Over the weekend we marked the third anniversary of Climategate, which occurred on November 17th, 2009. A timeline of events can be read here.
Today marks the anniversary of my most famous story, the one written hastily on my laptop at Dulles airport, published just moments before the door to my flight home to California closed, leaving me with over 5 hours of sheer offline terror wondering “what have I started?”. For all I knew there would be police waiting at the airport for me in Sacramento.
That one story created a much needed firestorm, and I’m proud to have played a part in letting the world know just what sort of people we are dealing with.
Now, as we reported this summer: Climategate investigation closed – statute limit looms, cops impotent.
The Norfolk constabulary has called off the investigation saying:
Norfolk Constabulary has made the decision to formally close its investigation into the hacking of online data from the Climate Research Centre (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in Norwich.
The decision follows a comprehensive investigation by the force’s Major Investigation Team, supported by a number of national specialist services, and is informed by a statutory deadline on criminal proceedings.
While no criminal proceedings will be instigated, the investigation has concluded that the data breach was the result of a ‘sophisticated and carefully orchestrated attack on the CRU’s data files, carried out remotely via the internet’.
Senior Investigating Officer, Detective Chief Superintendant Julian Gregory, said: “Despite detailed and comprehensive enquiries, supported by experts in this field, the complex nature of this investigation means that we do not have a realistic prospect of identifying the offender or offenders and launching criminal proceedings within the time constraints imposed by law.
“The international dimension of investigating the World Wide Web especially has proved extremely challenging.
“However, as a result of our enquiries, we can say that the data breach was the result of a sophisticated and carefully orchestrated attack on the CRU’s data files, carried out remotely via the internet. The offenders used methods common in unlawful internet activity to obstruct enquiries.
“There is no evidence to suggest that anyone working at or associated with the University of East Anglia was involved in the crime.”
The security breach was reported to Norfolk Constabulary on 20 November 2009, following publication of CRU data on the internet from 17 November onwards.
An investigation was launched by the joint Norfolk and Suffolk Major Investigation Team, led by Det Chief Supt Gregory, with some support from the The Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, the National Domestic Extremism Team and the Police Central e-crime Unit, along with consultants in online security and investigation.
The investigation, code-named Operation Cabin, focused on unauthorised access to computer material, an offence under the Computer Misuse Act 1990, which has a three year limit on proceedings from the commission of the original offence. It has been concluded by Norfolk Constabulary, in consultation with The Met, that due to outstanding enquiries this is now an unrealistic prospect.
Norfolk Assistant Chief Constable Charlie Hall, Protective Services lead, said: “Online crime is a global issue. While law enforcement agencies continue to develop our response to emerging threats, it falls upon individuals and organisations to be alert to this and and take steps to mitigate risk as far as is practicable.”
The “statutory deadline” referred to is three years, and that is now expired. With the statute of limitations now passed, and with no threat of criminal prosecution, will the person known as “FOIA” reveal him/herself? Or, will this be one of those long ongoing mysteries like the famous “deep throat” that went on for decades before finally being revealed?
Whether you choose to reveal yourself or not, we all owe you a debt of gratitude.
Jenn Oates says 19Nov2012 “What still continues to amaze is that hardly anyone has even heard of Climategate outside of WUWT-like circles. My colleagues certainly haven’t.”
Which just goes to show everybody the unique and valuable role that WUWT has played in all that has transpired ….
I’d say FOIA is an IT person.
What puzzles me is the manner of the releases. Why stagger the releases? Why the encrypted zip?
My guess is that FOIA is also a gamer.
I would like to thank FOIA for what they did. I was able to follow a few tracks that were lost after electricity deregulation because of their efforts.
Here’s a couple more thoughts:
Maybe the remaining emails contain the political and monetary influences, and he is hoping the main perpetrators might confess. I suspect that won’t happen, although it is interesting to see some folk changing sides.
Maybe, the password is sitting in some pieces computer code, sprinkled around the web, ready to be automatically released if FOIA is not around to reset the countdown timers.
Doesn’t anyone know a master hacker?
You don’t want to publicly admit you’ve committed a crime if you intend to do it again 😉
I hope that at 4am Greenwich Mean Time, a small comment appears on some blog somewhere.
