![disaster_movie06[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/disaster_movie061.jpg?quality=83)
This is funny and sad at the same time. The funny part is the fact that none of Paul Erhlich’s doom and gloom predictions about the human condition from the 70’s on have even come remotely close to true, the sad part is that the Royal Society, whose motto is Nullius in verba, Latin for “Take nobody’s word for it”, is taking the word of this doomer that can’t predict his way out of a paper bag. The focus now? You guessed it: global warming causing “escalating climate disruption”, which is unsupportable when you look at the data. Even the IPCC in their SREX report doesn’t agree with claims of “escalating climate disruption” as Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. pointed out. Plus, Nature recently went on record with an editorial saying Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming.
These facts seem to make no dent in the doomers thinking, which seems to believe we are as ill equipped as the Mayans to manage ourselves, our resources, and our environment. One wonders about their sanity.
(h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard).
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?
10 January 2013
Title:Perspective: Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?
Authors:Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich
Journal:Proceedings of the Royal Society B
Throughout our history environmental problems have contributed to collapses of civilizations. A new paper published yesterday in Proceedings of the Royal Society B addresses the likelihood that we are facing a global collapse now. The paper concludes that global society can avoid this and recommends that social and natural scientists collaborate on research to develop ways to stimulate a significant increase in popular support for decisive and immediate action on our predicament.
Paul and Anne Ehrlich’s paper provides a comprehensive description of the damaging effects of escalating climate disruption, overpopulation, overconsumption, pole-to-pole distribution of dangerous toxic chemicals, poor technology choices, depletion of resources including water, soils, and biodiversity essential to food production, and other problems currently threatening global environment and society. The problems are not separate, but are complex, interact, and feed on each other.
The authors say serious environmental problems can only be solved and a collapse avoided with unprecedented levels of international cooperation through multiple civil and political organizations. They conclude that if that does not happen, nature will restructure civilization for us.
In a statement on his website, HRH The Prince of Wales has reacted to the paper, agreeing, “We do, in fact, have all the tools, assets and knowledge to avoid the collapse of which this report warns, but only if we act decisively now. If, though, in our evermore interconnected and complex world, we are to succeed, real leadership and vision is required. It is just possible that we can rise to this challenge, but to do so we will need to adjust our world view in a profound and comprehensive way. We have to see ourselves as utterly embedded in Nature and not somehow separate from those precious systems that sustain all life. I have said it before, and I will say it again – our grandchildren’s future depends entirely on whether we seize the initiative and prevaricate no further.”
Martin Clark says on January 11, 2013 at 4:26 pm:
“The esteemed Charles really ought to get back to what he is good at, eg raising contented herds of cattle and growing rhubarb.”
Prince Charles? Be informed, people, we are dealing with someone who’s stated ambition in life is to become a tampon.
Says it all, really.
george e smith says: January 11, 2013 at 10:37 pm
‘Churchill Ghandi (sic) clash over India; which was many years later. ‘
Churchill / Gandhi was many years earlier not later, Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi was assassinated on 30th January,1948.
“It is alarming and also nauseating to see Mr. Gandhi, a seditious middle temple lawyer, now posing as a fakir of a type well known in the east, striding half-naked up the steps of the viceregal palace, while he is still organizing and conducting a defiant campaign of civil disobedience, to parley on equal terms with the representative of the king-emperor.”
– Winston Churchill, 1930
Steve Jones says:
January 12, 2013 at 1:56 am
He is a deluded fool.
Steve, that’s quite an insulting statement. Many deluded fools of my acquaintance would be most upset that you’re comparing them to Loonie Prince Charlie.
😀
There is a generalized push to take over the world (“global governance”) and a particular push at the moment into agriculture. One of the best ways to control folks is food. How many times have you heard them yell and shout that food was threatened or scarce?
One Small Problem. It isn’t.
I did a little posting yesterday that was just looking at grains. (I’m going to also look at some others, like beans, but that will be later). One of my ‘rules of thumb’ for stored food for disasters is 1 pound of dry food per person per day. (Hey, I live on top of an earthquake fault, have been through a 7.x, and used the food storage system several times… it isn’t a theoretical to me.) So I thought I’d look at what it takes to get that much food for a planet of 10 Billion people.
