Weekend Open Thread

Taking a break, it has been an exhausting week. Postings resume Monday.

Be sure to vote in the August ARCUS sea ice forecast poll.

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Mr Lynn

Hansen is back at it!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/climate-change-is-here–and-worse-than-we-thought/2012/08/03/6ae604c2-dd90-11e1-8e43-4a3c4375504a_story.html?wpisrc=emailtoafriend
All the ‘extreme weather’ is caused by ‘climate change’.
He really said, “It’s worse than we thought.”
Can an expert from the Climate Realist community submit a forceful refutation? Dr. Christy?
/Mr Lynn

a jones

A little limerick I penned in response to the goings on this week. It is a parody of a famous one of over fifty years ago which itself was a parody of a late Victorian one. As far as I can trace there were several variants of both and to my surprise they appear to have been by our old friend Anonymous. Anyway:
I dislike this whole climate scam
There’s Muller, McKibben and Mann
Mann’s tree rings are bunk
Mullers stats are all junk
And McKibben just weeps all he can.
A.J.G Jones
Hope you and the readers enjoy.
Kindest Regards

Another science writer bites the dust, caught out by fabricating Bob Dylan quotes for his book on creativity:
“The Fall Of A Hipster Intellectual ”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100174768/jonah-lehrer-the-fall-of-a-hipster-intellectual/
Let’s look up his AGW views…yep, just what the doctor (of popular delusions) ordered, via a quick Google search:
“Lehrer published a comment on his blog, The Frontal Cortex, where he denied that he was implicitly questioning science and scientific methods in any way. In the same blog comment, Lehrer stated that he was not questioning fundamental scientific theories such as the theory of evolution by natural selection and global warming by calling them “two of the most robust and widely tested theories of modern science”.
And a history of pushing post-normal science:
“If Lehrer didn’t really mean that belief in a given scientific claim is always a matter of choice, why did he say it?”

This is a revision of a wuwt comment of mine that I just left at jnova, and it seems to be going over pretty well there, and because I think the idea behind it is important, I wanted to make the comment here as well:
Around 1990 a huge amount of politically driven funds were being funneled into fields supporting the global warming hypothesis. Further, arguably nearly all of the post 1990 climatologists did not get accepted to their programs without agreeing with the “science” of the warmists. In this sense, these post 1990 vintage climatologists by and large lack credibility on the subject of… climate. Seriously. And here’s a good comment from the dailymail:

– Chrome from San Francisco [said] “It is funny how every story supposedly challenging climate change has an “expert” who isn’t a climatologist. In this case it is a guy with no quoted credentials from a geography department. Why anyone would think an unknown geographer is credible on climate change I have no idea.”
Yes but you see until recently there wasn’t a science called “climatology”, there were meteorologists, physicists, geographers etc. Then along come a load of activists calling themselves climatologists and bingo – no one else has a right to comment. Argumentum ad verecundiam at its finest.

DirkH

A little hiatus for the next 2 weeks at notrickszone so I’ll repost a comment of mine, a bit of news from Germany I stumbled across today…
Desertec, the idea of producing solar electricity for Europe in the Sahara, founded by the Club Of Rome and today accompanied by the industry consortium DII, with members like Siemens, Eon and RWE, is basically dead, writes Der Stern in its print edition.
E-on reacted defiantly, pledging their unwavering allegiance to desertec.
(German:)
http://www.welt.de/newsticker/news3/article108419446/E-on-bekennt-sich-zu-Desertec.html
Der Stern BTW, are 100% warmist Hamburgers and pro-renewables at any price. They write that Desertec/DII applied for 1.5 bn EUR subsidies to be paid by the German electricity user so they can continue with a 600 MW solar plant in Morocco. (using some statistical tricks to make it appear as if the electricity produced down there does anything good for the German consumer. Of course it would be consumed in Morocco and Spain)
Looks pretty bad for them.
They have one interesting number. Even given the high insolation in Morocco, the price for a produced solar-thermal kWh would be 22 Eurocents. End consumer price in Morocco is 4 Eurocents. (“subsidized” writes Der Stern, but they don’t qualify that.)
In shady Germany, production of one PV kWh is already cheaper than 22 Eurocents… (current FIT for new installations is max. 20.76 Eurocents).
So it looks like the ever cheaper silicon PV panels have destroyed the economic basis of the Desertec technology.

