This model run (ECMWF) has Hurricane Sandy making a near bulls-eye on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with some impact on Norfolk, Washington, and Baltimore. It has some (but not all) of the components of the devastating 1954 Hurricane Hazel, which has a few folks worried.
The good news is that the National Hurricane Center puts it further out to sea:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED AFTER SANDY MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM JAMAICA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 3 TO 5 FT CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
“East Coast Told to Beware of ‘Frankenstorm'” http://www.cnbc.com/id/49555055
While not able to predict storm behaviour precisely, “Meteorologists say it is likely to cause $1 billion in damages.”
Can we look forward to damage dollar amounts with all forecasts now?
Bring on the snow in the Mid-Atlantic region. Bright red color on white snow is tenderloin in the oven. A Men!!!
Lesson learnt from Hazel?
WOCN31 CWHX 252345Tropical cyclone information statement issued by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
At 9:00 PM ADT Thursday 25 October 2012
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
=new= Nova Scotia
=new= Prince Edward Island
=new= New Brunswick
=new= Southern Quebec
=new= Southern Ontario.
For hurricane Sandy.
The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.
This is a preliminary information statement to discuss the
Potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy nearly reached Major hurricane status last night
As it approached Cuba. The hurricane will be moving through the
Bahamas with winds in excess of 140 km/h tonight and Friday. During
the weekend Sandy is forecast to track northward while remaining at
or near hurricane strength. Sandy will begin to lose some of its
tropical characteristics early in the new week, it will however
remain a large and powerful cyclone as it shifts toward the East
Coast of the United States.
Sandy will quite likely impact parts of Eastern Canada early next
week. The track and intensity will, as always, depend on many
changing factors over a period of several days. Thus, it is too
early to meaningfully state how the storm will affect particular
areas. At this point in time we encourage consulting the forecasts
periodically during the next few days.
Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.
END/ROBICHAUD/COUTURIER
Inform the public.
Hmmm…Hundreds of thousands of Blue State voters lose power and suffer flooding just days before the Presidential election. Bad weather always suppresses Dem turnout, Dems cry foul when e.g. Scott Brown picks up his Senate seat again or Linda McMahon surprises up in Connecticut. This storm could produce far nastier damage than just the infrastructure being pummeled.
Reblogged this on Lyn Leahz and commented:
Hurricane Sandy, will it be as bad as they think?
Mike;
from your kb to God’s paddle. Go, Sandy!
Storm Sandy is sent on it’s way! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kY6uw6h2i0
The European model (ECMWF) shows Sandy passing right over western MD after it turns NW. American models are GFS. Look way down the page @ur momisugly model animations:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/
Wet snow is a possibility.
Looks like Matt is calling for strongest winds on the East coast to be Boston area…and is also predicting major prolonged power outages.
Well I wasn’t too far off. Looks like Cape May / Atlantic City with the front right quadrant hitting NE NJ and NYC.