Coldest Spring In England Since 1891

By Paul Homewood

Originally, it was thought to be the coldest spring since 1962.

Winter? Teesdale in County Durham blanketed in snow on May 23 in what is likely to be Britain's coldest spring since 1962

Winter? Teesdale in County Durham blanketed in snow on May 23 in what is likely to be Britain’s coldest spring since 1962

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2333312/UK-weather-Spring-coldest-50-years-average-temperature-just-6C.html

According to the Central England Temperature Series, England has just experienced its coldest Spring since 1891. The average mean temperature of 6.87C ranks the 31st coldest on records starting in 1659, and is 2 degrees lower than the 1981-2010 average of 8.9C.

image

The 5-Year average has dropped to 8.9C, a level commonly seen in the 1940’s and 50’s. Although the cold Spring has been due in large part to the exceptionally cold weather in March, which was the coldest since 1892, both April and May have also been much colder than normal.

CET Warmer/(Colder) v 1981-2010
March 2013 2.7 (3.9)
April 2013 7.5 (1.0)
May 2013 10.4 (1.3)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

The 12-Month running average continues to drop, and at 8.9C is well below the levels seen for the last decade, and 1.0C lower than the 1981-2010 annual average.

image

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William Astley
June 2, 2013 4:41 pm

Logically if the warmists’ assertions were correct: 1) the planet is warming due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 and 2) warming is a dangerous problem, the fact that the planet is now cooling should be impossible and if the planet is cooling the warmists should be extremely happy as cooling will result in all extreme weather ending.
Unfortunately for humanity the warmists were in correct on all counts. The greenhouse effect due to atmospheric CO2 saturates. The planet has started to cool and will significantly cool due to the solar cycle 24 slowdown – cooling phase of a Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle – and then (not sure what the delay will be before the solar magnetic cycle starts up. Should be time for discussion and appropriate action) we are going to experience a Heinrich event – which is capable of terminating an interglacial period.
It is assumed as Antarctic sea ice in 2012/2013 is greater than the 1979 to 2008 mean for all months and is greater than any period in the last 30 years, that there is cooling in the Southern hemisphere. Typically when there is a step change in climate there is media interest. To bad they are covering tornadoes 24/7 and waiting for a hurricane.
The warmists’ hypothesis that melting Antarctic sea ice or melting Antarctic ice sheet ice results in increased fresh water about the Antarctic which in turn results in increased Antarctic sea ice fails as there is an increased in sea ice for all months and the Antarctic ice sheet temperature has not warmed.
Nice try warmists. You guys need to come up with something creative to explain the cooling. Heat hiding in the ocean was a nice try.
Comment:
Warmists: What is the explanation for the cooling of the ocean in the same regions where Svensmark’s mechanism is most active? You guys need to come up with a back up plan if it becomes apparent the entire warmists hypothesis was in correct. Good luck with that. I would find it all very amusing and would take delight in rubbing in the fact that we have wasted billions of dollars on scams due to your mistake, if we were not going to experience a Heinrich event.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.30.2013.gif
Antarctic Sea Ice, 2013 compared to 2012 and compared to 1979 to 2008 mean
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png
Arctic temperatures are now cooling, returning to ‘normal’. Arctic sea ice will now ‘recover’, from the perspective of warmists who appear to not understand the consequences of a massive increase in sea ice: crop failures, draughts, increase in severe winter/spring storms and so on that is the result of a colder planet.
The following is a comparison seasonal temperature variation the Arctic above 80 degrees latitude.
2013
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Compare to 2012 (click on data at above site by year.)
Compare to 1986 (click on data at above site by year.)

Theodore White
June 2, 2013 5:16 pm

Our climate is cooling. That has been my long-range climate forecast for years now.
We are in the transition years between solar-forced global warming and global cooling.
The jet streams have become more equatorial; though we have had strong polar disturbances in the higher atmosphere last winter, which has allowed penetrating colder air flow that signified the cold Spring that the northern hemisphere has encountered in 2013.
Stephen Wilde is correct about the jet stream pattern change that took place about 2000-2001. He is right about the previous time where the warming correlated to more poleward-zonal jets to what we are seeing now, and that’s increasingly more equatorward and meridional jet flow.
It accounts for the powerful southern storms that struck the state of Oklahoma in the U.S., as well as the cold spring in most of North America and Western Europe.
The exceptionally cold weather in March, April and May 2013 have also been much colder and wetter than normal.
We will continue to see this kind of climate become more common the closer we can to 2017 and beyond. As of the time being, we have, according to my analysis, about 3-4 years, on the downend of solar-forced global warming as a new climate regime, global cooling, sets itself in place.
Theodore White, astrometeorologist.sci

