Got a bit sidetracked earlier in the month, this is overdue for an update. Earlier we reported that Hathaway had updated his solar cycle prediction saying “…the predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years. “. April solar index numbers seem to support this prediction.
All three main solar indexes tracked by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center are down in April.
First the sunspot number, down slightly.
Solar radio flux, down slightly, almost unchanged.
The solar geomagnetic field continues to try to get jump started, down 5 units since March.
Related articles
- The sun is still in a funk: sunspot numbers are dropping when they should be rising (wattsupwiththat.com)
- NASA/Hathaway’s updated solar cycle prediction – smallest in 100 years (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Geomagnetic data reveal unusual nature of recent solar minimum (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Solar Update March 2012 (wattsupwiththat.com)
To everyone that replied to my question, Thank you very much. I appreciate your answers, and they confirm my hazy recollection that they were projecting that this cycle would peak a lot earlier and a lot higher than has actually been the case.
A couple of things to bear in mind. Firstly, weak cycles tend to be long cycles. Altrock’s green corona emissions diagramme points to Solar Cycle 24 ending in 2026 and thus being 17 years long. Secondly, recent solar minima are associated with a 0.1 degree decline in temperature. So, conditions of continuous solar minima in terms of neutron count, which is what we have at the moment, can be expected to lower temperature at 0.1 degrees per annum. If that goes on for 17 years, the average over that 17 years is 0.85 degrees. That in turn is very close to the estimate of Northern Hemisphere cooling for Solar Cycle 24 by Solheim, Stordahl and Humlum, as described in this WUWT post: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/11/quantifying-the-solar-cycle-24-temperature-decline/
Everything remains on track. In fact we are heading towards this thing on railroad tracks.
First, thank you for effort of your reply.
But I disagree with the “railroad track” …. Where are the switches (in the theory, the constants, or the circulation models) that were so clearly incorrectly predicting a very high (highest ever – I remember reading several years ago) solar cycle 24?
Reality, the measured solar symptoms (sunspots) and outputs (neutrons, etc.), are very different than what was predcited only 3 and 4 years ago. What made those theories and calc’s so incorrect so quickly? Or were the theories actually correct, but only the predictions made using the theory incorrect? 8<)
ferd berple says: May 10, 2012 at 8:03 am
…………..
Present day experts have made up their mind, but there is always hope that one or two students were passing their time having a casual look at my graph, and perhaps in 15 or 20 years time when the sun goes blank for a prolong period, may recall the graph from their early academic years.
Here is extract of selected hits from first 8 hours of today’s log
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/May10Log.htm
Day Date, Page Loads, Unique Visits, First Time Visits, Returning Visits
Thursday 10th May 2012, 535, 489, 327, 162
Silver Ralph says: May 10, 2012 at 5:44 am
…………
If you cat isn’t a ‘CO2 warming’ academic, perhaps we should team-up to write a peer review paper.
[Should that be “your cat”? Robt]
Does anyone have all of the SC24 predictions and the ability to display on top of each other or as a changing graft. I know chris y has the info written out but it would be easier to see it visually displayed.
[Should that be “your cat”? Robt]
Thanks Robt
Yes indeed, I was referring to Silver Ralph’s cat: If I tied a pen to my cat’s tail, I would probably end up with the same graphs…..
Robbie says:
May 10, 2012 at 5:24 am
Let’s wait and see what temperatures are going to do the coming months/years. Because it is still too hot outside globally.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/05/uah-global-temperature-update-for-april-2012-0-30c/
___________________________
You are certainly no farmer. It is cold snaps that kill.
2010: Extended Period of Cold Raises Fears for Florida Crops
2010 Florida Freeze Results in 30% Crop Loss
Feb 2011 Thirty-five zoo animals freeze to death in Mexico’s coldest weather for 60 years
Feb 2012 Death count rises as big freeze shuts down eastern Europe
2012 More than 220 dead as Europe freezes
2009 in southwestern Tibet… a devastating rainstorm and snow disaster this May. A total of 9,816 head of livestock in the county were frozen to death.
