean and Minimum Sea Ice Extent graph;

ssmi1-ice-area
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) – Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (ROOS) – Click the pic to view at source

there is a large decline around minimum, with a much smaller decline around maximum. The reasons for the large decline around minimum according to Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University are as follows:

“The average thickness of the pack ice has fallen by roughly half since the 1970s, probably for two main reasons. One is a rise in sea temperatures: in the summer of 2007 coastal parts of the Arctic Ocean measured 7°C—bracingly swimmable. The other was a prolonged eastward shift in the early 1990s in the Arctic’s prevailing winds, known as the Arctic Oscillation. This moved a lot of ice from the Beaufort Gyre, a revolving current in the western Arctic, to the ocean’s other main current, the Transpolar Drift Stream, which runs down the side of Siberia. A lot of thick, multi-year ice was flushed into the Atlantic and has not been replaced.” The Economist

There is ample evidence to support influence of Atmospheric Oscillations on sea ice, however it is that  “summer of 2007 coastal parts of the Arctic Ocean measured 7°C—bracingly swimmable” that jumps out at me, because of this current Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly map:

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB) – Click the pic to view at source

which shows large coastal temperature anomalies in the Arctic. Does anyone know why is it so warm along the Arctic coasts? Per the large anomaly in the Western Hudson Bay, is that a sensor failure or is there another cause? And what’s going on along the coast of Russia along the Kola Peninsula and near the White Sea? If you look at these satellite images;

arctic.io – Click the pic to view at source
arctic.io – Click the pic to view at source
arctic.io – Click the pic to view at source
arctic.io – Click the pic to view at source

that bright blue area really doesn’t look natural. Kola Bay, which is to the West of the bright blue area, is “Contaminated with Hydrocarbons”;

Kola Bay of the Barents Sea is seriously polluted with oil products. That has been demonstrated by satellite monitoring of coastal areas of the Kola Peninsula and the Kola and Kandalaksha Bays areas, both of which are passageways for oil product transportation and in which near-shore zone facilities for hydrocarbon reloading, transportation and storage are located. According to the satellite-based monitoring data from the second half of 2011, oil slicks were detected on 60% of images of the Kola Bay. Spill-International.com

and a couple years ago in:

Kandalaksha Bay in Russia’s far northern Kola Peninsula, some 400,000 square meters of the coast and 200,000 square meters of the bay’s basin area had been polluted with oil products as a result of the May 7, 2011 accident – including a range of islands that are part of a local nature reserve. The oil slick spreading from Belomorskaya (or White Sea) oil bulk plant, a coastal facility in the town of Kandalaksha in Murmansk Region, was threatening hundreds of protected wild species inhabiting the Kandalaksha National Park, only a kilometer and a half away. Belonna.org

Does anyone know what the cause of the current bright blue area off of the Kola Peninsula is? Has anyone seen any studies on the potential impact of anthropogenic effluent, waste heat and oil slicks on Arctic Sea Ice?

To see more information on sea ice please visit the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page.

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Mungman
August 2, 2013 9:36 am

WRT western Hudson Bay that area is where most of the watershed from northwestern Ontario to the Rockies south to North Dakota empties into the bay. Most likely is an accurate reading of the warmer fresh water from Lake Winnipeg etc. entering the bay.

stewart pid
August 2, 2013 9:37 am

Anyone have some thoughts on the change in character after 2007 in the summer for the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Anomaly graph and the lack of the same sort of change on the graph of the southern hemisphere. I smell a rat … a data manipulation rat.

PeterB in Indianapolis
August 2, 2013 9:40 am

I have noticed that in the last 8 to 10 days or so, the rate of arctic ice “loss” has decreased dramatically, with very little melt the last week of July. It will be interesting to see if the rate of ice loss continues to be as slow between now and late September. I initially thought that we would have a minimum above that of 2012, but not by a whole lot.
If the rate of ice loss continues at the slow pace we have seen for the last 8 to 10 days, we might have a minimum more like 2005 or 2006, which would be quite interesting. Polar temperatures appear to be at (or just barely above) freezing right now, which is quite early.

dp
August 2, 2013 9:48 am

A single windstorm can destroy the extent by packing the ice while doing nothing to reduce the actual mass, so the real message is the 2013 average temperature record above 80º latitude over the melt season (seen on the WUWT Ice reference page). But what does it all mean? Even Kim doesn’t know.

