The precision, down to a tenth of a meter, calculated by the University of Grenada in their press release below is simply stunning. I wonder what the error bars are on 2.7 meters over seven years of the study? And, how does one filter out seasonal weather effects over such a short time span? Inquiring minds want to know.
Here’s the main points:
- Vascular plants have moved 2.7 m upwards, which might lead to the extinction of high-mountain species.
- While species diversity in summits of temperate-boreal regions has increased, it has declined in Mediterranean regions.
- Such are the results obtained from a study published in Science, where University of Granada researchers participated.
Researchers at the University of Granada Department of Botanic have participated in an international study that has confirmed that global warming is causing plants to migrate to higher altitudes. The study –recently published in Science– analyzed species diversity shifts in 66 summits of 17 European ranges between 2001 and 2008.
In the Iberian Peninsula, two target regions were selected in the Pyrenees (Ordesa) and Sierra Nevada (Granada). Researchers found that the species under study had migrated an average of 2.7m upwards. “This finding confirms the hypothesis that a rise in temperatures drives Alpine flora to migrate upwards. As a result, rival species are threatened by competitors, which are migrating to higher altitudes. These changes pose a threat to high-mountain ecosystems in the long and medium term” the authors state.
Boreal-Temperate and Mediterranean Summits
The study also reveals an average increase of 8% in the number of species growing in summits of European mountains. However, such increase is not general, as of the 66 peaks in boreal and temperate areas, the majority revealed an increase in species diversity, while 8 out of the 14 summits in the Mediterranean area revealed a decline in the number of species represented.
Furthermore, the study revealed that species diversity has changed more significantly at low elevation sites –at the upper limit of the forest or an equivalent altitude– in the Mediterranean region than in other regions.
In Mediterranean mountains (Sierra Nevada, Corsica, Central Apennines and Crete), the rise in temperatures is causing a decline in annual average rainfall, which results in longer summer droughts. Consequently, temperature rise and droughts pose a threat to unique endemic species.
The mountains that present the most significant shifts in species diversity are Mediterranean mountains –located in Southern Europe–, where climate is different to that of the rest of Europe. In general, moist-soil species are more vulnerable to climate change, though high-mountain endemic species are also affected.”For example, in Sierra Nevada, the observation plots revealed a decrease in the number of emblematic species such as Androsacevitalianasubsp. Nevadensis and Plantagonivalisy Artemisia granatensis”, the University of Granada professor, Joaquín Molero Mesa, explains.
Another Sampling Site
Sierra Nevada has very special characteristics, as it is the only mountain range in the Iberian Peninsula that has Mediterranean climate from top to the hill foot. Consequently, the research group coordinated by professor Molero Mesa –with the special collaboration of Mª Rosa Fernández Calzado– placed another sampling site (four summits located at an elevation above 2500m high) in 2005. The purpose was to increase the sample size and obtain more reliable results. In two years, a comparative study of the results obtained in the first and second study will be conducted.
Thus, Sierra Nevada is the only mountain range with two target regions under observation. The research group is coordinated with the Observatorio de Cambio Global de Sierra Nevada, and has established –in collaboration with a research group from Morocco– another target region in the high Western Atlas, where observation plots and thermometers will be installed next summer. The purpose of this action is to better understand climate and species variations in the most vulnerable environment: the Mediterranean region.
This study is part of the Project GLORIA (The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments) initiated in Europe in 2000 and which has spread worldwide.
Recent Plant Diversity Changes on Europe’s Mountain Peaks. Science. DOI: 10.1126/science.1219033
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I often wonder if the act of studying these plants doesn’t account for some of the changes, such as tracking seeds around in the mud on your shoes, etc.
The plant in the photo with the press release, Androsace vitaliana turns out it is easy to grow in your garden. So it follows that I’m not too worried about this news.
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Okay, someone will do it, might as well be me… “Are you suggesting that coconuts migrate?”
“…Plants of this genus are sometimes known as rock jasmines or fairy candelabras and are widely cultivated by horticulturists for their dense cushions covered in white or pink flowers. There are about 110 species…”
And of the 110 species of Androsace, I guess it was only the Androsace vitaliana that migrated.
Also, this wasn’t the first time they studied the migration of Androsace vitaliana – apparently, they’ve been on the move for some time:
Mol Phylogenet Evol. 2009 Nov;53(2):580-91. Epub 2009 Jul 19.
Bayesian hypothesis testing supports long-distance Pleistocene migrations in a European high mountain plant (Androsace vitaliana, Primulaceae).
Yes, Pleistocene migrations. The Pleistocene has been dated from 2.6588 million (±5,000) to 12,000 years before present. These plants do have a post-glacial history.
And yet 2.7m in seven years is considered a large journey for them.
Any group can cherry-pick local data, but for the big picture:
Global warming has been more arctic warming and upper northern latitude warming than truly much global (as one may see in graphs at climate4you.com for instance). Accordingly, it actually mainly beneficially warms places which were unfavorably cold for plant life beforehand. The same occurred during prior earlier warm periods like the Holocene Climate Optimum, warmer than now, where fossil evidence shows tens of percent more vegetation biomass than now in high northern latitudes (examples in studies listed at co2science.org and googleable), a major net increase to vegetation … which the polar bears survived fine.
