Sea Ice News, Volume 3 Number 14 – Antarctic Sea ice near record high of 2007

While the Arctic recently set a new record low, lower than that of 2007, the Antarctic is at near record highs similar to that of 2007 according to University of Illinois Cryosphere Today data:

Here are the values:

2007.7206 1.1396104 16.2323818 15.0927715

2012.7316 1.1447686 16.2041264 15.0593576

Source: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008

At NSIDC, they show extent at near peak, and we’ll likely see a downturn begin soon:

Though, it is possible we’ll see some additional gain before the downturn starts, and a new record high for Antarctic sea ice area is still possible.

I find it interesting that we apparently have this “bipolar” relationship going on. On years of far lower than normal record lows in the Arctic 2007/2012, we have record highs and near record highs in the same years, 2007/2012.

At the blog “sunshine hours” it is reported:

Antarctic Sea Ice Area 28,255.4 sq km short of an all time record

The graph there shows 2012 and 2007 in red and blue respectively:

Ice Area is 1.964296 million sq km higher than the lowest amount ever recorded for this day in 1986.

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Günther

2011 also was a summer record low for the Arctic sea ice, but nowhere near a winter record high for the Antarctic sea ice. Perhaps you could do a more thorough analysis of that bipolar relationship. Or you could just ask Tamino.
REPLY: I just find it curious enough to make a note of. Haven’t you ever been curious Günther? I’ll continue to point out curious things that interest me, and you spend can your time over there where conformity reigns supreme instead of curiosity.
It really would matter what I said, based on your track record you’d find something not to like, it’s what you do.
I noticed you changed your name (Günther Kirschbaum) and email again. I find that curious too. Since you tend to be one of the first commenters on sea ice news, to ensure immediate delivery of whatever snark you choose, one wonders if maybe you don’t have some sort of alert system setup to watch for Sea Ice News posts on WUWT. – Anthony

u.k.(us)

Günther says:
September 27, 2012 at 10:11 pm
“…………….Or you could just ask Tamino.”
=======================
I’m asking.

spangled drongo

Anthony – Does anyone do a total global ice calculation and graph? That might be interesting.

Anthony – has anyone done a total global ice calculation/estimate plus graph over time? That might be interesting perspective.

Tim Walker

There does seem to be a concerted effort in getting out the right message. Thanks for your post Anthony. It is interesting.

Kasuha

Günther says:
September 27, 2012 at 10:11 pm
2011 also was a summer record low for the Arctic sea ice,
__________________________________________
You mean – 7th record low in 30 years? Does not sound too much like a record low to me.

John F. Hultquist

Over many years I have found the periods of late March and September to be great times to watch the atmosphere as its components adjust to the rapidly changing position of the sub-solar point. There are usually bursts of odd weather in several places. For example, this weekend and early next week in the Eastern US, weather is shaping up to be quite interesting. In recent years I’ve found the same equinox-times to show interesting sea ice changes. There is much more variation now in the yearly charts than in mid-to-late May.
The growth of sea ice about Antarctica is quite interesting because it is unconstrained spatially as is ice on the Arctic Ocean. We hear a lot about how warm this summer was in the USA and how little ice remained in the Arctic. Almost nothing is seen regarding the amount of ice around Antarctica. That is one reason why this information is worthy of posting.
When one throws in the CO2/global warming/catastrophic meme (said to rhyme with dream) things just get curiouser and curiouser!