Doug
August 2, 2013 9:50 am

PeterB, not only are the above 80N temperatures near freezing, but they have been below ERA40 since about May 1 of this year. Only twice have they come close or reached ERA40 this summer.

AndyG55
August 2, 2013 9:51 am
DCA
August 2, 2013 9:53 am

I’ve often wondered why the Arctic ice loss off he Russian coast was so much more than the Canadian coast. Warmists often say it’s Anthropolical and caused by fossil fuel but it’s not CO2 warming. I see what McIntyre means by “hide the pea under the thimble”.
Crichton’s State of Fear comes to mind too.

Drymar
August 2, 2013 10:15 am

Warm waters east of Kola peninsula are result of high pressure I guess. It has been sitting over the Barents sea to Kara sea over two weeks now. Lots of sunshine and warm continental air mass. For example city of Norilsk, located between Yenisei river and Taymyr peninsula, north of polar circle had couple of days ago a new all time high temperature record. No wonder if coastal waters had warmed.

wws
August 2, 2013 10:18 am

I have a prediction which I guarantee will be true: The amount of Sea Ice will…. fluctuate.

Foxgoose
August 2, 2013 10:21 am

The new version of the Danish dmi 30% plot shows a similar trend to the ROOS one –
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png

Pamela Gray
August 2, 2013 10:21 am

That lighter blue smear could be an algae bloom. Arctic waters and those nearby are rich with it.

TinyCO2
August 2, 2013 10:31 am

Algal bloom does seem the most obvious cause of the blue patch.

Latitude
August 2, 2013 10:31 am

“The average thickness of the pack ice has fallen by roughly half since the 1970s,”
The average thickness of the pack ice is slowly returning to normal since the 1970s..
…there fixed

Bill Illis
August 2, 2013 10:39 am

There has been very low melt rates in the last 3 weeks (after some very high rates in June and very normal rates in the first 5 months of the year).
Daily change in the sea ice extent from Jaxa and the NSIDC in 2013 versus other years back to 1972.
http://s13.postimg.org/77316qbtz/NH_SIE_Daily_Change_July31_2013.png
Clearly tracking to have a higher minimum this September than it has been in the past few years.
http://s24.postimg.org/ou36wjfkl/NH_SIE_July31_2013.png

Duster
August 2, 2013 10:45 am

I believe that as Pamela Gray suggests, the color may be an algal bloom or other biological effect. There was a recent major oil spill up there and there really are bugs that find petroleum tasty. They act more slowly in cold water. What I don’t see is why it seems to become denser toward Svalbard. The current maps for the Arctic seem to be flowing the other direction.

Bill Illis
August 2, 2013 10:53 am

There is a large algae bloom north of Norway at this time of year about 3 out of every 4 years.

Chris4692
August 2, 2013 10:54 am

Am having trouble with the concept of a “Western Arctic” Presumably the western part of a circle around the North Pole.

August 2, 2013 11:10 am

‘ me, because of this current Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly map:”
that’s NCEP. model, not data

PeterB in Indianapolis
August 2, 2013 11:25 am

Steven Mosher just did a great job of explaining the difference between models and data! (Although perhaps inadvertently). I wish he would have gone into a lot more detail about how the model is differing from actual observations, although I strongly suspect the model is biased quite a bit high compared to actual observations (since that seems to be the definitive trend with models having anything to do with temperature).

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
August 2, 2013 11:32 am

Slightly related post… Here in England we’re getting a great summer. However, when the sun is out it is VERY hot. As soon as the clouds roll in it ‘cools’ down to 24c. I’m 54 years of age, and seen many summers come and go, but I don’t think I’ve ever experienced the change in temperature between cloudless and cloudy skies as much as this year. We have cleaner air now, of course, and maybe that’s why. The last time we had a summer this hot was 2006, and I don’t remember such a marked difference between cloudy and cloudless skies. Anyone got any thoughts as to why – apart from cleaner air (allowing sun’s radiation straight through)?

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