![antarctic.seaice.color.000.thumb[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/antarctic-seaice-color-000-thumb1.png?resize=320%2C320&quality=75)
As you may know, I have been using Cryosphere’s Antarctic Sea Ice Area data to show the record levels of Antarctic Sea Ice.
But I just found another data set, NOAA’s Sea Ice Extent here. (thanks to commenter HaroldW at the Blackboard)
And it turns out day 265 set an all time record, and then day 266 (Sept 22nd) broke that record. Days 265 through 270 are now the 6 highest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent’s of all time (in the satellite record)!
11 of the top 15 extents are now in 2012.
Anyone wonder why NOAA isn’t making a fuss about this?
| Year | Day of Year | Ice Extent |
| 2012 | 266 | 19.45418 |
| 2012 | 268 | 19.4478 |
| 2012 | 267 | 19.44631 |
| 2012 | 270 | 19.4433 |
| 2012 | 269 | 19.41601 |
| 2012 | 265 | 19.36135 |
| 2006 | 264 | 19.35934 |
| 2012 | 257 | 19.35567 |
| 2012 | 271 | 19.35207 |
| 2006 | 267 | 19.34999 |
| 2012 | 264 | 19.34204 |
| 2012 | 259 | 19.33522 |
| 2006 | 265 | 19.3289 |
| 2006 | 268 | 19.32669 |
| 2012 | 258 | 19.31503 |
Is there any way to shame main stream media to run with this story, despite whatever embarrassment it causes?
I would just love to see it all over msm,.as it shoud be!
KR: “Not terribly surprising – this was predicted as a consequence of global warming…Increased Antarctic sea ice doesn’t balance out the huge decreases in Arctic sea ice, and as I note Antarctic ices is a not surprising effect of warming.”
Yeah, yeah, yap. If the Teams models had predicted this, then they would be trumpeting this as one of their few successes. But they haven’t so your point is moot.
I don’t believe that warm or cool is something that is a property of the Earth , there is just a change of average temperature or total energy.The ice ages are no more a sign of the earth being cool than the large amount of ice and snow we have today in the northern and southern hemisphere during the winter ,Those who go on about “warming” forget that we are in an ice age.
Here’s what’s going on: we have CAGW in the Northern Hemisphere because of increases in CO2 in the atmosphere
AND
we have CAGC (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Cooling) in the Southern Hemisphere because of increases in CO2 in the atmosphere.
Is everyone happy now?
KR says:
September 29, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Not terribly surprising – this was predicted as a consequence of global warming in 1991, by Manabe et al 1991…..
================================================================
Like has been said before, contradictory predictions will be put out about the effects of Man on the climate and, after the fact, the one that seems to fit what happened is the one that will be trotted out as “proof” of CAGW.
Thanks KR.
KR … “A recent paper in the Journal of Climate finds that most climate models erroneously predict that Antarctic sea ice extent decreased over the past 30 years, which “differs markedly from that observed.” As noted in the abstract, Antarctic sea ice has confounded the models by instead increasing over the satellite era.”
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.ca/2012/09/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-record-high.html
A discouraging cartoon in my local paper yesterday:
Panel 1: Worldwide food shortages are predicted as U.S. crops fail due to crippling drought conditions.
Panel 2: The arctic summer ice sheet continues to shrink at an alarming rate, while melting permafrost will release tons of carbon into the atmosphere.
Panel 3: We reached out to a leading climate change denier to get his comments…
Panel 4: … but he’s gone into hiding.
http://www.tricitynews.com/eeditions/?iid=i20120928070815242
Page 10.
Reply to KR
sept 29 6:56pm
Hey pal,
But what about all the other warmist papers that predicted different things? You mean all those other warmists were full of crap? Thank you for demonstarting that the overwhelming majority of warmist can’t get anything right. If a blind man throws enough darts eventually he will hit the bull’s-eye — but would we want him on our team at the local pub?
When you got to go back 21 years to find something a warmist got right (prehaps for all the wrong reasons but we won’t go into that) you are stretching it a bit.
After having had my bit of fun let me just add that I realize that “science is not made in a day” and many scientist do wait years for vindication. Science can be a very slow process indeed.