Add to that the major beneficial effect of CO2 increase on plant growth and water usage efficiency (less stomatal conductance and accompanying transpirational water losses needed for a given amount of CO2 intake if CO2 concentration gets closer to what it was when ancestors of our plants originally evolved). Overall precipitation actually increases, from the surface of the oceans warming slightly, causing more water to evaporate from them and fall back down to become fresh water in circulation.
Of course, in scenarios like if a second Maunder Minimum occurs and reaches substantial effect in a decade or so, for substantial cooling, global warming in general could not apply. But global warming was of overall net benefit to plants when it lasted.
nuclearcannoli says:
April 25, 2012 at 9:35 am
“These studies remind of the parallels between econometrics and these dolts.”
Gotta defend econometry here. One of its applications is the search for possible causations and the exclusion of improbable ones. Google Granger causality. Very interesting.
I’m sure they did not use a ruler but most likely a barometer or a GPS. It is quite certain they can’t have a 0.1m precision on their measurements. This most have been done by a first year undergrad that just wrote down all the numbers on the instrument’s screen and did not know anything about error calculations.
EternalOptimist says:
April 25, 2012 at 9:15 am
Hilarious!
Has anyone captured one of these migrating plants on video? I won’t beleive it till they do!
Regardless of what you write, if it is climate-related, you get it published.
Are there just too many “science” magazines and not enough science?
This is a very serious problem and well worth the expenditure of billions of dollars to prevent it getting any worse!
You really couldn’t make this stuff up!
Global Warming has driven Europe’s Mountain Plants to Migrate 2.7 m Upwards in 7 Years
It was not clear to me if this was the vertical height or the distance along the slope of the mountain.
However they were very specific about the cause “Global Warming” and the time “7 years”. There is one problem with this. Over the last 7 years, the globe has cooled.
See
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2005/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2005/trend
(slope = -0.0113452 per year)
Mitigation: move the existing species being invaded up! Probably seeds from the plants below have been moved up on the boots of invading ecologists.
So they know for sure that before this the plants have not been there before?
I’m cheering for the edelweiss.
I wonder if those are just very new mutations of plants since they could never have survived the MWP.
@ur momisugly Dirk,
Already spent nearly 4 years studying the subject. To be blunt, econometry is BS because you can’t mathametize human choices and actions, nor can you assign objective extensive measures to a system based on subjective intesive valuations, and where there are no constant relationships between the factors. WRT inflation measures as an example, there is no non arbitrary answer to questions: what goods and services do you include in the basket?; what increments of each?; what weight do you assign to each?; how do you account for changes in quality over time?; how do you account for changes in value over time? Say you include a TV, a TV now vs a TV in 1950 are two different animals, and competing in two different markets with different options open to consumers. Families in the 50s likely had one box if any, whereas now people generally have two or more. The ‘metric’ itself is basically meaningless. Between econometrics and astrology, I’ll take astrology. At least the stars and planets move in predictable patterns governed by contant, objectively quantifiable laws. I’ve no doubt Michael Mann is big fan of econometrics though.
Is 2.7m statistically significant?
OT. Wind power a big loser for German company, Siemens.
http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/news_business/2012-04-25/Siemens-Wind-Project-Generates-Losses.html#video_section
The old surveyor in me wonders what sort of instruments they used to gather their elevation data. I would presume it was some sort of GPS system and their are indeed many such instruments available that can deliver tenth of a meter resolution. However most of those would be problematic both in terms of expense (they tend to be quite spendy) and methods ( though several orders of magnitude less cumbersome than old style instruments they wouldn’t be a lot of fun on a day spent wandering over mountain sides trying to identify plant species). There are handheld devices built for GIS applications which would probably be useful, but even the best of those are barely good for sub meter resolution and then only if you are able to tie in to base reference stations to provide differential corrections and BTW they’ll still set you back $3K- $5K a piece.
Given the level of sophistication displayed in the PR I have my doubts but I’ll have to wait and see. I’m not too hopeful because a continuing aspect of all of this flood of PR “science” is a blissful ignorance of even the basic principles of Metrology
The increased partial pressure of CO2 couldn’t be relevant here, could it? My understanding of the “krummholz” and tree line was at least partially based on CO2 partial pressure. Certainly doubling of O2 partial pressure would make summiting Everest a *tad* easier…
For example http://naca.larc.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20120000642&qs=N%3D4294966526%2B4294956360
” Observed apical and radial growth increment increases were correlated with CO2 concentration (r = 0.83-0.87), summer temperatures (r = 0.55-0.64), and “cold period” (i.e. September-May) air temperatures (r = 0.36-0.37). ”
r ~ .85 for the winning correlation!
Upwards ? Do they mean northwards ?
This article originally appeared in “The Onion”, right?
DirkH says:
April 25, 2012 at 9:39 am
Actually, it sounds like positions will be opening up in coal mining in Germany and Poland in the very near future. Perhaps they could study the behavioral difference in canaries for each meter of depth they go in the mine.
The more I look at it the more I conclude the field of climate science is just rife with budget-saving opportunities.
When discussion the ‘elevation’ of terrain and plants thereupon,
please eschew calling it ‘altitude’, which is for things in the air such as clouds.
The press release tells you nothing about their methods. Guess we’ll have to wait for the full paper to be published…
Meanwhile…
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
The 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Extent is now kissing the “long term” 1979 – 2000 average. Oh Noes!! Another ice age is upon us! (heh)