The IPCC can't learn from past mistakes – wants more grey literature

Dr. Rajenda Pachauri, IPCC chairman, pushing his racy romance novel Return to Almora

You’d think that after the drubbing they got last time around from the InterAcademy council for citing mentions of climate effects in travel brochures, climbing magazines, and the Himalayan glacier’s melting by 2035 fiasco, and other blunders, they’d want less grey literature. But apparently this is the anything goes in co-opted climate science beating out reason again. I’m beginning to wonder if the people running the IPCC don’t suffer from some sort of mental affliction. Or, maybe they are going for the insanity defense in case the climate doesn’t cooperate in the future?

I wonder if we’ll see citations from Return to Almora in the next IPCC report?

From the New Scientist:

The IPCC decided for the first time to impose strict geographical quotas on the scientists who author its major assessment reports. There will also be a push to increase the representation of women among its authors.

Controversially, it also voted to increase the role in those assessments of “grey literature”: publications not subject to peer review. Using such material in the last assessment is what led to the “glaciergate” scandal in 2010, when the report was found to have vastly overestimated the rate at which Himalayan glaciers are losing ice. […]

Krug told New Scientist this would correct an imbalance in the assessments as it is harder for people in developing countries to get research findings into the major peer-reviewed journals.

“There is a lot of information available in [the grey literature of] developing countries that would balance IPCC literature,” she said.

The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, but its reports are written by scientists. In the past these have been chosen largely on their scientific merit, but from now on the 30-person IPCC bureau – which oversees all publications – will have geographical quotas. For instance Africa will have five members and North America four. In addition, each of its three working groups must now include at least one person from every continent in their eight-person bureaux.

Full story at: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21940-climate-panel-adopts-controversial-grey-evidence.html

===============================================================

Looks like none of this took hold, from the Register

Report recommends UN climate panel shakeup

Rearrange the chairs please

By Andrew Orlowski

The InterAcademy Council, led by Dr Harold Shapiro, an economist at Princeton University, also said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had “gone beyond its mandate to be ‘policy relevant’ not policy prescriptive” – for which it recommended a new “communications policy”. The IPCC was also criticised for “confirmation bias” with lead authors placing “too much weight on their own views relative to other views”. It recommended working group co-chairs be limited to one assessment.

The (IAC) report is an indirect criticism of the part-time chairman Dr Rajendara Pachauri. The IAC Panel recommends a full-time chairman limited to a shorter term.

The investigation was prompted by criticisms of the IPCC’s fourth assessment report (AR4) published in 2007 – specifically the output of Working Group 2 (WGII), set up to examine the “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” and which produced a report ran to almost 1,000 pages. This was found to lean heavily on “grey literature”, including activist reports and even travel brochures. A prediction that that the Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035 was traced to a casual remark by an Indian scientist. Here and elsewhere, the IPCC excluded work that suggested that the impacts of global warming were overstated, or which were critical of the costs of the policy favoured by the UN and activist groups of mitigation, rather than adaptation.

The IAP said the IPCC’s work included headline-catching statements which couldn’t be justified.

Full story here

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FrankK
June 22, 2012 3:11 pm

I realize it’s not the done thing to draw attention to a persons appearance. But would you buy and trust a chicken vindaloo offering from the man pictured above?

D. J. Hawkins
June 22, 2012 3:23 pm

My God! Pauchauri looks like central casting’s idea of the perfect villian for “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom”. If I was travelling the hinterlands and he rode my way, I’d be moving my hand closer to my holster and looking around for his evil companions.

KnR
June 22, 2012 3:30 pm

Phil. the IPCC claims to show the BEST scientific knowledge available in the area so either its right and the best is in fact rubbish as it has an increasing addiction none-scientifically valued information and considers the gender/race of the person to be more important that the texts validity or its lying, which is it ?

June 22, 2012 3:33 pm

Berenyi–
ICSU is involved with the Future Earth Alliance I have been writing about with the Beverly Forum and UNESCO and UNEP and DIVERSITAS and a few others.
Hey. I didn’t create the name. Future Earth is going operational in 2013 treaty or not unless we understand it and start to say no funding at the national levels.
And get that the bureaucrats still know they have education internationally. In May the Economic and Social Council of the UN said they would be using ed going forward. And would go over that agenda in the July meeting.

June 22, 2012 3:34 pm

Belmont Forum. No typing while teenagers or cats are around.

DirkH
June 22, 2012 3:35 pm

The IPCC is irrelevant now.