Olaf Koenders

Aww gee.. It’s only ice – bloody useless at most times of the year. If a big chunk slides off Antarctica, it proves there’s more being added behind it to push it into the sea, not that anything’s “warming” in particular. It’s not even an important source of reflective albedo, considering the sun’s angle near the poles all year round. It’s also a large cause of storms and hurricanes because it has a powerful cooling effect on the oceans and atmosphere. When that cooling tries to mix with warm equatorial currents and water-laden atmosphere we’ll have the CAGWists sooking about all the hurricanes and tornadoes as happened most often some 50-100 years ago.
Be happy the climate’s relatively warm and stable at the moment!
I did see about a year ago on [AU]’s Catalyst TV program some aquatic malingerer (scientist) showing small holes in sea shells from the Antarctic region – obviously blaming CO2 and acidic conditions for the “corrosion”.
Has a CAGWist ever tried this experiment:
Chuck some eggshell (calcium carbonate) into a bottle of soda water. Using CAGWist CO2 oceanic “science”, the eggshell should bubble about and dissolve within minutes if all that alleged carbonic acid is really there.
Note that it doesn’t. It’ll sit there happily for months without even any pitting, let alone holes. Maybe try the same thing with a far stronger seashell..
Idiots. they’ll be waiting an eternity.
“Salt! What about salt?” they cry. Try adding some salt to soda water and see if it doesn’t boil over and lose all that precious CO2 that’s supposed to be doing all the damage.
“Heat!” they scream. OK – heat some soda water and see it bubble out all that precious CO2 again. There’s no way the oceans could become acidic due to CO2. They constantly brush against alkaline rocks and warm water can’t hang onto CO2 very well at all. The ocean PH ranges from 7.9 to 8.3. It’ll take a massive amount of any acid to even make it neutral.
Go ahead CAGWists – make my day.. 😉

Jimmy Haigh

I suspect Gunther follows WUWT on facebook.

William Martin in NZ

Nice one Anthony,some mothers do av em ae.With the ever increasing ice in the Antarctic,how long will it be before I can walk to the south pole from NZ?We need global warming in NZ,I have to stack more firewood to see me through the cold times.BTW,who is this unknown tamino guy?

What’s also interesting is to look at the current Bering Sea SST anomalies. It looks like the Bering Sea ice extent could be positioned for another whopper this winter, especially considering the predicted 2013 El Nino event doesn’t look likely to happen.
The Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are still above normal, so it would seem that Arctic Ice in the North-East section of the Ice extent probably won’t be setting any records this winter, either.
According to Dr. Spencer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation appeared to have peaked in 2011, so it would seem likely that the AO an NAO could be trending cooler in the coming decades… That also doesn’t bode well for CRUTEM4 and HADCRUT4, which were “fixed” to show the current warming trend in Northern upper latitudes.
How about those SSTs anomalies around Antarctica and in large sections of lower Southern latitudes. Things sure don’t seem very hopeful for the Warmunistas, especially considering a Maunder Minimum Event seems likely around 2020 according to Penn/Livingston…
When it rains it pours… Well…when it pours, it’s because of CAGW, of course, except when it doesn’t pour that’s CAGW, too, but when it doesn’t rain much or at all, well, that’s certainly CAGW, too… except…Well, kinda, sorta… Ohhhhh, It’s all so confusing…

Pingo

And yet over at the BBC, warmists are still talking as if the Antarctic is melting!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/09/all-eyes-on-york-after-worst-s.shtml

henrythethird

And Tamino thinks that “records” like these are unimportant, and posted an interesting chart – one from NSDIC (http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/anom2.jpg?w=750&h=483) showing the trends for both Arctic and Antarctic (and we’ve all been told the TREND is the most important metric, not the highs and lows).
The problem is, while the Arctic trend has been dropping (and has been below “zero” since about 1992), the Antarctic trend has been rising (and has been above “zero” for the same length of time).
So when we see articles like “the (x) straight month the global temp has been above the 20th century average”, why don’t we see similar articles stating the Antarctic sea ice anomalies have been above the average for about the last 20 years?
And you’re right about the yearly values – if you look at The Cryosphere Today site, and use their interactive chart, you’ll see just how close it is:
2007, day 263, 16.23238 sq km
2012, day 267, 16.20413 sq km
2010, day 227, 16.05034 sq km
This shows that three highest values have been in the last 5 years.
You know they won’t pay any attention to the peak – but each little dip below the average will be headline news (and sure-fire evidence of Global Catastrophe).
It still raises a question for the CAGW crowd – if every extreme weather or climate event seems to prove CAGW, why wouldn’t this one?

