By Paul Homewood
Verity Jones, over at Digging in the Clay, reminds me of an interview with Lord Smith, the politician formerly known as Chris Smith, in the Sunday Telegraph.
According to Smith, a former Environment Secretary and now head of the Environment Agency
Last year taught us that weather patterns are getting more extreme,” says Lord Smith. “If you’d said to me a decade ago that we’d have a year in which the first three months would be facing a serious prospect of very severe drought, but we’d then have nine months of the wettest period since records began, I’d have just said, ‘No, that sort of extreme weather does not happen here in Britain.’ Increasingly, it does.
The weather is highly unpredictable and presents new challenges, he says, adding: “We are experiencing a new kind of rain.”
It may sound like an excuse from a railway company, but Lord Smith insists that it is true. “Instead of rain sweeping in a curtain across the country, we are getting convective rain, which sits in one place and just dumps itself in a deluge over a long period of time. From the point of view of filling up the rivers and the drains, that is quite severe.”
According to Wikipedia,
Convection occurs when the Earth’s surface,mainly in the equatorial region, within a conditionally unstable, or moist atmosphere, becomes heated more than its surroundings, leading to significant evaporation . Convective rain, or showery precipitation, occurs from convective clouds, e.g., cumulonimbus or cumulus congestus. It falls as showers with rapidly changing intensity. Convective precipitation falls over a certain area for a relatively short time, as convective clouds have limited horizontal extent. Most precipitation in the tropics appears to be convective.
You will note that there is an immediate disconnect – Smith claims the rain falls “over a long period of time”, not the “relatively short time” defined in Wikipedia. There is, of course, a second problem. Summer temperatures last year in the UK were well below normal, so convection should have been much reduced.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/
Nevertheless, if Smith is right, his claims should be borne out by the monthly rainfall statistics for June to August, as logically that is when the convective effect should be at its greatest. It is also the summer months that have seen rainfall trends on the increase in recent years.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/
So let’s take a look at the England & Wales Rainfall Series, that is maintained by the Met Office and goes back to 1766. The following graphs show the monthly rainfall totals for each of the three months.
The rankings for 2012 were :-
June – 1st (out of 247)
July – 33rd
August – 80th
So the following points stand out.
- Even though the wettest June occurred last year, June 1860 and 1768 were almost as wet.
- Although wetter than average, July and August 2012 were by no means exceptional months, when placed in the historical context.
- In none of the months is there any indication that rainfall in recent years has been unusually high, or is exhibiting any particular trend.
- The summer, as a whole, was the wettest since 1912. However, this has occurred largely because all three months were wetter than normal, with no really dry interludes in between. This simply reflects the inherent variability of English weather, the coincidence of events and the workings of the jet stream, rather than any deep climatic changes.
It is not surprising that Smith attempts to connect last year’s rainfall with climate change, particularly when he is responsible for the UK’s flood defences and the problems experienced last year. However, if there was any basis to his claims, the monthly charts would show evidence of it. They don’t.
Footnote
I thought it worthwhile to repost the Met Office’s summary for June 2012.
The weather was dominated by low pressure over or close to the UK, with associated weather fronts. These brought rather cool days, some very large rainfall totals and also some strong winds early in the month. There was an almost complete absence of warm, settled spells.
The UK mean temperature was 0.7 °C below the 1981–2010 average and it was the coolest June since 1991. Daily maximum temperatures were well below normal, particularly in many central and eastern areas, with few warm days.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2012/june.html
Not exactly tropical!
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It isn’t the ‘wrong’ kind of rain. He is just making excuses for the inadquate maintenance of our rivers, streams and drainage. Cockermouth suffered a couple of years ago because their two converging rivers had not been dredged for years. The recent rain didn’t cause floods there recently as those rivers have now been dredged. Our local stream (called a ‘beck’) in North Yorkshire hasn’t been properly cleared and there were floods in late September. The build-up of rubble, silt and plant life in the rubble and silt is going to cause even more trouble the next time. The EA have not enough staff (the ones I’ve met are good people) to do the work properly nor adequate funding for it. Local farmers should be paid to keep drainage ditches clear. The costs of flood damage are enormous, not just in human misery.
These are the sort of people who are supposed to be representing us; ensuring our safety and security; moulding our legislation – and all the other stuff that they’re supposed to be doing…
‘A new kind of rain”’ – oh, someone please put him out of his misery…
This guy is an idiot. He has probably never fished a mountain stream or touched an irrigation shovel. He doesn’t know rain from spit.
Perhaps it’s time for a new kind of politician – one with a brain.
This year taught us that Lord Smith’s cognitive impairment is getting more extreme.