2008 Tibet’s ‘worst snowstorm ever’, 7 killed
Nov 2008144,400 yaks and sheep die after record snowfall in Tibet 1,892 people evacuated
January 2011 Mass evacuations as China’s south battles ‘big freeze’
Feb 2012 China braces for big freeze
Jan 2008 CHINA: Millions shiver in big freeze…The snowy and cold weather, the worst in a decade in many places, has also left homes collapsed, power blackouts and crops destroyed.
July 2010 Freezing temperatures in the highlands of Peru have killed at least 400… government has declared a state of emergency as temperatures plummeted as low as -24C.
2012 Snow falls in Rome for the first time in 26 YEARS as -36c temperatures across eastern Europe send death toll to 150 (lots of neat photos from throughout Europe)
2012 Australia: Cold snap sets new record low temperatures
2010NZ: An extreme cold snap has broken temperature records
And that is just a minor sampling.
Henry Clark says: @ur momisugly May 10, 2012 at 5:29 am
….I would expect to see noticeable cooling start around 2014 – 2015, reaching really major cooling by the early 2020s … not yet, though, not right now, as GCR flux isn’t even that unusual at the moment in itself.
____________________________
I doubt if you would see major cooling even then. We have that great big hot water bottle called the oceans that do wonders at moderating the weather. (Thank goodness) However I would expect a gradual cooling and more “loopyness” in the jet streams. We are already seeing that with blocking highs. Just watch the jets over the USA for a while and you can see what I mean. They are no longer straight out of the west as they were a few years ago. http://classic.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xpxJetStream.html
Geoff says: May 10, 2012 at 4:36 am
According to Archibald a 2 deg C drop in temps will
wipe out the Canadian grain basket…….
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Silver Ralph says: May 10, 2012 at 5:52 am
Maybe, but perhaps it will simply relocate to Arizona.
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Steve Keohane says: @ur momisugly May 10, 2012 at 7:17 am
Try growing grain in sand… I bet it would take at least two generations to turn desert into arable land.
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The super market predators really do have a problem understanding exactly what it takes to grow food.
I am puzzled that your top ISES graph shows sunspot numbers falling in April – when the SWO number rose in April
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt
The RI number fell.
I have posted on this disparity. – “USA and European solar research groups differ over whether sunspots increased or decreased in April”
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=1534
Peter C (UK) says: @ur momisugly May 10, 2012 at 9:39 am
…We don’t live hand to mouth as most did in those days but imagine the problems that would arise if the North American or European harvests failed for two successive years.
_______________________
Do not bet on that. The rule of thumb is that world grain reserves should not drop below 70 days of consumption… is moving uncomfortably close to the 64 day.. The grain traders decided grain/food reserves mucked up their profits and got rid of the grain reserves starting in 1996 with the “Freedom to Farm Act” written by the VP of cargill Dan Amstutz. Then the Bio-fuel laws hit and by 2008 the USDA announced the cupboard is bare.
This paper seems to have a baring on the discussion.
On the relationship between global, hemispheric and latitudinal averaged air surface temperature (GISS time series) and solar activity.
Gail Combs, May 10, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Steve and Gail, you see this homestead? Now zoom out one click at a time or take a look at this. Doesn’t take generations, not all desert is sand.
@ur momisugly Gail Combs says:
May 10, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Geoff says: May 10, 2012 at 4:36 am
According to Archibald a 2 deg C drop in temps will
wipe out the Canadian grain basket…….
—————————-
Silver Ralph says: May 10, 2012 at 5:52 am
Maybe, but perhaps it will simply relocate to Arizona.
—————————
Steve Keohane says: @ur momisugly May 10, 2012 at 7:17 am
Try growing grain in sand… I bet it would take at least two generations to turn desert into arable land.
————————–
The super market predators really do have a problem understanding exactly what it takes to grow food.
**************************************************************************
Indeed. It’s a good deal different than a back yard garden plot, as you know. N from natgas, P and K from mines. Plus other essential nutrients such as sulfer, etc. Can’t feed the world on manure anymore. Millions of tons of industrial NPK, etc. are needed every year for food, animal feed, and ethanol. This totally escapes the greenies consciousness.