But after saying that let me also add that warmist demanding a “rush to judgment” on global warming are not good scientists — in my opinion.
Eugene WR Gallun
We all know that the CAGW crowd only looks to the ice twice each year – when it approaches the minimum.
Since the Arctic didn’t totally disappear with this year’s minimum, they’ll ignore it till the next melt season.
They’ll move on.
We can expect them to give us day-by-day listings of Antarctic sea ice values, watching each day’s drop, and comparing to the averages. And gloat every time they drop below the averages, saying “remember when they bragged about the record” and “now let’s see them deny CAGW”.
This should all happen around the first of the year (minimums for Antarctic occur about Feb). The lowest values shown on Cryosphere Today (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html) are around 1.3 million sq mi (in 1993). The highest minimum was about 2.47305 million sq mi.
The min this year (2012) was 1.96297 million sq mi, so expect unprecedented coverage somewhere around that point. And claims of Global Warming if it passes through that point.
So remember, it’s only gonna get worse – much worse…
Curious says:
September 29, 2012 at 6:06 pm
If anyone can point me to some good, foundational reading on climate science (without AGW bias),. I would be very grateful. Thanks for reading.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There was a very nice lady ( I think her tag here is Lucy Skywalker? )that linked me to her site that had some decent Climate Wars 101 stuff. She told me some of the info was dated but the overall information was helpful. I will try and find the site, or if any of the other posters know the link please pop it up.
I was you 2 years ago. I think a regular here by the name of Smokey put it best. ( Alice, welcome to the rabbit hole.) I was surprised how deep the dam hole went.
One last bit of advice. Question EVERYTHING.
What KR failed to mention:
Antarctic temperatures have been trending down for at least 15 years.
Antarctic Sea Ice has been above the “average” or “normal” line for an entire year now… Winter, Summer, doesn’t matter, the anomaly has been positive.
Antarctic land ice has also been increasing, NOT DECREASING as his theory requires in order for his theory to have any merit whatsoever.
A theory with no merit whatsoever is called a falsified hypothesis, and according to the scientific method, falsified hypotheses must be rejected.
I will agree with several of the posters that increasing Antarctic ice with warming is counter-intuitive, and that many researchers may have had different predictions. Nevertheless:
* The mechanism Manabe et al 1991 described fits the evidence – reduced vertical exchange due to a stronger halocline.
* Winter sea ice around Antarctica (when insolation is at it’s minimum) has little effect on global warming.
* Summer sea ice around Antarctica still melts back to <20% of the winter range.
* Total global sea ice is declining – any increases in Antarctic sea ice extent are dwarfed by Arctic reductions.
To put it bluntly – Antarctic sea ice increases do not contradict global warming (let alone the many other lines of evidence for that warming), and do not supply any sort of “Get Out Of Jail” card regarding the Arctic reduction. The world is warming, total sea ice is shrinking, and, not incidentally, the reduction in summer albedo is a strong feedback for further warming. Loud noises about small Antarctic winter sea ice increases notwithstanding… that’s just a distraction.
Curious says:
September 29, 2012 at 6:06 pm
http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Curious.htm
I found the information helpful. It may not be as neutral as I think you are looking for but that does not exist. You will have to read some from both sides of the street and make up your own mind with “all” the facts available to you.
Jeff D wrote: http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Curious.htm I found the information helpful. It may not be as neutral as I think you are looking for but that does not exist. You will have to read some from both sides of the street and make up your own mind with “all” the facts available to you.
Thank you, Jeff D! I will check it out.
While both Cryosphere Today and NOAA data show a record Antarctic sea ice extent, the Cryosphere Today anomaly plot shown on the WUWT Sea Ice page suggests that higher anomalies occurred in 2007 and 2010. Is it because of different measuring techniques or why is there this discrepancy?
Re Tom in Florida and ice in your drinks. Tell that to the dead astronauts in the first space shuttle crash caused by O rings frozen in a Florida frost causing catastrophic failure.
Except that this “all time record” is only for the satellite era. No record at all in my book – it’s far too short a time period to determine anything of value.