Marian
June 22, 2012 3:49 pm

” I’m beginning to wonder if the people running the IPCC don’t suffer from some sort of mental affliction. Or, maybe they are going for the insanity defense in case the climate doesn’t cooperate in the future?”
By continuing down the path using dubious gray literature as climate science. They’ll hopefully maybe get some of those ardent defenders in the faith of the IPCC and their claims of robust science to start changing their tune?
It never was about the science. It was always about an agenda and a political ideal. passed off as science. Cherry picking out any science or factual information that’s goes total against them. In other words it’s actually anti-science. By not using proper scientific methodologies.
Voodoo Faux science employed by much of the IPCC never was actual science anyway. So I suppose as they say a Leopard can’t change its spots. So the IPCC will continue down a path of more over exaggerated BS passed of as Climate Science. It keeps the Chicken Little believing Warmists in nice junket being payed to write and selectively cherry pick more BS from the eco-propagandists amongst other!.

June 22, 2012 3:56 pm

KnR says:
June 22, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Phil. the IPCC claims to show the BEST scientific knowledge available in the area

Really, I thought that: “The IPCC is a scientific body. It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change.”
Where do you find that claim?

Merovign
June 22, 2012 3:59 pm

It was never about the environment, it was always about power and control.
And, frankly, “being honest and fastidious” doesn’t suit their purposes.

June 22, 2012 4:00 pm

Lets understand that this is all about the full take-over and control of the IPCC by global NGOs such as Greenpeace and WWF.
They’re the ones who sponsor and publish regional grey literature.

Marian
June 22, 2012 4:13 pm

“Baa Humbug says:
June 22, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Lets understand that this is all about the full take-over and control of the IPCC by global NGOs such as Greenpeace and WWF.”
Yes.
And aren’t some of those Elite’s who sponsor Greenpeace & WWF also fans of the UN, Global Governance and consider humanity to be parasites?
So no wonder there’s a bias in the IPCC to using Greenpeace & WWF literature as science fact!

mikemUK
June 22, 2012 4:17 pm

I don’t think we should be overly critical of the IPCC and AR5 yet, they appear to be trying to overcome a purely technical problem with their ‘grey literature’ approach.
I seem to recall Pachauri bragging (Glaciergate) something to the effect “one tiny error in over 3000 pages”.
Quantity, not quality, is the order of the day for the IMPRESSIVE Report (AR4 distributed to officialdom worldwide, probably only a handful ever fully read to this day).
I suspect their technical problem lies in that fewer scientists of the ‘climate’ variety are prepared to risk their reputations by contributing, and then watching their work battered into conformity during the review process, sometimes without their consent.
Faced with this, what can a poor IPCC do to bulk up their Report to the necessary number of pages without ‘grey literature’?
Sarc/ – hardly necessary, I think

Maxbert
June 22, 2012 4:34 pm

What we’re witnessing here is the collapse of the IPCC into complete irrelevance, by self-inflicted trivialization— a well-known path to demise in organizations of this type. (See: League of Nations, et al).

June 22, 2012 4:37 pm

Phil. says:
June 22, 2012 at 12:39 pm
So which is it to be? Or does it depend which point of view the non-peer-reviewed material favors?
=======================================================================
Admit it. You know the the answer. It isn’t the shades of grey that matter to the Indian railroad engineer …er… Lead UN Climate Scientist, but the shades of Green. (Enviro green and money green.) Admit it.

Go_Home
June 22, 2012 4:39 pm

Does this mean the IPCC can pull their retraction of the Glacier melt by 2035 and include it back in the next report?
Me thinks it is ok now….

Mooloo
June 22, 2012 4:54 pm

Can you imagine any other “science” working like this?
Imagine medicine accepting magazine articles written by activists. Imagine particle physics insisting that its working groups must include a quota of women. Imagine chemistry insisting that publications show no geographical bias.
What it achieves is making sure that one or two western activists in each group are surrounded by people who will not challenge them. Instead of arranging for a range of views in each group, which would be anathema, they can block that by the ridiculous insistence on geographical spread.

Sean
June 22, 2012 5:14 pm

“I’m beginning to wonder if the people running the IPCC don’t suffer from some sort of mental affliction.”
This realization is only just settling in Anthony????
As you seem to have recently concluded in the article after this one “Delusion is a big problem with the green crowd”. You can add to this observation that a lack of critical thinking skills, an extreme cognitive bias and the general lack of an ethical compass also afflicts members of the green movement.

davidmhoffer
June 22, 2012 5:26 pm

Phil.
C’mon. You’ve been a cheer leader for the “if it isn’t in a peer reviewed journal then it isn’t credible science” crowd in this forum for months. Are you sticking to your position? Or reversing yourself?
To be fair, what the IPCC has used to date is garbage science from peer reviewed journals and garbage science from non peer reviewed papers. They’ve ignored quality science from peer reviewed journals and they’ve ignored quality science from non peer reviewed papers. The argument shouldn’t be about the source, the argument should be about the quality, and the track record of the IPCC can hardly be declared to one of quality in either the peer reviewed or non peer reviewed literature.

