Guest post by Scott Gates
Much as with the UK – where their “drought” is demonstrated by severe flooding … in Minnesota it is much the same.
The government forecasters (NOAA) claims we’re in a long term moderate to severe drought ……… LINK HERE – pic Here:
…. the REALITY is far different …
LINK HERE to last 30 days rainfall – pic here:
LINK HERE to Normal 30 day rainfall – pic here:
Most of the “Moderate to Severe Long Term drought area has seen 200% to 600% of “normal” rainfall over last 30 days.
LINK HERE – pic here:
An interesting – to me – observation is the precip pattern from Southern to Northern MN and the Eastern Dakotas almost exctly matches the normal precip pattern – just in much higher numbers of total precip. CAGW proponents will try to tell us this is because of all the extra water vapor due to warmer temps – which would of course be pretty ridiculous because then we wouldn’t have had drought the last appx 1 year with extreme precip and snow a year earlier.
What it shows – to me as a layman – again, is that it is weather patterns, both longer term but also the minutia of each days weather – where the fronts are, what the winds are doing, how the jet stream is flowing, where the moisture is coming, what the temp gradients are etc etc that are what is determining the weather – not some ridiculous theory based on computer models with garbage inputs.
Heck – even the SHORT TERM weather models – looking 7 days out or less – cannot usually agree. My anecdotal experience form occasional looks is that the European ECMWF model is usually more accurate in my area than the US models.
And while that precip has been steady throughout the spring so far – the last 24 hours shows it is a change in weather patterns not “climate” underlying all – weather patterns change and with them so too does the “weather” …. if it was “climate” change we would see increasingly frequent and sustained weather change with a trend in one direction … we have not … a year ago (2010-2011) the winter in the area saw record snowfall – then “moderate to severe drought” thru the summer, fall and 2011-2012 winter … yet now we’ve seen the weather pattern change again and are seeing huge rain events such as this:
Storm total (appx last 24 hours) – screen save from my GRLevel3 – over 10″ in some areas :
Monsoon rains and yet we are in moderate to severe drought. But it must just be a few recent extreme events like last 24 hours that caused this – right?
Nope:
Past week – majority of area 300-600% above normal over most of southern MN – 3-5″ above normal
Past 14 days – majority 300-500% of normal – 2-5″ above normal
Past 30 days – majority 200-400% of normal – 3-5+” above normal
Past 60 days – majority 150-300% of normal – 2-6″ above normal
Past 90 days – majority 150-300% of normal – 4-6″ above normal
Past 180 days – majority 125-200% of normal – 2-6″ above normal
Well, you know, if the models say it’s so, then it must be so – regardless of what is actually happening!
wouldn’t the extra water vapor just become more free oxygen when exposed to ultraviolet light. Why does the CO2 argument continue to make the media rounds without being challenged by the physics and chemistry of warm weather processes that are composing our atmosphere with a 78% concentration of N2 and a 21% concentration of O2. If CO2 caused warming then wouldn’t it entail that more N2 and O2 would be produced at such significantly greater rates (that creating 78%/&21%concentrations that the concentration of CO2 must decline under warming conditions.
A fuller response would simply describe how the above and the following are true:
Why do temperatures on earth warm…Atmospheric heights increase and thus Earth’s Radiative Budget Equation loses effect because atmospheric pressure is less. Why does the atmosphere increase in height? 1) Albedo 2) Warmer oceans 3) Magnetic Field disruption by Solar Activity- Magnetosphere density decreases and Ionosphere expands.
a) When the Magnetosphere is dense(tectonics/cosmic rays) the ultimate effect of Albedo and Ocean temperatures upon atmospheric heights is less
b) Oceans will release CO2 at enhanced rates until the temperature threshold for CO2 absorption is reached.
c) CO2 increases in concentration when the atmosphere and its boundary layers shrink and natural processes that effect concentration of Nitrogen and Oxygen are not enhanced by warming.
d)Terraforming deserts will lower atmospheric heights which will increase precipitation and lower temperatures (think rainforests).
e) Painting roofs white to use the physics of albedo will increase atmospheric heights (desertify/ enhance urban heat islands>>>
Its the same in Australia. It took 2 years of far above average rainfall and multiple floods for the government to declare the drought over.
http://m.smh.com.au/environment/weather/its-official-australia-no-longer-in-drought-20120427-1xpsp.html
Farmers are a powerful lobby group.
this reminds me of the articles coming from the UK insisting that their hosepipe ban must remain due to the extreme drought conditions despite the wettest April in almost 100 years. Don’t they lose some credibility when people simply look outside?
