Have we hit solar max?
NOAA’s SWPC recently updated their solar metrics graphs, and it seems to me like we may have topped out for solar cycle 24. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence of resurgence in any of the three metrics. Granted one month does not a cycle make, but it has been over a year now since the peak of about 95 SSN in October 2011, and there has been nothing similar since. Unlike the big swings of last solar max around 2000-2001, there’s very little variance in the signals of the present, demonstrating that the volatility expected during solar max just isn’t there.
It has been 7 years since the regime shift was observed in the Solar Geomagnetic Index (Ap) in October 2005, and the sun seems to be in a generally quiet magnetic period since then with no hint of the volatility of the past cycle.
UPDATE: Another indicator that we are at solar max is that the polar magnetic fields are about to flip, as tracked in this graphic from Dr. Leif Svalgaard. Click image to enlarge:
![WSO-Polar-Fields-since-2003[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/wso-polar-fields-since-20031.png)
Dr. Svalgaard says:
Vuk is not even wrong, as nonsense cannot carry a clear distinction between wrong and correct.
Well, we know that.
But you also say:
As for anybody claiming to find solar ‘cycles’ in non-solar data, a prerequisite for such cycles to be valid would certainly be that they are present on the Sun too.
Forgive me, but could you elaborate if this applies to Dr. Pratt’s analysis too.
Is this related to the:
Apply his filters to the sunspot number and to the heliospheric magnetic field
We would like to know the result of the filtering experiment.
On the ‘27 day thingy’: Asymmetric solar core?
Earth solid core is apparently asymmetric and has a diff rot of (I think) about 2degrees/ annum. I remember that ‘27 day thingy’ also drifts very slowly.
Do I have this straight?
A calmer sun means reduced Forbush decreases (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbush_decrease
“A Forbush decrease is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity following a coronal mass ejection (CME)…. A 2009 peer reviewed article[2] found that low clouds contain less liquid water following Forbush decreases” )?
This means more clouds, greater albedo, and more cooling, right? How much will this cool Earth by and over how long?
vukcevic says:
December 10, 2012 at 12:51 pm
“Apply his filters to the sunspot number and to the heliospheric magnetic field”
We would like to know the result of the filtering experiment.
Bug Dr. Pratt
On the ‘27 day thingy’: Asymmetric solar core?
None of those proposals have gained any acceptance. Active longitudes are still a mystery. More here: http://www.leif.org/research/Solar%20Sector%20Structure.pdf
Leif,
Cycle 23 had a Bactrian camel top (double humped) shape near maximum in both the Sunspot Number and in the 10.7 cm Radio Flux. Is it still possible or likely that this current cycle 24 will do a Bactrian camel shape near maximum?
John
The Ap regime change in 2005 is interesting and also coincides with two other regime changes.
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/?q=node/281
The current 27 day frequency in the EUV record is more pronounced and shows another regime change for SC24.
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/images/euv_27day.png
John Whitman says:
December 10, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Is it still possible or likely that this current cycle 24 will do a Bactrian camel shape near maximum?
Yes.
OK, so we seem to be entering a deep solar minimum. In fact we may even be some way into one. There seems to be something for everyone in this – sceptics will point to the flat temperatures and say ‘we told you it was the sun all along’ while mainstream will say temps would be climbing upwards were it not for the temporary solar quietness, and will take-off again when the minimum is over.
As an impartial observer (if there can be such a thing) I’ll to have to wait a decade or two to have an informed opinion. If the sun slumps but temps stay stable or inch upwards then that should make things pretty awkward for this site, given the way the Thames and half of Europe froze in previous minima. If things get clearly colder then the mainstream opinion may have to make a big shift.
Reality will probably fall somewhere in between, which would be fine if it silences some of the more dogmatic voices on both sides.
It’s all very well calling max for Cycle 24, but look at the butterfly diagram:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif . Northern spots have made it to the equator but southern ones have not. Then look at Cycle 15 in the 1910s, which also had this asymmetry, and see that maximum, which was measured at 1917.6, did not occur until the wings of the butterfly had approximately come together. So I think we are a little way away yet.
Rich.
As a hobby, I keep track of the Penticton 10.7cm flux data, including a 292-day smoothed running mean (You don’t want to know). I notice that cycles 21, 22, and 23 have 2 local peaks approx 18 months apart in the 292-day running mean, before heading downwards. I do not have an explanation or theory. There was a peak in January 2012 in the running mean. Assuming the behaviour persists, I expect another local peak around August 2013 (+/- a month). After that, the running mean will start heading downwards to the minimum between cycles 24 and 25. Note; the 2nd local peak can be lower or higher than the first,
Mor Electric Heating (@morelectricheat) says:
December 10, 2012 at 11:56 am
No, please, no, no, no. I don’t want anyone sounding the dang alarm regarding ice any more than I want them sounding the heat alarm. I don’t appreciate people SHOUTING ABOUT THE COMING LITTLE ICE AGE any more than I care for people SHOUTING ABOUT THE COMING THERMAGEDDON. Future climates are unknown, get used to it. It might cool down … but then it might not. It might heat up … but then it might not.