June 22, 2012 5:38 pm

Is it just me or does “IPCC” bring “Ipecac” to mind for anyone else? You know, that stuff to make you throwup?

Jimbo
June 22, 2012 6:02 pm

You’d think that after the drubbing they got last time around from the InterAcademy council for citing mentions of climate effects in travel brochures, climbing magazines, and the Himalayan glacier’s melting by 2035 fiasco, and other blunders, they’d want less grey literature.

The problem is that if they tried to use less grey literature then the IPCC could not produce its fairy tales ‘scientific’ assessments.
Answers to the questionnaire distributed by an InterAcademy Council.
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2011/01/21/grey-literature-ipcc-insiders-speak-candidly/
As for Pachauri he is known to just make sh!t up.

…we carry out an assessment of climate change based on peer-reviewed literature, so everything that we look at and take into account in our assessments has to carry [the] credibility of peer-reviewed publications, we don’t settle for anything less than that.
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2011/01/21/grey-literature-ipcc-insiders-speak-candidly/

He is nothing but a brazen [self snipped]. 😉

E.M.Smith
Editor
June 22, 2012 6:30 pm

Oh Boy! Quota Science!! Can we now demand a “Quota set aside” for Skeptics as a minority? Can’t discriminate against minorities after all…
@Gunga Din:
It does now 😉

Andrew30
June 22, 2012 7:57 pm

“Chapter 27: Strengthening the Role of Non-Governmental Organizations – Partners for Sustainable Development
Introduction
Over the last decades, the importance of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in global governance has increased tremendously. Today, the UN and its agencies have grown dependent on NGOs to implement UN resolutions and goals, in a mutually beneficial relationship.”
Source: Review of implementation of Agenda 21 and the Rio Principles
http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/dsd_sd21st/21_pdf/Study_1_Agenda_21.pdf
“UN and its agencies have grown dependent on NGOs to implement UN resolutions and goals”

Gail Combs
June 22, 2012 11:22 pm

Pittzer says:
June 22, 2012 at 11:27 am
Is there a mechanism whereby the US government could write IPCC out of it’s share of the UN funding?
_______________________________
Yes!

…The U.S. Supreme Court has made it very clear that
1) Treaties do not override the U.S. Constitution.
2) Treaties cannot amend the Constitution. And last,
3) A treaty can be nullified by a statute passed by the U.S. Congress (or by a sovereign State or States if Congress refuses to do so), when the State deems a treaty the performance of a treaty is self-destructive. The law of self-preservation overrules the law of obligation in others. When you’ve read this thoroughly, hopefully, you will never again sit quietly by when someone — anyone — claims that treaties supercede the Constitution. Help to dispell this myth.
“This [Supreme] Court has regularly and uniformly recognized the supremacy of the Constitution over a treaty.” – Reid v. Covert, October 1956, 354 U.S. 1, at pg 17.
The Reid Court (U.S. Supreme Court) held in their Opinion that,

“… No agreement with a foreign nation can confer power on the Congress, or any other branch of government, which is free from the restraints of the Constitution. Article VI, the Supremacy clause of the Constitution declares, “This Constitution and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in pursuance thereof; and all the Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme law of the land…’
“There is nothing in this language which intimates that treaties and laws enacted pursuant to them do not have to comply with the provisions of the Constitution nor is there anything in the debates which accompanied the drafting and ratification which even suggest such a result…
“It would be manifestly contrary to the objectives of those who created the Constitution, as well as those who were responsible for the Bill of Rights – let alone alien to our entire constitutional history and tradition – to construe Article VI as permitting the United States to exercise power UNDER an international agreement, without observing constitutional prohibitions. (See: Elliot’s Debates 1836 ed. – pgs 500-519).
“In effect, such construction would permit amendment of that document in a manner not sanctioned by Article V. The prohibitions of the Constitution were designed to apply to all branches of the National Government and they cannot be nullified by the Executive or by the Executive and Senate combined.”

At this point the Court paused to quote from another of their Opinions; Geofroy v. Riggs, 133 U.S. 258 at pg. 267 where the Court held at that time that,

“The treaty power as expressed in the Constitution, is in terms unlimited except by those restraints which are found in that instrument against the action of the government or of its departments and those arising from the nature of the government itself and of that of the States. It would not be contended that it extends so far as to authorize what the Constitution forbids, or a change in the character of the government, or a change in the character of the States, or a cession of any portion of the territory of the latter without its consent.”

