Guest post by Dr. Norman Page
1. Methods and Premises
My approach to climate science is based on Baconian empirical principles as presented in a series of earlier posts on this site (http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com) notably:
6/18/10 Thirty Year Climate Forecast
7/19/12 30 Year Climate Forecast -2 year Update
10/30/12. Hurricane Sandy-Extreme Events and Global Cooling
11/18/12 Global Cooling Climate and Weather Forecasting
1/4/13 Response toWUWT post on Neutrons and 1970 cooling period.
1/22/13 Global Cooling Timing and Amount
2/18/13 Its the Sun Stupid – the Minor Significance of CO2
From the data and papers linked to on these earlier posts I have drawn on a few basic premises on which the new forecasts rely.
1 .The IPCC climate models on which the entire CO2 phobia depends ignore basic common sense and show poor scientific judgement and so were, and are, so badly structured as to be inherently useless for temperature prediction. Climate sensitivity to doubling CO2 is probably 1 degree or less. The GH analogy conceptually misleads both the climate scientists and the general public. A much better analogy for the atmosphere is an holey insulating blanket with holes of varying size at differnt times according to the size and number of Tropcal Cyclone convection cells. These holes provide a substantial variable negative feedback to warming which is not included in the climate models. see Trenberth
2.The best way of distinguishing the main climate trends and drivers is by power spectrum and wavelet analysis of any time series which might be pertinent and correlation of these power spectra to distinguish forcings and feed backs.
3.A small number of time series are useful proxies for and can usefully and economically represent the trends in and the drivers of a large proportion of the past global climate variabilty and point the way to the likely future.It is not necessary to know the precise mechanisms and time series interactions which produce these time series observations in order to use them for successful prediction.
4.The present analysis which looks ahead to 2042 and 2106 is based on a few simple ideas and empirical observations..
a) There has been no net warming since 1997 with CO2 up 8+% .Global Temperatures have been declining since 2003-4 The period from 2003- 2005 represents a peak in both the 60 year PDO cycle and in a millennial solar cycle.
b) Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans and the more extreme regional high frequency variability of the land data the Global SST data are the most useful representation of the overall global climate trend.
c)Not withstanding b) above and indeed because of the greater variability of the NH temperatures the currently most useful representation of temperature trends over the last millennial solar cycle for practical and conceptual purposes ie hockey stick or non hockey stick is
Christiansen and Ljungqvist 2012 fig5 at:
http://www.clim-past.net/8/765/2012/cp-8-765-2012.pdf see Fig1 below. – describe it how you will
d) It is not unreasonable to suggest that temperature trends from 2000 – 3000 AD could well repeat the pattern of trends from 1000- 2000. AD
e)The temperature trends in the first +/- 100 years after the peak are likely to be the reverse of the trends in the +/- 100 years before the peak and the Hadsst3 data set Figs 2 and 3 is a generally accepted representation of the latter trend.
f)The main climate driver is the sun . Incoming solar radiation is modulated by the Milankovitch orbital cycles and by variations in solar “activity” manifested by changes in GCR flux at the earth,by changes in EUV radiation, changes in the frequency and energy of CMEs and Proton events ,changes in solar wind speed and changes in TSI.Incredibly ,only the small TSI change is considered in the IPCC models-.The change in albedo caused by the GCR- cloud iris effect and the change in atmospheric chemistry caused by UV variations are probably more important than TSI itself.
g)A lunar influence is also evident in the temperature power spectrum.
h )The Neutron count can act as a useful proxy for solar “activity” particularly as the instrumental data can be projected back via the 10Be flux for millions of years..
2.Analysis and Forecast.
This post provides a revised version of the post on 1/22/13 “Global Cooling Timing and Amount (NH)” In this earlier post future temperature changes were estimated with reference to Christiansen and Ljungqvist 2012 fig5
FIG 1
Here I make the same assumption that the current temperature peak is an approximate repeat of the +/- 1000 AD solar cycle related temperature peak (Fig1 ) .The simplest assumption for trends following the peak is that the downslope to about 2650 AD may well look like the downslope from 1000 to1650.Naturally predictions beyond the 30 years which coincides with a PDO declining temperature trend would be increasingly more speculative.
Using the HADSST 3 data as a go-by (figs 2 and 3) produces the following estimates .
