UPDATE: McIntyre discovers a serious flaw right away, more upside down Mann world – he writes:
In keeping with the total and complete stubbornness of the paleoclimate community, they use the most famous series of Mann et al 2008: the contaminated Korttajarvi sediments, the problems with which are well known in skeptic blogs and which were reported in a comment at PNAS by Ross and I at the time. The original author, Mia Tiljander, warned against use of the modern portion of this data, as the sediments had been contaminated by modern bridgebuilding and farming. Although the defects of this series as a proxy are well known to readers of “skeptical” blogs, peer reviewers at Nature were obviously untroubled by the inclusion of this proxy in a temperature reconstruction.
More here: http://climateaudit.org/2013/04/11/more-from-the-junior-birdmen/
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‘Charles the Moderator’ writes to inform us that there’s another multiproxy study published, with flat blade and a somewhat limp hockey stick combined with that “unprecedented” claim that has become almost a red flag for bad proxy studies when they are that certain. From the SI PDF file, it looks like it is another splicing study, where they have added CRU data to the paleo reconstruction using tree ring, ice core, and varve data.
I have to wonder though, about the insensitivity of the proxies in the past, that blade seems pretty flat.
Of course it is paywalled, so we can’t examine it in detail yet, but that hasn’t stopped the MSM from ramping up science by press release stories already. The small figure are from the Nature page on the paper.
Abstract:
Recent temperature extremes at high northern latitudes unprecedented in the past 600 years
Martin P. Tingley & Peter Huybers
- Nature 496, 201–205 (11 April 2013) doi:10.1038/nature11969Received 01 September 2012 Accepted 29 January 2013 Published online 10 April 2013
Recently observed extreme temperatures at high northern latitudes1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 are rare by definition, making the longer time span afforded by climate proxies important for assessing how the frequency of such extremes may be changing. Previous reconstructions of past temperature variability have demonstrated that recent warmth is anomalous relative to preceding centuries2, 8, 9 or millennia10, but extreme events can be more thoroughly evaluated using a spatially resolved approach that provides an ensemble of possible temperature histories11, 12. Here, using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis13, 14 of instrumental, tree-ring, ice-core and lake-sediment records, we show that the magnitude and frequency of recent warm temperature extremes at high northern latitudes are unprecedented in the past 600 years. The summers of 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2011 were warmer than those of all prior years back to 1400 (probability P > 0.95), in terms of the spatial average. The summer of 2010 was the warmest in the previous 600 years in western Russia (P > 0.99) and probably the warmest in western Greenland and the Canadian Arctic as well (P > 0.90). These and other recent extremes greatly exceed those expected from a stationary climate, but can be understood as resulting from constant space–time variability about an increased mean temperature.
Figure 1: Time series of temperature anomalies and centennial slopes.
a, Average land temperature between 45° N and 85° N (black), 90% pointwise (blue shading) and pathwise (grey) credible intervals20 (see Methods); the unweighted average of all available instrumental observations (magenta)
Figure 2: Warm and cold extremes.
a, The proportion of draws (see Methods) for which 2003 and 2010 were warmest, and for which the warmest year fell in the 1990s and 2000s. White shading indicates zero. b, The fraction of all locations for which years were warmest
Figure 3: Histograms of temperature anomalies and instrumental maxima for the period 1992–2011.
a, Histogram of temperature anomalies across locations, ensemble members and years for the interval 1992–2011 (blue); the simulated distribution of temperature anomalies, using median parameter values fitted over 1400–2011 (black)
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There are a number of SI files though:
PDF files
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- Supplementary Information (8.3 MB)
- This file contains Supplementary Figures 1-53 with legends, Supplementary Tables 1-6, Supplementary Discussion and additional references.
Zip files
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- Supplementary Data 1 (630 KB)
- This file contains the instrumental data sets used in the analysis, in both original form and standardized as described in the Methods, in Matlab and .txt formats. Also included is a short ReadMe document that describes the data files.
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- Supplementary Data 2 (716 KB)
- This file contains the tree ring density data sets used in the analysis, in both original form and standardized as described in the Methods, in Matlab and .txt formats. Also included is a short ReadMe document that describes the data files.
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- Supplementary Data 3 (218 KB)
- This file contains the varve data sets used in the analysis, in both original form and standardized as described in the Methods, in Matlab and .txt formats. Also included is a short ReadMe document that describes the data files.
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- Supplementary Data 4 (262 KB)
- This file contains the ice core data sets used in the analysis, in both original form and standardized as described in the Methods, in Matlab and .txt formats. Also included is a short ReadMe document that describes the data files.We are unable to host the Supplementary Code and Model output files and these can be found at the following link:- ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tingley2013/tingley2013.zipThese files contain a number of model outputs, available, where possible, in both Matlab and .txt formats. Also included are a number of Matlab scripts that manipulate the model output to reproduce the main features of the analysis, and a short ReadMe document that describes the data and files.
