Guest post by Paul Homewood
According to the Met Office, UK has just had the second wettest year on record, just behind 2000. These claims, however, are based on records dating back to 1910. The Met Office also keep a rainfall series for England & Wales, which date back to 1766, and these cast a slightly different light on the matter.
(As Scotland and N Ireland have been drier than normal, the England & Wales portion becomes particularly relevant).
Figures 1 and 2 show the annual rainfall for this series, with 10 and 30 year running averages.
Figure 1
Figure 2
The following points stand out:-
1) The wettest year was 1872, when there was 1284mm, compared to 1244mm in 2012. It was also wetter in 1768. Clearly the impression given by the Met Office, that the rainfall last year, and in 2000, is somehow “unprecedented” is not true. One is entitled to wonder why they made it.
2) The 30 year trend would suggest that rainfall was lower for most of the 19thC, but that it has been relatively stable since.
3) Both on 10 and 30 year trends, there have been many years previously at the same level as now. The wettest spell was during the 1870’s and 80’s. The 1920’s were also comparatively wet.
4) Inter-annual variability, of the sort seen in the last two years, is not uncommon, for instance 1871-72.
Seasonal Variations
Figure 3
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/
The winter graph, of course, is for Dec 2011 – Feb 2012, but shows the trend in recent years to drier winters, (not withstanding December 2012, which was much wetter). In contrast, summer rainfall has been on an increasing trend. (Figures for Spring and Autumn seem not to offer much of a trend).
The change in Winter and Summer patterns is significant because they run counter to projections made in the UK government’s Climate Change Risk Assessment, presumably put together with the help of the best brains that the Met and CRU can offer, and which forecast much reduced summer, and much higher winter precipitation.
Either their models are hopelessly wrong, or the global warming, they are predicated on, has stopped.
North v South
As the map at the top indicates, Scotland has been relatively dry, suggesting that rain belts have shifted southwards, bringing some of the rain Scotland normally gets down to England. And, of course, it is no secret to Brits that the jet stream has been shifted south of its normal position for much of the year.
Rainfall in Scotland is much higher normally than in England. Scotland usually receives about 1600mm of rain each year, compared to 855mm for England. Last year, England’s total was 1123mm, so it can be seen that Scotland has still been, by far, the wetter of the two.
Julia Slingo has been quick to blame higher rainfall on warmer temperatures. But does Scotland receive more rain than England because it is warmer? Is it surrounded by warmer seas? Her argument simply does not hold water.
I mentioned the jet stream moving south, but it would be more accurate to describe it as a meridional pattern.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/159/
Low pressure systems, that tend to move faster with a zonal flow, often become blocked with a meridional flow. for much of the year, the UK has been stuck in the “bulge” coming down from the north, at the same time, of course, as parts of the US has seen a block of high pressure.
It is pretty much par for the course, that many climatologists have been linking this phenomenon with the melting of Arctic ice. It is, however, worth bearing in mind that Hubert Lamb found exactly the same meridional jet flow in the 1960’s and early 70’s. In his volume, “Climate: Present, Past & Future”, he describes the effects of the changing climate at that time, when Arctic ice was expanding:-
…….much smaller changes over middle latitudes, where the most significant feature has been the very awkward type of variability from year to year, associated with the behaviour of blocking systems and meridional circulation patterns.
Examples of the consequences of these features include a number of serious items besides the extremes of cold and warmth, drought and flood associated with the occurrences of blocking in middle latitudes.
I cannot leave this North v South topic without highlighting what the Met Office themselves have projected. In 2011, they published a report called “Climate: Observations,projections and impacts”, which was written by a team led by a certain J Slingo. This report is absolutely clear:-
Europe shows a strong contrast in projected precipitation changes, with large decreases in the south and large increases in the north. The UK falls towards the northern region with generally increasing precipitation, with projected increases of up to 10%, though some southern parts of the UK may experience decreases of up to 5%. There is generally good agreement between ensemble members over the north of UK, but moderate agreement further south, indicating uncertainty in the position of the transition zone between increasing and decreasing precipitation over Europe.
While the exact demarcation line is not certain, they are sure that the North will be wetter, and the South drier. This is the opposite of what has happened in 2012.
It would appear that the Met have very little idea as to what will actually happen.
