UK Endures Coldest Autumn Since 1993

Guest post by Paul Homewood

Autumn 2012 Mean temperature 1981 - 2010 anomaly

The UK Met Office report that the UK has just had its coldest autumn for nineteen years, leaving 2012 on course to be second coldest year since 1996.

Mean temperature in November was 0.4C below the 1981-2010 average, the third month in a row when temperatures have been well down on normal.

The average temperature for the autumn in the UK was 8.6C, compared to the long term average of 9.5C and the coldest since 1993. It is also the sixth coldest autumn in the last 50 years.

The year as a whole is currently running as the second coldest since 1996, beaten only by the exceptionally cold year of 2010. Temperatures so far in December are 2 degrees below normal, and the Met Office are forecasting that this will continue for the foreseeable future.

One of the features this autumn is just how persistent the cold weather has been. There have not been any exceptionally cold interludes, as, for instance, we saw with the heavy snow in November 2010. Instead, the weather has just been consistently cold.

image

Figure 1

Rainfall

Rainfall totals for the UK during the autumn amounted to 374mm, about 8% above normal, but nothing exceptional. For instance, this total has been beaten six times in the last 30 years.

image

Figure 2

Several areas were affected by floods towards the end of November, particularly in SW England and Wales, and the map below shows rainfall totals were well above normal there during the month.

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/

However, as Figures 3 & 4 show, the rainfall totals just experienced in that part of the country, during both November and the autumn as a whole, are actually very commonplace. Indeed, it can be seen just how variable the UK’s weather can be!

image

Figure 3

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Figure 4

Met Office Autumn Forecast

At the end of August, the Met Office 3-month outlook forecast:-

The balance of probabilities suggests that September will be slightly warmer than average whilst for the period September-October-November UK-averaged temperatures will be near the 1981-2010 climate mean.

and

For UK averaged rainfall the predicted probabilities weakly favour below normal values during September. For the period September/October/November as a whole the forecast favours a slightly higher than usual risk of above average rainfall, whilst the risk of dry conditions remains around climatological levels.

Woefully wrong on temperatures, but a bit better on rainfall. I’ll give them a C+ overall!

All Met Office data is available here.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/

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GlynnMhor

It may well be that the Landscheidt Grand Solar Minimum is showing its strength…
REPLY: Sorry but it will be named the Eddy minimum, not Landscheidt, if in fact a minimum occurs. This has already been decided by the solar science community. – Anthony

DR

Just as predicted!

Green Sand

“UK Endures Coldest Autumn Since 1993”
Thanks, I know, I lived through it!
So did my fruit and veg, hence crap yields
People talk about drought being an issue, and it is, but my problem is warmth, water I can store accumulate. Too much water and the raised beds fare better.
No sun, no warmth, no growth, simples.
If you are a grower you learn about THE limiting factors

AntonyIndia

Folks, careful as for for the true believers now anything is now a proof of CAGW. Too cold, Too wet, Too dry you name it. Next will be too average. The flock has been led to believe this by their Climate mullahs and imams through many sermons and fatwas. Too many sheep even in 2012.

P Wilson

I think it had something to do with the almighty storm in the Arctic some months ago, that broke sea ice, thus allowing heat to escape from the oceans, and thus lowering the temperature differential between the Atlantic and the Arctic, pushing the jetstream south, and opening the UK for a very cold winter, on the back of a wet summer

P Wilson

Yes, here in London, it has been chilly for over a month, and consistently chilly

catweazle666

Oh, I really can’t be bothered….
Is it worse than we thought?

P Wilson

WEll, the Met office were predicting in 2007 that the foreseeable future was “hot” and dry summers due to Anthropogenic Global Warming (wow there’s a concept from the past). Now however, they do have more caution.
They now claim that wet summers “…. could be due to natural variability – a bad run of coincidence, if you will – but climate scientists are conducting ongoing research to see if there are other factors at play.
Changes in sea surface temperatures due to natural cycles may be playing a part, but there is more research to be done before anyone can establish how big a role they play.”
which is another way of saying that they simply do not know

Eve

Surprising how well things grow here in the Bahamas. I planed tomatoes and snow pea seeds two weeks ago. Both need stakes now. Tomatoes that I planted in Toronto in April may yield a tomato or 2 before fall. This tomato crop will be ready in January,
I have listened and know that we will need to grow our own food soon.
May I add again how easy it is too use less electricity here. I have one computer and a fridge running all day, one light at night. Under $100 a month. I don’t want to do the solar panels thing. We get hurricanes here.