I am hoping it reads something like: 1sxiR8Vh67#$deX0e@diZxW6yui&*dfVys094
and it is signed FOIA
H.R. says:
November 19, 2012 at 10:01 am
My guess is that FOIA has already published the password, you just need the pointer to where it is. Why? If someone stumbles across it, then it’s time to publish. If no one stumbles across it then I’d think it would be easier to remain anonymous by dropping dribs and drabs that make no sense by themselves but steer a few people towards discovery of the key. Otherwise, FOIA has to throw the key out and say “Here it is!” which will of course produce a mad scramble to backtrack to FOIA.
My guess is as good as anyone’s, eh?
BTW, Thanks, FOIA.
_____________________________________
You spoke my mind there. He/She has already released the password – it’s under the tips of our noses and we just aren’t seeing it.
=8-)
For the record, the “RC” at my WUWT comment here ( http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/17/beefing-up-security-on-skeptical-blogs/#comment-1059812 ) is fake. In all the complexity of ClimateGate, I never caught that FOIA was also known as RC, so when I made the Steve Milloy “I’m FOIA™” joke back in February at Michael Tobis’ Planet3 site under my RC initials, some commenter there named Frank Swifthack went so overboard with it that he created a special blog about it at his own site: http://ijish.livejournal.com/45968.html
I had no idea what he was talking about, so I looked up the RC reference among various blogs to figure it all out. At least I’m now better informed from the exercise.
Adrian Kerton says:
November 19, 2012 at 9:04 am
We’re on pace for 4°C of global warming….
__________________________________
And the Russian Academy of Sciences say temperatures will drop half a degree by 2015. Voice of Russia link
I think the Russians might have a bit more skin in the game than the World Bank who is salivating over all those Carbon Trade financal transactions.
“Hi, I’m FOIA; this is my brother Darryl, and this is my other brother Darryl.”
You’re thinking of Customer (Dis)Service, not tech support. I’ve been there done that. There was no list for us, just genuine troubleshooting.
“alexwade says:
November 19, 2012 at 9:33 am”
Many moons ago, when I was a SysOp looking after VM and MVS systems I had a call from a user. I asked them to decribe the problem they were having. This was in the day when an IBM 3270 terminal was the norm.
User “Hello, Ops”
Me “Yes. How can I help”
User “I went to lunch and have just returned. My screen is blank, with just a green line running across the bottom of the screen”
Me “Is there anying else you can tell me that you can see. Do you see what looks like a “key” shaped symbol below the line and to the right of the screen”
User “Yes, it does look like a key”
Me “Ok, your terminal is locked”
User “No! No, it’s not locked. I didn’t lock it”
Me “You will find a physical key on the right hand side panel, turn it anti-clockwise to unlock your terminal”
User “No, there is no key there”
Me “Are you sure you are looking on the right hand side panel? It’s a big metal key on the right hand side of the terminal, turn it anti-clockwise”
User “Yes, I am. There’s no key there. Oh, wait…*click*…I’ve fixed it, thankyou…*click brrrrrrrrrrrrrr…*”
Kev-in-Uk says:
November 19, 2012 at 10:40 am
“Perhaps, s/he was hoping that the science would prevail – which to a degree it has, but only really due to the lack of warming – the peddlars are still peddling! ”
They are, indeed. Just one storm, one flooding, one drought, and they are back in full force.
Just like any medicine man doing a rain-dance ‘back then’.
There’s also that small matter of the encryption key.
When you have a message or even a complete article in plain text which you know the position of in the encrypted data file that is no problem. That is assuming that you even need it given the careless use by certain well known university managers of email reply sender and reply all.
Could it also be that like a disk drive that was bought bought on ebay which I was given because it appeared half the size it said on the label, it had the windows partition dutifully multiple write wiped but the Unix partition left utterly in place with the far more contentious information left untouched on it and the climategate files were never hacked at all?
Gary Pearse says: November 19, 2012 at 7:50 am
I’m sure there are more gems to be released. It is a well that must be drying up, though…
My growing silence here (though I still read WUWT daily) corresponds exactly to discovering other wells that are NOT drying up, that are yielding a phenomenal amount of precious information, important for an energy future and for the future of Science with integrity, for which my time amongst climate skeptics has equipped me very very well with both scientific and human and spiritual and Internet-based wisdom and understanding – thanks to all of you.
Article(s) coming soon I hope. I think it is really important to see what has happened in Climate Science against a widening background where there are forces of both good and bad/evil at work, particularly through the sciences, as Eisenhower warned (because he knew things he could not say at that time). Googling “Breakthrough Energy Movement” still shows little, but enough to get you started if you like surfing.