Assessing the GATT/WTO parasitic organism in light of this part of the Opinion, we see that it cannot attach itself to its host (our Republic or States) in the fashion the traitors in our government wish, without our acquiescing to it.
The Reid Court continues with its Opinion:

…”This Court has also repeatedly taken the position that an Act of Congress, which MUST comply with the Constitution, is on full parity with a treaty, the statute to the extent of conflict, renders the treaty null. It would be completely anomalous to say that a treaty need not comply with the Constitution when such an agreement can be overridden by a statute that must conform to that instrument.

….Here’s what Thomas Jefferson said on the right to renounce treaties:

“Compacts then, between a nation and a nation, are obligatory on them as by the same moral law which obliges individuals to observe their compacts. There are circumstances, however, which sometimes excuse the non-performance of contracts between man and man; so are there also between nation and nation. When performance, for instance, becomes impossible, non-performance is not immoral; so if performance becomes self-destructive to the party, the law of self-preservation overrules the law of obligation in others”.
…Article VI of the Constitution states:
Clause 2 – “This Constitution and the laws of the United States which shall be made in pursuance thereof, and all treaties made, or which shall be made, under the authority of the United States, shall be the supreme law of the land; and the judges in every state shall be bound thereby, anything in the constitution [of any state] or laws of any state to the contrary notwithstanding.”
http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/staterights/treaties.htm
Clause 2 has the following interpretation from

….Obligation of State Courts Under the Supremacy Clause
They were not to decide merely according to the laws or Constitution of the[p.921]State, but according to the laws and treaties of the United States—‘the supreme law of the land’.”18 State courts are bound then to give effect to federal law when it is applicable and to disregard state law when there is a conflict; federal law includes, of course, not only the Constitution and congressional enactments and treaties but as well the interpretations of their meanings by the United States Supreme Court….
Supremacy Clause Versus the Tenth Amendment
…. For a century after Marshall’s death, however, the Court proceeded on the theory that the Tenth Amendment had the effect of withdrawing various matters of internal police from the reach of power expressly committed to Congress…..
Speaking for the majority, Justice Barbour seized the opportunity to proclaim a new doctrine.

“But we do not place our opinion on this ground. We choose rather to plant ourselves on what we consider impregnable positions. They are these: That a State has the same undeniable and unlimited jurisdiction over all persons and things, within its territorial limits, as any foreign nation, where that jurisdiction is not surrendered or restrained by the Constitution of the United States. That, by virtue of this, it is not only the right, but the bounden and solemn duty of a State, to advance the safety, happiness and prosperity of its people, and to provide for its general welfare, by any and every act of legislation, which it may deem to be conducive to these ends; where the power over the particular subject, or the manner of its exercise is not surrendered or restrained, in the manner just stated. That all those powers which relate to merely municipal legislation, or what may, perhaps, more properly be called internal police, are not thus surrendered or restrained; and that, consequently, in relation to these, the authority of a State is complete, unqualified, and exclusive.”23

Justice Story, in dissent, stated that Marshall had heard the previous argument and reached the conclusion that the New York statute was unconstitutional.24
The conception of a “complete, unqualified and exclusive” police power residing in the States and limiting the powers of the National Government was endorsed by Chief Justice Taney ten years later in the License Cases.25 In upholding state laws requiring licenses for the sale of alcoholic beverages, including those imported from other States or from foreign countries, he set up the Supreme Court as the final arbiter in drawing the line between the mutually exclusive, reciprocally limiting fields of power occupied by the national and state governments.26….
http://www.law.cornell.edu/anncon/html/art6_user.html#art6_hd4

There is a heck of a lot more written in the CRS Annotated Constitution about where state’s rights override the federal government. The interesting thing is the Supreme Court decisions are not cast in stone so the Supreme Court can overturn prior interpretations as was done in the case of Federal vs the States.
The way things are going I think we may actually see states nullify agreements with the United Nations. The Constitution specifically say treaties are among nations and the UN is not a nation. Congress got around that point with a law declaring the UN a nation and not an organization.

…. The question of “nationhood” in reference to the United Nations seems to have been addressed by the errant Congress. A quick fix apparently took place in the U.S. Senate on March 19, 1970. According to the Anaheim (Cal) Bulletin, 4-20-1970, the Senate ratified a resolution recognizing the United Nations Organization as a sovereign nation. That would be tantamount to recognizing General Motors as a sovereign nation…. http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/staterights/treaties.htm

ZT
June 23, 2012 12:02 am

I wonder if it is significant that Almora is an anagram of amoral…?