Sea Ice News – Volume 3 Number 11, part 1 – new Arctic satellite extent record

Gail Combs says:
August 27, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Anchorage Alaska had record snows last winter and the snow was not melting out.
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I do not have isobar charts handy for the US this year, but I did encounter a reference to Notherly winds giving Washington and North California a cooler Summer. The same airflow may have given Alaska its unusually cold weather.
With the jetstream locked at high latitude over the Eastern US and at low latitude over Europe for much of 2012, did Alaska and the US West coast get stuck with a low latitude jetstream and the colder weather to match?

JohnB says:
August 27, 2012 at 9:56 am
REPLY: Thanks Walt, have you ever considered we may be at/near the bottom of a natural cycle? How can you rule that out without data much beyond 30 years? There’s historical anecdotal evidence of very low Arctic sea ice in the past where you have no data. – Anthony
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Anthony, what evidence would that be?
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Little Ice Age Kick Start [lots of links]
….What Dr Gifford and his team demonstrate is the central Baffin Island and many others of Canadian Arctic Archipelago, were more or less ice free, prior to about ±1275 and 1300 CE which was more or less the beginning of the little ice age, and intensified between ±1430-1455 CE. In the interview Gifford noted on the geological time scale this is quick. He is quite correct and subject we examined in several other essays Normal Eleven, Precision, Accuracy and Time and Scientific Method, Time and Scale, are good examples.
The earth, at least the northern hemisphere, has been recovering from the this cold period since about 1850. It has taken until just recently for that ice cap to melt and expose the rooted plants (dead of course) that were growing when the ice formed. Geologists have been speculating, not with no data or evidence, as to just what caused it. Gifford presents a compelling but not definitive argument. They found that two periods of heavy duty volcanism occurred one triggering the ice cap establishment and once the sea ice sufficiently expanded to self perpetuate and another reinforcing the first…..

Stuff like that is one reason most geologists laugh at the CAGW crap. Here is a Greenland graph.
A WUWT article on another paper link
And here is a paper Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic

Abstract
…. From ca 2.6 to ca 1.0 Ma ago, ice sheets came and went about every 41 ka, in pace with cycles in the tilt of Earth’s axis, but for the past 700 ka, glacial cycles have been longer, lasting ca 100 ka, separated by brief, warm interglaciations, when sea level and ice volumes were close to present. The cause of the shift from 41 ka to 100 ka glacial cycles is still debated. During the penultimate interglaciation, ca 130 to ca 120 ka ago, solar energy in summer in the Arctic was greater than at any time subsequently. As a consequence, Arctic summers were ca 5°C warmer than at present, and almost all glaciers melted completely except for the Greenland Ice Sheet, and even it was reduced in size substantially from its present extent. With the loss of land ice, sea level was about 5 m higher than present, with the extra melt coming from both Greenland and Antarctica as well as small glaciers.
…. Ice recession was well underway 16 ka ago, and most of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets had melted by 6 ka ago. Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ca 11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3° C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present. Early Holocene summer sea ice limits were substantially smaller than their 20th century average, and the flow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean was substantially greater. As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers reestablished or advanced, sea ice expanded….

And another

A 10,000-Year Record of Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Variability—View from the Beach
Abstract
We present a sea-ice record from northern Greenland covering the past 10,000 years. Multiyear sea ice reached a minimum between ~8500 and 6000 years ago, when the limit of year-round sea ice at the coast of Greenland was located ~1000 kilometers to the north of its present position. The subsequent increase in multiyear sea ice culminated during the past 2500 years and is linked to an increase in ice export from the western Arctic and higher variability of ice-drift routes. When the ice was at its minimum in northern Greenland, it greatly increased at Ellesmere Island to the west. The lack of uniformity in past sea-ice changes, which is probably related to large-scale atmospheric anomalies such as the Arctic Oscillation, is not well reproduced in models. This needs to be further explored, as it is likely to have an impact on predictions of future sea-ice distribution.

