David Karoly – leader of the 'climate underground'?

Oh how quickly they forget. Last month, scientist David Karoly was thanking Steve McIntyre for spotting the error that led to the retraction of the Gergis et al paper:

“We would like to thank you and the participants at the ClimateAudit blog for your scrutiny of our study, which also identified this data processing issue.

Thanks, David Karoly”

Source: http://climateaudit.org/2012/06/08/gergis-et-al-put-on-hold/

This month, Karoly is writing a pal book review for Michael Mann’s Climate Wars, and its like that never happened: (bold mine)

Commentators with no scientific expertise, ranging from politicians such as Republican congressman Joe Barton from Texas, Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, or Republican Senator James Inhofe from Oklahoma, to blog writers Stephen McIntyre and Marc Morano, have repeatedly promulgated misinformation and sought to launch formal investigations into Mann’s research, claiming professional misconduct or worse, even though it had been peer reviewed and confirmed by other scientists.

McIntyre has no scientific expertise? Well he had enough expertise to find what peer reviewers missed,  and with that knowledge, knocked your paper out of the running, and back to square one. If that isn’t expertise I don’t know what is.

McIntyre notices over at CA that Karoly has a peculiar personal message in a public appearance, and writes in comments: Posted Jul 10, 2012 at 9:58 PM | Permalink

Here is a picture of Karoly at the opening of the Hepburn Community Wind Farm in Victoria, Australia on November 5, 2011. The slogan on his shirt was the slogan of the radical group, the Weather Underground, in the late 1960s when I was at university. Their manifesto is here. Lots of stuff about pigs and imperialists.

McIntyre adds:

Posted Jul 10, 2012 at 10:22 PM | Permalink

Maybe it’s age-specific. For someone who grew up in the period, the phrase and the radical movement were inseparably linked. Wikipedia has an interesting article on the faction http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_Underground.

I still have my vinyl Dylan album with Subterranean Homesick Blues on it.

My counter corollary would be: “you don’t need a climatologist to tell you which way the grants flow”.

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wobble
July 11, 2012 10:08 am

sought to launch formal investigations into Mann’s research, claiming professional misconduct or worse, even though it had been peer reviewed and confirmed by other scientists.

Hiding the decline was most certainly professional misconduct.
It’s funny that he’s implying that formal investigations should be disallowed if something has been peer reviewed. The judge in the UVA case seemed to disagree when he asked why the public should be forced to trust the peer review process.

Editor
July 11, 2012 10:13 am

Can anyone clarify please? The official status of the Gergis paper is: “Print publication of scientific study put on hold”. I have not seen any evidence that this has changed.
If this is the case, this is far from the official classification of RETRACTED and it should be referred to as ‘publication put on hold’ and not as the stronger ‘retracted’.
I don’t believe *any* climate papers, except Wegman, have been officially retracted by the publishing journal.

July 11, 2012 10:18 am

SCheesman says:
July 11, 2012 at 9:03 am
Not to defend his comments, but in fact Karoly appears to be describing two separate groups of people: “Commentators with no scientific expertise”, and “blog writers”.

Sorry, but the subject was clearly “Commentators with no scientific expertise” and the expansion was “ranging from politicians…to blog writers.”
Interesting that someone he claims has no scientific expertise caught an error that *he* made, and that people supposedly having scientific expertise missed it through the entire process of peer-review and publication.
Somebody should clue Karoly in — when your ox gets gored, it’s not a good idea to claim the other guy’s ox was really a lamb.

J.Hansford
July 11, 2012 10:30 am

The Weather Underground’s operatives were responsible for robbing an armoured van and killing and wounding the guards….. Bernadine Dohrn and Bill Ayers where also Weather Underground members, they also happen to be linked to Barack Obama in Chicago….. Socialism. Keeps trying to modernize the same bad idea… They call themselves “Progressives” now.
Progressive Socialism…. There’s an oxymoron if there ever was one. But you gotta hand it to them…. They end up spending all our money on themselves while dictating the terms of societies direction…. They own science now. We may be right. But they own it… and they’re laughin’.
Makes you sick… and that makes them laugh even harder.

John A. Fleming
July 11, 2012 10:45 am

Karoly is just making an appeal to authority. True Scientists do research that is publicly funded, whose grants are approved by other True Scientists, whose papers are approved by other True Scientists, all of whom are faithful and uncorruptible searchers for Truth.
That Karoly has to make that kind of bogus argument, shows that Steve Mac and his gaggle of amateurs and never-was’es have penetrated the illusion and threaten the prize: the public trough at which all True Scientists feed.

more soylent green!
July 11, 2012 10:48 am

These guys think we’re too dumb to track what they’ve said or written previously. Also, you’re not supposed to know what Karoly wrote for a book review in Australia.
They have no accountability or sense of integrity. They’ll say one thing to one audience and something completely different to another audience and you’re not supposed to think about it, just accept what they say at face value when they say it.