Eugene Wr Gallum: “If a blind man throws enough darts eventually he will hit the bull’s-eye”
And yet, if you think of climate models as darts, the IPCC’s models are all hitting off the dart board way too high … except for Antarctic Sea Ice … the models are off the bottom of the dart board.
(That would make a good Josh cartoon … the IPCC as blind dart thrower).
To all my fellow skeptics commenting here:
What a refreshing change from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. site this is! For all her prestige, it is my opinion that Dr. Curry knows that AGW is a fraud yet still refuses to take an unequivocal stand against it.
The physical evidence to the effect that human activity represents an infinitesimal fraction of total earthly CO2 activity, and that CO2 itself is an infinitesimal factor in climate change, is overwhelming. This is a matter of simple observation and even simpler arithmetic – you don’t have to have three Ph.D.’s in climate science to see this. And the historical record makes past fluctuations in global temperatures, such as the Medieval Warming Period, and the preceding Roman Empire and Hittite-Mycenean warm periods (to which, since I happen to hold a Ph.D. in history, I can directly and authoritatively attest) undeniable, despite the AGW scaremongers’ lies to the contrary.
Simple observations like how global temperatures have historically – and recently – varied with zero correlation to CO2 in the atmosphere. Simple observations that show that at observed temperatures and humidity, water vapor most of the time constitutes anywhere from 30 to 140 times as much of the atmosphere as does CO2 (easily calculated from the vapor pressure of water and the relative humidity). . And how does this grab you: animal respiration alone accounts for somewhere between 40 and 100 times as much CO2 emissions as fossil fuel burning (again figured simply by the amounts of animal biomass and their rates of CO2 emission per pound of body weight).
The behavior of the AGW crowd, with their unabashed lies, intimidation of skeptics, and disregard for the basics of scientific inquiry, should also call anything they say into question. The so-called “scientists” who are pushing AGW (even if they have top credentials, their conduct marks them as not being scientists) are nothing but hack politicians pushing an odious agenda which will only waste trillions of dollars that could be put to good use (such as cleaning up pollution, or investing in economic development in poorer countries), will only enrich a few elitists like Al Gore, and could very well result in millions of avoidable deaths – in effect, another Holocaust, with not dissimilar ideological roots – as the result of crippled economies and perpetuated third-world poverty.
One should be under no illusions that the AGW scaremongers care about the environment. In fact they could care less about the environment. Not only is what they propose harmful to the environment, they are using the environment solely as a guilt trip to manipulate uninformed people into going along with their reactionary agenda.
Did I say reactionary? You bet! These are people who proceed from authoritarian impulses and inhumane ideas long since discredited, who want to go back to the bad old days of tyranny and thievery of the fruits of the labor of those who produce. That fits the dictionary definition of “reactionary” perfectly. One shouldn’t be deceived by these people stealing the name of and calling themselves “liberals” – they are the diametrical opposite of true liberals, at least as the word used to be taken to mean. True liberals, 50 years ago, wanted to extend people’s rights and freedoms (Civil Rights Act, 1964) and let them keep as much of the fruits of their labor as possible (John F. Kennedy’s tax cuts, 1961). Today’s so-called “liberals” want to tax and regulate everything to death, take away our money to use for their perverse purposes, and dictate every detail of our lives. Their mendacity, hypocrisy, effrontery and sociopathy know no bounds.
There is no overstating the evil these people represent.
ALARM! HORROR!!! THE OCEANS ARE ICING OVER!!!!!
Overdone? Well, isn’t that about the same degree of stupid as “The oceans are turning acid”? And the alarmists don’t have a problem with that one.
“of all time (in the satellite record)!”
I appreciate the contextual honesty (that we wouldn’t expect from “the team” in statements about lows at the OTHER pole).
Interesting point made above. in fact there are cruise ships that go to Antarctica every summer on global warming tours. Hmmmm
Mechanism: additional _fresh_ water on the surface from more melting land ice increases the halocline gradient, reducing upwelling of warmer bottom waters transported from the tropics (the surface being cooled to the air), thus making for more sea ice. In the Southern Hemisphere _winter_, where it doesn’t affect albedo very much (sea ice around Antarctica melting almost _entirely_ during the summer). And an effect that will likely fade in importance with additional warming.
