MSNBC reports that the lack of temperature rise in the last 12 years has convinced environmentalist James Lovelock ( The Gaia Hypothesis) that the climate alarmism wasn’t warranted.
From his Wikipedia entry: Writing in the British newspaper The Independent in January 2006, Lovelock argues that, as a result of global warming, “billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable” by the end of the 21st century.
He has been quoted in The Guardian that 80% of humans will perish by 2100 AD, and this climate change will last 100,000 years. According to James Lovelock, by 2040, the world population of more than six billion will have been culled by floods, drought and famine. Indeed “[t]he people of Southern Europe, as well as South-East Asia, will be fighting their way into countries such as Canada, Australia and Britain”.
What he has said to MSNBC is a major climb down. MSNBC reports in this story:
James Lovelock, the maverick scientist who became a guru to the environmental movement with his “Gaia” theory of the Earth as a single organism, has admitted to being “alarmist” about climate change and says other environmental commentators, such as Al Gore, were too.
Lovelock, 92, is writing a new book in which he will say climate change is still happening, but not as quickly as he once feared.
He previously painted some of the direst visions of the effects of climate change. In 2006, in an article in the U.K.’s Independent newspaper, he wrote that “before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.”
However, the professor admitted in a telephone interview with msnbc.com that he now thinks he had been “extrapolating too far”…
…
“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.
…
“The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that.”
This won’t sit well with many. McKibben has a whole movement based on alarm for example. Watch the true believers now trash him in the “doddering old man” style we’ve seen before.
hat tip to Steve Milloy at junkscience.com
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lenbilen says:
April 23, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Thanks for your comments and explanation of Daisy World. Lovelock has been thinking about the relationship between living organisms and atmospheres for a long time. His early work was with NASA and exploration of the possibility of life on Mars. He realized that the atmosphere on Mars was essentially in thermodynamic equilibrium, whereas the Earth’s atmosphere is far from equilibrium. In other words, life and geological processes have substantially altered the composition of our atmosphere. Consequently, life on Mars at this time was either non-existent or not abundant enough to change the properties of its atmosphere — a result borne out by the Viking explorers and recent robotic missions. One tantalizing observation has been the seasonal increase in methane concentrations, though there is some controversy as to whether these ground based observations are real. With the current planned missions we should know in a few years.
His proposal for a homeostatic/regulated environment, the Gaia Hypothesis, is overstated and was roundly criticized by many, especially outside of the environmental scientific community. He has always struck me as a free thinking maverick with a penchant for making bold statements and delighting in the subsequent to and fro. One of the reasons that environmental scientists at the time were sympathetic to his views was the prevailing view of ecosystem procession leading to a final equilibrium state. Times have changed and forward thinking environmental scientist view ecosystems as more dynamic, in which communities are not static and some members of the communities significantly alter their environment. Nature is always more interesting than you can imagine.
I also see in the Gaia Hypothesis some parallels to the Anthropic Principle in cosmology which has strong to weak forms. The very strong Gaia Hypothesis is that the Earth is a living organism of radical environmental fame. The strong Gaia Hypothesis is that Earth’s biosphere is like a living organism with homeostatic feedbacks that maintain a fairly constant environment. The weak Gaia Hypothesis is that living organisms constantly change the biosphere and subsequently adapt through evolution to live in the environment that they create. Thus, it appears to be “in balance” even though it is constantly changing.
Icarus62: “Also, greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever.” If you are looking at the Keeling Curve of the rise in concentration, you may be mixing up rate of increase and concentration. Interestingly, with 2011 likely being the year with the highest rate of CO2 production from fossil fuels (2010 was the previous high), the rate of increase was 1.88 ppmv/yr for 2011, last I checked. This is essentially the rate of CO2 increase that Hansen et al proposed for Scenario B (holding emissions at 1988 levels). Yet, global emissions have increased from 6.0 to 9.1 GtC/yr. What gives?
rgbatduke @3:32 – You just don’t get it. The damage being done to humanity by the CAGW crowd rivals that of Hitler, Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot. The fact that these CAGW advocates are for the most part highly educated only compounds their culpability.
deliciouslygrey says:
April 23, 2012 at 4:26 pm
“Interestingly, with 2011 likely being the year with the highest rate of CO2 production from fossil fuels (2010 was the previous high), the rate of increase was 1.88 ppmv/yr for 2011, last I checked. This is essentially the rate of CO2 increase that Hansen et al proposed for Scenario B (holding emissions at 1988 levels). Yet, global emissions have increased from 6.0 to 9.1 GtC/yr. What gives?”
Derivative of CO2 and temperature overlayed and scaled to match:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/derivative/scale:5/offset:-0.8/from:1980/plot/uah
CO2 increase/decrease speed depends strongly on global temperature. Ocean outgassing/adsorption.
