There was a lot of controversy leading up to this moment, as we covered previously on WUWT where NSIDC put a new trailing average algorithm online with no notice, and bungled the climatology in the process, needing a fix. As has been the case before when NSIDC data goes wonky it was those bloggers of “breathtaking ignorance” who spotted the issue before NSIDC did and brought it to their attention.
Here’s today’s graph: (NSIDC publishes a day behind)
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
Now, it should be pointed out that it hasn’t crossed the normal line, and it only touches it because of the line width, it is still ever so slightly below normal according to Cryosphere Today.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
I noted yesterday that the difference was -0.070, so it has nudged away from the normal line a bit. This is supported by the NORSEX data, enlarged here:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png
Clearly though, by the NORSEX data, Artic Sea Ice was briefly above the 1979-2006 monthly average, but is now headed back down. NSIDC’s trailing average will filter out this short above normal excursion, and I predict that it will turn slightly away from the normal line tomorrow or the next day.
Overall though, we have a pretty full north polar ice cap, especially in the Bering Sea, which has seen record high extents this year. This is encouraging:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_bm_extent_hires.png
All of this bears watching at the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page but we’ll soon be into the ho-hum period when all of the years data converge on the way to the minimum sometime in September. While we have near normal extent now, that doesn’t always translate into near normal minimums.
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So it is true! President Obama has stiopped the seas from rising, restored the ice to the poles and prevented the global catastrope. Another Nobel prize is in order, no?
bubbagyro … Leif is correct … there are often errors in the ice charts as shown. For example the ice shown to the south of Newfoundland and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence does not exist … see here: http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS28/20120425180000_WIS28_0006413677.gif
bubbagyro says:
April 26, 2012 at 8:50 am
This standard cited is for 15% ice cover. That is less than 1/4 of an ice cube in a glass. You are saying that there is zero floating ice in the area at all? As far as one can see? I think a satellite may have a better viewing perspective than a land-bound person.
People there have boats too. I used to live there. There is no ice there now.
bubbagyro says:
April 26, 2012 at 8:50 am
This standard cited is for 15% ice cover.
The green areas here are for 10-40% ice cover:
http://www.itameriportaali.fi/html/icef/icemap_c.pdf
there is no ice there now.
And this one is even more telling:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_area.png
Arctic ice is actually above the average since 1979…..
The “Normal” line? No one actually knows what the mean represents within extended Natural cycles so saying its “Normal” is a bit over the top for me.
dcb283 – The Polar Bears are defiantly interested. They may soon resume their hockey season.
The wind has been moving ice to the extent boundaries recently. I suspect this has something to do with the current situation. If that’s true, then that means more ice will be vulnerable to melting as we get into the warmer months.
I had thought the winds were helping to thicken the ice most of the winter. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
On the odd occasion that the current sea ice extent touches the normal line, everyone starts crowing that everything is normal. This is madness! The current sea ice needs to trend as much over the line as it does below it, over the course of a full year, for a true recovery to be declared. While this is encouraging, it’s still far from normal! In the meantime, this “glancing blow” is most probably just that. It is also sad state indeed, when the best we can expect in terms of sea ice extent, is a brief flirtation with normal conditions.
Go, Baby Ice, Go. But don’t go too far, now; please stick to the ocean.
==============
J. Philip Peterson says:
April 26, 2012 at 10:11 am
And this one is even more telling:
==================
This is my favorite, note its 30% and interactive (can select any year(s) to view and points within each year — complete satellite record):
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
Ben Kellett,
Arguing with the planet is a fool’s errand.
2 things
I believe our ice is running 9 day mean while norsex may be the daily. Not sure, please clarify.
As far as the normal. The only reason that there is hoopla about it is BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE SAYING IT WOULD BE GONE THIS SUMMER, and given the cold pdo and soon to be cold ( 10years amo) there is no death spiral. If your team is forecasted to win 0 games in a football season and you find they win half the games, it may be no big deal as far as the playoffs but the people saying they would win none are plainly wrong
And those of us that said the dropping would level off and the “death spiral” and no recovery were nonsense are plainly right.. up to now. Remember while the left wing hit pieces came after
me for being underdone on ice melt last year but my forecast was for a return to 1978 levels in 2030, and that is simply based on the reality of the cold pdo and amo returning. It is a lot closer to my way of thinking than a death spiral from which there is no escape.
I said in 07 it was absurd to think we would lose the icecap in 12 or 13, as did most rationale clear thinking humans, and the hoopla is over the fact that touching normal at the end of April is no where near the end of the ice.