observa
June 2, 2013 5:21 pm

How they must rue the internet for reminding them all about their dire predictions like Chief Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery at the tail end of a long General drought in Australia-
“Even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and river systems.”
and later trying to ‘elaborate’ after the floods came-
“As the soil warms up more of the rain that falls evaporates and less goes into the dams and the point that I was trying to make was that even the rain that was falling then previously that was able to fill the dams in future wouldn’t do that.”
and now Melbourne gets its wettest June day on record-
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/heavy-rain-to-end-autumn-in-melbourne-20130601-2nhwf.html
which is nothing to write home about since Europeans only settled Melbourne relatively recently compared to the original inhabitants for 30-40000 yrs-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Melbourne
People like Flannery will lecture you on the importance of recognising how long aboriginals were here and then get total amnesia about the extremes of weather they would have experienced. That’s the exquisite beauty of an oral tradition eh Tim? How’s the new waterfront digs on the tidal Hawkesbury doing mate?

catweazle666
June 2, 2013 5:24 pm

Of course, as any climate McScientist will happily inform you, Global Warming always happens somewhere else, usually somewhere uninhabited and with no temperature recording equipment.

June 2, 2013 5:25 pm

It’s warming here in Alaska, but only because I put on my winter coat and went out and split wood for the woodstove. Perhaps after all the cold related deaths in England the numbers now add up on the nanny state model? If enough people die we can make this socialism thing work folks…Any volunteers? You there with the glasses.

manicbeancounter
June 2, 2013 6:45 pm

One of the signals of spring time is the arrival of flowers. As average temperatures rise, flowers bloom earlier in the year.
England is famous for the bluebells that carpet many woodland areas in April. The bluebells in my garden and in Cumbria are in still in full bloom.
http://manicbeancounter.com/2013/06/01/late-bluebells-and-rhododendrons/

michael hart
June 2, 2013 7:06 pm

As I write, in the heart of Central England, there are only 206 shopping days left until Christmas.
Perhaps it is a good time to think about buying loved ones a sack of coal as a Christmas gift, with special emphasis on the elderly. Politicians and activists seem hell bent on denying them other cheap sources of heating and electricity.

thingodonta
June 2, 2013 7:47 pm

The Met office just won’t know what an accurate assessment of the facts is.

June 2, 2013 8:05 pm

Was the Met Office ever reliable.. England is cold, and if Durham is cold it must be colder in Scotland and the Hebrides. Live with it. Since air conditioning and central heating, Poms are becoming hot house flowers. Several years ago, a friends rellies came in November to Armidale NSW (colder here on the Northern Tablelands). They thought Australia was perennially hot and unfortunately it bleedin’ rained most of the time! Temps dropped as well. I returned from Cyprus in Feb 1963, it was one of the worst winters they had had since 1947. The Thames froze over at Windsor. Moving to Lincolnshire, I did not get out of my Sheepskin coat all summer, while climatising. When my baby was born, the months following the temps dropped to 28 deg.F inside. (No central heating and with a night time burning fire too- coal of course). Jack Frost patterns on the inside of the windows. So – remember those terrible snow drifts in Scotland and people getting stock and food dropped to them. Then the next summer we had water restrictions because it did not rain, just on hosing lawns and cars. Moved to Sydney, in November 1965, and quess what, water restrictions there too. If anything, expect colder temps and enjoy the warmth when it comes, and adapt accordingly.

Editor
June 2, 2013 8:07 pm

The CET monthly temps are now updated tthrough May http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat I ran a slope analysis on the anomaly, and it’s negative from July 1987 through May 2013. Those of you who want to follow the latest can get daily updates at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Alan D McIntire
June 2, 2013 8:14 pm

“Originally, it was thought to be the coldest spring since 1962.”
If it was the coldest spring since 1891, by definition it was also the coldest spring since 1962. Maybe your first sentence should have read “……..coldest spring ONLY since 1962.”

Stephen Walters
June 2, 2013 9:47 pm

This direct evidence goes again Svalgaard who has been saying repeatedly that the temperature record of 100 years ago is not matching the solar record.
The CET record is but one area of the planet, but that area’s temperature records go back 100’s of years. When comparing temperature records to solar output the Northern hemisphere receives the greater change in regard to temperature from solar forcing. Changes to the atmosphere that influence the AO and jet stream being the important players.