“”””” bladeshearer says:
April 23, 2012 at 10:03 am
If he wasn’t credible in 2006, what makes him credible now? “””””
Doesn’t matter; because others are credible.
DirkH,
True dat. I have been following that for a few years. I have a Mathematica notebook that I update monthly with the release of the temperature/CO2 data. Doing a crude linear fit of lower troposphere temperature for each region, the best fit for a 4 month smoothing of both temperature and CO2 yearly increase with a 0.5 yr offset is for the tropical temperature (R^2 ~0.53). I haven’t removed the Pinatubo years yet, which significantly reduced the CO2 rate of increase when compared to temperature. Global temp gives a slightly poorer fit (R^2 ~0.44). The really weird thing is that doing a Fourier analysis on the residuals of the tropical model gives a significant 2 yr peak. Caveat emptor: that analysis is just for fun. Who knows what it means.
My question was directed at Icarus62. My interest is more on the biological side, but the carbon cycle is so poorly understood, it is difficult for me to wrap my brain around this sort of data.
rbg: Hear! Hear!
Gaia created her children to release the locked up carbon, thus avoiding being chilly.
The human body contains many microorganisms without which we would not survive. Many of our organs evolved from simpler examples in less complex organisms.
IMHO the GAIA theory is merely a mental extension of that knowledge onto the surface of the earth.
Over the eons living things have created the atmosphere we enjoy today and shaped geology tremendously. Microscopic life has had far greater impact that any large animal species. These changes occurred over vast timescales, and other living things far outweigh humans in terms of their biomass and their physical impact on the biosphere.
There is likely no apparent “will” or collaborative organization of the whole living things, other than the will to survive. So called “invasive species” come and go in an particular location, and the result is a change in the biosphere to which nearby flora and fauna must adapt, compete or flee.
Perhaps GAIA is misinterpreted as a belief in some sort of organized social collaboration among all living things. I don’t think that is Lovelock’s theory, but one which arose from socialists who exploited his theory in order to justify socialism as something natural. Socialism is anything but natural, as it promotes the entirely unnatural practice of penalizing the strong and exessively favoing the weak. In nature the strong thrive and the weak perish in order to preserve the integrity and continued evolution of the whole of life.
Perhaps GAIA was hijacked for political gain in a similar way that the movements in protest over vietnam, racism and a really incredible music renaissance were hijacked in the ’60’s into the great society and the “progressive” movement of today.
“”””” David J says:
April 23, 2012 at 12:46 pm
“80% of humans will perish by 2100 AD”
I would say that’s an underestimate. Most humans don’t live to be 88. “””””
I don’t know about the rest of the world, but about half of the humans that have ever lived in North America are still alive. Maybe 20% of all humans are still alive.
Alright that’s it. A one time prediction of projected advance of global warming proves the prophet deserves “stoning”. I have no problem with the present lull in temperatures as clearly according to trends of over thirty years – this is common. Anyone who claims to know is a liar. Strong words but the reality that much of the air heat was driven into oceans during the La Nina. It’s now gone negative – meaning we into the El Nino when UAH data will rise again to yet a higher threshold. We will see an upswing of temperatures (air) over the next 5 years that will break all records. The patterns are too strong globally to ignore. To say it’s not based on warmer thresholds is fantasy. To not see the record March temperatures over the US. To not know of strange droughts hitting the UK. To not recognise when droughts break – it floods in records broken. To not see the continued weakening of the ice thickness in the Arctic as it self repairs in Winter. To turn a blind eye to warming patterns biting in the Western Antarctica. To not see snow and flooding downpours as the hydrological patterns prove churning of extra energy in the climate has increased. To not experience one of the mildest winters in Australia. To turn a blind eye to global trends in the 90% of glacier melts that are significant. To use and depend on singular air temps at certain altitudes whilst ignoring variability of the atmospheric column and sea surface sequestering. To ignore increased water vapour activity. Not warming signs? Look at convoluted graphs. Trust UAH temps that were locked in a cooling bias in 2005 that our pair of “egos” were not wanting to admit – “we were wrong”. To use tortured analysis to prove the non-warming models fit a paradigmatic self centred existence. To look at the world and see you in it maintaining lifestyle that is dying a slow death. To not do anything. And to think that the inflated money will eventually balance and make us all happy again.
I know where we are headed. If ever a time comes to each and everyone, when an individual right begins the long spiral to a non-sustainable existence – the world will change. There is no evidence whatsoever that any political movement has an answer. To ignore that the years of plenty will go into years of chaotic change and deficit over the next fifty years is not a friend anyone welcomes. I indeed wish it would all go away.