As I read this I realized that they were on track for “the warmest year ever…” a little bit of number crunching and “Voila! — a new high…
I did get that right didn’t I?????

RoyFOMR

This summer I got my gas-heating fixed after a couple of years of thermometric discomfort.
Dunno where Mr Homewood got his data from but, as long as I don’t venture outside ‘Chez OMR’, this UK Autumn has been markedly warmer than for some time!
Correlation is, I know, not causation but could my experience of recent-warming be due to increasing concentrations of CO2 or is it due to the increasing number of wind-turbines that I see springing up around me?
It’s all very puzzling!

thingadonta

Well, at least those formerly respected industrial scientists of the 17-20th centuries made it slightly less cold then it would have been, if they didn’t invent industrialisation and C02 use. They deserve a posthumous award for that.

A Crooks

Is there a correlation between low temperature and low rainfall?

Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings and commented:
And HuffNPuff Post is already trying to call 2012 the warmest year

“Just as predicted!”
yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.

Itstheweathercrazyfool

This is raw data, please allow for the team to adjust.
Anyway, the snow across the UK is global warming snow not real snow.
Coroners are climate deniers too, they need to be banned from determining “death by hypothermia.”, it proves they are in the pockets of Big Oil.

Werner Brozek

And HuffNPuff Post is already trying to call 2012 the warmest year
That could possibly be the case for the lower 48 states of the U.S. It is not true globally. If you are interested where the globe stands on 6 data sets so far in 2012, read on.
2012 in Perspective so far on Six Data Sets
Note the bolded numbers for each data set where the lower bolded number is the highest anomaly recorded so far in 2012 and the higher one is the all time record so far. There is no comparison.

With the UAH anomaly for October at 0.33, the average for the first ten months of the year is (-0.13 -0.13 + 0.05 + 0.23 + 0.18 + 0.24 + 0.13 + 0.20 + 0.34 + 0.33)/10 = 0.14. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.42. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.66.
With the GISS anomaly for October at 0.69, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.32 + 0.37 + 0.45 + 0.55 + 0.67 + 0.56 + 0.46 + 0.58 + 0.61 + 0.69)/10 = 0.53. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 2010 was the warmest at 0.63. The highest ever monthly anomalies were in March of 2002 and January of 2007 when it reached 0.89.
With the Hadcrut3 anomaly for October at 0.486, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.217 + 0.193 + 0.305 + 0.481 + 0.475 + 0.477 + 0.448 + 0.512+ 0.515 + 0.486)/10 = 0.411. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.548. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 1998 when it reached 0.756. One has to back to the 1940s to find the previous time that a Hadcrut3 record was not beaten in 10 years or less.
With the sea surface anomaly for October at 0.428, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.203 + 0.230 + 0.241 + 0.292 + 0.339 + 0.351 + 0.385 + 0.440 + 0.449 + 0.428)/10 = 0.336. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.451. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in August of 1998 when it reached 0.555.
With the RSS anomaly for November at 0.195, the average for the first eleven months of the year is (-0.060 -0.123 + 0.071 + 0.330 + 0.231 + 0.337 + 0.290 + 0.255 + 0.383 + 0.294 + 0.195)/11 = 0.200. This would rank 11th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.55. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.857.
With the Hadcrut4 anomaly for October at 0.518, the average for the first ten months of the year is (0.288 + 0.209 + 0.339 + 0.526 + 0.531 + 0.501 + 0.469 + 0.529 + 0.516 + 0.518)/10 = 0.443. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. 2010 was the warmest at 0.54. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in January of 2007 when it reached 0.818. The 2011 anomaly at 0.399 puts 2011 in 12th place and the 2008 anomaly of 0.383 puts 2008 in 14th place.
On all six of the above data sets, a record is out of reach.

SAMURAI

Hey! I thought that Dr. David Viner of the CRU said in 2000 that by 2002 winter snows in the UK would virtually disappear and that, “children growing up in the UK wouldn’t even know what snow is.”
Another Warmunista prediction bites the dust….
How long is this stupid hoax/fraud going to continue?????

