This model run (ECMWF) has Hurricane Sandy making a near bulls-eye on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with some impact on Norfolk, Washington, and Baltimore. It has some (but not all) of the components of the devastating 1954 Hurricane Hazel, which has a few folks worried.
The good news is that the National Hurricane Center puts it further out to sea:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED AFTER SANDY MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM JAMAICA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 3 TO 5 FT CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
What this means, is, instead of initializing ‘models’ with actual measured meteorological data (radiosonde observations of temp, humidity, wind direction, inferences of ‘pressure’/altitude from ground level on-up) every 12 hours, they will do this every 6 hours.
Map of the NWS Rawinsonde Network (a really rather sparse network!) from which balloons are launched:
http://www.ua.nws.noaa.gov/nws_upper.htm
.
I’m going to work from home Friday. I’m not going to drive down US-1 to Melbourne through that stuff just to drive back home through it. Yuch. Hoping it stays offshore of Cape Canaveral!
H.R. says:
October 24, 2012 at 5:23 pm
“I know forecasting the path of a hurricane is a cr@pshoot, but this is a bit ridiculous.”
=======
The latest I’ve found:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Refresh at will, I think ?
Crapshoot indeed.
I’ve been watching this for some time now. We have a great weather guy in New England, Matt Noyes, who does a terrific job of technical analysis on his page (do a search).
Eyes have been on the “Omega” block that will be setting up out in the Atlantic, which if it happens, will keep the storm from making the traditional “right turn” and head East, out to sea.
I think this is going to be bad, period. Aug of 2011 we got hit with Irene. We were without power for about 4 days. Then we got hit with the historic Trick or Treat storm at the end of October…lost power for another 4 days. This could easily put both of those to shame, given the energy and the various systems/boundaries all coming together.
Sailing out of Baltimore on Sunday? Yeah…that ain’t happening. A friend of mine is associated with the Picton Castle, up in Lunenberg, N.S. She was due to leave port yesterday with a ship full of trainees making for the Caribbean and then Panama Canal. That ain’t happening either.
Rick, I’m about 70 miles south of you, a bit East of Worcester. Can I park my motorhome in your driveway? 😉
JimB
ducard says:
October 24, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Of course, if it does hit the coast, climate alarmists will cherry-pick that as an undeniable “proof” of AGW.
They’re already doing that.
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-next-climate-wake-up.html
Four days without power, on the run up to an election! The silence might be blissful.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Looks like a monster.
I grew up in Florida and now live in New Hampshire and all I have to say is ho-hum. Models pfffft!
If global temperatures are about the same now as 1954 we can expect another Hurricane Hazel.
UF v UGA tix in hand for JAX saturday. Go Away!!! go Away!!! Go Away!!!!!!!
Jim Butler says:
October 24, 2012 at 6:22 pm
> I’ve been watching this for some time now. We have a great weather guy in New England, Matt Noyes, who does a terrific job of technical analysis on his page (do a search).
Yes, Matt is very good. http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/ Our paths cross occasionally in person and from Email exchanges about weather obs.
> Eyes have been on the “Omega” block that will be setting up out in the Atlantic, which if it happens, will keep the storm from making the traditional “right turn” and head East, out to sea.
> Rick, I’m about 70 miles south of you, a bit East of Worcester. Can I park my motorhome in your driveway? 😉
I think it will fill up my driveway. I could ask the owner of a car shop across the street if you could park there. If your motorhome blows over he might be able to get back upright. 🙂
I’m skipping http://www.sneweatherconf.org/index.shtml this year (this Saturday). I suspect the weather briefing at the start of the conference will be better attended than usual. Matt and NECN weather folk are often there, as the conference is in Canton, not too far from NECN. Also, “A special keynote speaker will be Dr. Greg Forbes, Severe Weather Expert from The Weather Channel in Atlanta, GA, barring any severe weather outbreak at the end of October!” Oops.
The ECWWF is the only model sophisticated enough to forecast, in advance, the Omega Block over the Canadian Maritimes and a energetic Tropical/Baroclinic “perfect storm”. Big disaster possible for the Northeast.
u.k.(us) says:
October 24, 2012 at 6:04 pm
H.R. says:
===========================
Thank you. Sandy’s track will be perfectly accurate by election day (U.S.). :o)
What’s it been, 5 yrs since any hurricane landfall? (Ignoring Irene, as she deserves). It’s been saving up for a big one.