Keith Minto

I don’t usually comment on names, but this time I couldn’t resist.
Gunther, (sorry can’t do umlauts) is your last name Kirschbaum or Kirchenpflucker ?

Askwhyisitso?

The bipolar relationship does not mean if one is a record high the other has to be a record low, however, it is interesting that with ‘global’ temperatures rising, the increase in ice in Antarctica is a contradiction to the belief that global warming exists at all.

Dermot O'Logical

Some questions which spring to mind – can any commenters offer any insights?
What’s the mechanism for this inverse correlation?
Are there any models which have accurately forecast this?
Does this pattern appear anywhere in the historical record?
Thanks…..
Dermot

John Silver

Here is an interesting graph that shows what we armchair climatologists have said about the storm in August in the Arctic:
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png
Could be added to the Sea Ice page.

If warming is “global”, then surely Arctica and Antarctica should be both showing depletion of ice all year round? The AGW mob cannot be telling us that, due to AGW the Arctic will be ice free by 2050 (or whatever year it is now, as the goalposts seem to keep moving) but Antarctic ice is somehow immune to this process? Because they are ignoring what is happening in Antarctica, does that make them “Deniers” or is it just an “Inconvenient Truth”?

Mike Spilligan

Paraphrasing a recent comment from JoNova: Crisis! The Southern Ocean’s shrinking!

u.k.(us)

Günther says:
September 27, 2012 at 10:11 pm
.”…………….Or you could just ask Tamino.”
==================
Ask him what ?
To explain bipolar ice anomolies, in relation to CO2.
Cost/benefit ratios of windmills.
The money is in the pipeline, “nobody” dares to question its destination.

Australis

If globally-averaged temperatures were rising, I would expect to see globally-averaged sea ice areas decreasing apace. So why is the latter figure so obscure that nobody features it on a webpage?
When the sea ice at one pole goes up and the other pole goes down, I assume this is a warmth-distribution issue. The most obvious culprit is ocean currents, but global wind patterns might also have something to do with it. Does NSIDC study this stuff?
Why would anyone assume that a unipolar decrease was a symptom of global (as opposed to regional) temperature change?

Link between the solar activity and climate is often questioned, since data doesn’t support it unequivocally. This could be due to intermediary factors, which are often either ignored or not taken into account.
In Antarctic there is clear and without any doubt data supported link between the solar activity and changes in the Earth’s magnetic field (as I found some months ago and brought to the attention of the WUWT readers)
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/TMC.htm
The changes in the geomagnetic field come from the movements of fluid in the Earth’s core:
Jean Dickey of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena:
“One possibility is the movements of Earth’s core (where Earth’s magnetic field originates) might disturb Earth’s magnetic shielding of charged-particle (i.e., cosmic ray) fluxes that have been hypothesized to affect the formation of clouds. This could affect how much of the sun’s energy is reflected back to space and how much is absorbed by our planet. Other possibilities are that some other core process could be having a more indirect effect on climate, or that an external (e.g. solar) process affects the core and climate simultaneously.”

David Schofield

Keith Minto says:
September 27, 2012 at 11:28 pm
….. sorry can’t do umlauts……
with number lock on and using number keypad;
alt plus 132 ä (0228)
alt plus 137 ë (0235)
alt plus 148 ö (0246)
alt plus 225 ß (0223)
alt plus 129 ü (0252)
alt plus 142 Ä (0196)
alt plus Ë (0203)
alt plus 153 Ö (0214)
alt plus 154 Ü (0220)