Extreme Rainfall
According to Slingo, “The trend towards more extreme rainfall events is one we are seeing around the world, in countries such as India and China, and now potentially here in the UK”. But is rainfall really becoming more extreme in the UK?
While UK rainfall was 15% higher than the 1981-2010 baseline, rain days were 10% higher, so two thirds of the extra rain can be attributed to more rain days, rather than “heavier” rainfall.
Nevertheless, average rainfall has increased from 7.4mm to 7.8mm per day, but this does not necessarily mean that individual days have become more extreme. For instance, swap a day, when you get a short shower, for a day when you get an inch of rain, and the average goes up. Yet an inch of rain is neither extreme nor unprecedented.
So to test these “extreme rainfall” claims, I have analysed daily rainfall records dating back to 1931 and provided by the Met, for Oxford, which lies in the very wet belt seen on the above map , in the south of England and to the west of London. Across this part of the country, rainfall last year was 31% above normal.
Figure 4
Figure 4 plots the days when rainfall exceeded 26.0mm, of which there have been 99 since 1931. The following points stand out:-
1) There appear to be more days in the lower band, up to 40mm, during the past decade.
2) During 2011 and 2012, only two days appear, at 37.0mm and 32.8mm. With 99 such days over 82 years, an average of one a year is exactly what you would expect!
3) Most significantly though, the really “extreme” days happened decades ago. The six wettest days were :-
| Date | mm |
| 10th July 1968 | 87.9 |
| 6th Sep 1951 | 84.8 |
| 22nd June 1960 | 81.3 |
| 27th June 1973 | 67.3 |
| 12th Aug 1957 | 56.1 |
| 6th Aug 1962 | 53.3 |
Figure 5
Figure 5 shows the average number of days above 26.0mm for each decade, and also for the last two years. It bears out the suggestion that there has been an increase in such days between 2001 and 2010, but that the last two years are back to normal.
Conclusions
This is the detailed sort of analysis that you won’t see from the Met Office. Instead, Slingo obsesses about global air temperatures and extreme rainfall events.
Slingo herself admits that more work needs to be done to predict long term trends. I would question, however, whether she is the right person to lead this work, if she cannot take off her blinkers.
After Note
I found a couple of pictures, drawn in 1872, of the floods at Windsor at that time. One was in January of that year and was published in the “The Graphic Magazine”. The second relates to the floods in December 1872/January 1873 and was published in the Illustrated London News on 4th January 1873.
Thursday and Friday 25th and 26th January 1872.
A view from the GWR railway viaduct towards Windsor, with the floodwater reaching the lower areas of the town.
The Floods of early January 1873 from The Round Tower
http://www.thamesweb.co.uk/windsor/windsorhistory/floods1875.html
Plus ca change!
References
1) All data on rainfall and raindays is from the Met Office.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/
2) Climate Averages
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19812010/
3) The England & Wales precipitation series is also from the Met.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/
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richardscourtney says:
January 10, 2013 at 2:01 am
Gareth Phillips:
Your entire post at January 10, 2013 at 12:46 am says
Climate is always evolving or changing. There have been rainfall records which were broken hundreds of years ago, a new record seems to crop up every 50 years or so, but when most of the new records as far as rainfall in the UK are concerned, are set in the last 12 years, does that change our view of what is happening with our climate? Yes. I agree, these things have happened before, but it is the rate of change with regard to rainfall in the UK that is of particular interest. A record rainfall once every decade or so is bearable, when it starts happening every year that’s a different matter.
The only exceptional weather-related rate of change is the frequency of Met Office reversals of its assertions.
A few years of below average rain and the Met Office predicted droughts most years.
A few months of above average rain and the Met Office predicted floods most years.
Richard
Thank you Richard, you may well be right on what you say regarding the met office, but my point is based on observation, or grounded knowledge. We know that more rainfall records have been broken in the last 12 years than at almost any other period in the record. If we ignore what the met office predicts, the actual records are still of concern and suggest we may need to adapt our infrastructure to meet changing needs. The only basis for prediction in a chaotic system such as climate and weather is observation of trends. While most rainfall records being broken in the last 12 years does not always mean a wetter period ahead, it’s an indicator of an increased chance of such a situation. It’s a method reflected in almost all risk management . When models are inaccurate we quite rightly point out that they fail in their predictions and are unreliable. However risk analysis based on observation of consistent information can be very useful in assessing what may happen in the future in a given circumstance.