And yes, miracles do happen, even in the thick of science. Si monumentam requiris, circumspice. I still think it possible that FOIA was a true miracle ie bending the known laws of physics in order to help a situation of distress.
Whether you choose to reveal yourself or not, we all owe you a debt of gratitude.
“Never was so much owed by so many to so few”
It’s well known that the first batch of emails were posted on a server belonging to Tomcity, an internet security company in Tomsk in Siberia. Although everyone suspected the involvement of the FSB, the Russians denied it and blamed the Chinese.
The FSB apparently provided evidence showing how the emails were posted on the Tomsk server in Russia from an Open Access server in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia run by Malaysian telecoms giant Telekom Malaysia Berhad.
As reported by the Mail Online in 2009:
“The internet address used to post the messages is linked to several others used by the Chinese — one is a Chinese environmental institute, the Research Institute of Forest Ecology and Environment Protection, based near Beijing.
“Several professors from this institute are regulars at climate change conferences where they have shared a platform with the University of East Anglia experts.
After our enquiries in Malaysia began, the suspect computer links to China were suddenly cut.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1238638/Chinese-hackers-linked-Warmergate-climate-change-leaked-emails-controversy.html
It’s possible that steganography has been used to conceal the pass key to the emails. Russians were accused of using steganography in a spying case in the US in 2010. Except that someone has to know where the pass key data is concealed for it to work, unless it’s a puzzle.
However the pass key may simply give access to multiple partitions with multiple pass keys, allowing the remaining emails to be released in batches prior to climate conferences or the next IPCC report.
Who knows, perhaps Mike Hulme wrote an email about the 28Gate meeting. Whatever happens, like the wine at Cana, the best may well have been left till last.
“Oh, turns out that Identity Concealment in the Comission of an Electronic Intrusion has a SoL of 9 years. Haha.” –hypothetical call from a police officer
Yeah, before you reveal yourself, make sure that the Satute of Limitations has passed on every conceivable charge that could be brought against you.
maybe around the release of next IPCC report?
I always thought it was an inside job. If you have that many people working with such unscrupulous people there is bound to be at least one with a conscience.
See – owe to Rich says: November 19, 2012 at 11:57 am
Bottom line is they don’t have any evidence that it was an “outside” job. All they have is their own say-so that because their lines of enquiry did not yield any details which would lead them to pursue the “inside” job option. IOW (and in their own words) it was a “screening exercise”. Excerpt from their summary of Q & A of Press Conference:
Oh, and btw … the “nature and sophistication of the attack” was not the plod’s “assessment” but that of a company called QinetIQ – who, according to the Norfolk Police, are no longer in this particular business. (Although the QinetiQ website would indicate otherwise)
Foia-2011 has a brain and knows how to use it. That leads to the necessary conclusion that they will not come forward. Too many jurisdictions and too many potential CIVIL cases as well.
They went to great (and well crafted) effort to stay unknown, they won’t be breaking that carefully crafted masterpiece for 15 minutes of fame and a lifetime in various courts around the world.
They WILL release the pass phrase should it become necessary but will likely hold it in reserve until needed. That they pre-positioned copies of the (encrypted) data globally says the knew it would be too ‘hot’ to do another file push (and may even have deleted all evidence of the original data from their computers). So a gmail account or such created from some Middle-Asian source IP address (via Onion Routing – TOR ) emailing the password to a bunch of folks on a mail list would take care of it all. Use a disposable wireless ‘dongle’ at a Starbucks hot spot somewhere and boot from a CD (so nothing left on the laptop) and it’s essentially untraceable even if the “Constable” walks in the front door and starts collecting laptops. ( Pull dongle and CD, toss in trash or pocket).
In 20 or 30 years, they will likely publish a book… after all potential statues and suits have expired.