Fig 2
Hadsst 3(blue) and 2 (red) Feb 2013 from http://www.climate4you.com/Text/Climate4you_February_2013.pdf
The rising trend peaks out at 2003-5 Fig2..A rise occurred from 1975 – 2003-5. We might therefore look for a similar cooling from 2005 to 2035 The average peak temperature has an Hadsst 3 anomaly of about +0.38 . The rise from 1975 was from about -0.15 to +0.38 = +0.53 . and thus we might look for a similar decline in global SSTs temperatures to – 0.15 by 2035. This would coincide well with the current 30 year cooling phase of the PDO. More speculatively we might similarly estimate a recovery to + 0.1 by about 2060 followed by further Global cooling to – 0.5 by 2100 – equivalent to the 1910 temperature.
See the Hadley chart Fig3 below from http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadSST3.pdf
Fig 3
Of course these numbers relate to the general trend- during the downtrend we would expect higher frequency variabilty in temperature highs and lows to the same extent as seen in Fig 2. but both would generally decline until 2035.
These forecasts and trends are generally consistent with the broad trends in the Oulu neutron count since 1964 Fig4 which I suggest may well be considerd as a key Solar Activity Proxy — SAP. It seems that there is a +/- 12 year lag between the SAP and the temperature. see Fig3 in Usoskin et al
http://www.clim-past.net/8/765/2012/cp-8-765-2012.pdf
The decline in the count minima from solar cycles 20-22 ie from 1969 – 1991 corresponds roughly to the temperature rise from the early 1980s to the 2003-5 temperature peak . It also matches well with the increase in the count of hours of sunshine during the same period dicussed by Wang et al
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/9581/2012/acp-12-9581-2012.pdf
which may well represent an open phase of the iris effect.
The relatively higher counts at the cycle 23 and especially the cycle 24 neutron minima troughs (solar cycle SSN peaks) suggest a continuing downtrend in temperatures to at least 2024.
There was a secular change in the related Ap index in 2004-5 which could presage a sharp temperature drop in about 2016-17 and the Oulu data show an increase in the neutron count also in 2004- 5 which might indicate the same thing and which is alredy built in to the system.
Fig 4
It is possible that the record 20th century peak in the 2009 count might indicate a real cold snap in 2021-22.
3. Summary
- Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
- Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
- Built in cooling trend until at least 2024
- Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 – 0.15
- Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 – 0.5
- General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
- By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.
- The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
- Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.
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Dr. Norman Page has a PhD in Geology, and runs a consulting business in Houston, TX
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“It is possible that the record 20th century peak in the 2009 count might indicate a real cold snap in 2021-22.”
cold snap, n: (Earth Sciences / Physical Geography) a sudden short spell of cold weather Collins English Dictionary
It is imprecise to refer to anything longer than a few days as “a cold snap.”
I fear it may well be a best case scenario – but hope you are right. The Met Office it seems are now saying the UK (the world’s best predictive thermometer) has had the coldest spring in 200 years. This makes it a Dalton Spring when the globe sits atop the peak of both solar cycle 24 and the AMO. It is downhill all the way now with just a couple of years of other natural variations left to stave off the abyss.
Stay Cool!
Why aren’t there more papers documenting the lunar impact on temperatures. It seems like there would exist straightforward datasets to establish this correlation? We can correlate the sun with temperature very effectively.
Now this is scary. Sorry warmists/environistas but your sky is really going to fall.
I wonder how Al is going to make money on it.
“Baconian empirical principles”
Do you prefer Hickory or Apple wood for smoking? 😀
Reblogged this on acckkii.
For those of us in the UK this does not sound good. If this is best case scenario, and a Maunder Minimum is possible, how far away is a full scale ice age?
Is it technically possible to reverse the albedo trap which would cause an ice age? Probably not, how do you darken millions of square miles of snow?
While a more realistic outlook than the warmists provide, it is not any more welcome. I think I might emigrate.
Interesting but problematic. Weather, and by logical extension climate, is a non-linear dynamic system in the precise mathematical sense. Specifically, it contains feedback loops (non-linear) like water vapor and clouds, and these have time lags (dynamic). All such systems are mathematically chaotic, as meteorologist Ed Lorentz showed many decades ago. That means the math models have certain inherent features. One is sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the butterfly effect) which means that no matter how accurate your initial inputs, predictions soon go awry from eventual reality. CAGW is an example. Second is onset of ‘chaos’ that is fully deterministic yet mathematically ‘random’ and unpredictable. Although in N-1 dimensions, ‘chaos’ follows strange attractors. milankivitch cycle oscillations between glacial and interglacial periods may be one such manifestation of a climate strange attractor.
