Guest post by Steve Goreham
Originally published in The Washington Times
The Mayan calendar is about to end, and with it, the world.
People love nothing more than an apocalypse. Meteor collisions, alien invasions, super volcanoes, nuclear winter, and global warming all provide great material for mass entertainment and breathless news reporting.
The latest apocalypse to capture our imagination is the idea that, along with the Mayan calendar, the world will end on the 21st day of this month. The Mayan “Long Count” calendar, which began in 3114 BC, ends on December 21, 2012. The calendar is supposedly the measure of days from the beginning of humanity to the end. As a result, some doomsayers predict the end of the world in a few days.
Proposed scientific reasons why we won’t have a merry Christmas include ejection of mass from the sun, a sudden switching of Earth’s magnetic poles, a massive meteor collision with Earth, and a sudden shift in Earth’s crust. At this very moment, people across the world are stockpiling guns, machetes, kerosene, matches, sugar, and candles in preparation for the coming disaster. But our National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) assures us that the world won’t end on December 21.
Over that last two centuries, most doomsday threats have been blamed on humanity itself.
Consider overpopulation. The Anglican minister Thomas Malthus postulated in 1798 that global population would outstrip mankind’s ability to feed itself, leading to economic disaster. Dr. Paul Ehrlich followed up with his 1968 book The Population Bomb, predicting that hundreds of millions of people would starve to death during the decade of the 1970s. But the agricultural revolution of the twentieth century and slowing population growth have confounded the predictions of Malthus and Ehrlich.
Other feared man-made catastrophes include killer air pollution, global thermonuclear war, worldwide disease pandemics, economic collapse from passing the production point of peak oil, and disaster from genetically engineered foods. While the jury is still out in some cases, these predicted catastrophes do not appear to be occurring.
But the greatest of all these fears is Climatism, the belief that man-made greenhouse gases are destroying Earth’s climate.
Alarming climate change predictions would fit well with Mayan fears, but they need a little more time. According to economist Lord Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics on the impacts of global warming: “…what we are talking about then is extended world war…People would move on a massive scale. Hundreds of millions, probably billions of people would have to move…” From environmentalist Bill McKibben: “The world hasn’t ended, but the world as we know it has—even if we don’t quite know it yet.” From Dr. James Lovelock: “…before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.”
What’s amazing is that the theory of dangerous global warming is accepted by the majority of world leaders. Today, the heads of state of 191 of the 192 nations are pursuing policies to try to stop the planet from warming. Most leading universities, NASA and other major scientific organizations, most of the Fortune 500 companies, and the news media accept the pending doom of man-made climate change. The world is spending over $250 billion each year to try to “decarbonize.”
But empirical evidence does not support the theory of catastrophic man-made warming. The 0.7oC rise in global temperatures since 1880 was matched one thousand years ago during the Medieval Warm Period, when temperatures were warmer than today. Despite increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, Earth’s surface temperatures have been flat to declining for more than 10 years. Arctic ice has been declining, but Antarctic ice, which is 90 percent of Earth’s ice, has been increasing over the last 30 years. Sea levels are naturally rising at 7‒8 inches per century, but no evidence shows that accelerating sea level rise is underway. Hurricanes and tropical storms are neither more frequent nor stronger today than in times past. Polar bear populations have more than doubled in the last 50 years.
So, complete your Christmas shopping and don’t sell your winter coat. The world may end, but not before you have to pay your taxes and your credit card bills.
Steve Goreham is Executive Director of the Climate Science Coalition of America and author of the new book The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism: Mankind and Climate Change Mania.
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If they are right, then they can claim that they know best about Global Warming. If they are wrong, then there won’t be anyone to call them on it.
Regarding the global warming stuff, – global warming doesn’t mean you will see a 10C surface temperature rise across the globe. What it means is there are more frequent local fluctuations of extremes. Take a look at different countries and look at their record high’s and low’s during the past 100 years. I lived on 3 different continents for the past 35 years and notice a strong tendency with a naked eye. In Europe, back in my home country, we never had lower than -20C in winter and higher than 28C in summer as long as me, my parents and my grand parents can recall. Yet in the last 20 years the climate has changed so drastically, that every winter nowadays brings us -30C and below, while every summer +40C heat waves.
