IPCC Draft Lowers Global Warming Projections on Climate Sensitivity
“That report is going to scare the wits out of everyone,” said Yvo de Boer recently. He is a former United Nations chief climate negotiator and was talking about the forthcoming fifth assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). With two months to go before the assessment is to be published, however, one sign suggests it might be less terrifying than it could have been. [The draft IPCC report] seems to reflect a growing sense that climate sensitivity may have been overestimated in the past and that the science is too uncertain to justify a single estimate of future rises. If this does turn out to be the case, it would have significant implications for policy. —The Economist, 20 July 2013
The next United Nations climate report will “scare the wits out of everyone” and should provide the impetus needed for the world to finally sign an agreement to tackle global warming, the former head of the UN negotiations said. Yvo de Boer, the UN climate chief during the 2009 Copenhagen climate change talks, said his conversations with scientists working on the next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested the findings would be shocking. “That report is going to scare the wits out of everyone,” Mr de Boer said in the only scheduled interview of his visit to Australia. “I’m confident those scientific findings will create new political momentum.” –Peter Hannam, Brisbane Times, 7 November 2012
The wave of new evidence of low climate sensitivity has presented the IPCC with a dilemma. They could try to bluff it out, an approach that could be terminal given the widespread reporting of the new science in the media. Alternatively they could ‘fess up’. This too could be extremely damaging, but perhaps might not be the end of them. Being good bureaucrats they have gone for the option that is most likely to lead to their survival. –Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, 18 July 2013
At C02 concentrations of between 425 parts per million and 485 ppm, temperatures in 2100 would be 1.3-1.7°C above their pre-industrial levels. That seems lower than the IPCC’s previous assessment, made in 2007. Then, it thought concentrations of 445-490 ppm were likely to result in a rise in temperature of 2.0-2.4°C. —The Economist, 20 July 2013
Rapid melting of polar ice sheets may be due to short-lived natural events rather than climate change, scientists said. New research suggests more time is needed to predict the likely impact of global warming and ice loss on sea levels. –John von Radowitz, AFP, 15 July 2013
It is misleading, and just plain incorrect, to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally. It is further incorrect to associate the increasing costs of disasters with the emission of greenhouse gases. –Roger Pielke Jr., testimony to the US Senate, 18 July 2013
A paper published by the Danish Meteorological Institute finds a remarkable correlation of Arctic sea ice observations over the past 500 years to “the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity. A close correlation of high significance is found between the two patterns, suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate.” The paper adds to several others demonstrating that Arctic sea ice extent and climate is controlled by natural variations in solar activity, ocean & atmospheric oscillations, winds & storm activity, not man-made CO2. —The Hockey Schtick, 17 July 2013
Current general circulation climate models (GCM) to be used in the AR5 IPCC Report in 2013, fail to reconstruct observed climatic oscillations. The proposed empirical model outperforms the GCMs by better hind-casting the observed 1850-2012 climatic patterns. It is found that: about 50-60% of the warming observed since 1850 and since 1970 was induced by natural oscillations likely resulting from harmonic astronomical forcings that are not yet included in the GCMs. –Nicola Scafetta, Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change.
The science journal Nature said only last week that the global temperature standstill “is one of the biggest mysteries in climate science.” Just like in Monty Python’s Spanish Inquisition nobody expected the current standstill in global surface temperature. –David Whitehouse, The Observatory, 19 July 2013
Thanks to The GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser for this compilation.