For your listening enjoyment……
At 12 years old Sungha Jung, from South Korea, plays “Hotel California”. You will be pleasantly surprised how good it is:

Werner Brozek

UAH for July at 0.28.
2012 in Perspective so far on Five Data Sets
2012 started off rather cold but has warmed up since then. So the present rank is not the most meaningful number. Therefore I will also give what the ranking would be assuming the latest month’s anomaly will continue for the rest of the year. I will also indicate what is required for the rest of the year in each case to set a new record.
Note the bolded numbers for each data set where the lower bolded number is the highest anomaly recorded so far in 2012 and the higher one is the all time record so far. There is no comparison.

With the UAH anomaly for July at 0.28, the average for the first seven months of the year is (-0.089 -0.111 + 0.111 + 0.299 + 0.289 + 0.369 + 0.28)/7 = 0.164. If the average stayed this way for the rest of the year, its ranking would be 9th. This compares with the anomaly in 2011 at 0.153 to rank it 9th for that year. On the other hand, if the rest of the year averaged the July value, which is more likely if the El Nino gets stronger, then 2012 would come in at 0.212 and it would rank 5th. 1998 was the warmest at 0.428. The highest ever monthly anomalies were in February and April of 1998 when it reached 0.66. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 5 months of the year would need to be 0.80. Since this is above the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record.
With the GISS anomaly for June at 0.56, the average for the first six months of the year is (0.34 + 0.41 + 0.47 + 0.56 + 0.64 + 0.56)/6 = 0.497. This is about the same as in 2011 when it was 0.514 and ranked 9th for that year. 2010 was the warmest at 0.63. The highest ever monthly anomalies were in March of 2002 and January of 2007 when it reached 0.88. If the June anomaly continued for the rest of the year, 2012 would end up 9th. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 6 months of the year would need to be 0.76. Since this is close to the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record.
With the Hadcrut3 anomaly for June at 0.477, the average for the first six months of the year is (0.217 + 0.194 + 0.305 + 0.481 + 0.475 + 0.477)/6 = 0.358. This would rank 11th if it stayed this way. This is slightly above the anomaly in 2011 which was at 0.34 to rank it 12th for that year. 1998 was the warmest at 0.548. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 1998 when it reached 0.756. If the June anomaly continued for the rest of the year, 2012 would end up 9th. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 6 months of the year would need to be 0.738. Since this is close to the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record. One has to back to the 1940s to find the previous time that a Hadcrut3 record was not beaten in 10 years or less.
With the sea surface anomaly for June at 0.351, the average for the first six months of the year is (0.203 + 0.230 + 0.242 + 0.292 + 0.339 + 0.351)/6 = 0.276. This is about the same as in 2011 when it was 0.273 and ranked 12th for that year. 1998 was the warmest at 0.451. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in August of 1998 when it reached 0.555. If the June anomaly continued for the rest of the year, 2012 would end up 10th. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 6 months of the year would need to be 0.63. Since this is above the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record.
With the RSS anomaly for June at 0.338, the average for the first six months of the year is (-0.058 -0.121 + 0.074 + 0.333 + 0.233 + 0.338)/6 = 0.133. If the average stayed this way for the rest of the year, its ranking would be 13th. This compares with the anomaly in 2011 at 0.147 to rank it 12th for that year. 1998 was the warmest at 0.55. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.857. If the June anomaly continued for the rest of the year, 2012 would end up 8th. In order for a new record to be set in 2012, the average for the last 6 months of the year would need to be 0.97. Since this is above the highest monthly anomaly ever recorded, it is virtually impossible for 2012 to set a new record.
So on all five of the above data sets, for their latest anomaly average, the 2012 average so far is close to that of 2011. If present trends continue, 2012 will be warmer than 2011, but a record is out of reach on all sets. My projection for the five sets above is that 2012 will come in from 5th to 10th.
On all data sets, the different times for a slope that is flat for all practical purposes range from 10 years and 10 months to 15 years and 7 months. Following is the longest period of time (above 10 years) where each of the data sets is more or less flat. (*For any positive slope, the exponent is no larger than 10^-5, except UAH which is 0.0018436 per year or 0.18/century up to June. The July value will not change it much. So while it is not flat, the slope is not statistically significant either.)
1. UAH: since October 2001 or 10 years, 10 months (goes to July, but note * above)
2. GISS: since May 2001 or 11 years, 2 months (goes to June)
3. Combination of the above 4: since October 2000 or 11 years, 6 months (goes to March) (Hadcrut3 is SLOW!!)
4. HadCrut3: since January 1997 or 15 years, 3 months (goes to March)
5. Sea surface temperatures: since January 1997 or 15 years, 6 months (goes to June)
6. RSS: since December 1996 or 15 years, 7 months (goes to June)
RSS is 187/204 or 91.7% of the way to Santer’s 17 years.
7. Hadcrut4: since December 2000 or 11 years, 7 months (goes to June using GISS. See below.)
See the graph below to show it all for #1 to #6.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2001.33/trend/plot/rss/from:1996.9/trend/plot/wti/from:2000.75/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1997/trend/plot/uah/from:2001.75/trend
For #7: Hadcrut4 only goes to December 2010 so what I did was get the slope of GISS from December 2000 to the end of December 2010. Then I got the slope of GISS from December 2000 to the present. The DIFFERENCE in slope was that the slope was 0.0045 lower for the total period. The positive slope for Hadcrut4 was 0.0041 from December 2000. So IF Hadcrut4 were totally up to date, and IF it then were to trend like GISS, I conclude it would show no slope for at least 11 years and 7 months going back to December 2000. (By the way, doing the same thing with Hadcrut3 gives the same end result, but GISS comes out much sooner each month.) See:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2000/to/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2000.9/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2000/plot/gistemp/from:2000.9/to:2011/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2000.9/trend