mwhite

Remeber the Shakun et al paper? The Antarctic can predict the future

I find it interesting that we apparently have this “bipolar” relationship going on.
They have a common cause, decreased cloud cover, particularly low level cloud.The effect of decreased clouds is greater ice melt through increased insolation, and increased ice formation in winter. As BC is almost completely absent in the Antarctic, we don’t see the accelerated melt of older ice from decreased albedo we see in the Arctic, and there isn’t much multi-year ice in the Antarctic anyway.
Unfortunately climate4you’s data doesn’t go 2012, so I can confirm 2012 had a low level cloud low.
http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateAndClouds.htm#Cloud data
And reduced cloud cover is also the main cause of surface warming as Roy Spencer has documented.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/20/spencers-cloud-hypothesis-confirmed/

richardscourtney

Dermot O’Logical:
At September 27, 2012 at 11:37 pm you ask three questions. I assume several people will provide answers and I write to offer mine.
Q1.
What’s the mechanism for this inverse correlation?
A1.
Random chance in a small sample. (Weather is not the same everywhere at any time.)
Q2.
Are there any models which have accurately forecast this?
A2.
No. None. Not any.
Q3,
Does this pattern appear anywhere in the historical record?
A3.
The “historical record” is so short that any observed repetition of the pattern would be meaningless.
I await other answers with interest.
Richard

Günther

“one wonders if maybe you don’t have some sort of alert system setup to watch for Sea Ice News posts on WUWT”
I work for Interpol, Anthony. 😐
BTW, what is your view – as a trained meteorologist – on the potential consequences for weather patterns on the Northern Hemisphere, caused by the rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice (you know, extra warm waters releasing all that heat and moisture to the atmosphere in fall, the temperature gradient between the equator and the Arctic becoming smaller, jet stream slowing down, becoming wavier, etc)? There’s an ever increasing amount of talk about that, which probably won’t decrease as the decline in the thickness of the ice cover is increasingly noticeable in sea ice area and extent numbers, no matter what the weather patterns are. And the rapid spring melt of snow on NH land masses doesn’t help either. WUWT?

Looking at the above chart, the ice seems to swing between about 2msqk to about 16msqk each year. Remarkably stable if you ask me.
Nothing to see here folks, move on.

richardscourtney

Günther:
At September 28, 2012 at 1:45 am you list a load of speculation and say

There’s an ever increasing amount of talk about that,

Yes, I have noticed that, too. It is clearly an indication of an increasing amount of desperation among warmists as nothing they have predicted has come to pass and there are no signs that anything they have predicted is likely to happen.
Richard

I do like the Antarctic news. It goes some way to confirm the seesaw of sea ice cover between both poles. Yes it would be good to see a graph of total sea ice. Help sink the alarmism.

Günther says:
September 27, 2012 at 10:11 pm
….
You recommend Grant Foster (‘prince’ Tamino) !?
He isn’t true scientist, he is just an agit-prop peon in service of his masters. When encountered by a problem (on Gavin’s RealClimate) similar to one shown here
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/MidSummer-MidWinter.htm
he could only retort with primitive, vulgar and abusive language.. For good measure he was joined by his good friend Daniel Bailey from Skeptical Science.
Gavin not only had to step in and inform both of these ‘science wizards’ that data is correct and, and then promptly deleted their abusive garbage.
As ‘true scientists’ both took an exception to this and didn’t come back to the RC for number of weeks or possibly months following the incident
Günther, just to mention, I am not in the Gavin’s Xmas address book.

Jimbo

It’s worse than we thought!

13 April 2012.
Emperor penguins in Antarctica are far more plentiful than previously thought, a study that used extremely high-resolution imagery snapped by satellites has revealed.
“It surprised us that we approximately doubled the population estimate,” said Peter Fretwell, a scientist with the British Antarctic Survey and lead author of a paper published today in the journal PLoS One.
http://news.discovery.com/animals/emperor-penguins-antarctica-count-120413.html

[My bold]
Further references:
http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/17923/
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=1786
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17707200

Richard M

I think Günther’s response is quite telling. Given “warm waters releasing all that heat and moisture to the atmosphere in fall”, I would expect increased snowfall. The Arctic is too cold for the “heat” to turn much of the increased precipitation to rain. In addition, since we generally regain most of the ice extent during the winter there’s no logical reason to assume a “rapid spring melt of snow” will occur on a regular basis. The net would likely be increased albedo over northern land masses.
It interesting that the warmists are trying to spin this into something that supports “the cause”.