As I climb into the eagles nest and remove my blinders I begin to see the far off horizon. And we know. We sense it. We smell it in the air. It is that sudden glimpse on the distant horizon that tells me not to rest my head too easy. To think and begin again. To have our beliefs broken. To plan and be aware. To break the very self centred ideals as to why I want it a certain way – a future without pain created in the mind. The reality of life and all it brings with it remains. Pain and pleasure. Sweet and sour. Things I believe and things I do not want to believe.
rgbatduke,
Generally you’ll find me polite at willing to extend common courtesy without the expectation of its reciprocity. In the case of a few people, they fall into the category of social monster.
I have encountered none of those people in this forum. Lovelock, however, is one of those monsters and it is important for the monsters to be identified as such.
Lovelock is not a polite old man who who has an opinion of worth and will engage in reasonable debate in a scientific field. He is an irrational activist, spewing his leftist bile and poisoning science, education and scientific discourse in the process, AND.. AND all the while demanding silence in the name of civility from his opponents.
Yes he wants civility now that it suits him. To shut us up.
Where was Lovelock 10 years ago when Al Gore was running rough-shod over reason?
I understand your desire for quiet kindness and the revulsion of hypocrisy. I do not believe that strong words are inappropriate at times. I do not call for his death but I do call for his excoriation and ridicule. He has earned it. Frankly, the skeptics are not well served by his recent opinion. I prefer that he shut his asinine mouth.
He seeks accommodation to gather credibility so he can slap us later. I deny him that.
He is a thoughtless crazy jerk and he gets no respect from me.
With respect to your opinion… and regards to you RGB.
Yes Connolley, we are well aware of Tamino’s statistical prowess. ROFL
http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/26/tamino-and-the-magic-flute/
http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/17/bilge-in-taminos-canoe/
In fact, he’s so good, he still thinks the hockey stick is valid science.
rossbrisbane says:
April 23, 2012 at 5:31 pm
“Alright that’s it. A one time prediction of projected advance of global warming proves the prophet deserves “stoning”.”
Heh. He was your prophet. For us he was always a crackpot and a rent-seeker.
And what does an inflated money supply have to do with temperatures? Well, maybe those billions or trillions squandered on AGW modeling and birdwackers helped.
Better get back on your meds.
This is VERY good. We need to hear these big names and once big voices say this sort of thing. It WILL be noticed and will stand strong for what it means. The voices of doom that were heard most powerfully are admitting they got it wrong.
More voices will join this one. He’s done us all good.
Good for him and his realization of self that maybe he was not as smart as he thought he was. Unfortunatly the idea took off and the money has been spent and the lives have been lost do to the mismanagement induced by his errant idea. The idea has been coopted by many including Obama and Lisa Jackson and with its corruption will never hear his new thoughts. The prolateriat never wins in the grand game of their superiors knowing all.
Re: Brad, April 23, 2012 at 10:53 am
That last article you linked to, “Published on Monday, March 29, 2010 by The Guardian/UK James Lovelock: Humans Are Too Stupid to Prevent Climate Change”.
He said, “Even the best democracies agree that when a major war approaches, democracy must be put on hold for the time being. I have a feeling that climate change may be an issue as severe as a war. It may be necessary to put democracy on hold for a while.”
Now 12 months later he says, “The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that.”
This to me tells me he’s a bleedin’ idiot.
So; 11 years of no change, we’re all gonna die, democracy must be put on hold ect..
12 years no change, oh sorry about that I guess we’re not going to die.
The alarmists, by the way, are not going away, they’re simply abandoning a sinking ship for a new alarm.
http://www.lastcallattheoasis.com/
^^^ Made by the same people who made An Inconvenient Truth.
he has said what every credible climate scientist should be saying- that perhaps the level of certainty can no longer be justified. But that is probably too much to ask
Otter says:
You’re right–The Con isn’t worth reading and I don’t click on his links anymore.
He definitely IS boring.
He’s not brought one point of merit to the discussion and I’m beginning to believe his crowd is living in a morass of mediocrity they try to hype way out of proportion. *yawn*
It tells me his publicist recommended a change in tactics to increase sales of his new book.
Unless he is actively working to tear down the global warming hoax, this is just public relations.
Larry
wmconnolley says:
April 23, 2012 at 3:26 pm
As has been said by a few others quoting tamino is just plain foolish the man has been a drooling worshiper at the altar of james hansen for far too long to be considered impartial or even truthful.
I’m waiting for Lovelock to admit he was smoking too much kumbaya when he invented the Gaia nonscience.
Lovelock and his Gaia and other theories were BS in the first place, and he and they still are BS. But, good, if those who believe in him now believe a bit more in skepticism about climate catastrophe.
He needs to answer the question “if you got it so wrong, why should anyone pay heed to what you say now?”.
The scientist got the better of the man.
Be interesting to see if the environmentalists turn on him like they have on every other CCC apostate. Maybe Al Bore & his academic hit-man Justin Lancaster will try to paint him as a senile old coot, like they tried to do to Roger Revelle.