Has anyone actually put a trend line on the latest BEST study to 1750?
Tonyb

Paul Vaughan

I have robustly detected a subharmonic of the terrestrial polar motion signal in southern ocean & southeast pacific SSTs. This finding came about as a side-consequence of running careful diagnostics on a 13.44 year envelope in annual timescale LOD variations that beats with the solar modulation of semi-annual terrestrial hemispheric westerly winds to yield a ~62.5 year wave. Interestingly, this framework lines up perfectly with Jupiter-Earth-Venus tidal cycles, D-O/Bond (~1470 year) Event cycles, and also gives a 205 year wave (de Vries cycle). Everything points to the coupling of evaporation & wind. I can taste the cracking of the code of ENSO itself, which is the final obstacle to decisively defeating mainstream misconception, but revelation comes on its own schedule. I humbly request serious financial assistance from anyone capable. The end of life may clock me out before I can reach revelation if I have to keep operating on such severely constrained free time & resources. It takes a fair amount of courage to ask for help this way. I have no alternatives for circumventing absolute mainstream institutional research funding prejudices.
http://i49.tinypic.com/2jg5tvr.png
http://www.globalwarmingskeptics.info/thread-1895.html

Gunga Din

Smokey says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Open Thread! Everything off topic is now on topic!☺
==============================================================
😎 Hard to pick a favorite. 5 or 10 maybe?
Regarding click18, maybe if we’d only done 26 of those 51 things we wouldn’t be talking about CAGW now? 😎

Brian H
jorgekafkazar

DirkH says: “…it looks like the ever cheaper silicon PV panels have destroyed the economic basis of the Desertec technology.”
Yes, the sun is going down on thermal solar.

Mr Lynn says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Hansen is back at it!
All the ‘extreme weather’ is caused by ‘climate change’.
He really said, “It’s worse than we thought.”

Hansen is worse then we thought.

Paul Vaughan says:
August 4, 2012 at 1:09 pm
I can taste the cracking of the code of ENSO itself, which is the final obstacle to decisively defeating mainstream misconception, but revelation comes on its own schedule
As Richard Feynman once said: “the easiest one to fool is oneself”.