GlynnMhor
July 11, 2012 10:49 am

You don’t need a proctologist to know who’s full of sh**

John
July 11, 2012 11:23 am

“REPLY: So is the claim, but unsupported by anything but “we did it first” from “the team”. Most likely a face saving ploy. – Anthony”
I meant it was a commentor called Jean S on his blog that first pointed it out not McIntyre.

July 11, 2012 11:33 am

[SNIP: You’ve been warned about this. -REP]

July 11, 2012 11:43 am

Thanks I hoped you’d pick up this one. Though Steve McIntyre did qualify “lots of stuff about pigs and imperialists” lower down, to give Karoly the benefit of the doubt re current beliefs.
Anthony, I’d love to see an article on the Amazon page for Mann’s “Climate Wars” book. I think it needs WUWT support. Currently the reviews stand:
***** 106 reviews
**** 10
*** 1
** 4
* 33
The lopsidedness shows up strongest in the support of reviews. The three reviews visible are all five-star, having scored 74 “helpfuls” out of 79 total, 451 out of 545, and 27 out of 29.
Only 29! Yet the one-star reviews come up as 91 out of 229, 68 out of 188 (Brandon Shollenberger), 41 out of 119, 186 out of 577, etc. If about 400 of us give the one-star reviews enough support, we can overcome the front-line bias.
You don’t need to have bought this particular book at Amazon to qualify for voting – any Amazon book purchase will do.

Billy Liar
July 11, 2012 12:09 pm

ferdberple says:
July 11, 2012 at 7:41 am
This paper had been reviewed and passed by scientific experts. RC and their team of climate scientists for all their expertise did not find the flaw.
Why would the peer reviewers of Gergis et al want to find a flaw?
They likely wanted the paper for use in the ‘narrative’ of AR5.

July 11, 2012 12:19 pm

Karoly a scientist?? Yeah sure, there have been/are/ other ‘scientists’ of kind and same, i.e. Lysenko, Mengele, Pol Pot, Marx/Engels, O. Palme [kind of], Ahrrhenius, Myrdal, Brundtland [kind of], E. Kjällén, Rummukainen, J. Rockström, P. Holmgren, S. Axelsson, L. Gustavsson, M. Mann, G. Schmidt, J. Hansen, M. Karlsson, Azar, doing/acting/pursuing their ‘agendas’ at all might & wills – sance; they’re all out of funding(s) – all of’em & thus they’ll just die/dimiss/no radar-echo ….
Common sense is not that common any more… Isn’t that just so 100% beautiful?
Brgds from Sweden
/TJ

July 11, 2012 12:29 pm

Shevva says:
July 11, 2012 at 7:34 am
Alot of King Richard the seconds in the climate world.
——————————————–
And a number of Richard the Thirds, some might say….

July 11, 2012 12:35 pm

Here’s the context of the “Serengeti strategy”, it’s paragraph three in Mann’s Prologue which starts:

On the morning of November 17, 2009, I awoke to learn that my private e-mail correspondence with fellow scientists had been hacked from a climate research center at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom and selectively posted on the Internet for all to see. Words and phrases had been cherry-picked from the thousands of e-mail messages, removed from their original context, and strung together in ways designed to malign me, my colleagues, and climate research itself. Sound bites intended to imply impropriety on our part were quickly disseminated over the Internet. Through a coordinated public relations campaign, groups affiliated with the fossil fuel industry and other climate change critics helped catapult these sound bites onto the pages of leading newspapers and onto television screens around the world. A cartoon video ridiculing me and falsely accusing me of “hiding the decline” in global temperagure was released on YouTube and advertised through a sponsored link that appeared with any Google search of my name. The video eventually even made its way onto the CBS Nightly News. Pundits dubbed the wider issue of the hacked e-mails “climategate”, and numerous investigations were launched. Though our work was subsequently vindicated time and again, the whole episode was a humiliating one – unlike anything I’d ever imagined happening. I had known that climate change critics were willing to do just about anything to try and discredit climate scientists like myself. But I was horrified by what they now had stooped to.
My thoughts turned to an event from a decade earlier. In August 1999, I attended a meeting in Arusha, Tanzania, as a lead author for an upcoming report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). From my hotel room, I could see one of the world’s great wonders, Mount Kilimanjaro, with its magnificent ice cap lying just degrees from the equator. The ice cap, by the end of the twentieth century, had already shrunk to just a third of the area it covered in 1936 when Ernest Hemingway wrote “The Snows of Kilimanjaro”, but it was majestic all the same.
After the meeting, I joined a daylong expedition to see one of the world’s greatest displays of nature: Serengeti National Park. Here, zebras, giraffes, elephants, water buffalo, hippos, wildebeests, baboons, warthogs, gazelles, and ostriches wander among some of the world’s most dangerous predators: lions, leopards, and cheetahs. Among the most striking and curious scenes I saw that day were groups of zebras standing back to back, forming a continuous wall of vertical stripes. “Why do they do this?” an IPCC colleague asked the tour guide. “To confuse the lions” he explained. Predators, in what I call the “Serengeti strategy”, look for the most vulnerable animals at the edge of a herd. But they have difficulty picking out an individual zebra to attack when it is seamlessly incorporated into the larger group, lost in this case in a continuous wall of stripes. Only later would I understand the profound lesson this scene from nature had to offer me and my fellow climate scientists in the years to come.