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/01/11/grains-and-why-food-will-stay-plentiful/
First off, it looks at the major grains and finds you can just shift what grain grows where if the climate moves warmer OR colder. Second, there are some grains suited to ‘variable’ rains and droughts. All bases covered.
Then there’s systems already being used that can double, yes, double grain production.
But the killer, for me, was just calculating how much land it would take to give 1 lb grain per person per day for a year for the planet. IF grown at USA corn tons / acre rate (that can be done with sorghum and rice too using the System of Rice Intensification) it comes out an area 800 miles on a side. Texas is 900 edge to edge.
So a square as wide as Texas and the same amount up north (what’s that? About Kansas?) can grow enough grain that every person on the planet is full.
There is no food shortage. There is no impending doom.
We choose to feed a lot of grain to cars ( 40% of US corn), cows, pigs, chickens, etc
We choose to have white fluffy bread and ice cream instead of rice, oats, and beans. In any kind of ‘food emergency’ we can change what we choose and feed the entire world from Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Tell the Malthusians that the end of the world has been called off… and they don’t need to take over world farming.
BTW, found data for India. Their millet production is way up… but they are eating much less of it. Why? It is now being fed to animals…. Even India isn’t hungry… They have surplus grain so the traditional ‘poverty foods’ are being fed to chickens…
Oh, and for the Bonny Prince who-ha and the M’s Ehrlichs: Texas doesn’t need the rest of the world. It isn’t dependent on the rest of the world. It is not in danger of collapse, nor does it even have much in the way of problems worth notice. It doesn’t need you, or anyone else, to “save it”. If you try, you will regret it. “Don’t mess with Texas”.
( I say that as a Californian who married into a Texas family and visited a few times. My first introduction to my “Texas Uncle” in the receiving line with my ‘spouse to be’ was him telling me “Hello, son. Nice to meet you. Let me tell you something; if you evah do anythang to hurt that little girl, I’m gonna hunt you down and kill you. Welcome to the family, son.” And he meant every word of it. That’s just how folks in Texas are. Friendly. Polite. Direct. And honest. He’s a great guy, btw. We’ve shared many a beer and bbq.)
Just sayin’…
Might want to try that ‘world domination’ thing somewhere else first…
[snip . . OT . . mod]
Charles will come to be known as Charles the Halfwit. His plants will bear that out as they are forced to listen to his unhinged ravings.
He is a rather nasty piece of work who constantly interferes in the democratic process*. No wonder his mother refuses to take her leave.
* http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/25/prince-charles-chelsea-barracks-planning
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/dec/16/prince-charles-letters-to-ministers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/theroyalfamily/6123976/Prince-Charles-has-abused-his-position-to-influence-planning-process-architect-claims.html
“Much is being made of (Attorney General) Dominic Grieve’s decision to ban publication of Prince Charles’ correspondence with ministers. Republic, a group which campaigns for the abolition of the monarchy, has been pressing for their release through freedom of information requests over the last seven years. Having successfully convinced three judges of the public interest in seeing the Prince of Wales’ letters, Grieve has taken the unusual step of vetoing their decision.”
Jimbo, from your quote:
This is truly awe inspiring – both that someone would take it seriously and that someone would write it in the first place.
This is exactly the same kind of woolly-headed thinking that the whole AGW thing is based on. See a trend? Draw a straight line, extend to infinity (or catastrophe, whichever comes first).
Honestly, if the world population gets low enough that humanity is facing extinction, I have to say that if people don’t do something about it they would then DESERVE that extinction. How could any sane, rational person actually extend that “trend” to zero? While there probably is a population optimum, that number is firmly rooted in culture, not resources. From what I’ve seen, people used to high density populations like India or China immigrate to new, open spaces and immediately long for the comfort of people. The wide-open spaces that many North Americans take for granted (and consider desirable) are perceived as lonely and unwanted. Personally, if I could afford it, I would be HAPPY to have a ranch somewhere 1/2 hour or so out of town… close enough to get supplies, far enough to be isolated. With enough property to wander around without encountering neighbors.