In Oz with our ‘There shall be no carbon tax under a Govt I lead’ backflipping PM just announcing the next election date in Sept and nosediving in the polls, the usual suspects have come crawling out of the woodwork to shore up their grants as you’d expect.That’s because there seems to be some confusion about SE Australia’s new kind of cool wet summer and naturally Climate Change cannot be ruled ou and not to worry folks because it’s all ‘consistent with scientists’ knowledge and understanding of how the climate is changing in the long term’-
http://climatecommission.gov.au/report/the-science-behind-southeast-australias-cool-wet-summer/
But wait folks there’s more-
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/study-finds-more-frequent-heatwaves-will-kill-hundreds-in-adelaide/comments-e6frea83-1226562171858
Well you do have to cover all the bases, but have quick scroll down the public comments section to see the public’s thoughts on the matter when they’re not censored within those sheltered workshop walls and they’ll warm the cockles of any real scientist’s heart here.
Annie says:
February 5, 2013 at 5:56 am
I think they do have enough staff (as in chiefs)- but not enough indians. On a more serious note, I should like to point out that clearing streams, rivers and channels can drastically affect the flow regime in a given catchment area and is not necessarily the cause of the flooding problems. People sometimes think that clearing a stream bed helps – but in many cases, all it does is increase the flow rate away from that section and into another section. In effect, they just move the problem from one place to another further downstream.
For the layperson it is analagous to lots of small roads feeding into a motorway system. (Indeed, we often see the town planner cock ups here in the UK, whereby they put a lovely new by-pass into place, but then it terminates at a roundabout or traffic light interchange at the rejoining end of the ‘former’ road – thereby creating a massive bottleneck – all that really happens is the cars get to the bottleneck quicker, where they are slowed down again!) The smaller (slower) roads restrict traffic flow (i.e.hold up) the traffic before it reaches the motorway. If entry flow is too great – the motorway cannot cope and a bigger problem ensues – in this analogy, basically much worse downstream flooding.
Put it another way, with superfast ‘cleared’ channels for the water – a whole lot of minor tributary flooding is suddenly transferred downstream into a major rapid influx and major flooding incident.
The reason I make this point is simply to correct the often misplaced assumption that blocked channels are the cause of the majority of flooding, when in reality, it is sometimes the action of efficient water channeling (from A to B) that causes a good deal of problems in the first place! Simple little changes can cause local hydrographic regimes to change significantly – and too many folk cannot see this! I have seen many cases of complaints from householders saying they need the streams/channels cleared but they don’t realise it simply ‘moves the problem on’ – it doesn’t actually solve it. It would be far more practical to look ‘upstream’ and see if there are places where rivers/streams can be widened or weired to restrict downstream flow rates.
Hope that makes sense………
Failed NuLab politician Lord Chris Smith has also conveniently forgotten to add that the Agency he heads up no longer dredges the rivers that are supposed to be their responsibility. Every time the fields flood then soil is washed into the rivers. This silting up of the rivers must reduce their capacity. Also- the local authorities where I live appear to have stopped sweeping the streets in the autumn(fall). Even now I see clumps of rotting leaves blocking the drains. I’ve lost count of the number of drains with quite woody growth poking through the grills. The old National Rivers Authority took more care of the rivers, but then got swallowed up by the EA who seem content to wash their hands of our flood defences.
Kev-in-Uk says:
February 5, 2013 at 8:17 am
But if you clear away the restrictions where it causes flooding to Humans and move it to flooding fields and empty areas it has to be better than leaving them as they are.
If you unblock it all the way to the sea or syphon it off in to new Reservoirs it would be even better.
A C Osborn says:
February 5, 2013 at 8:53 am
Yes and no. Firstly, before we talk about flooding affecting humans, let’s remember what can be expected when building too close to a river, or on a floodplain! Now, we all know how variable the weather is, and we all know how powerful nature can be – so I ask you, in all honesty – what do you think of people that build on floodplains? And, on the presumption that you are a Brit, how do you feel about your insurance premiums rising to pay for that kind of idiotic behaviour? (/rant!)
Moving on, when a flow regime is changed – it will have some effect somewhere else. There is no getting away from it. Some people simply don’t grasp that X cubic metres of rainwater will spread out over Y metres of area at a given depth (X/Y), that area can be, as you say, large fields, or concentrated into deep sided ‘flood defense’ type systems.
