Tisdale asks: Hey, Where’d The El Niño Go?

Here’s the BOM link, Bob.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/enlist/index.shtml
They say “This page describes a case by case analysis of El Niño events since 1900. Click on the tabs to read about particular years.”
They describe a lot of ‘weak’ events, but there seems to be no El Nino between 1926 and 1940.

Jan P Perlwitz says:
OK, I see. The misunderstanding was here on my side.
And there it remains.
Your statement about the model simulations did not refer to climate model simulations on which James Hansen relies (not exclusively, though) for his statements on future global warming, but on the weather prediction simulations of El Nino/La Nina over a time-scale of a year. I apologize.
What are you apologizing for, exactly?
But what is the link between those prediction and what James Hansen allegedly “wants” supposed to be, then?
That is a very good question. Do tell, exaclty what was your buddy Hansen relying on to make this prediction:
“Sometimes it is interesting to make a bet that looks like it is high risk, but really isn’t. Such a bet can be offered at this point. The NOAA web pages giving weekly ENSO updates predict a return to ENSO–neutral conditions by mid–summer with some models suggesting a modest El Nino to follow. We have been checking these forecasts weekly for the past several years, and have noted that the models almost invariably are biased toward weak changes. Based on subsurface ocean temperatures, the way these have progressed the past several months, and comparisons with development of prior El Niños, we believe that the system is moving toward a strong El Niño starting this summer. It’s not a sure bet, but it is probable.”
He explicitly ruled out those … what was it you called them … ” weather prediction simulations of El Nino/La Nina over a time-scale of a year.” He shouldn’t have done that. Though they were spectacularly wrong, they were much closer to correct than he was. They predicted neutral ENSO. He rejected that advice, and went with strong El Nino. Hansen predicts strong warming, who’d a thunk it, huh?
That was 2011. A double dip into a strong La Nina was what we actually got. So, what was Hansen relying on to pull that epic FAIL?
Was it the … what was it you called them …”climate model simulations on which James Hansen relies”? Or was he perhaps being a bit of a loose cannon, making predictions colored by his … you know … personal desires?
What is the “CAGW” theory?
The alleged justification for declaring that us skeptics are guilty of “crimes against humanity” – as per your buddy Hansen. Seems like you guys ought to have some clue as what that is, given that you are prepared to go all Nuremburg on us over it.
“Where can I read about it?”
Right after “Dear Diary,”
The statements about anthropogenically caused global warming …
Dude, don’t forget the Catastrophic part! Your livelihood depends on it! There has got to be a “Death trains” = money trains sampler cross stitched over Hansen’s desk, and for good reason. You can screw up the science all you want, but people won’t keep shoveling billions of dollars down the GISS incinerator chute if you forget to tell the scary stories.
Claim that global warming “has stalled”, “stopped” or similar talking points don’t have any scientific basis.
Interestingly, they have the same scientific basis as Hansen had when he started telling the scary stories. Actually, the scientific basis is a bit stronger for our “talking point” vs Hansen’s 1988 “cook the room” presentation. He only had 8 years of alleged anthropogenic warming (per IPCC donchaknow) when he testilied before Congress. We have more than double that period of dead flat temps now. Funny how your standards are all doubled up like that.
Do you believe there wouldn’t be any record breaking in the years ahead anymore, if El Nino ceased to occur every few years?
Heavens no. When sitting on a temp plateau – as we have been for nearly two decades now – one would expect new “record temps” every so often, just from natural variation. What we dont believe is that when such variability driven “record temps” occur, that you guys will describe them as such. No, we are forced to believe that you will instead try to use those variability driven events to further your pretense that warming is still occurring.
If Hansen wanted such a thing he wouldn’t need El Nino for such record breaking.
True dat! All Hansen needs to get the result he wants is an “adjustment”.
The global temperature anomaly would break positive records in the years and decades ahead again and again anyhow, since global warming continues and is going to continue with further increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that is exactly the behaviour that would be expected (statistically speaking) from variability acting on a trend of zero.
There. Fixed that for ya.
It is the fact that you guys constantly spin even such small things in that manner that causes us to not trust you. We are tired of hearing about “consistent with” the enormous error bands around the model based (“not exclusively though”) predictions projections prognostications that you guys use to fill your pockets with other people’s hard earned money. Get a real job.

JJ says:September 25, 2012 at 8:58 pm
predictions projections prognostications
perhaps more at ‘prestidigitation’?