When I was a kid we went to World’s Fair 74, in Spokane, Washington. I clearly remember the giant population clock, dinging each birth, counting upwards at an alarming rate. I figured it was horrible, because I had no frame of reference. It seemed like a “population bomb” at the time, but mostly because we were being told it was. Never mind that most of that “explosion” was happening in countries that were experiencing incredible advances in food production and medical care, that even the poorest person in almost every First World nation has a better life than Royalty even just decades ago.
It’s pretty much a given that as prosperity and quality of life improves, fertility decreases. Most First-World nations are below replacement numbers, thus essentially forcing governments to open the doors to immigration just to ensure a healthy tax base. Population worriers need to consider that the only answer to overpopulation is to increase the standard of living, which is ironic given that they want to decrease living standards as a sacrifice to the AGW god.
Fertility Rates: (2.00 = minimal replacement)
Canada: 1.59
US: 2.06
Australia: 1.77
UK: 1.91
Russia: 1.61
(from http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?t=0&v=31&l=en )
As for Prince Charles, we can try, but the only combinations of words that would accurately describe him would certainly not get past moderation.
“The Artist Currently Known As Prince”
Priceless!
Willis, you just have to let Josh know about this!
You may have missed the counter argument I put because I have my doubts too. Unlike Warmists I have not nailed my flag to the mast and believe in looking at both sides of an issue.
Will we have enough food to feed 9 billion people? I don’t know but it seems that as much as 50% of the world’s food output goes in the garbage. The potential is their.
http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/environment/global-food
.
The signs of economic decline and social collapse are normally first visible in civil strife and civil wars. If you look around the world today, all of the world’s civil strife and wars are being caused by a religion, and not through food shortages, climate disruption or environmental issues.
If we wish to prevent the collapse of Western civilisation, I would suggest that all fundamentalist creeds are put through a rigorous Reformation and Enlightenment movement, where all of their more bizarre, elitest and agressive tennets are debated, dissected and destroyed one by one. Only then will we stabilise world society.
.
The Duchy of Cornwall was given to Charles on his 21st birthday and is worth at least £700 million.
However, though the Prince likes to preach he doesn’t want to contribute financially to “seizing the initiative”. The Prince’s Duchy has always avoided paying corporation tax despite being a huge commercial operation which includes agriculture, land, property development and food.
A judge recently ruled that the Duchy should pay 24% corporation tax like any normal business. The Prince disagrees and the Duchy’s tax arrangements are now being investigated.
“As well as duchy income, last year Charles received £2.2m in grants from the taxpayer to pay for his travel by private jet, helicopter and train and the upkeep of Clarence House….
“The duchy owns 53,000 hectares of land in 23 counties, including Prince Charles’s Gloucestershire home of Highgrove. It has provided incomes to successive Princes of Wales since the 14th century. The assertion that the estate is inseparable from Charles has allowed him to use its gross profits to fund private and official spending including 26 valets, gardeners and farm staff. In the past five years he has received more than £86m from the arrangement.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/dec/14/prince-charles-estate-tax-avoidance
“Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?”
Only if we can manage to shake off the leaches, parasites, sociopaths and meglomaniacs that are he!!bent on killing it.
“Frankly, we may get to the point where the only way of saving the world will be for industrial civilization to collapse.” ~ Maurice Strong, September 1, 1997 edition of National Review magazine. Strong was the Chair at the First Earth Summit in 1972 at about the same time the Erhlichs and Obama’s Science Czar, John Holdren were writing about Forced abortions. Mass sterilization. A “Planetary Regime” should assume control of the global economy and also dictate the most intimate details of Americans’ lives — using an armed international police force.
Sure sounds like they are intent on becoming Global Dictators doesn’t it? And not just dictators but dictators who will treat humans as chattel (aka cattle)
A primary weapon is the World Wild Life fund
The WWF’s Vast Pool of Oil Money
World Wildlife Fund ~ 20% of its revenue from government tax money, 10% from industry, and half from prescriptive foundations.
