From Harvard University
An early sign of spring, earlier than ever
Researchers say record-high temperatures led to earliest spring flowering in history
Record warm temperatures in 2010 and 2012 resulted in the earliest spring flowering in the eastern United States in more than 150 years, researchers at Harvard University, Boston University and the University of Wisconsin have found.
“We’re seeing plants that are now flowering on average over three weeks earlier than when they were first observed – and some species are flowering as much as six weeks earlier,” said Charles Davis, a Harvard Professor of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology and the study’s senior author. “Spring is arriving much earlier today than it has in the past.”
To explain spring’s early arrival, Davis and his co-authors, Boston University biology Professor Richard Primack, BU postdoctoral researcher Elizabeth Ellwood and Professor Stanley Temple at the University of Wisconsin, point to temperature increases resulting from global climate change. Using data collected in Massachusetts and Wisconsin from the mid-1800s to the present day, they show that the two warmest years on record – 2010 and 2012 – also featured record breaking early spring flowering.
Significantly, researchers found that the early arrival of spring was predicted by historical records, and that plants haven’t shown any sign of reaching a threshold for adjusting to warming temperatures.
“It appears that many spring plants keep pushing things earlier and earlier”, Davis said.
To conduct the study, Davis and colleagues relied on two “incredibly unique” data sets.
“The data were initiated by Henry David Thoreau in the mid-1800s,” Davis said. “He was making observations on flowering times across Concord, Massachusetts for nearly a decade. In central Wisconsin, the data were collected by environmental pioneer Aldo Leopold beginning in the mid-1930s.
“The striking finding is that we see the same pattern in Wisconsin as we see in Massachusetts,” Davis said. “It’s amazing that these areas are so far apart and yet we’re seeing the same things–it speaks to a larger phenomenon taking place in the eastern United States.”
“Thoreau and Leopold are icons of the American environmental movement and it is astonishing that the records both kept decades ago can be used today to demonstrate the impacts of climate change on plant flowering times,” Primack said.
While it’s clear that continued monitoring of flowering times is needed, Davis also expressed hope that the study provides a tangible example of the potential consequences of climate change.
“The problem of climate change is so massive, the temptation is for people to tune out,” Davis said. “But I think being aware that this is indeed happening is one step in the right direction of good stewardship of our planet.” Davis continued. “When we talk about future climate change, it can be difficult to grasp. Humans may weather these changes reasonably well in the short-term, but many organisms in the tree of life will not fare nearly as well.”
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These scientists rely on laypeople not knowing a whole mess of facts:
1. The current interglacial has seen cooling for the past 6,000 years
2. Forest ringed the Arctic across Siberia during the Holocene Optimum
3. “Perma”frost melt at that time did not yield a runaway positive feedback via methane release.
4. The Little Ice Age, which was global and generally destructive, ended in 1850 or so (round about the time we started seeing the terrifying warming)
5. Sea level during the interglacial one before ours was @15 feet higher than today
6. The Holocene is the coolest of the last five interglacials
And on and on and on.
I wrote a book to arm interested laypersons against such assaults on their dignity.
Thoreau’s era 1830s to 1840s was an exceptionally cold time for the modern period.
NE Oregon -spring of 2010 was late here. 2011, and a fairly normal but cold and wet one in 2012. 2013 well we havent seen above 36f mostly 25f as highs for the last 3 weeks. Yes an
early spring in NE Oregon would be nice.Something good happens and its a problem.
“A Puritan is someone who goes to be at night with the gnawing fear that somewhere,
someone, is happy.”-HL Menken …
Oh,one more thing I lived for a number of years in Coos Bay Oregon.I had a greenie neighbor
that said;”DO you Know that within TEN years Coos Bay will have the climate of Santa Barbra!!!”
Looked at my wife and said:” We don’t think that is a problem..”
BTW no Santa Barbra there yet…it’s been 12 years..
Plants growing…the horror
The Japanese consider the flowering of the cherry trees to be of special importance and have records going back 1000 years http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf. They find that the recent earlier flowering is due to urbanization [1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius].
We have had thirty some years of disaster predicted because of global warming. Nothing could be further from the truth. The earth is in much better shape than it was then. The trees are by and large healthier and greener. Yes there are exceptions but there will always be. More CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to be a great benefit for greater crop yields and when plants do better we all do better. Cold is our enemy and while we need some we don’t want to promote it. I don’t know what the optimun climate might be but more hospitable land available around the world is not a bad thing. Warmer is better. The earth has a pretty good thermostat. Leave it alone.
Oh no you DON’T, Harvard!
Skeptical Science says spring coming earlier is going DOWN!
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/Warming_Indicators_500.jpg
Just how is this warming from 1880 a bad thing? pg
Why do they need to refer to flowering times when we have temperature records? From CO2 science:
http://www.co2science.org//articles/V5/N8/B3.php
Johnson, S.L. and Lincoln, D.E. 2000. Allocation responses to CO2 enrichment and defoliation by a native annual plant Heterotheca subaxillaris. Global Change Biology 6: 767-778.