Frank K.

Günther says:
September 28, 2012 at 1:45 am
“…caused by the rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice…”
Gunther – get a grip! The arctic sea ice is NOT retreating – it’s freezing back up as we speak, just like it always has (and always will). Do you remember the record amounts of snow and brutally cold conditions Alaska got earlier this year? WUWT? Arctic ice is NOT worth worrying about – there are MANY more important problems in this world (none of which involve climate “science”).

David

Gunther says…“warm waters releasing all that heat and moisture to the atmosphere in fall”
So is this, along with the increasing N.H snow cover ( http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/05/15/ipcc-forecast-decreasing-winter-snowcover/
a negative (cooling) affect.? Most notably true when you consider that SH ice is at lower latitudes then NH ice, and during the SH sea ice melt the sun is closer to the earth so increased SH ice reflects sun light which is both more direct and intense. (Up to 7 percent more intense)

Steve

Last winter, just as Arctic sea ice was poised to set a high record, the methodology of the data set was ‘corrected’ and the new high record was averted. Since then the slope of Arctic ice extent has not followed the trend of the previous years.
I was not surprised that a new low was established. Perhaps another instance of “hide the” correct data?.

Kelvin Vaughan

We have reached the tipping point. Here comes the cold!

Tim Clark

Günther says:
jet stream slowing down, becoming wavier, etc)?
BS? Data link please!

beng

****
Günther says:
September 28, 2012 at 1:45 am
BTW, what is your view – as a trained meteorologist – on the potential consequences for weather patterns on the Northern Hemisphere, caused by the rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice (you know, extra warm waters releasing all that heat and moisture to the atmosphere in fall, the temperature gradient between the equator and the Arctic becoming smaller, jet stream slowing down, becoming wavier, etc)?
****
Childish baiting. Go back to Closed-Mind.

The other Phil

I’ve long presumed that the overall earth temperature, was approximately constant. A region significantly warmer than average is likely to be offset by another region cooler than average. Those regions don’t have to be antipodal. If they happen to be then low ice in one pole will correspond with higher ice on the other pole, but it could be, in the case of 2011, that low ice at the North pole corresponded with a region of cooler than usual temperatures in Africa or the south pacific or elsewhere.

Pamela Gray

An interesting point made further up. The Antarctic is indeed unconstrained by land in its winter coat of sea ice. Any trends could be delved into for possible markers of, wait for it, natural oscillations. In the winter Arctic, not so much given the constraints of land.
Should such markers be found in Antarctica, a nonsensical argument would reign King and be the butt of jokes on late night TV. Anthropogenic global warming would have to be given sentient thinking, showing its hand by having it in for the North.

Frank K.

Kelvin Vaughan says:
September 28, 2012 at 6:37 am
“We have reached the tipping point. Here comes the cold!”
Yes – it’s called Fall/Winter 🙂
I predict that the temperatures in the northern hemisphere are going to trend cooler over the next 3 – 5 months – and if I extrapolate that trend for the next 10 years, average temperatures are going to reach -50F in 2015!! Whoa…hold it…sorry – I was having a “climate science” moment there for a few seconds…

Coach Springer

The inverse relationship was noted and discussed at length a number of years ago and posted at junkscience. My take away at that time was that the globe could warm and ice increase at the south pole with a force for lowering sea level (as opposed to, and an order of magnitude greater than, northern hemisphere land-sited ice).
I’m just surprised that some alarmist hasn’t used the inverse relationship to predict that the world will tip over as a result of warming. (Yeah, yeah. If we go there and on the other hand, could it affect orbital wobble and “drive” the glacial/interglacial cycle? Should we start melting the Antarctic ice to keep climate from – you know – changing? So many questions to man-controlled climate and no answers! Thinking of Michael Crichton here.)