The WWF and the 1001 Club
Prince Bernhard and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) ~ The White Man’s Game
As we have seen as skeptics the greatest tool the elite have is condemning those who look behind the curtain as ‘Conspiracy theorists’
Seems Bill Clinton believes in ‘Conspiracies’ too. (Search Clinton and the London School of economics) When Bill Clinton delivered his acceptance speech at the Democratic convention on July 16, 1992…[he] paid tribute to the memory of his Georgetown professor…Carroll Quigley Here are excerpts from the book – Tragedy and Hope – A History of the World in Our Time, by Carroll Quigley, 1966
And the connection of Carroll Quigley to the UN Millennium Summit
Remember bill Clinton and Hillary were really pushing two pieces of legislation. The Food Safety Act that placed US agriculture under the control of the World Trade Organization and a health care bill.
If you want a way out conspiracy theory. Think of the Erhlichs and Holdren’s desire for “mass sterilization” and a “Planetary Regime” The World Trade organization’s demand for livestock Traceability and then read these articles and connect the dots.
RFID tags for Hospital Application
There’s not a lot of middle ground on the subject of implanting electronic identification chips in humans. Advocates of technologies like radio frequency identification tags say their potentially life-saving benefits far outweigh any Orwellian concerns about privacy…
[Florida] Senate Sneaks RFID Drivers License, Internet ID into Transportation Bill… this database already includes biometrics in the form of computer facial recognition data..
[UK] Every newborn baby could undergo DNA testing and have their genetic code stored in a nationwide data bank…[is] being considered by ministers, who said yesterday that genetic technology could bring about a huge change in healthcare.
If you’re a fortune teller, cheat on your spouse, or are loud in church, in New York State, the government will soon legally have the right to retrieve your DNA and put it in a DNA Databank
[Holland] Hospital dna samples may be used to help solve crimes
The Drugging of Our Children – All of a sudden, it seems, millions of American children are said to be afflicted with mental illnesses. And they’re being put on strong medications—over periods of years—as treatment. Isn’t it time we stopped and looked at what the mental health establishment is getting us to do to our children?
How Public Schools Coerce Parents Into Giving Mind-Altering Drugs To Their Children
Freedom? Liberity? Our great-grandchildren won’t know what those word’s mean, if they are still capable of think that is.
LearDog says:
January 11, 2013 at 6:49 pm
At what point does someone become notorious (in that notoriety is bad) and is shunned? How many times does one get to be wrong?
Just askin…..
——————————————————-
Don’t ask me……………..ask Obama
cn
It just could be that the Prince of Wales has put all of the Royal Chips on the marker, by precipitating the House of Winsdor into the climate debates. He is an utterly foolish fellow.
pat says: @ur momisugly January 11, 2013 at 5:40 pm
….” Let’s do the right thing by our children and the planet.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/lets-do-the-right-thing-by-our-kids-and-our-planet/story-e6frgd0x-1226551494224
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“Place the children in slave chains” ~ thinks Paul Erhlich
Friends:
I write to ask a genuine and serious question; viz.
Can anybody please tell me why any person or organisation (e.g. the RS) takes seriously the disproved Malthusian fears such as Peak Oil and the various assertions of Ehrlich?
Please note that my question does not apply to individual persons (such as HRH Prince Charles) who seek personal comfort from finding a missing purpose in life.
Richard
CodeTech says:
January 12, 2013 at 4:05 am
Jimbo, from your quote:
And in the long term—on the order of centuries—we could be looking at the literal extinction of humanity.
This is truly awe inspiring – both that someone would take it seriously and that someone would write it in the first place….
…..Personally, if I could afford it, I would be HAPPY to have a ranch somewhere 1/2 hour or so out of town… close enough to get supplies, far enough to be isolated. With enough property to wander around without encountering neighbors.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
(We bought 100 ac, 1/2 hour from any town, on a dirt road and built the house 1/4 mile from the road. After being in apartments most of my adult life – I LOVE IT!)