An interesting bit of info:
“In 2007, at the current rate of consumption, the supply of phosphorus was estimated to run out in 345 years. However, some scientists now believe that a “peak phosphorus” will occur in 30 years and that at “current rates, reserves will be depleted in the next 50 to 100 years.”
Disaster unfolds. It is nothing dramatic. No explosions, no high energy impacts, nothing obvious to most of the herd. But quietly, the parameters of a vast disaster settle into place. The seeds of mass starvation are sowed. Most of the sowing is self inflicted and driven by idiotic belief in the AGW bogeyman.
Tag pendantry/
should be:
sarc/
….
/sarc
/Tag pedantry
Chris, here’s a wee formatting trick for that kind of table: use the <pre> tags (means pre-formatted). It keeps spaces as entered (avoid tabs, tho’):
Enjoy!
Oops, looks like I should have fiddled it more:
Date date of peak date of made minimum activity maximum 01/2004 1/07 160 01/2005 1/07 145 2010 01/2006 1/07 145 2010 01/2007 6/07 145 2010 03/2008 6/08 130 2011.5 01/2009 1/09 105 2012 04/2009 4/09 104 2013 05/2009 5/09 90 2013.5 11/2009 5/09 50 20?? 04/2010 12/08 70 2013.5 06/2010 12/08 65 2013.5 10/2010 12/08 64 2013.5 12/2010 12/08 64 2013.5 04/2011 12/08 62 2013.5 12/2011 12/08 99 2013.2 03/2012 12/08 59 2013.2 05/2012 12/08 60 2013.2That’s better.
Though the title spacing still needs correction. Different fonts, different strokes …
For your average coastal desert:
http://www.seawatergreenhouse.com/technology.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelkanellos/2012/03/27/air-the-hot-new-thing-in-green-technology/
Gail Combs says:
May 10, 2012 at 4:42 pm
“I doubt if you would see major cooling even then. We have that great big hot water bottle called the oceans that do wonders at moderating the weather. (Thank goodness)”
Such as a hypothetical future Maunder Minimum repeat would be major cooling as far as I define it (ramping up over a decade or so superimposed upon shorter-term oscillations like El Ninos versus La Ninas), as in the historical record, although you may be expecting rather more like just a Dalton Minimum, or a return to higher levels of solar activity, or almost anything else. Although there are always an assortment of predictions, nobody seems to know conclusively exactly how future solar activity will go after the next several years, or, at least, if anybody does, it would be hard to tell that they really do.
Gail Combs says:
May 10, 2012 at 4:42 pm
“However I would expect a gradual cooling and more “loopyness” in the jet streams. We are already seeing that with blocking highs. Just watch the jets over the USA for a while and you can see what I mean. They are no longer straight out of the west as they were a few years ago. http://classic.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xpxJetStream.html”
It could be interesting to see how that goes in the future, if there is a Grand Minimum; the last one was so far before modern instrumental data.
Curiousgeorge says:
May 10, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Indeed. It’s a good deal different than a back yard garden plot, as you know. N from natgas, P and K from mines. Plus other essential nutrients such as sulfer, etc. Can’t feed the world on manure anymore. Millions of tons of industrial NPK, etc. are needed every year for food, animal feed, and ethanol. This totally escapes the greenies consciousness.
An interesting bit of info:
“In 2007, at the current rate of consumption, the supply of phosphorus was estimated to run out in 345 years. However, some scientists now believe that a “peak phosphorus” will occur in 30 years and that at “current rates, reserves will be depleted in the next 50 to 100 years.”
The first paragraph is all true. However, regarding the bottom quote, “scientists” in it really means some environmentalists pushing a general anti-growth agenda (of which CAGW claims are another symptom of the overall movement), where some make inaccurate claims like that about everything, even iron. The quote sounded like it came from Wikipedia, and sure enough it did, so I edited Wikipedia now (in appropriate language superficially unbiased and more fitting an encyclopedia than this), fixing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphate with additional info and references.
More casually speaking, beyond the 71 billion tons of reserves counted by the USGS (for mining at near exactly present market prices with no technological change over time), there are a vast amount of intermediate ores between such and roughly on the order of 3 million billion tons of phosphorus in Earth’s 3 * 10^19 ton crust. Although even the average rock has phosphorus at 0.1% concentration, never would it be necessary to mine literally just random rocks to meet the 0.2 billion tons/year world phosphorus production requirements of today as there are always intermediate-concentration ores cheaper to mine. We won’t run out of phosphorus: not in 100 years, in 1000 years, or essentially ever within the foreseeable future.