pat

remember the Met Office hasn’t got any better since the Autumn:
5 Dec: Daily Mail: More traffic chaos on its way as forecasters predict up to six inches of snow and freezing conditions overnight
Forecasters admitted snow across the South had taken them a little by surprise…
Experts wrongly said yesterday that London and the South East would be ‘cold and dry’ with ‘scattered showers – some wintry’ in the South West…
They only predicted that snow would settle in the North, with four inches on high ground and just two inches remaining lower down by morning.
Instead, a band of snow wreaked havoc as it moved down across the south of England, with the unprepared home counties awaking to wintry scenes and travel chaos…
Met Office spokesman Mark Wilson admitted today that forecasters had not expected the extreme weather.
He said: ‘The snow has been heavier than we first thought and it has brought the snow to lower levels. It was in the forecast, but the actual snow that fell was to lower levels than we had earlier forecast.
***’This is in the nature of forecasting. It is difficult. The issue of snow was mentioned in the forecast, but on higher ground.’…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2243251/UK-weather-More-traffic-chaos-way-forecasters-predict-inches-snow-freezing-conditions-overnight.html
yes, forecasting 100 years ahead must be well nigh impossible.

That top chart sure looks like more or less trendless flat from about 1930 to now, but with a couple of warm years in the ‘oughties’ (no doubt helped by a bit of ‘adjusting’)…
Other than the USA (and only ‘east of the Rockes at that) it seems much of the rest of the world is having a bit of cold. Golly… almost like it’s all natural and the weather changes…

What-Was-That-Oh-A-Delegate-From-Doha-On-The-Slab!

[snip . . incoherence leads to content free posts.. .mod]

Pingo

The data just needs adjusting. Move along…

SandyInLimousin

“Just as predicted!”
Presumably these predictions started about 2008 just after the first big Artic ice melt and when the UK started getting normal winters again?

Jimbo

So much for the UK to expect to have a Mediterranean style climate with droughts becoming more common. Mother Nature just threw a dampener on that one – for now at least.
The Scottish ski industry is doomed and snowfalls are now just a thing of the past. 😉

“SNOWSPORTS fans should have a choice of all five of Scotland’s ski centres this weekend for the first time in the winter season.”
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-news/top-stories/scotland-s-five-ski-centres-all-open-for-first-time-this-winter-1-2680345

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/dec/07/snow-freezing-winds-expected-uk
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/dec/05/uk-weather-snow-transport-disruptions-live-blog

Fear not – “Forecasters Predict More Mild Winter for Europe”
Reuters, Nov 09, 2012
FRANKFURT – European weather in the coming winter now looks more likely to be mild than in previous studies, German meteorologist Georg Mueller said in a monthly report.
“The latest runs are generally in favor of a milder than normal winter, especially over northern Europe,” wrote Mueller, who regularly monitors energy weather on behalf of Point Carbon, a Thomson Reuters company.
“Especially January and February could get quite wet, windy and mild over Scandinavia and parts of northern Central Europe,” he added, concluding that no major cold episodes were likely. December should be the coolest month, he said.
Another energy specialist, Weather Services International (WSI) last month also said it expected mild conditions in western Europe between November and January. WSI forecasters said the likelihood of a “blocking pattern” over the North Atlantic is relatively low this winter, suggesting that Arctic air will not be forced south into Europe on a regular basis.
…. no need to worry then – they’ve got the measure of it obviously.

J Martin

REPLY: Sorry but it will be named the Eddy minimum, not Landscheidt, if in fact a minimum occurs. This has already been decided by the solar science community. – Anthony

From Wikepedia:

There was an online petition underway, organized by Anthony Watts, to be submitted to the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society in June 2009, in Boulder, Colorado by solar astronomer Leif Svalgaard

Was this an essentially US vote for a US candidate ? An attempt to bypass and pre-empt the rest of the World from having a voice or a say in any decision.
Was this the establishment closing ranks and preventing an outsider, Landscheidt, from getting the recognition he deserves ?

We had a poll, here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/22/wuwt-poll-what-should-we-call-the-current-solar-minimum/
“Svalgaard Minimum” won with 1220 votes, 49%. Leif has decided to present “The Eddy Minimum” at the next conference, even though his name was the clear winner. Thus I think we should honor and support his request. – Anthony

Did Leif Svalgaard predict the timing and extent of the minimum we now seem to entering ?
I believe he did not, and neither did Eddy.
Whilst Eddy was undoubtedly a widely influential and respected solar scientist he did not actually predict the timing or strength of the forthcoming minimum which Landscheidt did back in 1983.
From Wikipedia :

While Eddy did not predict the next significant solar minimum he did identify that we are living by the light of a variable star and it is for this reason it is said that the next significant solar minimum should be named in his honor.