Jean Meeus
June 2, 2013 10:47 pm

In the June 2013 issue of the Dutch popular magazine “Zenit”, Rob van Dorland writes that the increase of sea ice near Antarctica is due to global warming.
You should know that van Dorland is a member of the IPCC. So what he writes is not surprising. You should not ask the Pope whether God exists: we know his answer in advance.
I presume that, if instead the antarctic sea ice were *decreasing*, van Dorland would see that as a proof of global warming, too.

richard verney
June 3, 2013 12:15 am

This year has been very cold accross much of Europe.
Just last night, I was speaking to someone where I am in Southern Spain and he said that it has been the coldest start to the year for about 200 years here in Spain. I do not know whether that is accurate but I do know that temperatures are about 2 months behind the ‘norm’ The nights are really quite cold notwithstanding all that increased back radiation from increased CO2 which should serve to keep night time temperatures up.
Unfortunately, the Uk government has not appreciated that climate is regional not global and the regional trend appears downwards given that CET has shown a drop of about 0.5degC this century (ie., more than half of the last century warming0 and winter temperatures have shown a drop of nealrly 1.5degC since 2000. Now I do not know whether that trend will continue but the UK government would be well advised to reflect upon the implications of such trend continuing for the next years (may be 10 to 20) and the implications of that for required preparation for harsh winters (keeping roads and airports open, and public transport working) and on the energy consumption.
No matter how much spin and how loud the warmists may shout, the harsh realities speak volumes as people perish and adequate heating becomes a luxury that fewer and fewer people will be able to afford due to increasinly high energy costs. Just throw some blackouts/rolling brownouts into the mix because of over reliance upon unrealiable wind, and the general public will be baying wanting to hold those responsible for the mess responsible for their actions.

Gareth Phillips
June 3, 2013 12:30 am

milodonharlani says:
June 2, 2013 at 3:11 pm
Gareth Phillips says:
June 2, 2013 at 2:59 pm
Leeks!
Symbol of Wales since the Dark Ages Cold Period.
Garethman, Good point, everything is about a month behind so I’m still sowing Spring crops, four rows of leeks sown this morning ( You can never have to many Leeks in the garden ) and on the advice of a great supporter of the consensus on climate change I have bought a large polytunnel which I’m hoping will once again allow me to grow exotic crops such as Corn and Tomatoes. Incidentally most supporters of the Skeptical Science view fully acknowledge it will get colder and wetter in many areas.

William Astley
June 3, 2013 2:10 am

It is interesting that the current observed cooling and wet weather is in the same regions that experienced the Little Ice age. (See below for a preview of what to expect next. It appears the 21st cooling will be more abrupt as the current change in the solar magnetic cycle was from a series of very, very active solar magnetic cycles abruptly to a special type of Maunder minimum.) The same regions of the planet that warmed in the 20th century are the same regions of the planet that warmed during the Medieval Warm period.
It appears the warmists have selective amnesia concerning the paleo climatic record. There are cycles of warming followed by cooling in the paleo record. For example, the Medieval Warm period was followed by the Little Ice age. There are nine (9) cyclic warming and cooling periods during the current interglacial period (the Holocene) and there are a further 14 more warming and cooling periods in the glacial period. (23 in total that can be tracked and the warming and cooling periods correlate with solar magnetic cycle changes.)
The warmists probably should have a plan B if it appears, events on the ground (significant worldwide cooling) proves their entire hypothesis was incorrect. There will still be climate change; unfortunately it will be the cooling kind. The media and the warmists need to avoid confusion when communicating to the public and noted we have changed from warming climate change to cooling climate change.
The following is the type of problem that we want to avoid.
“Historian Wolfgang Behringer has linked intensive witch-hunting episodes in Europe to agricultural failures during the Little Ice Age.[36]”
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
“Little Ice Age”
“The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period (Medieval Climate Optimum).[1] While it was not a true ice age, the term was introduced into the scientific literature by François E. Matthes in 1939.[2] It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries,[3][4][5] or alternatively, from about 1350 to about 1850,[6] ….”
“Europe/North America
The Little Ice Age brought colder winters to parts of Europe and North America. Farms and villages in the Swiss Alps were destroyed by encroaching glaciers during the mid-17th century.[19] Canals and rivers in Great Britain and the Netherlands were frequently frozen deeply enough to support ice skating and winter festivals.[19] The first River Thames frost fair was in 1607 and the last in 1814; changes to the bridges and the addition of an embankment affected the river flow and depth, … ….The population of Iceland fell by half, but this was perhaps caused by fluorosis after the eruption of the volcano Laki in 1783.[20] Iceland also suffered failures of cereal crops, and people moved away from a grain-based diet.[21] The Norse colonies in Greenland starved and vanished (by the early 15th century), as crops failed and livestock …. …. Hubert Lamb said that in many years, “snowfall was much heavier … ….Crop practices throughout Europe had to be altered to adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing season, and there were many years of dearth and famine (such as the Great Famine of 1315–1317, although this may have been before the LIA proper).[25] According to Elizabeth Ewan and Janay Nugent, “Famines in France 1693–94, Norway 1695–96 and Sweden 1696–97 claimed roughly 10% of the population of each country. In Estonia and Finland in 1696–97, losses have been estimated at a fifth and a third of the national populations, respectively.”[26] Viticulture disappeared from some northern regions.
Violent storms caused serious flooding and loss of life. Some of these resulted in permanent loss of large areas of land from the Danish, German and Dutch coasts.[24]
Antarctic
Kreutz et al. (1997) compared results from studies of West Antarctic ice cores with the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) and suggested a synchronous global Little Ice Age.[46] An ocean sediment core from the eastern Bransfield Basin in the Antarctic Peninsula shows centennial events that the authors link to the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period.[47] The authors note “other unexplained climatic events comparable in duration and amplitude to the LIA and MWP events also appear.”
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png
Australia
There is limited evidence about conditions in Australia, though lake records in Victoria suggest that conditions, at least in the south of the state, were wet and/or unusually cool. In the north of the continent, the limited evidence suggests fairly dry conditions, while coral cores from the Great Barrier Reef show similar rainfall as today but with less variability. A study that analyzed isotopes in Great Barrier Reef corals suggested that increased water vapor transport from southern tropical oceans to the poles contributed to the LIA.[53] Borehole reconstructions from Australia suggest that, over the last 500 years, the 17th century was the coldest in that continent,”