Hi Anthony,
you can read?
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2012/04/april_soaker_south_of_metro_dr.shtml
o.k. now try to start thinking.
Good luck!
Similar to events here in parts of England. Hosepipe bans are in force & it’s done nothing but rain for a month!
One valid point, was that we’ve had 18 months or so, of below-average rainfall, then a month of double the average, still leaving us 17″ down, so ground water & aquifer levels are still below where they should be.
‘PAGING Stokes, Adler and Perlwitz!’
Eastern Australia was in permanent drought. (CHECK)
UK is in drought (CHECK)
Minnesota – long term moderate to severe drought (CHECK)
/ end SARC
Now back to reality. When are these loons going to realise that climate change / weather changes happen and is happening – just not always in one direction, as it has always done. At any one time there will be a part of the world in drought or flood and there is now observable evidence that it’s caused by man’s co2.
For more on weird weather from the past see:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/bad-weather/
For more on extreme weather trends or lack thereof see:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/26/global-hurricane-activity-at-historical-record-lows-new-paper/#comment-689783
“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”
Having worked in a research environment I know Humpty Dumpty’s words are literally true. A educated person might innocently think a pediatric patient is a child. In several projects we had “pediatric” patients in their early twenties because the term was (re-)defined to mean a patient having had heart surgery as an infant. As long as you know what meaning has been chosen it all makes sense.
The problem in this story and in the UK is only very poor communication.
Same in france. Extreme drought demonstrated by incessant rain. Temperatures in normal range for the season. Al the while we were bombarded with serious looking guys (usually bearded in sweaters) telling how awful the drought was.
Reality check:
Excessive drainage of groundwater over the years due to corn crop caused the watertable to drop.
Experts of all types are getting caught with their nonexistent trousers down. This is similar to the experts in the equally murderous pseudoscience of “economics”. They continue to tell us that we are in a “recovery”, and we need to follow their suicidal orders perfectly or else we will end up in a “double-dip recession”. Anyone who observes REALITY knows that we are in a continuous recession with no hope of exit as long as the transparently false theories of “economists” are in charge.
@Adam Gallon
One valid point, was that we’ve had 18 months or so, of below-average rainfall, then a month of double the average, still leaving us 17″ down, so ground water & aquifer levels are still below where they should be.
UK rainfall patterns are highly variable – around 33% each side of average. The low period was not out of character. You handle variation in rainfall by storing water in the wet periods to use in the dry ones. For the South East, about 70% of storage is in underground aquifers, which are hard to expand. That leaves surface reservoirs to take up the slack.
We have had an 11% increase in population in the SE of the UK, and water companies have proposed 5 new reservoirs, and extensions to 3 more, to cope with this. See their 2004 plans. ALL these reservoir works have been halted by government intervention, because it is government policy that we should use 20% less water (see the ‘Water Futures’ policy document (2008)).
There is no reason I can see to plan to cut down on water usage. It is not a scarce resource – it just passes through us in a cycle. We can store as much as we want. But it is government policy NOT to provide enough infrastructure to service demand. Why – I have no idea. There is no environmental reason not to, and the water companies want to….
@MFKBoulder says:
May 8, 2012 at 1:09 am
Your URL-without-point-made has an interesting link at the bottom, wherein it says:
So far 4.23 inches of rain has been measured at the official site, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. That’s an inch more than the average rainfall for an entire month of May. So lawns are growing like crazy.
… So, your point is what, exactly?
MFKBoulder says:
May 8, 2012 at 1:09 am
“Hi Anthony,
you can read? ”
The question is, can you, as this post has not been authored by Anthony.