Henry Clark says:
May 12, 2012 at 6:37 am
Everyone seems to forget matter is neither created or destroyed unless it is nuclear fission/fusion. If worse comes to worse we mine garbage heaps and the ocean.
On temperatures, someone (I think up thread) said the effects of the sun are seen about two to four years later. In looking at the local temperature in central North Carolina a couple years after the solar max of cycle 23 and the solar min (2008) for the month of May.
2010 (~ 2 yrs after min)….. 2004(~ 2 yrs after solar max)
4day – 91F…………………..6 days – 91F
…………………………………..6 days – 93F
…………………………………. 2 days – 95F
………………………………….1 days – 96F
We had one day at 91F, 12 days under 80F and the five day forecast is also for max temps in the seventies. Not exactly the heat wave of 2004 so far. It is now a chilly 62F. I am not complaining it is nice to actually have a spring instead of a quick jump straight into summer.
Of course we are following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Nearest big city Fayetteville NC.
Gail Combs says:
May 12, 2012 at 7:26 am
“On temperatures, someone (I think up thread) said the effects of the sun are seen about two to four years later. In looking at the local temperature in central North Carolina a couple years after the solar max of cycle 23 and the solar min (2008) for the month of May.”
2 to 4 years lag time would fit roughly around the most typical cycle length of the Southern Oscillation Index. Perhaps effective lag times may vary from sometimes an internal cycle neutralizing the effect of variation in external radiative input temporarily, yet other times reinforcing, like superimposing two waveforms which sometimes interfere constructively and sometimes destructively.
With that said, I am certainly aware there is ocean thermal inertia influencing lag on top of that even aside from the oscillations.
I’d actually love to see someone truly combine modeling ocean oscillations (from short ones like the SOI to longer ones like indeed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation you mentioned) with solar variation, as generally any single article seems to focus on one or the other but not all combined. No doubt the difficulty is in trying to pick out what part of ocean variation is relatively independent and which is dependent; for instance, the multivariate ENSO index apparently includes cloud cover as a factor, but that would be influenced by current cosmic ray variation and not purely the ocean oscillation “itself” alone, although the SOI may be more a single variable index somewhat reducing complications perhaps.
Gail Combs says:
May 12, 2012 at 7:26 am
“We had one day at 91F, 12 days under 80F and the five day forecast is also for max temps in the seventies. Not exactly the heat wave of 2004 so far. It is now a chilly 62F. I am not complaining it is nice to actually have a spring instead of a quick jump straight into summer.”
You must be a long-term resident of North Carolina to have gotten used to thinking of that as relatively chilly. 😉 But I agree.
Gail Combs says:
May 12, 2012 at 7:26 am
“Of course we are following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Nearest big city Fayetteville NC.”
That’s a good graph of the AMO.
I wonder how much would be the relatively intrinsic temperature effect of the AMO index aside from other influences. For instance, the 1940s were warmer than the 1910s, while the AMO index is seen to be around +0.2 versus -0.2 in that graph, yet a big question to me is how much quantitatively was due to the AMO (and the other near-60-year cycle, the PDO) intrinsically versus how much from the rise in solar activity over that time, e.g. what multiplier would convert from an AMO index value to a temperature value if superimposed on top of other factors like solar input…
Vukcevik says
Predictions are just opinions, and since the sun is ‘a messy place’ (L.S) they are more likely to be wrong than correct.
Henry says
Personally I think we are on this curve:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/orssengo3.png
which came from here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/25/predictions-of-global-mean-temperatures-ipcc-projections/
One of Orssengo’s predictions is that global cooling and warming phases alternate with each other and that we are now in a cooling phase. …
Currently my own investigations
http://letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
for the period indicated by him, actually confirm this.
Both him and myself are pointing to around 1994 or 1995.
What do you think about that?
In your crystal (sun) bowl do you see 1994 or 1995 as a significant turning point?