And guess what, next year it will be higher, even as s hem icecap has been mainly above normal
heh, I heard Joe Biden today say Obama can run on a mantra, Bin Ladens Dead, GM is alive. why not add, and so is the ice cap.
Leif, we saw the same earlier in the year with NSIDC showing sea ice round the southern UK – where it simply never happens, and I don’t count a bit of slush on the beaches.
“…it hasn’t crossed the normal line, and it only touches it because of the line width, it is still ever so slightly below normal .”
Considering the stochastic variability of the measurements involved, I would say this reading is *indistinguishable* from the “normal.”
I dislike the word “Normal” when it comes to anything regarding climatology, temperature readings, and any function of the planet we live on. Because we’re not talking about “Normals” we’re talking about “Averages” from the time we started keeping track of what’s happening on our planet as a whole. The word “Normal” is a deceptive thing and can make the gullible think that science knows what is “Normal” for our planet. And in fact there truly isn’t a “Normal” for this planet, unless you want to say a Glaciated state is normal, since it’s in that state now longer than it’s in an inter-Glaciated state.
Is it just me or do others have a problem with the term “Normal” that is used for the 1976 to 2006 average?
Joseph Bastardi says:
April 26, 2012 at 10:33 am
As far as the normal. The only reason that there is hoopla about it is BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE SAYING IT WOULD BE GONE THIS SUMMER,
Actually they were saying ‘Could’ and ‘mostly/nearly ice-free’, and most of them around 2013-2016.
and given the cold pdo
Which means warmer water in the Bering and southerly wind stress.
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
And those of us that said the dropping would level off and the “death spiral” and no recovery were nonsense are plainly right.. up to now.
Premature, not much sign of a ‘plain’ recovery in the minimum in September.
Remember while the left wing hit pieces came after
me for being underdone on ice melt last year but my forecast was for a return to 1978 levels in 2030, and that is simply based on the reality of the cold pdo and amo returning.
Your guess that they would return, not the ‘reality’.
It is a lot closer to my way of thinking than a death spiral from which there is no escape.
I said in 07 it was absurd to think we would lose the icecap in 12 or 13, as did most rationale clear thinking humans, and the hoopla is over the fact that touching normal at the end of April is no where near the end of the ice.
And guess what, next year it will be higher, even as s hem icecap has been mainly above normal
We’ll see.
A lot of weather reports report above normal or below normal when they really mean above or below average. Average should include the period of time that was used to compute the average of whatever they are reporting on. (and you wonder how accurate that average number is now with all the revisionist shenanigans going on).
“bubbagyro says:
April 26, 2012 at 8:50 am
Leif:
This standard cited is for 15% ice cover. That is less than 1/4 of an ice cube in a glass. You are saying that there is zero floating ice in the area at all? As far as one can see? I think a satellite may have a better viewing perspective than a land-bound person.”
Bubbagyro
As another Dane (like Leif Svalgaard) I can guarantee you that there is at present absolutely no sea ice around the Danish Islands of Fyn and Sealand etc. End of story.
This is interesting! Note that the sun is much higher in the Arctic sky at this time of year – only 9 weeks before summer solstice – than at the time of sea ice minimum in September. So the ice cover in the next 9 weeks (and at the other side of the solstice, i.e. until mid-August) is much more important for the albedo feedback than the time of the minimum! And in September and later, the open sea cooling faster than if it had been covered with ice, constitutes a negative feedback…
J. Philip Peterson says:
April 26, 2012 at 11:03 am
I agree, it’s the 1979-2000 Average line (On the NSIDC graph)
Resourceguy says:
April 26, 2012 at 9:26 am
The will be a lot more silence in the press as the AMO turns down and sea ice extent goes up. It puts a new twist on the phrase silent spring.
Nah they will say that global warming causes the pole to freeze!
Ferd says:
April 26, 2012 at 11:00 am
Is it just me or do others have a problem with the term “Normal” that is used for the 1976 to 2006 average?
===========
I do, the term is inappropriate and unscientific at best. Its a dysfunctional interpretation of the observations and completely out of context yet speaks to the fundamental disconnect in the debate.
>>>kbray in california says: April 26, 2012 at 8:54 am
Regards the Swiss woman ‘living on sunlight’. From e newspaper article:
Quote:
The Zurich newspaper reported Wednesday that the unnamed Swiss woman in her fifties decided to follow the radical fast in 2010 after viewing an Austrian documentary about an Indian faker and charlatan, who claims to have lived this way for 70 years.
There, fixed that for you…….. (and for – hopefully – for all theother liberal nutters that believe everything that nutty religious cults preach).
.