Image Credit: Climate4You.com
From The Telegraph – By London Mayor Boris Johnson
“The Sun is god!” cried JMW Turner as he died, and plenty of other people have thought there was much in his analysis. The Aztecs agreed, and so did the pharaohs of Egypt. We are an arrogant lot these days, and we tend to underestimate the importance of our governor and creator.
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As a species, we human beings have become so blind with conceit and self-love that we genuinely believe that the fate of the planet is in our hands — when the reality is that everything, or almost everything, depends on the behaviour and caprice of the gigantic thermonuclear fireball around which we revolve.
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I remember snow that used to come and settle for just long enough for a single decent snowball fight before turning to slush; I don’t remember winters like this. Two days ago I was cycling through Trafalgar Square and saw icicles on the traffic lights; and though I am sure plenty of readers will say I am just unobservant, I don’t think I have seen that before. I am all for theories about climate change, and would not for a moment dispute the wisdom or good intentions of the vast majority of scientists.
But I am also an empiricist; and I observe that something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it “warming” is obviously to strain the language. I see from the BBC website that there are scientists who say that “global warming” is indeed the cause of the cold and snowy winters we seem to be having. A team of Americans and Chinese experts have postulated that the melting of the Arctic ice means that the whole North Atlantic is being chilled as the floes start to break off — like a Martini refrigerated by ice cubes.
I do not have the expertise to comment on the Martini theory; I merely observe that there are at least some other reputable scientists who say that it is complete tosh, or at least that there is no evidence to support it. We are expecting the snow and cold to go on for several days, and though London transport has coped very well so far, with few delays or cancellations, I can’t help brooding on my own amateur meteorological observations. I wish I knew more about what is going on, and why. It is time to consult once again the learned astrophysicist, Piers Corbyn.
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When the solar acne diminishes, it seems that the Earth gets colder. No one contests that when the planet palpably cooled from 1645 to 1715 — the Maunder minimum, which saw the freezing of the Thames — there was a diminution of solar activity. The same point is made about the so-called Dalton minimum, from 1790 to 1830. And it is the view of Piers Corbyn that we are now seeing exactly the same phenomenon today.
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I am speaking only as a layman who observes that there is plenty of snow in our winters these days, and who wonders whether it might be time for government to start taking seriously the possibility — however remote — that Corbyn is right. If he is, that will have big implications for agriculture, tourism, transport, aviation policy and the economy as a whole. Of course it still seems a bit nuts to talk of the encroachment of a mini ice age.
But it doesn’t seem as nuts as it did five years ago. I look at the snowy waste outside, and I have an open mind.
Not saying anything about the accuracy of the content of the article, but it is certainly interesting that it was written by London Mayor and eventual Prime Minister hopeful Boris Johnson. The Guardian certainly isn’t amused.
We’ll trade you a Johnson for an Obama. Promised to tackle “dangerous Climate Change” in his speech today. Also to make everyone safe, wealthy, etc…
Right wing Boris is a big fan of Piers Corbyn.
Now that seems unlikely but true.
Piers is an unreconstructed Bolshevik who finds Leningrad easier to say than St Petersburg.
However Piers has put his reputation on the line by coming up with a number of recent unlikely weather predictions that turned out to be accurate
MikeB says:
January 21, 2013 at 12:29 pm
Also, the Guardian’s comment sections are patrolled by pit bulls who exert enormous energy to poison any rational discussion. I am not claiming that these pit bulls are Guardian employees but they do their best to protect, through whatever means, the opinions of Guardian employees.
Jimbo says:
January 21, 2013 at 12:48 pm
“It’s not just the UK shivering, but Europe.”
Check out “Notrickszone.” He has been following the disastrous cold eastern Europe, China, and Malaysia. Objective reports are that it is the worst in 50 years.
Boris Johnson is a breath of fresh air. He is a man with his own mind who expects others to have their own minds. He addresses others as if they have their own minds. I hope he can prevail.
So Boris looks out of the window and sees snow and then decides to write about a possible mini ice age. Priceless.
He cannot remember, apparently, snow like this before.