Offensive material highlighted in para 1. But I think Mann’s “Serengeti strategy” analogy works more or less, Mann was the Team’s vulnerable child who would lead them all to greener $$$$$$$$ pastures, so they circled him.

Kevin Kilty
July 11, 2012 12:52 pm

John says:
July 11, 2012 at 5:17 am
“McIntyre has no scientific expertise? Well he had enough expertise to find what peer reviewers missed”
Except it wasn’t McIntyre that found it …
REPLY: So is the claim, but unsupported by anything but “we did it first” from “the team”. Most likely a face saving ploy. – Anthony

Jonas Salk once said “First they tell you you are wrong. Then, once they see you are not wrong, they say instead that what you’re doing is not very important. Finally, when they realize you are right, and what you do is important, they say ‘We knew it all along.’ ”

Mark says:
July 11, 2012 at 5:21 am

Hear, hear.

KnR
July 11, 2012 12:56 pm

The message has gone out and Karoly has fallen back into line , and the ‘science ‘ is once again settled .

otsar
July 11, 2012 1:34 pm

My father used to say you should always keep a few Marxists in your circle of friends, and that you should also listen to them carefully. When they begin to make sense, and other friends begin to agree with them, you will know things are in deep trouble, and that you should be contacting relatives in other countries.

Another Ian
July 11, 2012 1:52 pm

tokyoboy says:
July 11, 2012 at 6:43 am
IIRC,Karoly is the Magiar or Hungarian counterpart of Charles in English- and French-speaking countries, and of Karl in German-speaking countries.
Does this qualify him as a “Charlie” then (as in English idiom)

donaitkin
July 11, 2012 2:19 pm

My guess is that Karoly wrote the review first, and thanked McIntyre second. His review of Mann is a terrible piece of work anyway, an account of what a great guy Mann is. Nothing about the book itself. I have a letter to the editor coming out in the September issue suggesting that the ABR find someone more self to review such a book.

donaitkin
July 11, 2012 2:20 pm

I hate this software! — ‘find someone more useful’!!

David, UK
July 11, 2012 3:10 pm

The models don’t work, an’ the vandals all wear sandals.
Sorry, I’ve just got in from the pub – that’s my excuse. But I’m sure some bright spark could re-write the entire lyric to Subterranean Homesick Sceptic Blues!

MonktonofOz
July 11, 2012 3:28 pm

Stop for a moment and say “thank you” for the web without which WUWT / Jo Nova et al would not have a forum with which to expose the “flat earth” claims of the Manns and Karolys of this world. Laughable that McIntyre should be criticised because he is not of a particular scientific discipline. Who gives a sh*t who finds the cure to cancer or finds a fatal flaw in a thesis? Supreme arrogance to think valid comments can only come from someone from the same field. Our universities are failing to teach 101 science and the principle that full publication allied to actively seeking criticism is THE basis of true science.