And another

Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock
Many paleoclimatic data reveal a ∼1,500 year cyclicity of unknown origin. A crucial question is how stable and regular this cycle is. An analysis of the GISP2 ice core record from Greenland reveals that abrupt climate events appear to be paced by a 1,470-year cycle with a period that is probably stable to within a few percent; with 95% confidence the period is maintained to better than 12% over at least 23 cycles. This highly precise clock points to an origin outside the Earth system; oscillatory modes within the Earth system can be expected to be far more irregular in period.

Julienne Stroeve says:
August 27, 2012 at 10:11 am
BillD, we have a new paper just published: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL052676.shtml
This paper compares the next round of climate models with the observations. They better represent the mean state of the ice cover than the models in 2007 IPCC report, and they also generally simulate faster rates of decline, though many are still slower than observed. Interestingly though is that the uncertainty as to when an ice-free Arctic may be realized remains about the same in the earlier models.
Thanks Julienne: it’s good to know that scientists are able to keep up with the speed of the ice melt. Sometimes reading climate blogs, one gets the impression that climate scientists and the IPCC are exagerating the rateof climate change and warming, not underestimating it. On the other hand, good scientific estimates are likely to be too high in some instances and too low in others.

Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock
Many paleoclimatic data reveal a ∼1,500 year cyclicity of unknown origin. A crucial question is how stable and regular this cycle is.
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Mr. Watts, your last link describes a 1470 year periodicity in which 12 successive events occur quite evenly spaced. According to Figure 1, each shows a rapid increase in temperature, followed by a slightly slower decline back to normal. The last, 10,000 years ago, showed a rapid increase as before, but then a sustainded rise continuing to the present. Something has changed.
In my August 27, 2012 at 11:19 am comment I suggested a connection between Antarctic melting and the superwarming your links describe. Can you suggest possible candidates driving these changes, beyond the vague “natural variability” so beloved of sceptics writing here.

Mosher, The Gremlin you search was pointed out by Vukcevic.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Sun-Earth.htm
I would think that multi year ice will be removed more effectively by warmer sea temperatures from below than by warmer air temperatures from above.
I can see plenty of benefits to an ice free Arctic. Lets harvest those clathrates.
Entropic Man. And yet temperatures have been declining in the Antarctic for years. Perhaps you’re thinking that the present cool / ice house multi million year climate phase is coming to the end of it’s cycle, to be replaced by the hot house phase for the next 30+ million years.

David A., aka DaveE
@ur momisugly11:39
Sorry, David, I did not mean to imply or suggest the idea was original with me, nor did I mean to not give credit where and if due.
My main point was to agree with your comment about Walt M.
The rest I added as sometimes an idea expressed in a different wording may help the argument along. Also, I think P.G.’s “notrickzone” is a nifty site with an emphisis on German and European activities – he translates a lot of things from German to English, thus making it available to a wider audience – well, me anyway.
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JohnB says @ur momisugly 11:02
“I started there, and found: “useful data . . .” ”
[Until you can measure something and express it in numbers, you have only the beginning of understanding. Lord Kelvin]
Let’s assume I’m cutting firewood on the edge of my property and a mountain lion is watching me from the riparian zone not far away. My neighbor sees both of us but doesn’t bother to tell me so because she doesn’t know if it is one cougar or 2 or 3, doesn’t know its age, or sex, or when its last meal was. And she doesn’t know if I have seen the cougar and don’t care. She’s got no “useful data!”
In any case, others have pointed to many places for you to look. Maybe you can see something useful there.

Tomwys. you said “But the 4 & 5 year Multiyear ice is gone and won’t come back, so watch for succeeding repeat performances in the future.”
But only if you ignore the fact that the AMO is still in a warm phase and will go to a cold phase in a few years. You also ignore the fact the sun is currently at or near it’s low maximum and is expected to have a long slow decline over the next few years.
The combined effect will put paid to Arctic alarmospherism. Get your crampons ready, you may be able to walk from Greenland to Iceland.