He says
“By my calculations, this is now the fifth year in a row that we have had an unusual amount of snow; and by unusual I mean snow of a kind that I don’t remember from my childhood: snow that comes one day, and then sticks around for a couple of days, followed by more.”
So Boris you cannot remember the relentless snow and cold of the winter of 1978/9 in England (he was 14) ? You can’t remember thick ice floes on the rivers that winter ?
You cannot remember the winter of 1981/2 when it was so cold in southern England that it killed non-hardy trees (-15C in Essex) ?
Nor the heavy snow in early 1987 with daytime temperatures well below freezing and 2 foot long icicles hanging off the gutters ?
Nor the winters in the 1990s when several times lakes froze over and villages in the south east were cut-off due to drifting snow with gale force easterly winds ?
Yes we have had a cold week or so, but thats totally normal in an English winter. Funny how Boris did not write an article about the fact that the spring bulbs were pushing through in the south east in the previous weeks. Here in Essex we had no frost at all for 21 straight nights to the 9th Jan.
Its both amazing and revealing that the sceptic world gets itself in such a lather when Boris looks out of his window and sees snow.
Its called weather.
Joe says:
January 21, 2013 at 12:28 pm
“He also appears to possess a social conscience, which is something that the best of the Right always had before that dreadful woman appeared with her mantra of everyone for themselves / Screw Thy Neighbour.”
Oh this old calumny again. Typical socialist miscasting of an opponent’s real beliefs and motives. Thatcher’s view, as a Grocer’s daughter, who took a degree in Chemistry, and became Prime Minister of course, was that people should stand on their own two feet, live within their means, and not expect the state to owe them a living. It did not preclude helping those who for whatever reason cannot help themselves. But that only when you have made good are you in a position to help those less fortunate. Making your own way in life does not mean disregarding others.
The left could never beat her in argument so warped her views to that selfish, bitter and down-right nasty phraseology above so they could attack that.
As a life-long socialist he should know that someone somewhere has to earn some money before it can be appropriated and shared out. In fact, to adapt his elegant phraseology, Everyone help themselves to the money-tree/ Screw Thy Hard Working Neighbour is actually how the socialist creed pans out.
Has anyone looked at South Korea lately? As I recall, Korea usually has a cold dry air mass during the winter from Siberia — very cold and not much snow. My wife, who is Korean, keeps calling me over to the TV (we get Korean TV) every few days to show the snowstorms Korea is getting — she just showed me one they are getting now.
As a species, we human beings have become so blind with conceit and self-love that we genuinely believe that the fate of the planet is in our hands — when the reality is that everything, or almost everything, depends on the behaviour and caprice of the gigantic thermonuclear fireball around which we revolve.
I wondered why Boris is Lord Mayor and wants to be prime minister! He is going to fix the fireball thingie!
Don’t let him kid you folks. Boris wants power so that he can use it, not because it does not exist.
James Abbott says:
January 21, 2013 at 4:12 pm
“Its both amazing and revealing that the sceptic world gets itself in such a lather when Boris looks out of his window and sees snow.”
The interest generated by Boris’ article had nothing to do with the one item that you fixed upon. You should read his entire article and give it some thought. Then you might write a post about what there is in Boris’ article that interests others.
In addition, read some of the comments above. In those comments, you will find reasons that persons are interested in Boris’ article.
I found it very interesting as a declaration of personal liberty. Boris has decided to use his own mind in evaluating the matter of a coming Little Ice Age and is telling the BBS and all lock step leftist propagandists to stick it where the sun does not shine. That is something very desirable in a politician. He might prove to be a reformer.
Regarding comments about eating asparagus every day and there not being an ice age because of food availablility. You only havbe to look at the rampant food pricec inflation because of the shortages that are now occuring. Crops failed last year with potatoes rotting in the ground farmers not being able to go on to their land to harvest wheat and other cereals. Yes you maw well be able to eat asparagus every day but how much are you now paying for it and how far ar you now havi8ng to go to buy it?
By the way anyone that falls for the buffon image Boris Johnson has nutured be ready for a surprise.
