MSNBC reports that the lack of temperature rise in the last 12 years has convinced environmentalist James Lovelock ( The Gaia Hypothesis) that the climate alarmism wasn’t warranted.
From his Wikipedia entry: Writing in the British newspaper The Independent in January 2006, Lovelock argues that, as a result of global warming, “billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable” by the end of the 21st century.
He has been quoted in The Guardian that 80% of humans will perish by 2100 AD, and this climate change will last 100,000 years. According to James Lovelock, by 2040, the world population of more than six billion will have been culled by floods, drought and famine. Indeed “[t]he people of Southern Europe, as well as South-East Asia, will be fighting their way into countries such as Canada, Australia and Britain”.
What he has said to MSNBC is a major climb down. MSNBC reports in this story:
James Lovelock, the maverick scientist who became a guru to the environmental movement with his “Gaia” theory of the Earth as a single organism, has admitted to being “alarmist” about climate change and says other environmental commentators, such as Al Gore, were too.
Lovelock, 92, is writing a new book in which he will say climate change is still happening, but not as quickly as he once feared.
He previously painted some of the direst visions of the effects of climate change. In 2006, in an article in the U.K.’s Independent newspaper, he wrote that “before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.”
However, the professor admitted in a telephone interview with msnbc.com that he now thinks he had been “extrapolating too far”…
…
“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.
…
“The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that.”
This won’t sit well with many. McKibben has a whole movement based on alarm for example. Watch the true believers now trash him in the “doddering old man” style we’ve seen before.
hat tip to Steve Milloy at junkscience.com
“However, the professor admitted in a telephone interview with msnbc.com that he now thinks he had been “extrapolating too far”…”
Well there’s a good bit of the problem right there. Mindless extrapolation.
Eventually they will all have to admit the truth. Some will take longer than others to confess their sins, and you can bet there will be an abundance of weasel words, but it’s going to happen. Hubris, get thee gone.
How on earth could any serious scientist have made the sorts of climate predictions this fellow made? And Gaia? Pulease.
I suspect it was merely for publishing profits. Extremely irresponsible given the numbers of people who could not see the rant for what it was.
The latest mea culpa is probably to keep the money flowing to his estate. I don’t suspect a guilty conscience.
@David April 23, at 10:09 am
Discovery Channel’s “Frozen Planet” episode “On Thin Ice” last night could only be described as an alarmist “We’re Melting!! Melting!!” The NYTimes chief complaint is that the show doesn’t emphasize why.
I have to admit, nothing actually said last night was a lie. A selective telling of the facts, oh that it was! Seasoned with “if trends continue…” to raise anyone’s BP. That the ebbing of ice cover might be a cyclical ebb and flow? – Not even a hint. Another “connect the dots” using only some of the dots.
Monty says:
April 23, 2012 at 11:12 am
Hmmmn.
So “12 years is way too short to identify a climate trend”.
Well, is a mere 25 years enough to identify a climate trend?
Let’s see:
1888-1916. CO2 assumed constant, temperature fell. 28 years.
But this is not a climate trend.
1916 – 1938-1940. CO2 near constant, temperature rose. 24 years.
But this is not a climate trend.
1940 – 1973. CO2 rose, temperatures fell. 33 years.
But this is not a climate trend.
1973 – 1998. CO2 rose, temperature rose. WOW!! A climate trend.
1996 – 2012 CO2 rose, temperature was steady. 16 years.
But this is not a climate trend.
So, in the entire 4.5 billion history of the planet, only the one single 25 year period when both CO2 and temperatures rose at the same time creates a climate trend.
You guys know what the movement leaders will say. He’s 92. He must have dementia. The same thing they said about Harold Lewis. When the apostate’s younger, they question the miscreant’s sanity, as with Judith Curry. Still, it’s a manifestly good thing, and I give the man credit.
I’d just like to say that I want nothing to do with the old crazy nutter who suggested we’d “put democracy on hold for a while” due to climate change… We don’t need to throw him under the bus, he was never on our bus. He’s a sick old man.
I believe that the lack of volcanoes over the last 20 years or so has caused real problems for alarmists.
They felt they could safely predict warming, thinking they had a get-out if warming didn’t occur because they could point to an eruption somewhere. That hasn’t happened so people like Lovelock are forced to back-track.