“elevated CO2 increased reproductive flower biomass and caused flowering to occur much earlier than it did in ambiently-grown plants.” How many other direct effects of CO2 have been assigned to temperature changes?
From 1912 through 2012, warming in MA has been 0.09F/decade.
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/tmp/graph-Jan1622:03:174351196289.gif
Peter Hartley says: How many other direct effects of CO2 have been assigned to temperature changes?
My guess is that CO2 may be causing tress to hang on longer into the Fall because they can remain productive in slightly less sunlight. Not good for Fall leaf peeper tourist revenue though.
Oh yes, that early spring thing with low 20’s F in May killed my cherry trees last spring. DEAD! Go CAGW! If only it was true…I could plant those tropical fruits. Oh darn.Siberian pine nuts?
Translation:
During the Little Ice Age, it was colder and flowers bloomed later in the year than today.
Read that last paragraph again. Problems? An apriori assumption without justification? Since past swings in temperature were much larger and most species have adapted and survived (based on fossil records), where is their proof?
Feed Me Seymour, Feed Me!
and that plants haven’t shown any sign of reaching a threshold for adjusting to warming temperatures.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Almost like they think it is natural, they like it. Sorta how they like high levels of CO2 as well. Almost like they evolved in a warmer, CO2 rich atmosphere. Of course there must be a different reason because that would be impossible.
Spring starting early? Hurray! Longer growing time.
Once again, owning a Doctorate is an excuse for jumping to stupid conclusions…when was temperature the sole indicator of earlier flowering?
Using data collected in Massachusetts and Wisconsin from the mid-1800s to the present day
Are they saying it was warming up WAY BEFORE our generous (and beneficial) increases in atmospheric CO2? No… couldn’t be. They are admitting climate factors are at work that have little or nothing to do with anthropogenic fossil fuel consumption. How bizzare!
OMG! I was reading about this very thing all day, while eventually not being assigned to a jury……
So I got tucked into my MIS-5e subfolder, with 266 files and 4 subfolders lower. Although I read all of them before, you would be surprised what you pick up on the second or third time through.
Made it through about a dozen papers, but one really came to mind as I read the above press release. http://eprints.ucm.es/15767/1/2011_1_Millennial-submillennial_QSR_01.pdf
Some salient quoutes from the paper:
“This interglacial includes three highstands (Zazo et al., 2003)…………”Each subunit records a relatively rapid rise of sea level……..”The minimum sea-level variation (fall and subsequent rise) required to generate the observed features is 4 m.”
“Rapid sea-level changes during the early part of MIS 5e have been reported from the Gulf of Corinth (Greece). There, the early MIS 5e highstand (∼137 to ∼135 ka) was punctuated by two significant (>10 m) eustatic sea-level falls, which probably occurred in less than 1000 yr (Andrews et al., 2007)”
“During the first part of the phase of high sea level, minor (tens of centimeters high) fluctuations of sea level were recorded as vertical and lateral shifts of the plunge-step facies, as observed at the “classical” quarry”
“This pattern was repeated at least seven times producing erosion surfaces I to VII that limit the successive subunits”
“In summary, the relatively rapid rises of sea level that begun sedimentation of subunits were followed by a period of essentially high level, with minor oscillations recorded as shift of plunge-step facies, and later gentle, relatively slow fall. Therefore, the investigated sequences record at least two orders of small-scale changes of sea level………”
“This pattern of more or less homogeneous, repeated fluctuations was interrupted by a notable fall of sea level of at least 3-3.5m that produced the prominent erosion surface IV (Fig. 6) that cuts across the underlying deposits, separating Units 2 and 3.”
“This implies a total sea-level change of at least 6-7 m occurred during the fall and subsequent rise between Units 2 and 3.”
“Unfortunately, no reports of similar changes of sea level in interglacials older than MIS 5e have been published. The only comparable case-study available is a Holocene coastal plain, where a barrier-spit system prograded in Roquetas (Almeria coast) during the most stable part (the last 7 ka) of the present interglacial. Goy et al. (2003), Zazo et al. (2008), and Fernández-Salas et al. (2009) distinguished six periods of remarkable progradation (H1 to H6), repeated more or less every 1.4 to 3.0 ka, punctuated by shorter, centennial periods (lasting 600 to 270 yrs) of reduced progradation. These recurring short periods were interpreted as climatically-influenced and record increased aridity and relative low sea level, coincident with cold Bond events (Bond et al., 1997) and low sea surface temperatures (De Menocal et al., 2000; Cacho et al., 2001).”
From the conclusions:
“Evidence of rapid changes of sea level during the second MIS 5e highstand, comparable to the “sustained MIS 5e highstand” with a duration of 10 2 ka, has been recognized in a prograding barrierspit system located at La Marina-El Pinet (Alicante)……….It involved a minimum total sea level variation of 6-7 m. These units include eight prograding subunits separated by less prominent erosion surfaces.”