. Something Kepler speculated nearly 400 years earlier.
It was Landscheidt’s extraordinary achievement and so far accurate prediction of the forthcoming minimum rather than Eddy’s modern rediscovery (Kepler) that the sun is a variable star, which in my view means that the minimum we seem to now be entering should properly be named in Landscheidt’s honour.
REPLY: But, it won’t be. Sorry. – Anthony

Jimbo

Steven Mosher says:
December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm
“Just as predicted!”
yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.

Are you saying there was big ice losses in the North Pole in the 1960s and early 1970s? 😉 You can’t have it both ways for the North Pole unprecedented lows old bean.

Stacey

The whole of the world is now in danger of entering a new ice said Professor Mad fellow and confidant of Em Mann, the celebrity planet saver who recently married Minnie Mouse.
The cause of this impending disaster is global warming, caused by rebarbative elephants breaking wind in the Sahara desert.
Professor Mad, recently awarded a Nobel prize for his random theory on Lego brick said the science is settled.

Otter

Steven Mosher says:
yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.

Morning, Steve!
Can you explain to me, then, why the mild winter of last year, was also the result of big ice losses in the NP? Or why I ‘enjoyed’ deep snows and very cold winters in the late 70s in college, when NP ice was at an ‘all time’ high?

DirkH

Steven Mosher says:
December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm
““Just as predicted!”
yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.”
I’d like to point out that the winters 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were extremely snow rich here in Germany WITHOUT big ice losses in the Arctic; those were the two winters following the double La Nina.
Is this also expected in the world of warmist science, Steven?
If so, under which circumstances can we expect NO snow? I can give you my REALIST answer, shaped by real world experience: in warming decades like the 80ies and 90ies.
What we have now are winters like in the 70ies, no matter what your XBox says.

Here you can compare England’s seasonal temperatures since 1660. Autumn’s temp’s are shown in brown, the right hand side scale.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-D.htm

I don’t have the data to hand but I believe that the technical term for the current weather is “bloody freezing” and that brass monkeys might want to be careful of losing their wedding tackle.
Anyway. I’m off out with 10 other guys to compete in a day of ultra prix outdoor kart racing. I wonder if they can fit snow chains to those things…..?

Mark

Oh, there’s definitely some adjustments happening.
Have been keeping a spreadsheet of monthly Met Office data for Scotland for years – since I started to get interested in the whole topic. That enabled me to identify that, a few years ago (approx 2009), there was a mysterious amendment to the historic record.
ALL past years were dropped by, on average, a few hundredths of a degree – 81 years at -0.03 and 9 at -0.04 out of a 104 year data set. In comparison, the 3 years since then have been increased by .01, .02 and .08 degrees since being originally published. Given the tenths of a degree we talk about on a regular basis, this isn’t insignificant.

“Bananas grow in National Trust garden of the future”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/gardening/7505950/Bananas-grow-in-National-Trust-garden-of-the-future.html
In 2010 the National Trust commissioned three paintings on the basis of Met Office predictions:

“The Met Office has warned that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow, global temperatures could rise by 2C (3.6F) rise in temperatures, making southern England’s climate similar to south-west France, while a 4C (7.2F) rise could expose gardens to conditions more like south-west Portugal.

Hope they didn’t spend too much of their members’ fees on these…

Joe Public

If the Met Office correctly used its resources to predict weather rather than construct models to try to predict climate, we’d all be better off.
Is the UK’s Met Office fit for purpose?

cui bono

Brrr. The alarmists said a few years ago that the traditional English garden of lawn and temperate scrubs would soon die off, and we should replace everything with Spanish and Moroccan heat-resistant and drought-resistant flora. Pah! At least I can look out of the window and see a unkempt lawn rather than dead palms.
And the lawn is partly covered with funny fluffy white stuff. I keep asking kids what it is but they don’t know. /s
But according to Piers “Moron” Morgan at the end of the Nye-Morano ‘debate’, the only temperature that matters is the one in New York, and that’s above normal, therefore global warming is real. ‘Pah!’ again.

David L

Wait, there’s record cold in England but the US broke over 600 high temp records around the country on one day last week. So ABC World News ran a story implying global warming. Of course the focus was on the warm US and the melting Arctic. They neglected to mention 95% of Canada covered in snow, and the cold in England.
Ii would think, though, that chilly England is a result of globule warming.

David L

SAMURAI says:
December 7, 2012 at 9:34 pm
“…How long is this stupid hoax/fraud going to continue?????”
As long as there are humans that stand to gain financially.

