From NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Facebook page, a silver lining to the heat wave/drought of 2012:
Check out these 2012 numbers from NOAA SPC, showing only 757 confirmed tornadoes as of September 21. That compares to an annual average of 1,300 tornadoes, and 1,692 that touched down last year as of late September.
SPC writes:
“After a busy start, tornado events in the U.S. in 2012 have dropped well below the expected normal. The preliminary total of 757 tornadoes is about 400 tornadoes below what might be expected in a typical year. This chart shows that in late 2011, the annual running total was over 400 tornadoes above normal. This depicts the dramatic variability that can occur in tornado numbers from one year to the next.”
I’d call this an “inconvenient truth” when compared to Al Gore’s latest pay for play bloviation:
Al Gore hopes to show links between climate change and the effects of extreme weather worldwide with an online and social media-fueled event built around the idea of “dirty weather.”
Gore’s advocacy group, the Climate Reality Project, announced Sunday that its second multimedia “24 Hours of Reality” event will occur Nov. 14-15 and bear the title “The Dirty Weather Report.”
Gore still hasn’t fessed up to the “24 hours of reality” lie he foisted on the public last year with his Climate101 video where he faked the results of a CO2 experiment in post production because it couldn’t possibly ever work on its own.
I located all the exact same props and replicated his experiment, and proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that the end result of that experiment presented to the viewer was faked.
See my findings here.
I wonder how much fakery we’ll see this year?
h/t to A. Scott for the SPC graph
“NOAA just released data showing 2012 tornado count dropping like a house in Oz”
–
I enjoyed your title, Anthony. But now the focus will be on the “intensity” of storms rather than on the “count.” They’ll claim that a lack of increase in the number of tornadoes is not nearly as important in their new and improved climate models as the increase in spin. Then they’ll ask their friends in the media to help them increase the “spin” in every way they can.
But, but this year’s extremely low tornado count is just that, extreme weather, is not it? It is certainly worse than we thought. If there is nothing to rebuild, the effect on GDP & unemployment can be detrimental.
” Al Gore hopes to show links between climate change and the effects of extreme weather worldwide with an online and social media-fueled event built around the idea of “dirty weather.”
Gore’s advocacy group, the Climate Reality Project, announced Sunday that its second multimedia “24 Hours of Reality” event will occur Nov. 14-15 and bear the title “The Dirty Weather Report.””
Climate Reality Project
So we are in for yet another load of Al Gore CR_P
Right Brian, Gornadoes are invisible to all but those converted to climate alarmism. Alarmists can clearly see Gornadoes, they are tracked daily. See the latest Gornadoe report at Albert Gore’s Climate Reality Project. The UCA (unidentified climate anomaly) report can also be seen daily at 6:00 pm TT (Tennessee Time) broadcast directly from Big Al’s mansion.
I’m no statistician, but it seems to me that procedures like that applied to the “Inflation-adjusted” tornado numbers should work no matter what the baseline year one starts with. I went to the explanation page at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html to see what was up, and applied their algorithm to baseline years at 1954 and 1987 — the beginning and middle of the graph.
I got much different results each time, and in each case the trend was upward. Maybe I did it wrong, but it seemed to me the process was to take a baseline year and get every years’ delta from that. Then take the value of the trend line at the baseline year and apply the delta to that. In the case of 1987 the delta for that year would be 0, and adding it to the trend value would make it 1000. In 1954 the delta from 1987 was around -100 (hard to read the graph), so the adjusted value would be 900. In 2007 the delta was around 450, so the adjusted value would be 1450.
That did not give me a flat trend at all. Starting with 1954 gave an even worse result. What did I do wrong — or is the algorithm invalid except at the far right endpoint?
Oh my… forgot the /sarc not.
@RACookPE1978,
Yes it is inflation. Inflation of the count of tornados over time due to improved reporting/detection. For proper trend analysis, this needs to be treated as inflation because detection tech continues to improve over time such that in the next decade they will be counting tornados that went undetected in this decade.
One thing that shows this clearly to be a case of improved reporting/detection creating a false treand is that in the raw data if you separate the tornados by F rating, the 3s 4s and 5s aren’t showing much if any trend, the trend is all in the weakest tornados.
Matt.
>>Who’s Al Gore?<<
He invented the Internet, don't you know?
Al Gore seems to be bringing on a new ice age with all his talk. It is almost spooky how the Gore Effect works.
Hey!
Where’s R. Gates been hiding?
I haven’t had a chance to torture him over the bet about Al Gore’s on air experiment from last time.