I remember being woken up by the cat during the Hurricane of 1987 .Then there was another Hurricane a year later .That one was actually worse because it happened during the day when everyone was out and about .Actor Gordon Kaye Rennee from Allo Allo got hit in the head with an Estate Agents wooden sign.
Thing is the Warmist are claiming more storms and crazy weather due to hotter atmosphere.
Therefore has any one pulled the Data for Storms and Tornado’s and Hurricanes in the UK.
There was a small Tornado in Birmingham 3 years ago.Has anyone pulled the Data for Storms and Tornado’s and Hurricanes in the UK.Last bad ones was back in 1987 88.Has there been any more?
The claims by the various pro cagw bodies including the rentseeking “scientists” and friends have given up on specific forecasts and now give caveats (may, could, possibly) to their statements to cover their arses. When the scam is over the will say it was all done in good faith to avoid culpability. There are no sanctions to discourage these people.
The 1920’s were also comparatively wet.
henry says
2012-88= 1924
it fits !! just as I had expected….
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
Jimsouthlondon
I was in the met office library today and my hand hovered over a book called something like ‘tornadoes in Britain.’ a quick scan revealed many tornadoes through the centuries.I believe Britain has more tornadoes for its size than anywhere else but they tend to be small
However I I didn’t get the book but just to let you know that such a book exists.
Tonyb
Jimsouthlondon
Here is the first tornado recorded in Britain which was also the most vicious
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/2011/oct/19/weatherwatch-tornado-london-britain
It struck in 1091, yes nearly a thousand years ago.
Tonyb
Reblogged this on Tallbloke's Talkshop and commented:
This is a fine article by Paul Homewood which deserves wide coverage and perhaps longer discussion on the Talkshop.
Jimsouthlondon
Some wacky scientis reckons UK gets more tornadoes as US (per sq mile).
There again, that’s probably because we have a quango specially set up to count them.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/britain-turns-into-a-tornado-hotspot-with-100-twisters-a-year-6167818.html
Tonyb says:
I was in the met office library today and my hand hovered over a book called something like ‘tornadoes in Britain.’ a quick scan revealed many tornadoes through the centuries.I believe Britain has more tornadoes for its size than anywhere else but they tend to be small
I heard that most are out to sea.
Slingo in the news again, a minor mention:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jan/11/met-office-james-delingpole
You may (or may not – it’s OK) remember a song from the mid-60s called “Ringo.”
“Ringo” became a hit single performed by the Canadian actor, Lorne Greene, in 1964. The song tells the tale of a lawman and his relationship with a gunfighter he had nursed back to health.
“Ringo” was written by Don Robertson and Hal Blair.
As a result of all this… YOU… get a poem. I thank Lorne Greene and Julia Slingo for their inspiration.
First, to refresh your memory: “Ringo” lyrics as performed by Lorne Greene.
Followed by my original composition, “Slingo,” performed by no one.