Take a deep breath, things are not happening fast. Let’s learn some more about the climate and give up on predictions. If the Little Ice Age cometh, we’ll deal with it. If you want to be forewarned and prepared and corner the market on fur-lined jockstraps in anticipation of future earnings, that’s up to you. Me, I take another tack. Just like with the never-ending threats of global warning, I don’t pay the threat of global cooling any mind until I see actual evidence of a shift, either up or down.
Still waiting …
w.
Dr Svalgaard – What are the signs for SC25? Is LP still on track – pointing to an imminent disappearence of sunspots? What about the other advance indicators of the future start – or non-start – of SC25? Thanks.
Dr. Acula says:
December 10, 2012 at 12:55 pm
A calmer sun means reduced Forbush decreases
Forbush decreases are rare and so will play only a minor role in anything.
Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum.
Just to sum up all of Leif’s posts for everyone.
Leif: “Quite normal.”
😉
Willis
My concern is that the world is fixated on promoting and implementing plan A. This covers the notion of what to do to combat significant warming. There are serious consequences if it turns out that what we should have been doing is to put together a Plan B to cover global cooling.
Tonyb
Jon T:
You’ve already had your answer when record cold temps occurred several years ago. The Warmists claimed the record lows were due to AGW!
phlogiston says:
December 10, 2012 at 1:27 pm
What are the signs for SC25?
No sign of SC25 yet.
Is LP still on track – pointing to an imminent disappearence of sunspots?
Yes, I think so: http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png and
http://www.leif.org/research/apjl2012-Liv-Penn-Svalg.pdf
What about the other advance indicators of the future start – or non-start – of SC25? Thanks.
Too early to tell.
Tilo Reber says:
December 10, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Just to sum up all of Leif’s posts for everyone.
Leif: “Quite normal.”
Not so, I advocate the most abnormal course of events: a coming Maunder Minimum. Livingston and Penn effect makes this cycle and the coming ones highly unusual.
The good news might be that if we experience another Little Ice Age man is better equipped to deal with it than the last one. The bad news is that a lot of money was needlessly spent. The scientists who warned of a coming ice age in the 1970s will just say “we were right the first time”.
Leif: “Not so, I advocate the most abnormal course of events: a coming Maunder Minimum.”
I agree, that would be an advocation out of the norm. However, last time I talked to you, which was probably over a year ago, you seemed to think that 25 would be bigger than 24.
Geran
All climate – and now, also all weather events – can be reduced back to AGW now. We just have to accept this. It’s “heads we win, tails we lose” for AGW, and however farcical and primary school playground it may appear to be, that doesn’t matter. It’s not science, it’s ideology evinced as fundamental religion &/or politics. A nasty and potent mix.
Tilo Reber says:
December 10, 2012 at 2:14 pm
last time I talked to you, which was probably over a year ago, you seemed to think that 25 would be bigger than 24.
Many people have latched on to that [false] notion, ignoring what was a hypothetical: if the solar maximum in SC24 would come extraordinarily early [like in 2010], then the polar fields might have time to build up and become strong, creating a strong next cycle. Since that did not happen, there is no reason to expect a strong SC25, but many reasons to expect a very weak one.
Please, y’all non-professionals, read N. N. Taleb of The Black Swan and Antifragility.
He cautions against prognostication, particularly against forecasters without skin-in-the-game, and that robust systems, cultures, are fragile to the unexpected. His collaborator Benoit Mandelbrot called reality fractally complex, thus proof against naive induction.
Willis, a pity the UN and their believers did not listen to you!
Spending billions on something that may or may not happen seems silly so I guess it really is just a political redistribution of money from people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.
I never get over the arguments I see with respect to the Sun on these pages – each of several opponents so sure they are right and their opponent is an idiot – and all for what – something we really know little about.
Time will tell – no-one really knows what is around the next corner but to not prepare some plans for either eventuality so we can adapt if necessary is akin to the grasshopper “fiddlin” throughout the Summer while the ant colony prepared for the coming Winter – Disney cartoon – can’t remember the name.
Indoor agriculture could feed us in either circumstance so to develop viable technology seems like a good thing to me – certainly better than squandering more money on already failed techniques and con schemes.
All the prior sunspot cycles had a “bactrian hump” (love it!). So far we have a dromedary. The humps are not equal, but either one can be higher. So far the total sunspot number is showing to be more like Dalton minimum. Going to Maunder would require another down cycle as well, and there is no pattern to predict that, that I can see.
Even the Maunder minimum wasn’t an ice age, but it sure got cold in the northern hemisphere. Still, predictions of another Maunder are, in my opinion, on the same level of certainty/settled science as the predictions of CAGW.
Personally, I’m looking to a cold period with increased winter precipitation in the mid-North American continent. Colder and dryer. Not so good for wheat. Same with the Ukraine area. I’m in the Sun crowd; warm is, from a Canadian, Calgary perspective, better, as well.
Wheat future up, full bellies, down.
Not a good time to be dependent on food parcels in Africa.