But this means that signal/ noise extraction techniques (power spectra, wavelets, Fourier transforms, high and low pass filters…) have little hope of shedding much actual light on decadal or centennial climate forecasts.
The best that can be hoped for is better input data (satellite temps replacing error prone ground stations with all the problems documented by WUWT), or better models with more precise physics at finer resolution. The former suggest less warming, the later suggest less sensitivity.
But it is in the essence of chaos theory that neither improvement direction, nor your methods, can reliably predict a tipping point into a next Little Ice Age (or into a Big one).
Regards
I predict that within a decade, alternative energy sources will have begun to replace fossil fuels with their concommitant contribution of CO2 for warmth and increased foodstuff production. As a consequence, those benefits will start to reverse, causing more problems world-wide. The next two decades should prove to be very difficult for humans, especially those already living in subsistence conditions.
Dr. Page, Robert Felix, has written about talks with the late Jack Sauers. Mr. Sauers claimed that, that ice ages begin first in the European area, then extend to the northeastern part of North America, and finally to the more western parts of North America. is Mr. Felix’s memory correct and if so where could a layman find such information? Thank you for your article.
When she [Leona Marshall Libby] and Pandolfi project their curves into the future, they show lower average temperatures from now though the mid-1980s. “Then,” Dr Libby added, “we see a warming trend (by about a quarter of 1 degree Fahrenheit) globally to around the year 2000. And then it will get really cold – if we can believe our projections. This has to be tested.”
How cold? “Easily one or two degrees,” She replied, “and maybe even three or four degrees. It only takes 10 degree to bring on an Ice Age.” St. Petersburg Times Jan 1, 1979
i NEVER UNDERSTOOD THE USE OF CLIMATE MODELS SINCE IF CLIMATE CHANGES FALLS UNDER CHAOS THEORY AND ACCORDING TO WIKIPEDIA COMPUTER PROGRAMS CANNOT PREDICT FUTURE EVENTS OF CHAOTIC SYSTEMS .THE EMPERICAL APPROACH IS THE ONLY PRACTICAL WAY TO PREDICT FUTURE CLIMATE EVENTS WITHIN PROBABLE LIMITS. BOBPRUD
[Reply: Please, do not use all-caps. Thanks. — mod.]
This has cheered me up no end. If this has to be the price we pay, to see the cAGW camp followers put out to grass, I’d best see that my family learns to use snow shoes.
It’ll take quite some time before I’ve parsed all your arguments and data. But let me say from the outset that I’m skeptical.
I’m freezing my butt off ploughing through ice on the river Elbe when it should be warm spring by now. It may be a blip, but even my beliefs as a self confessed warmy are being sorely tried.
The heading says “Testable Decadal Predictions”
Is there any way of testing them, other than waiting a decade?
Just read this:
http://www.businessinsider.com/james-hansen-climate-activist-retires-nasa-2013-4
Now, what did they say about UK Spring arriving earlier and earlier? This year spring looks set to be colder than winter!
Warning: some disturbing winter imagery. 😉
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2301851/UK-Weather-Spring-set-chillier-winter-time-38-YEARS.html
“Coldest Easter Sunday on record, Met Office confirms”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21988278
Stay off the marijuana.
North and South Hemisphere often move in a counter-phase, hence it is more appropriate to look initially at each separately, and if common factors are found, then to draw an appropriate global conclusion.
For some time I have studied the N. H.’s natural variability; various data are pointing to cooling in the forthcoming decades.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NH-NV.htm
I should think 5 years would give a good indication .If we’re not averaging 0.1 to 0.2 cooler by 2018 I’d need to think again.
Given the laws of physics and chemistry and the energy density of green energy sources, I don’t see large scale implementation of the green energy sources except through legislative or regulatory fiat. They just aren’t competitive on the market, although I do expect them to become more competitive with each passing year.
The thing of it is, there is more oil and gas available than anybody ever dreamed of and each year the technology to extract it becomes more affordable as well. O
how do you darken millions of square miles of snow?
Bring back the hundred million plus coal and wood burning hearths and stoves that existed 60 years.
Mike Jonas says:
April 2, 2013 at 1:06 pm
The heading says “Testable Decadal Predictions”
Is there any way of testing them, other than waiting a decade?
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No, but a decade is far more reasonable to “wait and see” than the vague 50 – 100 years (when most of us will be dead) that the Warmistas like to use!