Anthony and others concerned about this summer’s storm, do you recall the storm of summer 2008 around the same time of year? On 29 July a storm originated in northern Siberia and slowly moved into the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. It reached a maximum intensity of 976 hPa (this year it was 964 hPa). The storm lingered over the Chukchi Sea along a closed track and during its weakening phase moved into the Beaufort Sea along the ice edge and eventually into the central Arctic where it dissipated. SSTs decreased as the storm moved into the region, the maximum decrease was as much as 2C in the coastal waters of the southern Beaufort Sea. No significant SST response was seen in the area covered by sea ice. The vertical mixing was enhanced by high winds associated with the storm that brought cold water to the surface in the coastal Beaufort Sea. In addition, the increased vertical mixing increased the mixed layer by about 5m. During the storm, the extent didn’t show the large changes it did this August. Satellite ice thickness show thinner ice this year than in 2008 – a reason why the August 2012 storm could impact the ice like it did.

Entropic man says:
August 27, 2012 at 12:38 pm
…. With the jetstream locked at high latitude over the Eastern US and at low latitude over Europe for much of 2012, did Alaska and the US West coast get stuck with a low latitude jet stream and the colder weather to match?
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I farm and am outside a lot and pay close attention to the weather both on the radar (Wundergound) and while outside. Normally the weather is from the west. In the last few years it has changed from being mostly from the west to all over the place. This is consistent with a change in the jet stream patterns from zonal to meridional flow. The blocking high over Russia in 2010 that caused a heat wave and the blocking high this year over the US midwest are typical of the meridional flow. This would seem to indicate the Dust Bowl of the 1930’s was also a time of meridional flow.
Vukcevic shows the AMO was in the same spot in the cycle graph in the 1930’s as it is in right now. The PDO however is in a different part of the cycle: graph from ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ersstv3b/pdo/pdo.1854.latest.situ.v3b.ts
A discussion on the PDO.
So perhaps S. Wilde is correct and it is driven by the change in the amount of energy into the tropical oceans from the sun.

Roger Harrabin has just been granted prime time News at Ten to tell the world that this is incontrovertible proof of CAGW. Apparently we are all doomed unless we give the UN all our money.
You might almost think he had been chatting with his ‘friends’.

Dear me, predictions come in all sizes and types. In fact 4 out of the 5 key objections here were predicted back on August 12 and like pavlovs dogs, WUWT gladly ranted their hearts out.
The only prediciton which did not get fulfilled was sensor failure…. I must admit I’m a little surpised as WUWT always claims that DMI sensors have failed every time it drops like a stone. Funny satellites those which fail and then start working perfectly when eggshell thin ice re-forms very rapidly very late in the season….
However Anthony you are bending the truth, yet again. NSIDC is almost the LAST record to fall. Not the first or the only. But, of course, you had to wait until the situation settled enough before you could start spreading your poison so it would be believable.
I see a trend here. People on the board keep saying we’re recovering from the little ice age and so there should be a melt. Yet there is a second and almost constant thread which says that ice is recovering. These two opinions are diametrically opposed yet everyone here seems to think they make the case in two different ways.
WUWT has been making constant noise about how the ice is NOT melting yet the WUWT submissions for SEARCH have dropped by 1msqkm between 2007 and now.
Pinnoccio methinks your nose is growing.
As the weeks go on and the ice does not recover, you will, again, say absolutely nothing. You will only perk up again when the temperature drops to -100 for a week and generates 6 inches of flash frozen ice in a sudden spurt. Then again it’ll be a sudden and “unprecedented” re-freeze of the ice. Never mind the fact that the ice will not reach the 2006/9 low ice winter levels. The fact that the average winter temperatures around Greenland will be 30C – 40C higher than normal over a period of weeks, no let’s ignore all that.
Only on WUWT could the arctic sea loose heat all winter but not gain heat in the summer, creating a net effect of cooling which will then melt even MORE ce the following year.
Escher had nothing on the logic of WUWT. But of course it’s not logic is it. It is simply making any claim which could possibly be believed by anyone so that an incredible and impossible claim can be upheld.
True to form and true to type. Eeven more so as the whole site lacks logic so badly that nobody can see the basic inconsistency of the position. One key message I use to make people wake up and understand the position is the basic inconsistency of the denailosphere arguments. Argue one thing one day and another the day after. Never cross check to see if you are making sense, what good would that do? Belive me you make my case much more focibly than I could. All I have to do is point out the basic inconsistency of sites like this and I have people convinced.
What thousands of graphs and billions of lines of data will not do for the common person, WUWT does for me perfectly.
Keep it up. It helps me enourmously.