It is looking more and more like a double sunspot peak for solar cycle 24.
Sunspot count is down again:
A similar drop occurred in radio flux.
The Ap magnetic index remains low, but is up 3 units from last month:
On July 1st, solar scientist David Hathaway has updated his prediction page:
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The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. |
Ian H says:
July 12, 2013 at 4:49 pm
Therefore there must be more solar outputs from sunspot activity than from normal solar
The cosmic rays are deflected out of the solar system by the increase of the solar magnetic field [not really in ‘power output’] in combination with the changing shape of the corona over the solar cycle. The basic mechanism is explained here http://www.leif.org/EOS/262766a0-HCS-Cosmic-Rays.pdf
Dan Murphy says:
July 12, 2013 at 1:59 pm
You seem to be willing to continue to engage others on the thread until all questions are answered or issues addressed – that is a significant donation of your time (obviously).
My way of paying something back to society for the support I have enjoyed over the years at taxpayers’ expense.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 12, 2013 at 5:01 pm
My way of paying something back to society for the support I have enjoyed over the years at taxpayers’ expense.
>>>>>>
Ma’am, can I get another barf-bag???
geran says:
July 12, 2013 at 5:32 pm
Ma’am, can I get another barf-bag???
That way you can keep your effluvia to yourself instead of spilling it here.
That is the purpose of a barf-bag–duh….
Thanks for the link Leif
geran says:
July 12, 2013 at 5:44 pm
That is the purpose of a barf-bag–duh….
So, look in the bag: perhaps you delivered, if so, rejoice.
I am rejoicing that someone that has sold out to the government funding is willing to revert to 12 year-old rhetoric.
geran says:
July 12, 2013 at 6:37 pm
I am rejoicing that someone that has sold out to the government funding
Perhaps you will step up the plate and provide some untainted funding. Gladly accepted. Or just keep the contents of your barf-bag to yourself rather than embarrassing yourself by displaying it here.
Perhaps you will step up to the plate and provide some detailed facts, as in FOIA. Gladly accepted. Your website is useless. It only glorifies your ramblings. Yet, as a publicly-funded employee, you have access to plenty of info. Please provide us with things you have unavailable to you. Such as TSI vs sunspots for X years in the past.
(And please, no more references to Vuk’s leg. I do not want to know about your sexual preferences. Nor does Vuk,)
Aside to others–sentence should read “Please provide us with things you have available to you.’
But, let’s see if he can figure it out….
geran says:
July 12, 2013 at 7:19 pm
Aside to others–sentence should read “Please provide us with things you have available to you.’
FYI, everything I use is available from the open literature to everyone.
I come across much filth directed my way on these pages, but you are in a class of your own. Happy barfing.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 12, 2013 at 4:49 pm
What it demonstrates is that if there is a 1024-yr wave that is not a pure sine-wave, then automatically the can be many other peaks [happen to match the ones claimed to be in the real data] so that these other peaks are not independent and that therefore the probability that there are all there by chance is not so astronomically small.
Leif, I don’t work with probabilities or statistical likelihoods to prove a fact, how is it that you are defending Steven and supporting fantasy.
You seem to me to be using a model to disprove a reality, my sincere apologies if this is incorrect.
Sorry leif, but you are the barfer. You are in denial. You think that you know it all. You imagine you come across much filth. In your mind, you are the abused. But, you are the abuser. You are the filthier, you are the trasher.
Think your comment about Vuk’s leg.
You may need to see a therapist.
geran says:
July 12, 2013 at 8:42 pm
Sorry leif, but you are the barfer
Well, who asked for a barf-bag? But it appears you have more coming, so make sure it is a big bag.
LMAO, the imp threatens….
geran says:
July 12, 2013 at 8:52 pm
LMAO, the imp threatens….
It seems your mouth is too close to what you are laughing off. But from filth, your comments are beginning to turn into entertainment. Can’t wait until the next installment.
Not the first time I have sent an elitist professor running…
geran says:
July 12, 2013 at 8:59 pm
Not the first time I have sent an elitist professor running…
keep it coming.
geran,
Calm down, Leif is on his funny half hour.
Sparks says:
July 12, 2013 at 9:09 pm
Oh, so we kwow….
Sparks says:
July 12, 2013 at 9:09 pm
geran, Calm down, Leif is on his funny half hour.
I say: let him. WUWT can serve as his therapist where he can continue to reveal all those lurid details about himself and his anger, frustration, and small nasty accomplishments. It is good for people to vent sometimes. And, as I said, it can be entertaining, just like people laugh when a circus clown falls down repeatedly.
Leif,
that’s lol funny.
Sparks says:
July 12, 2013 at 8:37 pm
You seem to me to be using a model to disprove a reality
The power spectrum of cosmic ray intensities with time has very many small peaks. Random noise also has such, and the problem is to separate the ‘real’ peaks from the ‘noise’ peaks. One way is to see which peaks correspond to a model or theoretical expectation. If ten such peaks are found, the chance that they are random instead is like tossing a coin and getting heads 10 times. That is if the peaks are independent [as coin tosses]. What my little example showed was that if you have just a single cycle which is not a pure sine wave, then that single cycle has harmonics that are not independent [as they all derive from the same underlying single cycle] and the fact as you have [say] ten of them is not a surprise and is not as improbable as 10 heads in a row.
Leif,
I think the solar system has a integral relationship with the sun.