Irene wasn’t a hurricane by the time she got to us, but still produced major damage in New England. Sandy won’t be a hurricane either, from the looks of her, but based on last year’s experience, I’m not sure that provides much comfort.
This is a pretty amazing graphic of the GFS models…take a look at the size of this thing when it converges.
http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/gfs.html
JimB
Cliff Mass has a good discussion of model forecasts.
Our models..both high res and ensembles..indicate there is a real threat to the U.S., from roughly Virginia to New England. Folks in that region should pay close attention to the forecasts–which will get more certain as we get closer to landfall. Not too soon to think about preparation. There is still considerable uncertainty–and next week we could see anything from a catastrophic storm to nothing. There is considerable chance of a serious landfall since our best model is going that way and BOTH U.S. and ECMWF ensemble systems showing a considerable number of forecasts with that solution.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/10/will-hurricane-francis-make-landfall-on.html
The MSM is picking up the story since the potential impact on the northeast is substantial if the remnants of Sandy converge with the cold trough.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49546844/ns/weather
Matt Skaggs said:
“…ECMWF is the gold standard and the GFS is far behind…”
Recently there doesn’t seem to be a huge difference between ECMWF’s IFS and NOAA’s GFS.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp
This year, in particular, GFS has been a good hurricane tracker. For example, it consistently predicted a westerly track for Isaac towards Mississippi and Louisiana when other models were predicting Florida. GFS outputs are public domain, so more widely used than the very proprietary IFS.
Jim Butler said:
“Eyes have been on the “Omega” block that will be setting up out in the Atlantic, which if it happens, will keep the storm from making the traditional “right turn” and head East, out to sea.”
Where is this omega block? I don’t see it. But we do see a high pressure dome over the mid-Atlantic coast, which seems to be keeping Sandy further out to sea:
HPC analysis:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/ussatsfc_loopb.html
water vapor loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
Dave Tolleris of Weather Risk (wxrisk.com) is very accurate for the mid atlantic. He has called most of the snow storms dead on the money. And he is looking for the western track. The other sites are averaging the American and European models to push it out to sea, but Dave is saying the European model is the accurate one. And that one is bullseyeing the Mid Atlantic.
The EURO model has this combining with a strong cold front out of the midwest/canada and turning into a “Perfect Storm”, like the one from that the same named movie was based on.
The vile weather channel crew is all upset about a Cat1 hurricane possibly turning westward toward the east US coast — it’s “never happened before!!!!”
Utter bull-fritters. Hazel, Hugo, Francis, & Isabel come to mind w/o even looking up records. Jim Cantory should be ashamed working for such an organization.
philjourdan said:
“… Dave [Tolleris] is saying the European model is the accurate one. And that one is bullseyeing the Mid Atlantic.”
Tolleris (at wxrisk.com) says “It is a basic law of physics and weather that you CANNOT have two large enormous Low pressure areas located in close proximity to each other. For some reason that we cannot quite figure out the GFS seems to have problems understanding that basic laws of the weather physics.”
Well, that’s wrong. Two large low-pressure storms in close proximity tend to spiral towards each other and merge. It’s called the Fujiwhara Effect and follows from the laws of physics.
I’m pretty sure GFS can handle that because, like all data assimilation models, it incorporates the seven primitive equations that govern the evolution of the atmospheric processes (Bjerknes, 1904) which includes all of the applicable laws of physics:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_equations
Johanus – I appreciate your critique or Dave Tolleris. However “close” is a subjective term, so what you think is close may not be what he is referring to.
I was not evaluating his narrative (but do enjoy reading them), only reporting on his accuracy. And he has beaten everyone in forecasting storms in this area for the past 5 years (that I have been following him). That includes NOAA, NWS and all the local pretty boy forecasters. He may be wrong (and I really hope he is), but I cannot wait for him to be wrong. I have to plan on him being correct.
Models are all tightening up…looks like for now it’s headed straight for Long Island. Given that the strongest winds will be on the Northeast edge of the storm…R.I., Cape Cod, and most of Ct and Mass are going to be pretty exciting places to be come Monday.
Also look how long she holds onto the Cat 1 status…all the way into Monday now.
Anyone want to go deep sea fishing Monday?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html
As of now, the storm center is due to smack into New Jersey around late Tuesday morning. Batten down the hatches! Have to secure all the breakable/flyable bric-a-brac now.
so is it hitting raleigh nc