Robert Austin

There is a good interview with Dr. Richard Muller of BEST fame at
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9453.
My take on it is Muller comes off very sympathetically in spite of his belief that all the warming shown in BEST is anthropogenic and that nonsense about his claim to being a recent convert from skepticism. He decries Al Gore’s gross exaggerations and errors, he doubts that current weather events can be linked to climate change and he still reviles the shenanigans of the hockey team.
Tucker was pleasant enough during the interview but reveals in his blog that he thinks he knows more about climate science than Muller. The guy sounds like a arrogant dick. He claims to be a recent convert from skepticism but as is often the case, new converts are the most extreme fanatics.
The co-interviewer, Betsy Rosenberg, came of as a scientific ignoramus with a one track mind occupied with the recent weather in the US. Dr,. Muller said that the US was only a small part of the globe and that elsewhere there was significant cooling, he mentioned the effects of ENSO and oceanic oscillations, but Rosenberg would not listen. A true “ecotard”.

Gunga Din

JohnWho says:
August 4, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Mr Lynn says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Hansen is back at it!
All the ‘extreme weather’ is caused by ‘climate change’.
He really said, “It’s worse than we thought.”
============================================================
Now we know the source of the “wierd” in “weather wierding”.

clipe

Paul Vaughan
I’m sure you would stand a lot more chance of support if you could explain what the h*ck your fascinating graphs are about, in common ordinary English. They really do look fascinating but you keep shooting yourself in the foot with cryptic comments.
I am aware that certain topics here get more or less short-changed, in substantial part because they generate polarized opinions with small and diminishing amounts of factual information. I am also aware that the prime aching heartrending current need is to reclaim the integrity (and the basic science) that has been lost in Climate Science, and that in this sense, although I’ve seen unacceptable prejudice on “both” sides, EU, AO, LENR, etc really does not matter so much right now, although the proper appraisal of such subjects does belong to Science in the future – when integrity is restored.
I apologize for my own cryptic abbreviations, but those who need to understand will I trust do so. I do not want to fan the flames of topics that are, now, largely OT with regard to what Anthony and mods can cope with.
Yet I also believe that this currently necessary limit to WUWT is a limit to the breadth of its science, that I sincerely and passionately hope will, in the future, when integrity is restored, be relaxed again, and more supportive relations re-established with such as Tallbloke – which is maybe where your work would fit better for now.

Chuck

Sungha Jung is a child guitar prodigy and YouTube superstar with 570 videos uploaded so far with over 500 million views. He has toured the world, played with many top finger style guitarists, has written at least 25 of his own pieces, has two CDs, played at a state dinner hosted by the South Korean President, and he’s just 15. He learns these pieces in 2 or 3 days by ear. He can play anything he decides he wants to learn. He also plays ukelele.

Babsy

Smokey says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Dear Smokey,
Re: Click 2
I HATE FLIES!!!! AND MOSQUITOS!!! I wish them dead, dead, DEAD!!!
http://bugasalt.com/
No financial interest, etc.

Marlow Metcalf

From comic strip F-minus, Houston Chronicle June 8, 2012
http://www.gocomics.com/fminus/2012/06/08
AND NOW
just for the fun of it
CRANK IT UP!!!

OK Maybe you will like this one better.

Mike the Plumber

I’ve seen a limerick posted so here’s a poem from my wife, Susan, with some of her own musings on CAGW… You’ll love it!
I’m Confused!
Now, I know that science says that global warming
is exacerbated at the hand of man
burning fossil fuels; such pitfalls cause the rising
temperature, and this is set to damn
the planet’s verdant future for poor children
who will never see a polar bear or snow.
But before I bend to conscience-pricking preaching,
there’s a few nit-picking things I need to know.
Just how is it the forecast for tomorrow
does not reflect the findings of today?
Weathermen leave summer picnics drowned in sorrow
with promises of gold, all swept away
in a flood of wishy-washy information
in shades of grey in should-have-been blue skies.
Could this be why my mind wraps round the notion
that a hundred year prediction could be lies?
So, should I spend my cash on pricy panels
that heat my home with solar energy,
thus saving our endangered, furry mammals
when the shine of sun eludes the likes of me?
And what about those planet-saving turbines
embracing wind with should-be-spinning blades,
outdone by the power of singing wind chimes
with the odd turn killing birds and bats in spades?
Should I sell my car and favour walking
without a carbon footprint to digress
from that trail of ‘Save Our Ailing World From Dying’
in the name of green, pollutant-free progress?
Now science says that nature’s out there plotting
to drop a bovine bomb, to be aware
that cows’ behinds are capable of killing –
but what if all these finds are mere hot air?
And how is it that temperatures at night time
can drop from thirty-one down to thirteen,
when in one hundred years a minor rising
of two degrees will cause the earth to scream?
Please help me, for I want to understand this
threat to every species we hold dear –
I want to know that all extorted taxes
are going to a cause that’s crystal clear.