I have always been an admirer of Boris Johnson, he is one of those rare politicians who speak as they find, not as their poitical whims dictate. I read this column, this morning and thought that my admiration was not misplaced and I think that he will make an excellent PM!
The Guardian on the other hand berates him for writing this column and getting paid £5000 for his work. The Guardian is quite happy to advertise non-jobs for Labour Councils (Diversity Manager, Lesbian Outreach workers, to give two examples) paying tens of thousands of pounds per year. This together with their attitude of “The science is settled” shows their hypocrisy in its true colours!
Going back to the article, I think it was full of insight, he discussed it as a layman, which is the way many of us on WUWT debate this topic.
Antonia says:
January 21, 2013 at 1:15 pm
Joe, Maggie did NOT say screw thy neighbour. Yes, she did say, “there is no such thing as society” but nobody ever puts that quote into context. Here is the full quote, “If children have a problem, it is society that is at fault. There is no such thing as society. There is living tapestry of men and women and people, and the beauty of that tapestry and the quality of our lives will depend upon how much each of us is prepared to take responsibility for ourselves and each of us prepared to turn round and help by our own efforts those who are unfortunate.”
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I wasn’t actually thinking of that quote because I agree that it’s mis-used far too often, although the last part hints at where my problem with her sits.
Think carefully about what she’s saying, and about exactly which “unfortunates” are likely to benefit from all this wonderful voluntary help – will it be your neighbour who’s just lost a packet in the city or the poor kid on a council estate who’s excluded form all the extra-curricular stuff because it costs? I refuse to believe she was stupid enough not to realise that, especially seeing as so many of her policies over the years absolutely reinforced that situation. How to sound like you care while not really giving a damn.
Interesting to see that you spotted which “awful woman” I was referring to though 😉
The polar vortex has apparently split into two sections after the very recent sudden stratospheric warming event of mid January.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/16/1179397/-Sudden-Stratospheric-Warming-Split-the-Polar-Vortex-in-Two
Combine this with high pressure over Scandinavia, and the UK gets easterlies and snow.
The article claims ‘This stratospheric warming is apparently the strongest ever observed in the first half of January according to the NOAA figure. No one knows why the number of major warmings is increasing but a correlation has been with positive sea surface temperature anomalies and the active phase of the solar cycle. This year the sun is active and there are large positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the north Indian ocean and the north-west Pacific.’.
So Robert is your Father’s Brother (Bob’s your uncle), as us Brits would say.
I like Boris he seems to come across as a bumbling buffoon but he is a very clever man who is thinking way ahead and then trips over what is in front of him, he has come up with some far sighted ideas for London and will say what he is thinking which can get him into hot water from time to time.
I liked Curt says:joke very funny.
James Bull
“The Guardian certainly isn’t amused.”
Silly Boris, doesn’t he know? Cold and snow is merely weather, only when its warm is it climate change…..
I entrusted Boris Pfeffel Johnson with some of my taxes to spend on my behalf. Voted for BJ twice, didn’t like Ken’s newts.
Who is Boris?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/whodoyouthinkyouare/new-stories/boris-johnson/how-we-did-it_2.shtml
pat says: January 21, 2013 at 1:02 pm
NOAA – National Weather Service – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
NOAA – National Weather Service – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
NOAA – National Weather Service – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Boris obviously didn’t believe the Beeb!
12 Jan: BBC Weather: John Hammond: Sudden stratospheric warming responsible for UK’s icy blast
For a few weeks now, forecasters have been monitoring an abrupt jump in temperatures way up in the stratosphere – not a cooling, but actually a sudden warming.