RESnape
June 3, 2013 3:04 am

No matter what the evidence depicts the UK still has a clown, namely Ed Davey (limp wristed Liberal) frothing at the mouth over yet more cuts in Co2 emissions. You know he and his acolytes have lost the argument when they descend into name calling!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22745578
Ralph E Snape

Another Gareth
June 3, 2013 3:05 am

Paul Homewood said: “And guess what the Met Office forecast?”
Reading that link, have they forecast virtually nothing? If you combine the middle 3/5ths of a distribution it will always appear more likely than either the bottom 1/5th or top 1/5th.

Mike jarosz
June 3, 2013 4:30 am

I’m starting to wonder how a country that has survived so long could allow itself to be tortured by a government that thinks the world climate( which they cannot effect) is more important than the quality of life of it’s citizens. Are none of the “finest hour” folks still around? People you don’t have to put up with this crap.Throw the bastards out.

Keith
June 3, 2013 4:33 am

Solar Cycles says:
June 2, 2013 at 3:09 pm
I’m still awaiting new research that will link this to arctic sea ice loss and increasing methane levels, come on there must be a correlation there somewhere.

There’s a correlation there, of sorts. March and early April 2007 was wonderfully warm in England, though the summer wasn’t great. In fact, early April was virtually the warmest part of the entire year. March 2012 was also very warm to the point of almost being hot. The summer that followed was virtually non-existent.
I take it you’re familiar with the subsequent Arctic sea ice minima?
The weather patterns that contributed to these years of hot early springs and cold summers may have some relation to the promotion of ice loss in the Arctic. If they do, it suggests that this year’s Arctic melt will start slowly and, if England warms up, might continue to retain more ice than for a number of previous years. I think last year’s ice loss will preclude a massive rebound in the September minimum to 1990’s levels, butmay well show quite a recovery on last year’s minimum.

Quantum
June 3, 2013 4:47 am

Hold the phone…according to Ms. Pope if the Greenland ice sheet melts that will raise the sea level 7 meters…over a period of 3,000 years. Let’s see now…that averages out to two and a third millimeters per year. But Al Gore, the National Academy of Science “rock star” and Nobel Prize winner strongly implied a 20 foot rise in what…ten years?
Other estimates for sea level rise for the next 100 years range over .2, .5, .6, 2, 4, 6 or 7 meters. Feels like chartists predicting the stock market but at least they have a very good understanding of the climate epicycles.
The apocalyptic man-made global warming catastrophists are half right. The science is settled but the climate isn’t.

June 3, 2013 4:49 am

Urban heat islands must have stopped working.

Philw(UK)
June 3, 2013 5:03 am

Re Mike jarosz says:
June 3, 2013 at 4:30 am
“Throw the bastards out” .. an replace with whom exaclty? LibDem, Tories and Labour all have the same policy with regards the ridiculous “Climate Change Act”

Michael Schaefer
June 3, 2013 5:37 am

Knowing the Alps quite well I say It doesn’t take much cooling to have glaciation to set in on a massive scale.
All it takes are some remnants of snow from last winter to survive a few short, cold summers in the high valleys of the Alps in a row and – voilà.