Inside vs outside? I have my opinion, but don’t see any reason to help the folks hunting them. I know a couple of ways to do it, though. (Add in that most Universities are notoriously wide open and hackable and it is unlikely any source could be proved anyway…)
And, to quote some others, I, too, am Sparticus…
Some comments from Michael MacCracken on Linkedin yesterday
Mike MacCracken • Determining the role of human activities in climate change has been the subject of very careful research over the past few decades–part of an effort referred to as detection and attribution. The first aspect–detection–is to confirm that the climate has actually changed and its time history, spatial pattern, parameters affected, etc. This aspect is pretty well accepted, so I won’t focus on here. And it is true that there has also been a long history of changes in the Earth’s climate over its history. This is all equivalent to saying that a crime has occurred–the question is then what has caused these changes, in the past and up to the present
So, the second part of the investigation is attribution–assigning responsibility to a cause and doing so in a rigorous way that is quantitatively consistent with our theoretical understanding and with the paleoclimatic history of the Earth. That the changes are not wholly random is suggested by several types of evidence, for example: (a) most obvious, the day night cycle, indicating a response to incoming solar radiation; (b) seasonal climate varies with the amount of solar radiation through the year, with a lag created by ocean heat capacity, etc.; (c) volcanic eruptions, which lead to a whitish sulfate layer in the stratosphere, tend to cool the climate for up to a few years, roughly consistent with the amount of aerosol injected and ocean delay time; (d) the cycling of glacial-interglacial climatic conditions that follow the timing of changes in solar radiation that reaches the high latitudes of each hemisphere in winter and summer, amplified by apparent uptake and release of greenhouse gases as part of a natural feedback process; etc. And this is just a start–there are changes in climate correlated with changes in continental position, mountain heights, and more. While the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicates that internal variations can cause some modest short-term changes in the climate, most of the changes in the past climate look to be due to some factor or factors that have changed–some sort of cyclic like the orbital variations and some like volcanic eruptions (individual events, sometimes a period with many volcanic eruptions). Different factors cause different types and durations of changes, depending generally on the amount and pattern of change in the Earth’s energy balance.
So, what about climate change over the last century or two. Given that changes in climate have been identified, attribution involves identifying the possible natural and human-related factors that could have caused such changes (not only in temperature, but in the full range of variables) and the pattern of change that would be expected. The plausible possibilities for the warming that has been seen are considered to be:
1. an increase of solar radiance, which, most obviously, would be expected to warm the surface/troposphere and the stratosphere;
2. volcanic eruptions (or their occurrence decreasing)–adding a sulfate layer to the stratosphere tends to cool the surface/troposphere and warm (slightly) the stratosphere;
3. increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, which warm the surface/troposphere by absorbing and reradiating downward an increasing amount of infrared radiation, and which tend to cool the stratosphere by increasing its capacity to radiate energy (gained mainly by ozone absorbing solar radiation) away more rapidly; and
4. changes in the concentrations of tropospheric sulfate from SO2 emissions from power plants, which tends to cool the surface/troposphere.
There are other possible factors, such as changes in land cover, etc., but let me stick with the four listed factors. I’ll cover the rest in the next post.
So, now what do observations for 20th century show? The surface/troposphere system tended to warm some in the early 20th century, and then a lot since the 1970s. We also have observations that the stratosphere has been cooling pretty strongly since perhaps the 1960s. Around the times of major volcanic eruptions, there are few year dips, so the volcanic contributions can be identified, and quantitatively understood.
While an indirectly inferred increase in solar radiation and a reduction in volcanic eruptions seem roughly consistent with what happened in the early 20th century, the only way to, in a quantitatively consistent way in time, is for, as the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report said, the increase in greenhouse gases, which warm the surface/troposphere and cool the stratosphere, to be responsible for most of the warming over the last several decades. And there is a paper just published by Tom Wigley and Ben Santer in Climate Dynamics that explains this in a quantitatively rigorous way. With the stratosphere cooling, there is no way that an increase in solar radiation could be causing the warming (especially in that estimates of solar radiation have been slowly decreasing).
This detection-attribution approach has now been carried out, quantitatively, for something like 15-20 variables (atmospheric water vapor, etc.) and all give a similar picture. This is roughly equivalent to have 15 DNA matches in a criminal case.
Now, it is true that factors causing climate change in the Earth’s history, so, for example changes in the Earth’s orbital elements, but the time constants for that are a many thousands of years so not a major contributor to recent changes. Sure, there are occasionally new suggestions like cosmic rays, etc., and they get looked at, but it would be quite a coincidence for nature to be doing something at exactly the same time and controlling what is happening in a quantitative when we already have a really well-supported quantitative explanation–somehow a little cosmic change would have to cause a big response and the larger energy change due to greenhouse gases would have to have a small effect. Claiming that is likely is wishful thinking rather than science.
So, the reason the climate community is so solid on the human explanation for recent change is that the detection-attribution evidence is very strong. Representatives of the 190 countries of the IPCC have accepted the explanation as have the major academies of science. It is a very strong and rigorous analysis–it merits everyone’s full consideration.