AAIM, thanks.
My contribution: starlings. [youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XH-groCeKbE&w=560&h=315%5D

u.k.(us)

Paul Vaughan says:
August 4, 2012 at 1:09 pm
I have robustly detected a subharmonic of the terrestrial polar motion signal in southern ocean & southeast pacific SSTs………………
================
I knew someone would.

LearDog

Don’t blame you Anthony – its a helluva pace you keep, I don’t know how you do it. But most impressive (to me) was how professionally you responded to Zeke and Mosh. You set a great standard – inspirational really. Its impacted me in what I do as well.

Babsy says:
August 4, 2012 at 2:37 pm
http://bugasalt.com/
No financial interest, etc.

I foresee a PETA market for little, tiny trauma kits…

Has anyone worked with the BEST and NOAA data?
I just compared the newest BEST for Alabama with the NOAA monthly data and found a 1960 pivot point. BEST data is warmer than NOAA post 1960 and cooler than NOAA pre-1960.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2012/08/04/best-minus-noaa-wow-best-has-cooled-the-pre-1960-data-and-warmed-the-post-1960-data-for-alabama/
I don’t totally trust my results but it explains why they didn’t find any cooling in the southeast USA.

David A. Evans

Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Very pleasantly surprised Gene.
As it’s open thread, can anyone point me to a free replacement for Flash & PDF reader that integrate with Firefox on WinDoze?
Google doesn’t seem to be a great help. 🙁
DaveE.

Gary Pearse

Paul Vaughan says:
August 4, 2012 at 1:09 pm
“I have robustly detected a subharmonic of the terrestrial polar motion signal …..”
Paul, you need someone to translate gobbledygook (jargon) if you can’t say it in good expository English. This abstruse manner of speech says more about you than it does about the subject. And, BTW, you haven’t “robustly detected..” (here robustly modifies detected, e.g. you may have robustly detected something insignificant) you have detected an unambiguous signal of something or other. I suspect that you are a bright guy but try to get the stuff across clearly without trying to impress others with yourself. You are, afterall, asking for cash. It should be an advertisement in the manner of selling your product. I hope this criticism is received as a piece of goodwill.

Paul Vaughan
As you can see few of us can understand your particular field, where you currently are with research, and where you hope funding will take you in future.
To help us and you, why not write a ten line summary of what you have done to date, what you hope to do in the future and what end purpose that will achieve.
You have to ‘sell’ your project but none of us have any idea at present what we might be buying should we purchase (fund) it.
All the best
Tonyb

Neville.

Here in OZ we’re forever berated with all sorts of stories by Flannery, CSIRO and pollies etc about future dangerous SLR.
Here is a graph of how much Antarctica ( 89% of planet’s ice) and Greenland ( 10% of ice) will contribute to SLR until 2300 or next 300 years.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1844/1709/F4.expansion.html
Antarctica shows all models are negative to SLR and Greenland shows all models are positive to SLR.
I just wish Willis or someone could write an article showing where this dangerous SLR is to come from. The graph shows all the models for the next 300 years, so where will that dangerous SLR come from I wonder? Can anyone tell me please?