“……the erosion surfaces are the result of repetitive relatively slow falls of sea level followed by rapid sea-level rise. The minimum amplitude deduced for fluctuations is 2 m, which represents a total change (fall and subsequent rise) in sea-water of 4 m. After each fall and erosion the sea level rose to similar topographic elevations.We propose a millennial or submillennial periodicity (∼1 ka) for these fluctuations, and disregard storm surges as a likely generating mechanism. The large magnitude of the repeated sea-level fluctuations suggests a contribution by rapid ice sheets melting and build-up.”
“The smaller-scaled (tens of centimeters) order of oscillations of sea level has been recognized inside the subunits from shifts of the foreshore and uppermost shoreface facies, and a decadal periodicity is suggested.”
At what would have to be a long list of takeaway points here are a few Occam’s Razors.
1 Climate “stuff” happens on decadal to millenial scales that almost always starts with a rapid warming and slow fall. Anthropogenic utilization of beans to produce methane gas was still an interglacial away. As was salsa and probably chili peppers.
2 Sea levels coming and going all the time in the +2-4m range.
3 “The smaller-scaled (tens of centimeters) order of oscillations of sea level….” The IPCC’s AR4 worst-case estimate of sea level rise by 2100 is just shy of 6 tens of centimeters. And, you know, those were “the smaller scaled” ones. Here you should consider that even during the highstands, of which there were at least 3, had variation (noise) in this same range.
4 Anybody else notice that the periodicity of the constant “millenial” class cycles are eerily close to “repetitive relatively slow falls of sea level followed by rapid sea-level rise” which characterize the 24-25 Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations observed in many locales within the last glacial, this interglacial, and now the last one back?
5 Sorry. A month and a half earlier “spring” for plants just doesn’t figure into discussion of the climate variability observed/recorded during this interglacial, or the 10’s of centimeters millennial to sub-millenial variation in sea level (meaning up AND down) present on the smallest scale during the last interglacial. You must at least exceed this, up AND down, if you think you are going to get my attention. This is about both signal to noise ratio and baseline. http://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/136605.pdf just happened to be a tad higher in the Eemian.
Understanding is all about perspective. If you have nothing to compare a 6-week earlier “spring” with, such as the low-end “tens of centimeters” we lived through in the Eemian, then maybe the warming since the LIA appears contaminated. The problem here is that the “Anthropogene” actually falls in the low-end of the things climate that just seem to keep happening. If you want to really get a feel for what seems to happen at the ends of the other eccentricity-minima interglacials anyway, you should revisit http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/16/the-end-holocene-or-how-to-make-out-like-a-madoff-climate-change-insurer/
The first sentence “in 150 years”. So, it has happened before. Stop reading there.
thisisnotgoodtogo,
You are right! And if Skeptical Science says so it must be true: early flowering is a sign of global cooling.
Notice also the absence of an arrow for cloud cover against a global warming indicator of increasing humidity. This means that cloud cover is independent both of humidity and thus global temperatures. That’s great because then those pesky white things do not have to be incorporated in the secret models which determine our tax rates.
Wow! Thank Goodness for Skeptical Science, at last I have an explanation for the blooming roses pushing up through the snow drifts in my back yard.
Stay Cool!
Early Spring in the Eastern US in 2010? They must be from Counter-Earth, that imaginary world on the other side of the sun. That was the Jan-Feb-Mar when Philly, Baltimore, and DC set snowfall records.
http://www.weatherwise.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/2010/July-August%202010/mega-snow-full.html
Changes in plant phenology are global and are affecting cropping plants as well as non-cultivated plants.
This study is consistent with the global trends in plant phenology so it is no big deal, except if you are a Kooler, in which case you need to explain why thousands of plants worldwide are ignoring global cooling and behaving as if the earth is getting warmer.
I understand that vintners have had to be fairly nifty because the vintages have been brought forward (in Australia by up to a month, on average). I also understand that chill factors are a headache for some cherry growers. But these are minor crops and most people can sort of live with crap wine (the vintners are agile so that would only be a short term issues). Some cherry growers will have to relocate.
An interesting thing would be to see whether there have been studies in changes in phenology of major crop types such as winter wheat and the consequent impacts.
Can’t say this is happening in New Zealand. Quite the opposite- spring is later and summer is shorter.
Way back in very early 70’s ( remember those long hot summers of Beachboys, Morris minor convertibles with the surfboard stuck up in the back?) I worked in a footwear distribution warehouse and our reps were asked by The UK based (well most imported footwear then was produced in UK) marketing office why it was that more children’s sandals were sold here than than closed footwear, whereas in UK and Europe they sold mainly closed shoes. So the rep sent off his report explaining that unlike UK/Europe our Spring/Summer was our longest season, winter’s shortest.
Can’t say the same now. Sure fashions have changed but the fact now is most kids wear closed shoes most of the year, sneakers etc, and interspersed with jandals or thongs.
Global warming? Ummm… there’s a huge storm coming through and more rain. Where is summer?