The data doesn’t support this prediction. The sea ice increases have been greatest in areas most distant from the Antarctic continent, where glacier melt will have least effect. The area to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula where glacier melt should have the greatest effect, as this is where most warming has occured and the sea ice margin is closest to shore, is in fact well below the long term average. The only place that is.
I’d say the prediction is clearly falsified.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_bm_extent_hires.png
Curious:
While the near-Antarctic sea ice figure is interesting to report, sometimes some skeptics do interpret it in unjustified manners.
A thought experiment, oversimplified and exaggerated yet illustrative:
Have two buckets. Bucket #1 is full of water, with no land (little land nearby). Bucket #2 in contrast has an internal shelf which represents land, slightly above its water level. Suppose we start bucket #2 by placing a pile of ice cubes on the shelf while having none in the water. If we warm bucket #2, we can get more ice in the water if some of the melting and sliding ice stack has pieces fall in the water. Thus warming can cause more ice in the water in in bucket #2. That is contrast to bucket #1, in which warming just causes less ice in the water.
Thus, if we warm both buckets, depending on the details and starting conditions, it is possible for bucket #1 to decrease in ice in the water while bucket #2 simultaneously increases in ice in the water. It is also possible to get those waterborne ice trends by instead warming bucket #1 and cooling bucket #2 if bucket #2 is cooled so much as to make its liquid water start to freeze. In other words, an increase in waterborne ice in bucket #2 does not in itself tell whether the bucket is warming or cooling without further analysis.
(The preceding is not meant to argue against such as Philip Bradley’s recent point but just to illustrate why I don’t think skeptics should present antarctic sea ice in isolation as an argument; with further analysis, background, and support, it can be a better argument).
With that said, however, here’s part of the real overall picture:
Arctic temperature over an entire century:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/Images/arctic_temp_trends_rt.gif
The preceding shows arctic temperatures were warmer in the late 1930s than in the 1990s.
Then, keeping that in mind, compare recent arctic ice area to the extent in the 1990s by looking at
http://www.webcitation.org/6AKKakUIo
Observe, in annual averages (not cherry-picking a single month after a storm), arctic ice extent in recent years is actually comparable to in the 1990s. But, as just illustrated, the 1990s are comparable to or rather less than the 1930s in arctic temperature. So much for grand warming of the arctic! That is despite the arctic being the spot of the greatest warming from global warming.
And there is no need to limit ourselves to looking back one century alone. See the graph, second from the top, of the past 200 to 11000 years within:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-history-a-look-at-multiple-timescales-in-the-context-of-the-shakun-et-al-paper/
Utter lack of correlation of temperature with CO2 trends is illustrated.
There are all sorts of data showing warmer past temperatures. For instance, in a study on northern Europe-Asia, the biomass of vegetation there was reconstructed to be 20% higher than now during the Holocene Climate Optimum 6000 years ago (warmer than now) and 55% higher than now during the Eem Interglacial Optimum of 125000 years ago (warmer still): http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0009254199000297
Returning to the topic of more recent arctic temperature variation, there are ocean cycles in effect as well, but http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_Part6_SolarEvidence_files/image023.gif has far more correlation than http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_Part6_SolarEvidence_files/image024.gif
The misleadingly-named TSI (“total solar irradiance”) labeled in the prior graph is far from the only factor changing. See:
http://www.sciencebits.com/CosmicRaysClimate
and
http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/forskning/05_afdelinger/sun-climate/full_text_publications/svensmark_2007cosmoclimatology.pdf
(Bonus: The above link explains why temperatures in Antarctica can go even the opposite direction of Arctic temperatures).
In the direction of contributing to terrestrial warming (via reduction in cloud seeding), there was about a 3% change in average cosmic ray flux between solar cycle 20 (1964-1976) at the height of the global cooling scare versus solar cycles 21 and 22 from 1976 to 1996 (the heart of the global warming scare).