——————
Ringo (by Don Robertson and Hal Blair)
He lay face down in the desert sand
Clutching his six-gun in his hand
Shot from behind, I thought he was dead
But under his heart was an ounce of lead
But a spark still burned so I used my knife
And late that night I saved the life of Ringo
I nursed him till the danger passed
The days went by, he mended fast
Then from dawn till setting sun
He practiced with that deadly gun
And hour on hour I watched in awe
No human being could match the draw of Ringo
One day we rode the mountain crest
And I went east and he went west
I took to law and wore a star
While he spread terror near and far
With lead and blood he gained such fame
All through the West they feared the name of Ringo
I knew someday I’d face the test
Which one of us would be the best
And sure enough the word came down
That he was holed up in the town
I left the posse out in the street
And I went in alone to meet Ringo
They said my speed was next to none
But my lightning draw had just begun
When I heard a blast that stung my wrist
The gun went flying from my fist
And I was looking down the bore
Of the deadly .44 of Ringo
They say that was the only time
That anyone had seen him smile
He slowly lowered his gun and then
He said to me “We’re even, friend”
And so at last I understood
That there was still a spark of good in Ringo
I blocked the path of his retreat
He turned and stepped into the street
A dozen guns spit fire and lead
A moment later, he lay dead
The town began to shout and cheer
Nowhere was there shed a tear for Ringo
The story spread throughout the land
That I had beaten Ringo’s hand
And it was just the years, they say
That made me put my guns away
But on his grave they can’t explain
The tarnished star above the name of Ringo
—————-
Slingo (by Rick K)
She said straight-up the sceptered land
Would soon turn into desert sand
She heard others say global warming was dead
But under her skull was a brain of lead
My brain burned as I grabbed my knife
And was sorely tempted to free my life from Slingo
I listened to her till the urge had passed
But listen hard because she talks fast
Then from dawn till setting sun
She spoke of relentless deadly sun
And hour on hour I watched in awe
No human alive could build a house of straw like Slingo
One day we met on a mountain crest
We both did what we thought best
I took to science and used my brain
While she spread terror for selfish gain
With models and forecasts she gained such fame
All through the West they fear the name of Slingo
I knew someday I’d face the test
Would brains or models be the best
And sure enough the temps came down
And water flowed all through the town
I watched my car float down the street
And I went in alone to meet Slingo
They said my brain was next to none
And my cogent thought had just begun
When I felt a blast that stung my wrists
As she beat her chest with both her fists
Clutching her forecast in her hand
“Britain will be an isle of sand!” said Slingo
They say that was the only time
That anyone had seen her smile
She slowly lowered her arms and then
She said to me “This drought won’t end”
And so at last I understood
Talking sense would do no good with Slingo
“Julia!” I said, “Your forecast’s a bust!
It’s the only thing that’s turned to dust”
A dozen taxis flowed down the road
She hopped on one as would a toad
The Met began to shout and cheer
They alone offered to buy a beer for Slingo
Julia’s drought spread throughout the land
As rain-soaked Britons could barely stand
And it was just her hubris, they say
That made me want to run away
I screamed, “Julia! On you is the onus!”
But she ignored me and went off to collect the bonus of Slingo
On Peter Thorne of the MET office, Climategate e-mails, and his advice to Kate Willett about answering an e-mail from David Bellamy. It highlight the US vs Them mentality.
If Dr Kate Willett is competent enough to write a paper you would think she is capable of defending it without someone holding her hand.
The Met office are good at one thing – and one thing only. Three-four day, up to a week forecast.
The rest they know nothing about whatsoever, so they invent it, as Jo Bastardi eloquently explains
Analysing the England & Wales rainfall data
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/daily/HadEWP_daily_qc.txt
by month shows no significant change in intensity of intensity rain by rainday nor in the number of raindays as already posted analysed by individual months, all months and annually
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/05/met-office-accused-of-misleading-public-over-rainfall-trends/.
Looking at the significant rain days (Rainfall >12.5mm) there is also no significant relationship in the individual monthly number of such events.
However the data analysed by all months and by year they show a correlation significant at the 5% level.
When analysed by decade the 8 decades starting in 1931 show no significant correlation, but starting at 1932 and 1933 there is a significant relationship over time with number of significant rain days.
Excellent article. The recent Met Office reporting on 2012 is definitely the most shameful piece of reporting on our weather and represents a ‘new low’. To refer, as they do, to the ‘history’ of rainfall data as only going back to 1910, when the England and Wales rainfall data back to 1766 are available on their own web-site is a disgrace. Looking at the data I seem to see that 2012 only ranked as the FIFTH wettest year in the England and Wales rainfall series back to 1766. The Met Office have given a provisional England and Wales rainfall total for 2012 of 1205mm (47.44 inches for our US readers) – this compares with 1284.9mm (50.58″) in 1872; 1247.3mm (49.11″) in 1768; 1232.5mm (48.52″) in 2000 and 1213mm (47.76″) in 1852
This is a good, clear account making some good, clear points. Useful!
Except this one:
“Julia Slingo has been quick to blame higher rainfall on warmer temperatures. But does Scotland receive more rain than England because it is warmer? Is it surrounded by warmer seas? Her argument simply does not hold water.”
Obviously several factors affect climate, as perhaps the Warmists begin to appreciate. In this case, I venture Scotland’s latitude and mountains may play a role…
That would make a nice, pointed little paper: “The Benign Age is Now”.