Last year in North-Western Iowa (lower part of the drought zone) we went from July through November with very little rain. It was arguably a drought and more than a little worrisome because of the effect on corn/bean yields.
This year’s been pretty good for rain so far. The fields are certainly wet right now and the corn is up (if anyone was wondering) because the farmers were able to get into the fields weeks early due to the warm days. I’d chalk it up to weather and not worry too much about it.
Before mankind started to affect the climate droughts were caused by lack of water. Nowadays they can be caused by increasing CO2 levels. Consequently we sometimes have old style droughts where everything is too dry but occasionally we get new style droughts where everything is too wet. Is that clear?
The US Drought Monitor map also shows southern SC (where I live and work) to be under extreme to exceptional drought. Horse Poop! In late winter and early spring, we did have lower than average rainfall but nothing that could be called a drought. There was no stress to vegetation, controlled burns were allowed the entire time, and recent rains have returned groundwater, rivers, and lakes back to nearly normal levels. Despite this “extreme climate change”, the birds, bugs, bunnies, and all the rest of us are just fine, thanks.
When a government agency won’t even report rainfall accurately in order to push a political agenda, it’s time to clean house! Fire these liars at NOAA and NASA.
Dodgy Geezer says:
May 8, 2012 at 2:27 am
I couldn’t agree more. There is no ‘drought’. There IS a severe ‘water shortage’ due to crass mismanagement and government interference. Cutting dividends and exorbitant salaries and bonuses to fix the leaks would take care of the problem. According to what I read at UKReferendum, leakage alone empties the equivalent of the whole amount of water available every 700 days. Unbelievable!
Roy, I think you have got it finally. Global warming, CO2, cow gas all causes winters to be too cold, too warm or normal. Of great scientific, consensus interest is that summers can now be too cold, too hot or normal as well. Before in any season it could be too cold, too hot or normal. I think this might represent ‘new’ thinking – ‘the three bears effect’
DirkH says:
May 8, 2012 at 3:09 am
nope as MFKBoulder is just another drive-by wanna-be who knows that they are losing people to the truth and are now so upset that rational thought and things like looking at more than just the headline are going out the window.
Correction. It’s EUReferendum. And to quote: “We are told, on the one hand, that almost a quarter of the entire country’s four billion gallon water supply – around 750 million gallons (3.4 billion litres) – is disappearing from the system every day because companies have failed to stop leaks.”
I thought the drought monitor was only updated every 2 weeks? I would expect the drought monitor to show additional relief for minnesota at the next update. You should have shown the evolution of the drought monitor map to see if it was changing with the rainfall.
A Lovell says:
May 8, 2012 at 4:44 am
Correction. It’s EUReferendum. And to quote: “We are told, on the one hand, that almost a quarter of the entire country’s four billion gallon water supply – around 750 million gallons (3.4 billion litres) – is disappearing from the system every day because companies have failed to stop leaks.”
==================================
Whilst this may be true, I can’t help wondering whether it’s actually an issue. There’s a water cycle, so presumably any water that leaks from the infrastructure goes to either a) ground water or b) surface water, depending on the source of the leak. If it’s to ground water, then all it does is replenish the ground water supply. If it’s to surface water, it’ll follow what happens to any other surface water in the area (or evaporate). In any event, the leaking water is not “lost”, it’s merely hiding somewhere the water companies don’t want it to be – but is still in the water cycle
MFKBoulder says:
May 8, 2012 at 1:09 am
Thanks for the link. Here’s another…
Drought Buster: Wettest May in 8 years; Huge sunspot may trigger auroras.
Posted at 11:34 PM on May 7, 2012 by Paul Huttner
May Monsoon:
Somebody flipped the rainfall switch “on” this month.
In the past week, waves of torrential rains have dumped anywhere from 2″ to 7″+ in southern Minnesota in a band from near Sioux Falls to Redwood Falls, Mankato and right into the Twin Cities metro.
Check out the impressive rainfall totals map below for the past week from the Twin Cities NWS.
I’ve been reading the Drought Monitor site for some time, and the authors do seem to have an alarmist bend in their narratives (what a surprise), but seem to follow some pretty robust methods. But I agree, those amounts of rain should have eliminated drought in southern MN.