As for the moving to flooding fields and stuff, yes, but that is partly the purpose of dams and weirs in upper tributary areas, to be able to restrict flow rates allowed downstream. In the old days, when weirs and water mills were functioning, water was ‘restricted’ in upper valley areas, kept in Mill ponds, or allowed to flood fields, etc, etc. I have been to many places, e.g. the upper Lune Valley, and seen the large levees constructed to protect the farmers fields too! Lucky farmers = unlucky residents further downstream!
Then you have actual urban development itself, whereby hardcover surfaces, roof and driveway, roads, etc – water is collected and funnelled direct to the nearest watercourse. Previously, this water may have taken days to filter through the ground naturally via soakaways and into the watercourses. This has major effects on river ecosystems and suchlike, as instead of a continuous baseflow, streams and rivers can dry up in dry months and run like rapids in wet months. These are all environmental changes contributing to the problem. In the UK for the last few years, we have SUDS (Sustainable Underground Drainage Systems) imposed to try and restore some of this imbalance during new construction whereby all rainfall (called surface water) has to be discharged into the ground where feasible.
You cannot, realistically, ”unblock all the way to the sea” either. Firstly, flow rates would change and this could cause scour rates (i.e. erosion) and silt depositional rates to change significantly, again, perhaps somewhere else in the river ‘chain’. I think it is important to remember that river systems are (or rather were) natural entities, and in a nutshell, any changes along them have a knock on effect somewhere else! (think of Newtons 3rd Law, and apply it here). In the UK, we have basically built up/over and around the majority of rivers and streams and have significantly altered the water regimes thereabouts. My overall point being that blaming the EA for not clearing the local streams and rivers is far too simple a view and demonstrates an inherent failure of understanding! (sorry, but that is the truth – although I don’t doubt that in some cases, local clearing would have helped!)
Some hilariously funny replies here… thanks for those. I have to single out the American Pie lyrics and the Bowfinger Chubby Rain answers in particular. My contribution to the hilarity is my name for this new rain…
Piltdown Rain.
Chris Smith head of the Environment Agency.
Like a fly trapped in Amber, you just wonder how the devil it got there!
A new kind of rain in post-war Toronto, and what they did about it.
http://trca.on.ca/the-living-city/water-flood-management/flood-protection.dot
Global Warming, or whatever you call it, makes a cameo appearance near the end.
Pamela Gray says:
February 5, 2013 at 6:51 am
This guy is an idiot. He has probably never fished a mountain stream or touched an irrigation shovel. He doesn’t know rain from spit.
He’s not an idiot; he’s got a first class degree in English and a PhD with a thesis on Wordsworth and Coleridge from Cambridge University. He’s climbed all the Munros (282 mountains over 3,000ft in Scotland) so he will have undoubtedly experienced every variety of rain it’s possible to have in the UK. But, he is a socialist apparatchik with long experience of toeing the party line. I doubt very much whether he has much technical understanding of environmental matters but I could be wrong.
I do believe there have been more than one or two “researchers” who have ended up being wild animal scat. They’re still idiots. Don’t care how many letters they have after their names or what university they have attended. Because you have book learnin and have climbed mountains doesn’t mean squat when it comes to climate science. Try a life time of dry land farming till you are too tired and worn out to enjoy retirement. Live through natural wet and dry climate cycles if you are so blessed or cursed. Then write about rain. Till then, it’s just the musings of fools.
Next The politicians will be telling us it is precipitating OOBLECK!
Obviously a Research Grant Seeker.
johanna says: February 4, 2013 at 4:38 pm
My hypothesis is that it is more likely to have been caused by mememitosis and/or climitosis. Two challenging conditions which are often manifested by those who are terminally afflicted with climate hypochondria [h/t Eduardo Zorita] 😉
Hilary Ostrov [recovering from a recent reading of Lewandowsky’s Latest Ludicrous (aka LLL™) exercise in self-exculpatory, post-modernist poppycock]
“It is not surprising that Smith attempts to connect last year’s rainfall with climate change, particularly when he is responsible for the UK’s flood defences and the problems experienced last year.”
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
As I vave been saying for a long time Climate change (AGW) has for a long time been used as an excuse to cover up poor management.
For a long time, we have experienced water shortages in the South of England. This has been blamed on Climate change/AGW. Constantly, the BBC (who obtain their information from the Met Office) and MSM have been carrying the mantra that Climate change/AGW is leading to less rain and that the UK will in the future experience drought conditions which as the years pass will become more extreme. Yet this runs contrary to the Met Office rainfall data. There is no statistical difference in rainfall quantities these past 20 or so years and to the extent that there is some difference, the UK is experiencing slightly more rainfall than 30 years ago. The Met Office is now admitting that and there is now a change in mantra that we will experience more floods due to imcreased rainfall.