NZ Willy, you have a point. But there is an answer, which in former times was:
Praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition.
Perhaps some of us can offload Steve M and figure out how the LIA got disappeared.
Have skeptical climate scientists done a study of the Holocene Global Temps? JP
Has anyone with full-text access checked to see if there is an explanation for choosing 1400 as the start date, and whether any of the proxies extend back into the MWP?
TimO says:
April 10, 2013 at 5:23 pm
“I completely understand about temperature estimation. But the hairs on the back of my neck still stand up when anyone says they can tell me what the worldwide temperatures were to less than a degree 200 years before the invention of the thermometer….”
Tim, they don’t tell you what the temperatures were. They tell you what the proxies they’ve chosen suggest the temperatures were within the constraints of the methodology they’re using, and the statistical likelihood of error. That’s why Willis and others have rightly pointed to the importance of providing the data, code and sample outputs. JP
This is like playing “wack-a-mole;” as soon as one hockey stick study is wacked, a new one pops up!
crosspatch said @ur momisugly April 10, 2013 at 3:41 pm
Thanks Crosspatch! That comment made my day :-))))))))
Do you think Steve is going to wait 2 weeks to blow this one out of the water?
‘Unprecedented’ should be banned from the literature.
The amount of coffee I have had in the last hour since arriving at work is unprecedented since I woke up this morning, in fact since last night when I was also asleep. zzzzz.
It’s the Mann method! First flatten out any change in the past, and the graft on the unjustified, manipulated temp record Hansen produced. BOOM! You get published for the first time in years.
Now if they can just find a way to get rid of all that frozen and snow across the USA Midwest, the UK, Germany, Russia, ….
They have made a rather horrid fault of “doubling down” right when the Average Joe is saying “What the… I’m freezing here!”
Just put their Hokey Stick up next to the reports of “Coldest in 100 years” and ask The Folks which one is frosting their shorts…
Is that graph showing a +1.0C rise since the mid-70s?
Not even GISS suggests that.
Willis Eschenbach says:
April 10, 2013 at 4:07 pm
“…And for those who think that the skeptics are having no effect, through unrelenting pressure from the skeptical community, the journals and the authors are starting to actually follow the scientific method, providing the necessary transparency to replicate their results.”
*
Thanks, Willis. Sometimes I really wonder, you know? Your words are soothing to me and I appreciate them. You’re right, of course. The MSM is waking up, too, and beginning to ask tough questions. It’s all good – it’s just that sometimes it seems to take so long. I know, it’s a big beast and it’ll take some time yet. I have to keep reminding myself it’s happening. Statements like yours help me realize, yes it is. Thank you.
It looks more like a graph of Northern Hemisphere UHI in major cities than anything else. This is yet another job for Climate Audit and Steve McIntyre’s bogus statistical detector.
CET record and NH extratropics record do match very well for 1850-present period, so CET is a valid proxy for NH back to 1659. In CET, there is abrupt warming between 1690-1740, being twice the modern warming and reaching almost present levels. It is nowhere to be seen in this hockey stuff. Wake me up when some realistic proxy record will be available.
Mulligatawny Proxies
Mulligatawny soup is made from a number of ingredients of differing color and taste that when combined give a uniform color and taste. These latter attributes can be altered by selecting the ingredients and their proportions or adding cream etc to the finished product.
Like the ingredients in Mulligatawny soup, climate is not global or regional but zonal and sub-zonal – that is why we can describe the end result in terms of the Köppen–Geiger climate classification system that reflect temperature, precipitation, altitude, latitude and surface effects. For temperature and precipitation it is not just local effects that count but more distant ones via teleconnections.
The available ice core, tree and varve proxies only reflect the climate in the zone or sub-zone where they are situated and can only reasonably be compared with the recent temperature data for that zone (the added cream) – global values are like making Mulligatawny soup from them to give the “desired taste” but have little meaning. They only confuse the situation, as well as the IPCC and those alarmist climate scientists that produce them in believing they reflect some global effect of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide – whereas the effects of CO2 are also zonal and sub-zonal via its effect on vegetation as the satellite data shows.
The boundaries of the climate zones and sub-zones change over time with variation in solar activity and the inclination of the Earth’s axis. For example the switch 5000 years ago of the Sahara and areas of the Middle East to desert zones and the movement south of the northern tree line. Thus, over a time span of the thousands of years used in these proxy studies the results at the boundaries represent a mix of temperature and precipitation changes of several zones and cannot be compared with current temperatures. Yet many of the proxy studies do sample the boundaries.
http://oi47.tinypic.com/290yfx2.jpg
The above chart with scaled 45-85 NH CRUTEM and CET data. The last blade seems identical both with NH instrumental record and CET as well, but the previous period is much flatter than CET, missing warming and cooling periods comparable or more pronounced than the recent one.