Middle East: we used to get heat waves of 36-40C once or twice a year for a couple of days back 20 years ago but the normal summer temps would mostly keep under 30C. Nowadays, it’s almost never below 40C and most forecast stations stopped saying the exact numbers, – “above average” is the new normal.
Canada: We had over a dozen new records in Alberta in the past 5 years. Our family friends who have lived in the area for over 60 years, say that it was always very cold in winter (below -40C would be very common for at least a month or two each year) Even according to wikipedia, it’s supposed to be -35C and below for at least one month during winter in Calgary, and yet for the last 4 years we barely had a few days of those cold spells here. At the same time we had a new record high in summer 4 years ago (36+) which was the hottest day in the history.
Normally, I never trust polls and surveys as well as doomsayers. I’m a man of science and have sufficient knowledge in the field to say with confidence, that no rogue planets and no meteors are coming to destroy our planet in the near future, pole shifts or any kind of global cataclysms are expected. Unless of course, some ancient and powerful alien race is about to land and turn us all into slaves, lol.
The only real immediate danger would be gamma ray flare as a result a supernova explosion in some distant part of our galaxy. That we can’t predict or avoid in any way but the chances of such an event would be very slim.
However, the climate change is a very real thing and it’s happening right now. All you have to do is use your common sense, go outside and pay attention to what’s happening. We ARE facing a real threat and it won’t take hundreds of years till it hits us hard…
the end of the CAGW world!
Kyoto 2 decision may be illegitimate, unratifiable: Russia
LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters Point Carbon) – A U.N. decision to extend the Kyoto Protocol until 2020 may be illegitimate and is unlikely to be ratified by all nations, the Russian government said late Monday, adding that organisers “flagrantly” violated procedural rules when making the international law to tackle climate change…
http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.2107247
15 Dec: Bloomberg: Matthew Carr: Ukraine May Join Russia to Shun Kyoto as Credits Fall
Russia has appealed against the Doha decision, saying the nation’s attempts to speak at the meeting last week were improperly suppressed.
“We are highly disappointed in both the procedural violations and the conduct of business,” Oleg Shamanov, the nation’s chief climate negotiator, said in an interview in Doha as the talks drew to a close. “There will be very serious long- term consequences for the process.”…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-14/ukraine-may-join-russia-to-shun-kyoto-as-credits-fall.html
Your biggest point is that 191 of 192 countries have bought into CAGW, at least rhetorically. The last time “civilization” bought into something as a group was the witchcraft frenzy of the 14th to 17th century. Neither Islam or Christianity, both of which have or had an avowed program to bring the Word to all the world’s peoples, have been able to do this.
I hadn’t thought of the enormity of this truth before in this way.
The only other historical concept I can think of that might, just might bind eveyone, everywhere into a consensual plan at the level of CAGW, is one of self-interested, ideologically based, money-hungry power-tripping, at the expense of one’s neighbours. That …
Wait: isn’t that CAGW in a nutshell?
Killer Bees. What happened to the killer bees? They were supposed to kill us all by now.
Bryan A says:
December 18, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Dr Lovelocks prediction is likely to be proven true
“From Dr. James Lovelock: “…before this century is over billions of us will die …”
Since it is highly unlikely that anyone alive today will be alive in 2100, there will likely be almost 7 billion deaths within the next 90 years possible more like 8 or 9 given accidents and birth/ mortality rates around the world
*
Didn’t he say that last century, though? I could be wrong, but wasn’t he talking about before the end of 2000?
Why do people think the Mayans were clever enough to know what was going to happen in the future. They were not *that* great. You know, they didn’t even make cars, roads, electricity, computers etc… They just were not as great as people like to romanticise. Sure, it was good that they managed to build a couple of things and do some farming, but come on, they were not “advanced” civilization. Why on Earth anybody would think that those idiots knew what was going to happen all this way into the future is anybody’s guess.
Looks to me like they just have their own Y2K bug in their calender. But they were clever enough to make it happen way into the future. Unlike us, who designed a counting system in the 50’s (or whatever!) which would run out in 2000!
@ur momisugly Zeke Hausfather
“Alas, the Washington Times and the Washington Post are rather different publications …”
I would say: Thanks God they are different. Steve Goreham has his own column there. http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/climatism-watching-climate-science/
“Today, the heads of state of 191 of the 192 nations are pursuing policies to try to stop the planet from warming. ”
So which state is the lucky one?