The past mantra was being used to explain water shortages and hose pipe bans in the south, which is due to immigration (an inflx of maybe upto 10 million more people in the south partly migration from north to south but largely immagration) which has placed much more demand on water resources and yet in the past 25 years not one single new reservoir has been built to meet this increased demand. It is justy poor management.
The mantra has now changed because of the recent floods of the past couple of years. This is due to having built new houses in inappropriate places (on river flood plains). These new developments have experienced some flooding because they are built on flood plains, but also some of these new developments have flood defences which has resulted in flood water finding a different escape route so that there is now a change in the location of flood plains. This latter point, which is a subtle point, is often overlooked. Some towns that have not experienced flooding for a 100 years are experiencing flooding today because of new developments built downstream which new developments have flood defences causing the river to back up and flood in places which were not previously part of the flood plain. again this is poor management.
In public office, no one takes responsibility for their actions and poor decision making. The UK government wants to cover up the effects and costs of immigration and to do this it relies upon climate change /AGW as an excuse for water shortages. Now that concern has shifted from water shortage to floods, which have largely been caused by planning decisions, it uses the climate change/AGW mantra as an excuse for the floods. It will never admit the truth, namely that because of immigration we need some new reservoirs and that we have stupidly built new homes (the need for which is largely the result of immigration) in inappriate places.
as the data shows, there is nothing extraordinary about the recent UK rainfall. It is and has always been very variable. a country like the UK (surrounded by oceans with wet moist air coming accross its shores no matter from which direction the wind blows) always will have copious amounts of rainfall. It will not suffer water shortages and it is merely a question of good water management (in which I include river management and not building on floodplains and not putting up defences that will result in the alteration of flood plain patterns to the prejudice of existing connubations).
A C Osborn says:
February 5, 2013 at 4:10 am
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Had not seen this when I made my post.
Bang On.
Smith’s comments are no more than the usual weasel words of politicians covering up their gross incompetence. Regretably nothing cjhanges, and will not change until there is true accountability of public servants. The law should create a new offence of dereliction of duty and gross negligence in and about the discharge of public office. This should carry with it financial ramifications.
I find it absolutely astounding that when the Climate Change Act came to be debated in Parliament, only a handful of MPs could be troubled to turn up and deabte it. This is the second most costly piece of peace time legislation (only behind the welfare state and NHS) and yet our MPs could not even be troubled to scrutinise it. Talk about dereliction of duty for which the public are now paying a heavy price.
We desperately need accountability i public office. Public servants may then have the knowledge and experience required to discharge their duties and may seriously think about the consequences of their decision making. Both of which would greatly benefit the standard of service delivered. .
The problem is that idiots like Chris Smith fall for the: ‘Well, I’VE never seen anything like it IN MY LIFETIME..’ trap…
Your lifetime, matey, is like a teaspoon in the Atlantic in terms of the earth’s climate – so don’t talk such piffle…
He was also President of the Cambridge Union (Debating Society).
Although an English specialist he clearly discounts Chaucer as a source
Whan that Aprille with his shoures soote
The droghte of Marche hath perced to the roote,
And bathed every veyne in swich licour,
Of which vertu engendred is the flour;
Geoffrey Chaucer , The Prologue to the Canterbury Tales (1387 – 1400)
“A geography lesson for the Environment Agency chief”
“Baron Smith of Finsbury, perhaps better known as Chris Smith, the Labour politician, was widely quoted in the news media last week…..”We are experiencing a new kind of rain…instead of rain sweeping in a curtain across the country, we are getting convective rain, which sits in one place and dumps itself in a deluge over a long period of time.”
He is quite wrong, of course, but there the matter would rest, were it not that Lord Smith is Chairman of the Environment Agency and therefore should know everthing there is to know about rain and floods. Or least should have minions to prevent him from making such a fundamental error.
If he had studied for geography A level in the in 1969 or 1970, Lord Smith would have had it drummed into him that there are three types of rain, “frontal”, “orographic”, and “convective”. Convective rainfall events form the majority of summer rainstorms in Britain, and always have done. Nothing new about them at all…..”
Philip Eden
Past president of the Royal Meteorological Society
In today’s print version of the Sunday Telegraph, can’t find a link.
The Environment Agency is diseased… and seemingly incapable of transparency and honesty.
We’ve had a gut-full via
The UK High Court,
Parliament – House of Commons,
The UK Information Commissioner (FoI),
The UK Parliamentary Ombudsman and much else…
An Absolute Shower of Hubris
We’ve tried to communicate with Mr. Smith about the misdeeds of his minions – but he’s far too grand to even bother responding to worker ants.