Remind him that he made a bet….
That he lost….
In an embarrasing way….
… and he welched.
Is there going to be another on air experiment or other piece of “science” this year that I could get him to go double or nothing on?
I’d rather be gored by a boar
than bored by a Gore…
(apologies to William F. Buckley)
Global Warming morphs into Climate change — Extreme Weather now morphs into Dirty Weather.
Big Al’s logic, assuming there is any, seems to point to the idea of adding a human induced aspect to extreme weather to prove the human footprint.
Is there any data to support a trend in soot etc. in weather? Given the current global downtrend in manufacturing, his timing appears to be conjecture as usual.
Be careful, the next ALARM will be that there are NOT ENOUGH tornadoes, because of CO2!
Al Gore blamed the massive Arizona Wallow fire in May/June 2011 on climate change. On 22 June 2011, he said:
“Today, the biggest fire in the history of the state of Arizona is spreading to New Mexico.” Gore said. At what point is there a moment where we say, ‘Oh, we ought to do something about this?’”
But it turns out a major factor in creating increased fire potential in eastern Arizona were the dead oak trees killed by the severe freeze during the 1st week of February 2011. Here is a quote from the Coronado National Forest (http://www.inciweb.org/incident/article/2225/11448/):
“Dry fuels and oak trees, killed from the intense February freeze, are providing fuel for the fire.”
And here is a fuels advisory put out by the Coronado NF of SE Arizona in March 2011 which anticipated increased fire potential due to the severe freeze (http://www.myfirecommunity.net/discussionimages/NPost10594Attach1.pdf):
“However, what is for sure is that we can expect increased fire potential and fire
behavior in areas dominated by oaks which have suffered the impacts of the early February
freeze.”
The temperature dropped to ZERO F on 4 Feb 2011 at Douglas in SE Arizona while 3 Feb 2011 with a mean temperature of 16 F saw a -32 F departure from normal.
Climate change policies causing food shortages:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/09/25/bacon-shortage-pigs.html
Thank you green activists, your ethanol fuels damage engines and raise the costs of feed until food production becomes unsustainable. Is this what the green cult really meant when they preached about sustainable living?
MarkW says:
September 25, 2012 at 10:04 am
“Isn’t the ACE number down by quite a bit in recent years as well?”
Actually, NOAA are stating the ACE is 50% higher so far this year – but they have been saying that every year and in this case the issue is definitely one of increased surveillance – if you look at their hurricane page, they are measuring weather events is so far into the Atlantic that they pose more of a threat to Africa. You can’t tell me these were included in previous years.
They are up to 53 advisories on Nadine (now as TS), which has been running around in circles in the mid-Atlantic for about 14 days. This of the ACE they can attribute to that!
Tornadoes and hurricanes: At a new low
The CO2 calms them, as far as we know
The crop yields increase
And the starving will cease.
More CO2, please, let the trees and plants grow
Al Gore…the best help deniers never dreamt of…
“Gorenado” … perfect!
We ALL live in “Dirty Wx” Al Gores new “Gorenado Alley”
“Attack of the Killer Gorenado’s” by “Dirty Wx” Al Gore
A gust of hot air and you have a Gorenado … courtesy of Al “Dirty Wx” Gore’s new project …
Ok – better stop 😉
Tornado madness!! Al and his liar chums must stop trying to scare the children. Children will know what tornadoes are. Tornadoes are not a thing of the present.
“dropping like a house in Oz”
?????????????
I haven’t noticed houses dropping around here.
If you mean price, Australian houses are overpriced, but the prices aren’t dropping anywhere near as much as they should.
[Reply: Ref: The Wizard Of Oz. — mod.]
Coming to an area near you: tornado drought caused by…………………global warming. I am not joking either, just wait and see. These scam artists have no shame when they have their snouts firmly in the lucrative funding trough. They do not hesitate to lie. They do not hesitate to deceive. It’s all about the money. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Oh…oh…I so get the twisted logic of the above folks who are predicting the LACK of tornadoes will somehow be related to globull warming. That is some heavy hitting sarcasm right there!!!! You just can’t get this kind of entertainment on TV. God bless you Anthony for bringing those kinds of folks out of their own world into the universe so we can all taste of their delicious comments!
And to make not too fine a point, the examples of twisted logic above delivered to the opposition is one of the higher forms of logic Spock himself would bow to, as in “I’m not worthy! I’m not worthy”!
Too much heat is gonna cause more severe weather … until it doesn’t.
That damn ‘ol dirty weather …