In the late 1990s, global temperatures peaked with the 1998 El Nino. Since then, there has been a semi-high plateau of temperature (substantially cooler than prior warm periods like the Holocene Climate Optimum yet mildly warm by modern standards), but global average temperatures have been flat to declining from 1998 through 2012 (now). That is seen, for example, in http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998/plot/rss/from:1998/trend
There are all sorts of claims contrary to the preceding, contrary to what is seen in the satellite temperature data when unskewed by urban heat island effects and when unskewed by messed-up interpolation/”adjustments.” But there are all sorts of false claims in general. For example, a 1 foot sea level rise in California in 10 years is predicted (i.e. http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-06/study-says-california-sea-levels-will-rise-more-five-feet-century ), yet one can quite readily compare to reality in a few years to see how much such is fallacious junk. (Rather, during prolonged recovery from the Little Ice Age, albeit with the Modern Maximum in solar activity recently starting to plateau and taper off, global sea level rose more slowly on average in the second half of the 20th century, about 1.4 mm/year on average, than in the first half of the century, as seen in http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Holgate/sealevel_change_poster_holgate.pdf ).
In the case of cosmic rays, also see, regarding a common false claim about recent-year cloud trends which has found its way into CAGW-movement graphs and papers:
http://calderup.wordpress.com/2011/10/05/further-attempt-to-falsify-the-svensmark-hypothesis/
Curious says:
September 29, 2012 at 6:06 pm
“If anyone can point me to some good, foundational reading on climate science (without AGW bias),. I would be very grateful.”
I slipped into essentially arguing in the above rather than having the style of unbiased objective education covering everything, partially since the former was far faster to write. Unfortunately, although you have a very reasonable and good question, there is currently no single unbiased source which educates comprehensively in a time-efficient manner. There should be. But there is not. It takes many tens of hours, in practice easily hundreds of hours, to find and compile what in theory could be learned in a few hours if better organized.
Sites like drroyspencer.com , sciencebits.com , co2science.org , nipccreport.org , appinsys.com , and others are far from exactly what one would want for such but can be worthwhile reading. So is, for example:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse/history/paleoclimate/climates.html
Incidentally, while far from unbiased in style and while anti-CAGW rather than about general education, still one of the better concise summaries of some aspects is the 12-page article here:
http://www.petitionproject.org/review_article.php
While utterly biased, sometimes probably wrong, and actually too overboard, iceagenow.info can be fun variety.
In principle I could do a far better job at giving references here, having many links and references saved over time in a compilation elsewhere, but I think I’ll go to sleep now.
Even amongst scientific papers, just about all implicitly falsely treat as 0% effect one or more of the major climate influences, not even having best-guess values, by just ignoring such entirely (such as ignoring GCRs, ocean cycles like the AMO, or both depending on the paper). About the only organization large enough that they have the resources and enough pages of writing to cover everything in theory if they tried is the IPCC, but they are terribly biased and do not really try. (For instance, page 1 of chapter 7 of the NIPCC report in contrast describes the IPCC’s blatant bias in one example: http://nipccreport.org/reports/2009/pdf/Chapter%207.pdf )
Anything published anywhere prior to the 1980s is usually not intentionally biased, though, being prior to the political era. (Most of what was published in the 1980s and a lot in the 1990s is trustworthy too but not so guaranteed). Also, what is published in Russia even now is usually relatively good. For instance, the following, in English, provides a relatively accurate picture of the past century of arctic ice:
http://nwpi.krc.karelia.ru/e/climas/Ice/Ice_no_sat/XX_Arctic.htm
which includes, for example, this graph of Siberian Basin ice extent in August from the 1920s through the rest of 20th century:
http://nwpi.krc.karelia.ru/e/climas/Ice/Ice_no_sat/fig2.gif
Whoever said that the press was biassed in its reporting of sea ice levels at the two poles?
From Robin McKie in today’s British Observer (Sunday version of the Guardian)
“The impact of global warming is being felt first at the poles. This year summer sea-ice levels in the Arctic plunged to a record low and there is every sign that equally profound changes are taking place in the Antarctic.”
Absolutely uninteresting and irrelevant for climate.
The sun does not shine there in winter, so no influence on albedo.
It is the ice extent in summer that does matter.