Gunga Din

richardscourtney says:
September 28, 2012 at 1:37 am
Dermot O’Logical:
At September 27, 2012 at 11:37 pm you ask three questions. I assume several people will provide answers and I write to offer mine.
==================================================================
Here’s my “Joe-Sixpack” answers:
Q1.
What’s the mechanism for this inverse correlation?
A1.
Don’t know. We need more research funding to find out.
Q2.
Are there any models which have accurately forecast this?
A2.
No. More research funding is needed to produce them.
Q3,
Does this pattern appear anywhere in the historical record?
A3.
No. There are no tree rings at the poles. Perhaps with more research funding we could find one. One is all that is needed to manufacture the historical record.

G. Karst

A number of commenters have asked for a graph of TOTAL sea ice. It seems no one has looked at our own ice page references:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
The bright red line (at bottom) is total sea ice extent. Perhaps they mean total sea ice mass… which would be a different question. GK

Bill Parsons

How do North and South anomalies compare in absolute (square km) terms, as well as in percentage deviation from their 20-year averages. Can someone boil it down for the non-scientist?
What is the mechanism for the deposition of additional snow in the Antarctic?

Caleb

North Pole Camera has drifted down to near 80 degrees north and 1 degree east, and Camera 2 finally had the frost sublimate off the lens, and during the brief day seems to show an open lead of water in the distance. Temperature has been well below zero and melt-water pools have frozen up, but we may soon witness the ice break up in Fram Stait, and say bye-bye to pictures for another year. (Soon the nights will close down the cameras, at any rate.)
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2012/webcam2.html

richcar 1225

The extra sea ice in antarctic corresponds with unusually strong westerly winds that in turn drive the Antarctic circum polar current of the Southern Ocean that through Ekman pumping is bringing unusually large volumes of Antarctic bottom water to the surface where some of it finds it way into the adjacent subtropical gyre and which in turn feeds the Gulf stream. The warm gulf stream feeds the AMOC which warms the arctic ocean and melts the arctic sea ice.
Although global circulation models show that most of the effect of the increased westerly Antarctic vortex winds would take as long as 3500 years to effect the Arctic, reserchers believe that teleconnections between the poles exist for time intervels of less than ten years due to wave propagation such as Kelvin and Rosseby waves.
http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~hbrix/papers/brixdiss.pdf

“Günther says:
September 28, 2012 at 1:45 am
…blah blah blah…
…bait bait…
…(you know, extra warm waters releasing all that heat and moisture to the atmosphere in fall, the temperature gradient between the equator and the Arctic becoming smaller, jet stream slowing down, becoming wavier, etc)? There’s an ever increasing amount of talk about that, which probably won’t decrease as the decline in the thickness of the ice cover is increasingly noticeable in sea ice area and extent numbers, no matter what the weather patterns are. And the rapid spring melt of snow on NH land masses doesn’t help either. WUWT?…”

Can anyone play this game? Why don’t we make it meaningful and list the “modeled” prognostications of your favorite modelers against some of the wild a_s guesses we throw out?
I’ll throw out a curious thought of mine as a possible result. All of that, warm, cough, moisture rising and filling the atmosphere with that horrible CO2 mitigating humidity just might end up as winter storms piling snow, ice and freezing rain into thse high latitude glaciers that the CAGWers are so worried about melting. Simplified, for your benefit, it means that the high latitude glaciers will again grow and glacier growth willl continue until all of the artic is ice covered year round when they will stabilize until the cycle begins downward again.
Sound logical? Does to me. Will it happen? Maybe. Maybe not. Like Anthony and many others here I don’t make glorified ‘I am Scientist, thou shalt not doubt me‘ claims. Those type of claims and insistances are generally a feature of CAGW religion. Identifying and explaining ALL existing climate effects is not a feature of CAGW beliefs. Like the ice burden at the South Pole versus the ice burdens at the North pole shifting back and forth in regular cycles. A feature that has been noted by astronomers on a number of planets, including earths.