Readers may recall yesterday that I posted this story : As hurricane season starts, the FSU hurricane season forecast is the odd man out citing “active”.
This was from the FSU press release at Eurekalert here which headlines “Hurricane season is here, and FSU scientists predict an active one” also backed up by this Google cache screencap at FSU’s web page below:
FSU has now changed the page to read:
Source: http://www.fsu.edu/
From active to near-normal in less than 24 hours. Who says you can’t change the weather?
😉
h/t to WUWT reader “Cam”
ALSO: Don’t forget to place your forecast in the WUWT Sea Ice Poll here
“Hurricane season is here, and FSU scientists predict an active one”
“Hurricane season is here, and FSU scientists predict a near-normal season”
Both forecasts used the same unique computer model with a knack for predicting hurricanes with unprecedented accuracy to boot.
Brilliant out-of-the-box thinking by the FSU!
If the latter forecast (projection?) turns out true they can claim that although other forecasts predicting an ‘active season’ their computer model got it spot on.
If it’s an ‘active season’ they can claim that they were the first to warn the world.
It’s like a bookmaker betting $100 on a 10-1 shot in their own premises and scooping the ca$h if it comes in while offsetting their bet against tax if it doesn’t.
Win,win;pure genius; take a bow Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies!
It seems the new-normal, active, is actually below average!
The forecast mean numbers are slightly below the 1995-2010 average of 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes, and reflect the possible emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and cooling surface water temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.
http://coaps.fsu.edu/hurricanes/
Are volcanic eruptions considered active events; or just hurricanes can be active ?
Mike Jowsey says:
June 2, 2012 at 7:37 pm
1995-2010 is not average over the long term, it is average for positive AMO periods. Negative AMO periods have many fewer storms, it might be worth while to refer to two averages instead of trying to come up with a single long-term average.
Are not publication corrections actively/normally accompanied by an explanation and apology to the public for the error? Who will notice a correction in a day old article on a obscure site? The whole matter seems pointless without acknowledgement. GK
George E. Smith; says:
June 2, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Are volcanic eruptions considered active events…?
In Iceland, they’re considered normal…
FSU: bitch-slapped by Anthony Watts! Go get ’em, Anthony!