As to population shrinkage, if you want an increase in population you come up with a job catagory of “professional mother” (instead of welfare mother) and pay the mom to stay home and take care of her kids for the first two or three kids. Instead the culture has been changed via the mass media propaganda machine and various laws to encourage women to be workers not moms. I watched it happen.
My mother worked till her first kid and when we were old enough she hired someone to come into our home and act as housekeeper, take care of my grandmother and the kids, and answer the phone since she was a real estate broker. (Tax laws now make that impossible for mid-income families)
Growing up I NEVER expected to work my entire life and do all the housekeeping too. Add kids on top of it and you can understand why women opt for only a couple of children. With the divorce rate a woman is going to make darn sure the marriage is stable before she has that first kid. With birth control and abortion a woman now has the option of making those decisions.
Jimbo says:
January 12, 2013 at 5:00 am
Will we have enough food to feed 9 billion people? I don’t know but it seems that as much as 50% of the world’s food output goes in the garbage. The potential is their.
http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/environment/global-food
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You can blame the US government here in the USA. Thirty to forty years or more ago pig farmers had ‘garbage’ (food waste) routes and would pick up the town’s garbage, cook it to kill bacteria and feed it to the pigs. USDA regulations and USDA corn subsidies made garbage as pig food too costly and too much hassle so farmers now feed cheap corn or distillers grains (left overs from ethanol manufacture) instead. Farmers now work a full time job as well as farm so a garbage route is a time waster too.
Gail Combs says:
January 12, 2013 at 6:33 am
“Seems Bill Clinton believes in ‘Conspiracies’ too.”
Of course. Bill Clinton is a Rhodes Scholar; Rhodes scholarships are paid for by the Rhodes Foundation that runs on the fortune that Cecil Rhodes left behind. Cecil Rhodes last will (and the versions before that) contains references to a secret society to be founded to expand the dominion of the British Empire around the globe. Of course this got all mixed up with the socialist aims of the Fabians; but as Monopoly Capitalists are very comfortable indeed with socialism, no real conflict.
– – – – – – – – –
Leif,
I see the paper had an in depth peer review (sarcasm):
Congratulations to your fellow Stanford associate.
An Aside not specifically to Leif: why do I find the admirable concept ‘Nullius in verba’ inconsistent with the very concept of ‘Royalty’ as in the Royal Society and Royal Prince Charles? Something privileged?
John
The case of Jimmy Saville should tell you all you need to know. If you have wealth and connections, you can get away with anything. Even the most base of acts. As a species, we have NOT evolved. Climate realists it seems have no hope. Tragic.
Notice the small print: the paper was invited to commemorate the election of the author P.R.E. to a R.S. Fellowship (Foreign Member). Therefore one should question whether the paper has been peer reviewed.
Notice the submission date:28 November 2012, with an acceptance 10 days later on 7 December 2012. This looks to be a fast process with little time for careful refereeing.
Notice: the grey literature in reference 4 to a speech by H.R.H The Prince of Wales 5 days before submission of the paper.
I don’t wish to speak ill of the recently departed but when I was in college (’75 B.S. Environmental Science) Barry Commoner and Paul Ehrlich were THE oracles of our time. Now I’m reminded of the often misquoted George Santayana, who, in his Reason in Common Sense, The Life of Reason, Vol.1, wrote “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Nothing these two self-aggrandizing characters predicted has come to fruition. If Santayana is just too cerebral for this generation maybe Yogi Berra’s “It’s like deja vu all over again!” says it better.
richardscourtney says: January 12, 2013 at 8:30 am.
Can anybody please tell me why any person or organisation (e.g. the RS) takes seriously the disproved Malthusian fears such as Peak Oil and the various assertions of Ehrlich?
________________________________
So tell me, Rich, if there was only 1 million people on this earth, running a technological society, do you think they would have shortages of any materials or foods?? Do you think any species would be under threat from man’s intake and output, in these circumstances??
You think that by adding a name or a tag to an idea, you can demonise it. But you cannot demonise common sense.
.