“Bryan A says:
December 18, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Dr Lovelocks prediction is likely to be proven true
“From Dr. James Lovelock: “…before this century is over billions of us will die …”
Since it is highly unlikely that anyone alive today will be alive in 2100, there will likely be almost 7 billion deaths within the next 90 years possible more like 8 or 9 given accidents and birth/ mortality rates around the world”
Sarc://
Billions are going to die. Yeah the Vogon’s are coming.
Sarc off://
Doug Proctor:
At December 18, 2012 at 3:22 pm you assert
Actually there was a much more recent case than that and it was even more generally accepted than AGW is now.
It was eugenics only a century ago. And we all know what that led to.
Richard
Okay, I live in the far north of Alberta, Canada. Me and my family will definitely make it during the upcoming climate disaster. Sorry about the rest of you lot.
On the down side, I would miss my kids enjoying Christmas. On the up side, I won’t have to file with IRS.
Of course I can’t see the IRS letting me off the hook, for a little thing like the end of the world. So, I hope we are all here on the 22nd.
Cheers
The Mayan Calender, like most astrological systems, is cyclic. In a cyclical universe, there are no final endings, just a series of new beginnings. So to be fair to the Mayans, it’s a false interpretation to suggest this means the world comes to an end. It only marks the end of an age, and the beginning of a new one. It’s neither positive nor negative. In fact, failing to take into account that nature generally changes in a cyclical fashion, rather than a linear one, is part of the fallacy of CAGW. In that sense, the Mayans were actually a step ahead of a lot of our climate scientists.
But you do know that this prediction is long past? Right?
Think aboot it, there have been approx 514 leap years since Cesear invented it. The Mayans did not account for this. So without those extra days every 4 years it would be about July 28, 2013 today. Do the math, the world should have ended aboot 7 months ago. – From, You Really Can’t Fix Stupid, Timeline Photos
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
“…global warming doesn’t mean you will see a 10C surface temperature rise across the globe. What it means is there are more frequent local fluctuations of extremes.”
Well, your premise is wrong so your conclusion is going to be wrong. The debate is over global warming, not “local” fluctuations, which always happen. Local climates change constantly. The Sahara was lush and verdant 60 centuries ago. There were alligators in Spitzbergen, etc.
I recommend some study on the Null Hypothesis. That should cure your worrying. Nothing whatever unusual is occurring. In fact, the planetary climate has been especially benign over the past century and a half.
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
“Regarding the global warming stuff, – global warming doesn’t mean you will see a 10C surface temperature rise across the globe. What it means is there are more frequent local fluctuations of extremes. Take a look at different countries and look at their record high’s and low’s during the past 100 years. I lived on 3 different continents for the past 35 years and notice a strong tendency with a naked eye. In Europe, back in my home country, we never had lower than -20C in winter and higher than 28C in summer as long as me, my parents and my grand parents can recall. Yet in the last 20 years the climate has changed so drastically, that every winter nowadays brings us -30C and below, while every summer +40C heat waves.”
Most of the extreme records of the continents, highs and lows are not recent:
http://www.insidervlv.com/WeatherRecordWorld.html
My hobby’s amateur radio. A group of hams has got together to put “The Official Doomsday Station” on the air. Check out http://www.nowzerodays.com for more info (and I love their background image).
Most of the extreme records of the continents, highs and lows are not recent:
http://www.insidervlv.com/WeatherRecordWorld.html
What a hoot! The two most recent “weather world records” are COLD ones!
“At this very moment, people across the world are stockpiling guns, machetes, kerosene, matches, sugar, and candles in preparation for the coming disaster.”
Am I the only one stock piling the little hex keys you get when you buy flat pack furniture?
Really? Just me??
NASA has assured us the world won’t end on the 21st. This is a great disappointment to Chicago Cub fans.
Ok,Aikimox. I live in Minnesota – over sixty years. Can you send some of your hot air here?
INEPTOCRACY is a system of government where the least capable of leading are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.
Aikimox says:
December 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Aikimox’s anecdotal evidence of more frequent recent temperature extremes is not reflected in the climate data. This leads me to suspect the he/she is a concern troll.
James Lovelock recently retracted both his quote and his support for AGW alarmism.
Bill McKibben can’t be far behind. 🙂