Such sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) have led to notable cold spells in recent years…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20998895
Ian Robinson says: January 21, 2013 at 11:30 pm
The polar vortex has apparently split into two sections after the very recent sudden stratospheric warming event of mid January.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/01/16/1179397/-Sudden-Stratospheric-Warming-Split-the-Polar-Vortex-in-Two
Yes, the reason for the recent arctic temperatures extending southward appears to be the break up of the Polar Vortex;
Note: This animation shows Earth’s Winter 2008 – 09 Arctic Polar Vortex and a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, which occurs when the Polar Vortex splits or breaks-up: [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIXfYTSmBg0&feature=related]
Resulting in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW):
Global – 10-hPa/mb Height Temperature Anomalies – Atmospheric Temperature Anomalies At Approximately 31,000 meters (101,700 feet)
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
Northern Hemisphere – Vertical Cross Section of Geopotential Height Anomalies (Polar Vortex)
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
The Sudden Stratospheric Warming appears to be related to Eddy Heat, i.e.: “Strong negative fluxes indicate poleward flux of heat via eddies. Multiple strong poleward episodes will result in a smaller polar vortex, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and an earlier transition from winter to summer circulations. Relatively small flux amplitudes will result in a more stable polar vortex and will extend the winter circulation well into the Spring”
10 day Averaged Eddy Heat Flux Towards The South Pole At 100mb (2012)
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
You can learn more about Polar Vortices from this article;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/10/29/new-wuwt-polar-vortex-reference-page/
and monitor Polar Vorticity on the WUWT Polar Vortex page here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/polar-vortex/
MikeB
“The Guardian is a left wing newspaper (nothing wrong with that) which prides itself on its website with a comment section called ‘Comment is Free’. Whilst comment may be free, free speech certainly isn’t as far the Guardian is concerned.”
A university-based scientist of my acquaintance was informed last year that her blogs will no longer be permitted to appear. Her occasional blogs were always written on a subject where she is an expert (not climate-related) to correct, in very polite terms, erroneous claims and statistics by one or more of the Guardian journalists.
justthefactswuwt says:
January 22, 2013 at 4:50 am
………………..
The NOAA animation at 10 hPa may be misleading, since at that latitude shows as if the SSW is triggered and rising from the Middle East., which I think may not be.
If you go to a much lower altitude at 50 hPa
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.gif
than you may notice that the SSW is actually connected with a prolonged link to the Kamchatka peninsula, where two or three volcanoes are currently active.
I have some more details here:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NH.htm
Justthefactswuwt,
Re the GISP2 data used to produce the charts: this appears to be derived from the data used for ‘The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland’ (Alley, 2000) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379199000621
If so then it should be made clear that the period marked ‘0’ on the Climate4you chart at the top of your post ends around 1900. This is because the data (here: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt) start at 49 years ‘before present’, where ‘present’ is defined as 1950 (following convention).
Therefore the period marked ‘Modern warm period’ on the C4Y chart does not in fact include any of the warming observed over the 20th century and up to the present. As such, I fear the chart may be rather misleading for anyone unaware of this.
I am so tired of hearing about TSI and temperatures from 10,000 tears ago. The Earth’s atmosphere filters and reflects [non-uniformly] energy from the Sun. This is why UV at the Earth’s surface rises during a Sunspot Peak [UV from the Sun up x10]. What is the TRUE TSI? That is, what is the amount of energy, frequency weighted, that actually “is captured” by the Planet. It is NOT the amount of TSI !!!!!!!
From 1750 until 2000 the average number of Sunspots per year rose. The Earth warmed. Now the average number of Sunspots per year is declining, and there will be cooling.
It is very unfortunate that Government controls almost all research and development around the world. For example: Almost all Government funded research goes to Military. Apple purchased the company [funded by the Navy] that created Siri.
World government [IPCC] wanted warming; Government research give it to them. Now, how about real research into UV, etc., from the Sun.
justthefactswuwt says:
January 22, 2013 at 4:50 am
If this post is an answer then what is the question? My question is serious and not an attempt at snark.
Yeah, and it’s -7 deg C in New York City, today. It’s clearly evidence that the next ice age must be starting.
Fooled by noise.
The crowd here is likely to still announce “global cooling” as just being around the corner, even when the global surface temperature anomaly caused by the continuing increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases has increased another 0.5 K compared to today.
“Fooled by noise”?
No, just noise from a fool.^
Global warming has stalled, as shown here:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/article-2055191-0e974b4300000578-216_468x4731.jpg