Jimbo

Steven Mosher says:
December 7, 2012 at 8:35 pm
““Just as predicted!”
yes, when you have big ice losses in the NP, two of the expected results are colder and more snowy winters in the NH.”

Do you have any idea what the “big ice losses” were like in the Arctic ocean in 1962????? Same for 1739/40, 1947, 1940 and 1979 (record ice extent in the Arctic in 1979.)
In 1947 snow fell every day between January 22nd to March 17th, somewhere in the UK. The Arctic must have been in a terrible state according to CAGW’s get out of jail free card.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk/8446942.stm
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=famous-winters;sess=
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/gallery/2010/dec/15/weather-big-freeze-1962-pictures
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/05/coldest-winters-britain-snow

Sam the First

As a racing fan I’m always aware when it’s particularly cold because of the numbers of cancelled meetings. This last week we’ve not only lost several jump meetings to frozen tracks, but one of the three ‘all weather’ courses has had to shut due to frozen kickback and ice balling in the horses’ hooves. that’s very rare – and unprecedented so early in the year so far as I remember

Jimbo

LOL!

BBC – 14 June, 2005
Climate may turn UK Mediterranean
…………………….
Olive groves, vines and sunflower fields could become hallmarks of the landscape in South-East England as global warming changes conditions.
Experts also say the English country garden is unlikely to survive in the South East in its present form.
Rolling lawns and herbaceous borders may be ousted by palms and eucalyptus.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4091068.stm

By the way Warmies, our Gavin Schmidt said we are to expect milder winters as a result of the greenhouse effect. Mosher says expect colder winters as the Arctic warms due to the greenhouse effect. This is called disruptive climate now I gather. LOL.
Expect warmer winters.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/20905
Expect colder winters.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013568
No matter what happens CAGW is entirely consistently inconsistent.

Mervyn

The following article is a testament to the stupidity of so called expert climate change scientists;
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
This article will forever haunt Dr David Viner. And it should be a lesson to others not to arrogantly double guess what Mother Nature will do.

After 20 years of global warming as adjusted by HadCru, GISS & NOAA (1977-96, incl), what will these corrupt gangs say when & if there be no warming or indeed cooling during the following 20 years (1997-2016, incl), et seq, as seems likely in reality if not in their cooked books? Or will they simply further adjust their secret AlGore-ithms to Mann-ufacture spurious warming?
The climate is doing what it always does, changing back & forth.

piers.d.s

You see, all we had to do was pay a few billion pounds to Tuvalu to compensate them for our CO2 emissions, and AGW problem goes away.
Government policy proved correct – hurrah!

mwhite
mwhite

“Met Office 2012 annual global temperature forecast”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/2012-global-temperature-forecast
“4 January 2012 – 2012 is expected to be around 0.48 °C warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 °C, with a predicted likely range of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.”

Chris Wright

In 2000 a Met Office scientist named Viner famously wrote that snow was becoming a thing of the past. Obviously the Met Office haven’t a clue. They are completely blinded by their obsession with CO2.
Now they have admitted that global warming is slowing down. But they still have a serious credibility and integrity gap. In effect they’re describing a parked car as a car that’s slowing down.
They’re a complete disgrace.
Chris

Silver Ralph

.
Re: UK Flooding.
Its not the rain that is the problem, but immigration. Overpopulation in the UK means that more and more housing estates are being built on flood plains.
The clue to the flooding problem lies in the name.
So then they dyke and levy the housing estates, to prevent flooding, and of course the floods then have nowhere to expand into. So the floods get deeper and faster, as the water piles up and cannot dissipate onto the flood plains.
Then, traditional towns and cities, which were purpously built above the flood plains, get flooded with the artificially deepened waters. So the Greens cry, ‘look, we have never had floods so bad as to flood Tewksbury’. Yes, well if you had not corralled the water and locked it out of its flood plains, there wouldn’t be a problem, would there.
And still Greenpeace will not campaign on population issues, as if an ever expanding population will have absolutely no effect on the environment. Numbskulls that they are.

Kev-in-Uk

I think Mr Mosher has fallen into the ‘simple explanation’ warmist mantra type syndrome.
What a silly statement/proclamation Steve! I don’t believe you can back that up with any appropriate data – even discounting you using/implying the ‘whole’ of the NH is affected by NP ice melt!
in the UK, most of our weather is dependent on the gulf stream and south westerlies! so unless NP ice melt significantly affects the gulf stream or imposes ‘blocking highs’ over northern europe – I don’t see how it can affect us very much at all.