Lodger from Oz

David A. Evans says:
August 4, 2012 at 3:21 pm
As it’s open thread, can anyone point me to a free replacement for Flash & PDF reader that integrate with Firefox on WinDoze?
—————————————————————————
Hi David,
Can’t help with Flash but for a PDF Reader try Foxit Reader. There’s another free program I use called PDFill which creates PDF documents by setting itself up as a “Printer”. Both work really well. I’m running them under XP.
Regards,
Lodger

jjfox

Re:David A. Evans says:
August 4, 2012 at 3:21 pm
As it’s open thread, can anyone point me to a free replacement for Flash & PDF reader that integrate with Firefox on WinDoze?
I cannot help you with Flash, but I use Foxit reader as a PDF Reader. I like it alot.
http://www.foxitsoftware.com/Secure_PDF_Reader/
It’s free too. I like free.

cui bono

One of the stupidest pieces of climate alarmism reaches one of the stupidest net outlets:
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/climate-change-blame-extreme-heat-nasa-scientist-205959260.html

Lucy Skywalker,
David A. Evans
You may like this 1 hour time lapse video of Akiane doing one of her paintings. It’s an hour long but it will not feel like an hour.
p.s., Dave, I am pleasantly surprised that you remember my name. I remember the days of you, Jan, and I commenting on YouTube. That was back before I ever heard there was a WattsUpWithThat.

Robert I Ellison

I often think that things are potentially worse than people realise. Not slow climate change but the potential for abrupt and non linear change. Changes in temperature of 10’s of degrees in places in as little as a decade. A report was published a decade ago by the US National Academy of Sciences – Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises – that describes this as the new climate paradigm. But it is a paradigm that is making slow progress despite support in scientific literature, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, the Royal Society…
So where might some of these surprises come from? To quote AR4 section 3.4.4.1. ‘In summary, although there is independent evidence for decadal changes in TOA radiative fluxes over the last two decades, the evidence is equivocal. Changes in the planetary and tropical TOA radiative fluxes are consistent with independent global ocean heat-storage data, and are expected to be dominated by changes in cloud radiative forcing. To the extent that they are real, they may simply reflect natural low-frequency variability of the climate system.’ The earlier satellite data is most reliably ERBS and ISCCP-FD. It shows cooling in the infrared and warming in the short wave – that (if real) must arise as a result of change in cloud cover.
Here is a relationship from Wong et al (2006) – Reexamination of the Observed Decadal Variability of the Earth Radiation Budget. Using Altitude-Corrected ERBE/ERBS Nonscanner WFOV Data – between ocean heat content from sea level measurements and net ERBS data.
It is a pretty good fit. But it is all just data and as good as the instruments and modelling.
We also have CERES – clouds and Earth’s radiant energy system – measuring Earth’s radiant energy out in reflected sw and emitted lw with unprecedented accuracy. It shows that there is some missing energy that should be there in the Earth system when considering the lack of tropospheric warming last decade. Again the big change is in SW. The interannual changes are largely related to ENSO and might provide one clue as to a source of ‘low frequency variability of the climate system.’
http://s1114.photobucket.com/albums/k538/Chief_Hydrologist/?action=view&current=CERES-BAMS-2008-with-trend-lines1.gif
More recent work is identifying abrupt climate changes working through the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode, the Artic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole and other measures of ocean and atmospheric states. These are measurements of sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure over more than 100 years which show evidence for abrupt change to new climate conditions that persist for up to a few decades before shifting again. Global rainfall and flood records likewise show evidence for abrupt shifts and regimes that persist for decades. In Australia, less frequent flooding from early last century to the mid 1940’s, more frequent flooding to the late 1970’s and again a low rainfall regime to recent times.
Anastasios Tsonis, of the Atmospheric Sciences Group at University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, and colleagues used a mathematical network approach to analyse abrupt climate change on decadal timescales. Ocean and atmospheric indices – in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation – can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of climate variability. Tsonis and colleagues calculated the ‘distance’ between the indices. It was found that they would synchronise at certain times and then shift into a new state.
It is no coincidence that shifts in ocean and atmospheric indices occur at the same time as changes in the trajectory of global surface temperature. Our ‘interest is to understand – first the natural variability of climate – and then take it from there. So we were very excited when we realized a lot of changes in the past century from warmer to cooler and then back to warmer were all natural,’ Tsonis said.
‘While in the observations such breaks in temperature trend are clearly superimposed upon a century time-scale warming presumably due to anthropogenic forcing, those breaks result in significant departures from that warming over time periods spanning multiple decades. Using a new measure of coupling strength, this update shows that these climate modes have recently synchronized, with synchronization peaking in the year 2001/02. This synchronization has been followed by an increase in coupling. This suggests that the climate system may well have shifted again, with a consequent break in the global mean temperature trend from the post 1976/77 warming to a new period (indeterminate length) of roughly constant global mean temperature.’ (Swanson et al 2009 – Has the climate recently shifted)
Muller’s simple superposition of CO2 with temperature is too simple. ‘Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler. Albert Einstein