Marion
July 11, 2012 3:41 pm

Well Karoly certainly has form for dishonesty. His critique of Bob Carter’s book “Climate: The Counter Consensus” was nothing short of disgraceful and to my mind his misrepresentation of his colleague’s book should come under academic misconduct.
This for example –
“Lets fall through a rabbit hole and enter a different world: the “Carter reality”. In that world, it is OK to select any evidence that supports your ideas and ignore all other evidence….
In the Carter reality, “there has been no net warming between 1958 and 2005.“ Of course, in the real world, there is no basis for this statement from scientific analysis of observational data. The decade of the 2000s was warmer than the 1990s, which was warmer than the 1980s, which was warmer than the 1970s, which was warmer than the 1960s.
So where does Carter’s statement come from? In the Carter reality, he finds a hot year early in the period and a cold year much later, and says there’s been no warming. This would be like saying that winter is not colder than summer because a very hot day in winter might happen to have much the same temperature as a very cold day in summer, ignoring all the other days.”
http://theconversation.edu.au/bob-carters-climate-counter-consensus-is-an-alternate-reality-1553
This sort of thing is lapped up by non-critical AGW supporters, who pay undeserved homage to ‘voices from authority’ but it takes us sceptics to pursue the actual reality –
The term “no net warming between 1958 and 2005” comes from a Weather Balloon graph on p.61 of Carter’s book entitled “Lower atmosphere mean global temperature radiosonde record HadAT2 (from Thorne et al., 2005)
.
The caption reads –
“Fig. 11a Estimated lower atmosphere global temperature records since 1958, based on measurements from weather balloon. Note the presence of (i) cooling from 1958 to 1977; (ii) warming, mostly as a step in 1977, from 1977-2005; and (iii) no net warming between 1958 and 2005. Over the same time period there has been an 18% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Black dots denote times at which the temperature falls upon the zero anomaly line, ie. no net change has occurred between them.”
And Carter makes it quite clear in the text that the temperature records from weather balloons “whilst highly accurate, are available only since 1958”
P. 59 Climate the Counter Consensus by Bob Carter.
Yet Karoly claims “there is no basis for this statement from scientific analysis of observational data” !!!
and tries to pass it off as
“In the Carter reality, he finds a hot year early in the period and a cold year much later, and says there’s been no warming. This would be like saying that winter is not colder than summer because a very hot day in winter might happen to have much the same temperature as a very cold day in summer, ignoring all the other days”
And who exactly is Karoly – well Donna Laframboise tell us on her excellent site –
He’s an IPCC Insider –
“The IPCC Insiders Club
… certain names pop up again and again in IPCC reports. If shadowy interests were trying to “control the message” in these documents, entrusting key tasks to a small group of people might be an effective strategy… Australian meteorologist David Karoly filled six separate IPCC roles. He served as a lead author and as a review editor. Along with Rosenzweig he was a lead author of a Technical Summary, a drafting author of a Summary for Policymakers, a member of the core writing team for the Synthesis Report, and was also an expert reviewer.”
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2011/03/25/the-ipcc-insiders-club/
So what exactly does that tell you about the standard of IPCC Reports !

cba
July 11, 2012 3:51 pm


Bill Tuttle says:
July 11, 2012 at 8:32 am
cba says:
July 11, 2012 at 4:59 am
wasn’t that the group that the unrepentant domestic terrorist david ayers was involved in? weren’t they the ones who blew up the madison wi university research building that killed some poor physics grad student back in the late 60s or early 70s?
The same.
Ayers produced the agitprop and left the bomb-making to people who *thought* they knew how to make bombs — which is the reason he’s one of only a very few Weathermen still alive…

Didn’t ayers lose his girlfriend to an incompetent bomb making effort?
My knowledge of this stuff has faded somewhat. I was half a continent away but it just so happens that the newest physics professor was a new phd from WI who happened to be a good friend of the grad student that was murdered by these terrorist thugs.
“J.Hansford says:
July 11, 2012 at 10:30 am
The Weather Underground’s operatives were responsible for robbing an armoured van and killing and wounding the guards….. Bernadine Dohrn and Bill Ayers where also Weather Underground members, they also happen to be linked to Barack Obama in Chicago….. Socialism. Keeps trying to modernize the same bad idea… They call themselves “Progressives” now.
Progressive Socialism…. There’s an oxymoron if there ever was one. But you gotta hand it to them…. They end up spending all our money on themselves while dictating the terms of societies direction…. They own science now. We may be right. But they own it… and they’re laughin’.
Makes you sick… and that makes them laugh even harder.

It’s amazing how ayn rand understood these guys and described their modus operandi in her novel the fountainhead. About the only way to describe them is as statists. they’re simply part of the problem that consists of a larger whole who have called themselves progressives throughout the 20th century. These include the socialists – both internalists (communists) and nationalists (nazis), the eugenics crowd from the early 1900s, the usual rot of malthusians and perhaps a bit more.
As for them calling themselves progressives, it sounds much better than admitting they are regressives seeking a feudalistic good old days that never existed and evidently are so full of themselves and their religious faith (godless) that they seem to border on mental retardation in some ways.

Mickey Reno
July 11, 2012 3:53 pm

John says: …it was a commentor called Jean S on his blog that first pointed it out not McIntyre.

You are correct. Steve was criticizing the Gergis paper for it’s selective inclusion of only some proxy datasets (a valid criticism) and for Gergis’ cavalier refusal to share the data that she used, and the data she rejected. Also her imperious “I will entertain no further communications with you” attitude.
In that thread, Jean S. actually noted the mathematical discrepancy between the claim of how their (limited-inclusion) data was processed and the result of that processing, which showed clearly that they had not followed their own published statistical procedures.
It’s my belief that Steve’s criticism alone would NOT have caused Gergis, Karoly (et.al) to withdraw the paper, as they were not embarrassed to have cherry picked their datasets when they had a sophistical and statisical explanation for so doing.