See CLIMATE AUDIT
I too am extremely sceptical of proxies because of the difficulty of extracting the desired signal (the response to temperature changes) from the noise (the general response to favourable environmental conditions in general which temperature is but one factor and often not the dominate factor).
There are further problems with resolution, response, calibration and tuning. All of these give huge error bars which do not appear to be acknowledged.
As a consequence I consider that proxy studies are nearly worthless, especially if on is seeking to draw a comparison with todays temperatures obtained from the high resolution thermometer record (which is not a like for like comparison).
Today’s warming appears mainly routed in the Northern Hemisphere and milder winter temperatures, especially night time temperatures. It may well be the case that old proxies fail to detect such changes if those changes had occurred in similar fashion in the past and hence one reason why the stick may be rather flat. These changes are being detected by high resolution thermometers but may not lead to a change in growth patterns of old proxies and hence not be detected when the old proxy data is reviewed.
There is some debate as to whether the MWP was global or not. However, it is quite possible that it was more dominant in the Northern Hemispher than in the Southern Hemisphere just like the warming is today. Possibly because of southern ocean damping and the larger land mass in the north.
Wasn’t it Michael Mann who said that no serious scientist had ever attached thermometers data into a reconstruction by proxies?
A.D. Everard says: April 11, 2013 at 12:03 am
“…Thanks, Willis. …You’re right, of course. The MSM is waking up, too, and beginning to ask tough questions….”
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This is because of the present financial crisis and rising energy costs. The journalists are beginning to appreciate that high energy costs is causing fuel poverty for the consumer and creating all kinds of difficulties for industry. Industry in developed nations is struggling to compete with that of developing nations partly because of high energy costs.
MSM has appreciated that shale gas has revitalised the US, and whilst its economic recovery is sluggish, such recovery as there has been is largely powered on the back of shale. Europe is beginning to appreciate that it cannot compete with the US (let alone with developing nations) because of the divergence in energy costs. In the US the gas spot price is 4 to 5 times lower than in Europe. The realisation is beginning to dawn that Europe will not be able to recover if shackled by high energy costs. Europe does not have a workable energy policy, only a green policy!
Coupled to all of this has been the recent spate of bad winters (the CET winter temperatures have fallen by a staggering 1.5degC this century). Global warming may have stalled, but winter temperatures in Europe is dropping and dropping fast. This is causing all sorts of problems. Placing a strain on an over strained power generating system which has been closing many reliable coal powered stations and being too reliant on unrelaible and costly green energy which people and business alike cannot afford. It has also played havoc with farming. In the UK (particlarly Scotland and Wales) live stock farmers are really struggling with many live stock deaths. This will put up the price of food (bad for the consumer) even if it does not force the farmer out of business (even worse for the consumer).
The newspapers are full of these largely economic stories but on the back of these stories is the ever growing realisation that the world is no longer warming, so what has happened to global warming?
Incidently, the difficulties that farmers have recently encountered with harsh winter conditions just illustrates how much warmer the MWP must have been than today for the Viking farmers and setllers to have settled in Greenland for several hundred years. There is no way they could have survived in Greenland for so long, had farming just been on the cusp of survival. It must have been a time of plenty to have enabled them to come through the odd one or two bad winters which must have inevitably occurred. I consider that the temperatures in high northern latitutes must have been very considerably warmer than today for the Vikings to have survived so long. It would appear that these more benign conditions were not limited to in and around Greenland in view of the evidence of Viking transatlantic crossings.
Some of the terms used in this paper are cause for concern.
“These and their recent extremes greatly exceed those expected from a stationary climate, but can be understood as resulting from constant space-time variability about an increased mean temperature.”
This paragraph in particular could not have been written by a scientist without the aid of lsd, or a propagandist.
This suggests that all over the world every day for many hundreds of years has been a pleasant 14.7C and a 1013 mb and only recently we have suffered weather.
It would also seem that CO2 can alter the space-time constant or is it continuum and cause the temperate on Earth to rise.
I would like to know where these people were educated so I can avoid the place.
A scarry graph for a scarry headline, that is its objectives not furthering science and like many BS claims before it the job is sadly done . The IPCC will lap it up has ‘proof ‘ without spending 1 second checking the facts and gravy train rolls on .
Stephen Richards says:…See CLIMATE AUDIT http://climateaudit.org/2013/04/11/more-from-the-junior-birdmen/
Chuck L says:
April 10, 2013 at 7:30 pm
One for Josh there: the ‘whack-a-mole hockey sticks’!
Someone please tell me again: Why is it that we cannot have proxy records right up to the present day? I recall that there is some reason why we cannot rely on them in the present. But if valid proxy records to the present do exist, and if they fail to show an increase, isn’t that the real story?