I got into a bit of a debate on the Planet 3.0 website. Some of the debate is still there as I write this. It will likely be deleted though.
The blogmeister started treating me as a typical moron until I asked how Hansen called the current events as being clearly caused by global warming because it had never happened before. When it did in the 1930s.
Then he showed me a chart that reflected the anomalies since 1971 – which is of course, fallacious.
He deleted my subsequent response that pointed this out. So I sent him this message:
I note you deleted my final comment in which I pointed out that Hansen attributed Global Warming as the cause of the droughts and that data is gamed – only data that fits the scam is ever presented – even a childlike figure like me can see that fallacy. And when the data don’t fit, you omit or worse, fudge..
You presented a graph that showed the recent weather events as anomalies since 1971 – this is of course ridiculous, as 1971 was a very cold year. If you had gone back to 1901, then the 1930s heat – which was before CO2 growth would have messed up your presentation – would have destroyed his argument. If you had gone back to 1001 you would have reflected the medieval warming period, which would again, have disproved the point you make your living with.
Like Hansen and Mann, you guys are unwilling to defend your positions, because they are indefensible.
There is a game afoot and the game is gamed.

Goldie

Did anyone notice the stuff on the Eocene warming, indicating that the Antarctic was tropical and never fell below 10 degrees C even during the winter? Long time ago of course, but some interesting stuff nevertheless. Not least of which, there appears to have been very little temperature gradient between the Equator and the poles, and despite there being no polar ice, there was still plenty of land about. WUWT?

You deserve a break… fighting the establishment is hard, HARD work

Mike McMillan

Bill Tuttle says:August 4, 2012 at 3:06 pm
… I foresee a PETA market for little, tiny trauma kits…

It’s already there. Frogs’ Legs with Rice don’t just happen by themselves, you know. Little, tiny, pairs of crutches, how sad.

Graeme No.3

Smokey:
I have recommended you for Politically Correct Person of the Year.
There is a slight chance though that you may not be awarded the title. Thanks for the laughs!

Graeme No.3,
Thanks… but there is NO chance that I would get that title!☺

clipe

Foxit Reader Caveat lector.
As with the previous version, the setup process is a bit cumbersome. First, watch out for the two check boxes that make Ask your browser default search provider and Ask.com your home page. Opt out as necessary. Then, toward the end of the installation process, be sure to read carefully and opt out of the Addin for Mozilla FireFox, Opera, Safari and Chrome–unless, of course, you’re into bloated toolbars. Once you make it through the installation gauntlet, the rest should be smooth sailing.
http://download.cnet.com/Foxit-Reader/3000-10743_4-10313206.html

eyesonu

Smokey
4, 5, 19

Johna Till Johnson

@Smokey–Hilarious! Loved Click4…

David Ball

Smokey politically correct? No. Spot on. Yes.

Brian H

David A. Evans says:
August 4, 2012 at 3:21 pm
As it’s open thread, can anyone point me to a free replacement for Flash & PDF reader that integrate with Firefox on WinDoze?
Google doesn’t seem to be a great help. 🙁
DaveE.

Try VLC. I switch off its default status for audio files, etc., but it does a decent job with Flash.

clipe

clipe says:
August 4, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Time to keep an eye on Ernesto?
Tracking #Ernesto, 91L off Southeast Florida, and #Florence in the eastern Atlantic.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 342 (Irene), in Florida: 2476 (Wilma)

Steve from Rockwood

Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 4, 2012 at 12:54 pm
——————————————–
Amazing. Thanks.