Dr. Jerome Ravetz writes in with this humorous research post job advertisement, writing:
Here’s an extract from an advertisement for a research post at the London School of Economics:
The Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science [London School of Economics] is seeking to appoint a Post-Doctoral Research Officer to contribute to the AHRC [Arts & Humanities Research Council] funded Research Project ‘Managing Severe Uncertainty’. The Research Officer will be expected to carry out supervised research within the remit of the project, with a focus on the nature and implications of scientific uncertainty and/or decision making under uncertainty, especially with regard to climate science and policy.
=====================================================
I wonder why they simply didn’t just advertise for a cat herder?
Maybe one of these guys could apply for the job:
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Easy job.
All they have to do is declare: “There is no safe level of climate change. Even a little climate change has the potential to be harmful.” Once they’ve got that accepted then a single car, or even a single breathing human being, could be declared a threat since their heat and waste emitting processes would most certainly have at least some level of effect on some small part of a defined microclimate. And since microclimates can never be *completely* walled off from the larger climate, there much be an overall effect as well.
Unless you want to get into quantum theory… hmm… I’d actually never THOUGHT of that approach until just now! LOL! Could come in useful in some of my debates!
:>
MJM
At least they have tacitly acknowledge there is uncertainty in “climate science”
Huh?
Good job MIT. Maybe reconstruction of past cycles might provide insight into potential future cycles. Is it a sine or cosine wave?
Stan: “Don’t you think the professor is a trifle cuckoo ?”
Ollie: “He is as sound mentally as you or I.”
Laurel and Hardy
Does this mean the London School of Economics has problems dealing with the concept of ‘uncertainty’? (severe or otherwise).
/sarc
“Geologsts make better intelligence officers than physicist or chemists, because they are used to making decisions on faulty data.”
Harry Hess, former Rear Addmiral, Navy reserves, geology professor at Princeton and framer of the theory of sea floor spreading.
Here’s a thought experiment: If humans lifespan was that of an insect, only about a month or two, what conclusions would they draw about “normal” weather/climate?
Would those born in the spring lament for their childern’s impending doom of a warming planet and those in the fall lament the next ice age? What generation would think they were living in “normal” times?
“… and/or decision making under uncertainty, …”
Every quant on the planet does that for a living, every second programmer knows probability theory, fuzzy logic, neuronal networks, filters that work for noisy signals… What is it with these people? We constantly manage uncertainty.
Have dartboard — will travel. Where do I send my resume?
Does it pay well?
Anthony – I’m not sure from the wording if Ravetz sent this to you and you think it is humorous, or if Ravetz is the one that thinks this is humorous?
The description seems to be a watered down version Ravetz’ PNS…. which I regard as a rather disengenuous and dangerous attempt to hijack the scientific method. Nothing humorous about it.
REPLY: He made the title of the post, “Severely unsettled science?” so I thought he thought it was humorous. I surely do. – Anthony
Oh dear, the flapping of a butterfly’s wings…
davidmhoffer says:
October 15, 2012 at 9:56 am
You sound uncertain. Have you thought about applying for the position?
I don’t understand. Since we all know “the science is settled”, there is no “uncertainty” and therefore no implications to research. This sounds like a pretty cushy job. 🙂
David L said “If humans lifespan was that of an insect, only about a month or two, what conclusions would they draw about “normal” weather/climate? ”
Exactly, excellent point. Most people don’t realize that our lifespan is really no more significant than that of an insect.
I think I am indecisive, but not really sure……..
I could be a perfect fit for this job opening :^X
Can anyone tell me how this is any different from Operations Research (OR), which Harold Larnder invented in 1938? I did OR for most of my scientific career, and this is what my job was mainly about.
Settled science is what you find on the bottom of the oceans along with all of the other shipwrecks.
decision making under uncertainty
You mean, like, playing poker?
Luther Wu wrote, “Oh dear, the flapping of a butterfly’s wings…”
Ahh! A typical Denialist! Mr. Wu, are you trying to deny that butterflies EXIST??? Or perhaps that they FLAP THEIR CUTE LITTLE DEADLY WINGS????
Hmph. At least it’s not as ridiculous a theory as that whole wacky caterpillar thing.
;>
MJM
Some of the greatest minds of the 20th century, such as Karl Popper, tried to quantify scientific uncertainty and failed.
IMO, it’s an unsolvable problem.
“I wonder why they simply didn’t just advertise for a cat herder?”
Nah , Cat herder would be overqualified for the job as while they have to be able to be able to react to and anticipate an extreme range of uncertainties at the end of the day the cat herder has to achieve an objective of having all the cats inside , I suspect the holder of the advertised position would need to be able to categorically state that all the cats were inside and cite that the presence of cat fur on the furniture confirmed it in spite of the absence of any actual cats other than those outside screaming at the back door to be let in .
What They really need is a “Stand up Philospher ”
On second thoughts, if we are talking about a theory of specifically the Earth’s climate, rather than a general theory of planetary climates, then that’s a bounded problem and perhaps uncertainty can be quantified.
michaeljmcfadden
Schroedinger’s cat clearly teaches us that parts of the world have already passed tipping points, and a passing tourist or satellite will kill us all. It is only aerosols fuzzing the view that is delaying the collapse. Stop looking.
It’s really very different. Post-normal science is an oxymoron wherein the uncertain future is treated as a certain future, while the certain past is treated as uncertain. It takes inspired leadership to manage such certain uncertainty.