Readers may recall yesterday that I posted this story : As hurricane season starts, the FSU hurricane season forecast is the odd man out citing “active”.
This was from the FSU press release at Eurekalert here which headlines “Hurricane season is here, and FSU scientists predict an active one” also backed up by this Google cache screencap at FSU’s web page below:
FSU has now changed the page to read:
Source: http://www.fsu.edu/
From active to near-normal in less than 24 hours. Who says you can’t change the weather?
😉
h/t to WUWT reader “Cam”
ALSO: Don’t forget to place your forecast in the WUWT Sea Ice Poll here
O H Dahlsveen says:
June 2, 2012 at 8:38 am
Forecasting what is going to happen in the future is silly and something I will never do.
_____________________
smarty pants
If that is supposed to be unprecedented accuracy, you really have to wonder just how much worse and abysmal the accuracy was previously.
How far away from normal does near-normal need to be not to be normal but near-normal ?
I’ll make my forecast for what will happen tomorrow next week.
I agree with Ryan Maue above, the verbiage error was most likely with the press release agent, not the scientists themselves. I find many examples of this sort of exaggeration in University press releases. Good for FSU for fixing it, though the horse was already out of the barn and well into the back forty due to Eurekalert press releases being serially regurgitated with little if any questioning.
There are 1710 Google results for the phrase: “Hurricane season is here, and FSU scientists predict an active one”
Hiding yet another decline….
Anybody keeping count of how many such word scrubs our AGW friends have done lately?
Mike Smith says:
June 2, 2012 at 8:08 am
> Maybe we should require all scientists to take a vow of celibacy?
Why? So they’ll have more time to keep an eye on the press release writers?
Anthony Watts says:
June 2, 2012 at 9:37 am
> There are 1710 Google results for the phrase: “Hurricane season is here, and FSU scientists predict an active one”
Google results inflation. I see 1720 results claimed, but the last one they display is #532. That one is NRL Monterey Develops More Accurate Tropical Cyclone Prediction Model dated November 18, 2011. The FSU story is just a link on the right side nav bar and goes to Hurricane Season Is Here, And FSU Scientists Predict an Active One which uses that line as the title. (And that has a link to FSU Scientists Use Unique Model to Predict Active 2010 Hurricane Season)
I’m surprised that there are at least 532 links to the story. I guess hurricane news travels fast this time of year. Perhaps the good people at the PR dept will contact all of them with the correction. 🙂
I can guaran-damn-tee you that my lab FSU-COAPS for 7-years and the head hurricane researchers are top-notch & would not have misled anyone with their forecasts. Thanks Anthony for clearing up the snafu.
FSU is calling for an ACE of 122 this year: here is the plot since 1970. 122 would be very active.
From my website (which used to be at FSU-COAPS): http://policlimate.com/tropical/
Dr Ryan Maue,
Are you actively directing the content at your website ‘policlimatic.com’. If so, I’ll add you to my bookmarks and visit.
perhaps someone at the FSU was woken up to the fact that ‘good lies ‘ in the name of ‘the cause ‘ are often see to be in practice not good but just lies in the eyes of most people .
A quasi-official organisation publishes a prediction, which has been actually financed by the taxpayer.
An non-funded, volunteer-only organisation points out how alarmist it is.
The quasi-official organisation tones down the headline back to, it’s actually going to be pretty normal.
Some sort of a honcho from the quasi-official organisation logs in and starts laying some sort of guilt trip on the non-funded, volunteer-only organisation.
It’s somehow their fault. WTF, it could only be climate science. Go figure …
Pointman
It goes to show how much they actually value their soothsaying of the future. It can change on a dime. And if it can change on a dime of reaction psychology politics to WUWT then their predictions have lost all their scientific content and thus value, for predictions, ahem, soothsaying based upon political considerations is not quite the way to predict weather events, and needless to say serious weather events such as these need to have zero political content and 100% science (as much as that can predict) in the predictions.
I just wonder how they were tipped off that Dick Cheney was out in the Atlantic in the “Haliburton Hurricane Machine” ….. and he would have gotten away with it, too, if it hadn’t been for you meddling kids!
Pamela Gray says
” Only thing is, having a government is a full time baby sitting job isn’t it.”
Excellent, Pamela, and so true (this from the UK side as well).
As we all know, correlation is not causation…BUT…that looks pretty suspicious.
Ryan Maue said June 2, 2012 at 10:55 am
FSU is calling for an ACE of 122 this year: here is the plot since 1970. 122 would be very active.
So, Dr Maue, according to your opinion, FSU scientists forecast is a very active 2012. Then, first front page was correct. What, in your opinion, could be the reason for the change?
johnbuk says:
June 2, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Pamela Gray says
” Only thing is, having a government is a full time baby sitting job isn’t it.”
Excellent, Pamela, and so true (this from the UK side as well).
Another way of saying, “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.”
Of interest Australia’s BOM forecasting over the last two cyclone seasons down under….
BOM’s 2010-2011 tropical cyclone forecast: 20-22 cyclones forecast with a high level of confidence.
BOM Summary: Above average tropical cyclone activity expected for the Australian region (98% chance!)
Season outcome: 11 actual cyclones (average is 12).
The 2011-2012 cyclone season Australia’s premier meteorological institute predicted an 80% chance that cyclones would exceed the long term average (12). The actual number of cyclones (8) was 33% below the long term average.
http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/cyclone-forecast-bom-part-2.html
and above all, read: Donna Laframboise: “THE DELINQUENT TEENAGER -Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert”. Apart from Amazon (where they do it), the best and cheapest version is the PDF edition which also contains 1,400 embedded links that take you directly to the source material cited. Available from TinyUrl.com/ipccexpose . PDF format will run on any platform incl. iPad. Get the free Adobe Reader, also available for any platform.
“Normal” since 2006 means no landfall hurricanes at all.
Ryan Maue says: FSU is calling for an ACE of 122 this year: here is the plot…
You mean they are being paid to predict a repeat of last year?
It is called people power and we are on the winning side
Does near normal mean more than normal or less than normal….or is it just a platitude?
Ryan Maue says:
June 2, 2012 at 10:55 am
FSU is calling for an ACE of 122 this year: here is the plot since 1970. 122 would be very active.
Ryan, in the last few years I’ve commented on weather records including floods, wildfires, droughts, tornadaos and the like on other threads, noting that when we have had such an extreme event, the news usually says the worst in 60 years (or so) a period when temps were cooler. My concern is that if we go into a cooling period as we may well have begun to, we are likely to see increases in many of these extreme events (wildfires in the southwest and drought, floods in the Red River of the North and other basins, tornadoes in “tornado alley” like in Joplin Missouri, etc.) and since the CAGW folks have been tying these events to the rise in CO2 and have been watching their predictions fail right and left, they will be rejuvenated again in the new cycle of these things. Do hurricanes show this type of cycle related to cooling and warming?