At least he has been honest in back-tracking. However I believe he was deliberately overstating his confidence before.
The whole irony about all this is that negative feedback is integral to Lovelock’s Gaia hypothesis, and that would put a dampener on models of accelerating greenhouse gas warming. Of course negative feedback is pivotal to Lindzen’s infrared iris hypothesis, Lindzen’s work fits in nicely with Lovelock’s Gaia, like a hand in a snug glove. So Lovelock had to go against the grain of his own work (to a degree) in order to hysterically sell AGW, and man did he sink into absolute hysteria. He let a popular delusion and so-called progressive politics get the better of his otherwise solid scientific mind and knowledge. It takes a big man to admit he messed up over something that is sooo big, so he deserves some credit. Of course he has hardly gone far enough, in correcting for his prior hysterics, yet it’s still good news..
The warmista press release: ” A study is in the works, proof that AGW is worse than we thought. Global warming causes severe senility Alas, a victim within our own ranks.”
His claims were not only alarmist, but downright plonkers, so I find it hard to trust that man’s judging at all. You would not want to get, Mussolini on your bandwagon, just because he said his claims about the Jews were exaggerated. If you make claims like Lovelace, you are discredited.
Monty says:
April 23, 2012 at 11:12 am
Well, Dr. Lovelock isn’t a climate scientist and I (and most other climate scientists I guess) didn’t really take much notice of his views when they were rather alarmist.
XXXXXXXxx
You do understand how debate works, don’t you?
Until you provide evidence for your claim of being a “climate scientist”….Well…you ain’t!
You sound like you think you cast a white shadow.
“Frozen Planet” was actually hilarious, they spent alot of time talking disinegrating ice shelves in Antarctica without once mention ice extent is INCREASING there.
Icarus62 says:
Unfortunately the evidence from sea level rise, global ocean heat content, ice melt and global temperature series all show that there has been no decline in the rate of anthropogenic global warming, so this story seems to be rather premature.
That’s right! Anthropogenic warming rate still what is was twenty years ago – zero.
Also, greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever, so there is no reason to be complacent..
Exactly! No justification for being complacent, when you should be celebrating! More energy for the world’s population, more food for plants. Stop being complacent, and show the joy.
R. Shearer says:
April 23, 2012 at 11:26 am
“……Most of you probably do not know, but it was his invention of the electron capture detector that allowed the measurement of DDT and other pesticides, etc., at such low levels that it helped spur the environmental movement via Silent Spring, etc.
I always always thought his Gaia was a little fantastic and his position on Global Warming not that surprizing. It gives me great peace and joy to hear of his change of heart.”
Whoa! R.S., sorry but no sympathy/admiration here. Inventing an instrument is great, it’s use for instituting the murderous Silent Spring – not. Originating/furthering the “Gaia” cult as he did not honorable, or sane. Even so, it’s great to see many of these CAGW alarmists backtracking publicly, seemingly out of some level of self-timely remorse. However, I believe he remains a devote elitist mega-Government Progressive. We must take what we can get from these guys.
No doubt the alarmists will dump on him for this, just as Gore did on his Harvard “mentor” Roger Revelle following RR’s late call for CAGW caution – ascribing dementia to RR. Love these CAGW “death bed confessions”..
All credit to him for having the guts to admit it!
I’m not so sure I’d think of Lovelock as an heretic. He’s of greater weight than that. It’s more that he has been the Prophet of this whole scam.
Maybe a better parallel would be after WWII, when Hirohito announced to a stunned Japanese people that the Imperial family maintained great affection for the people, but that the Emperor was “not” divine. In other words, they’d just fought a bloody war for a lie.
He is one self-serving ***. he’s been talking out of both sides of his mouth for a long time.
While I’m glad to see him backtracking, I for one feel little sympathy..
brent
not to be outpublished by michael mann, lovelock announces a shocking something to be revealed in his new book. he knows how to write an alarming book.
and the naive somehow characterize this as honesty? does anybody have a clue what honesty is?
a liar lies until he sees the lies don’t work, then he recants and starts over with new lies.
and the gullible ooze awes over him cuz they are gullible loozers. gullible means you believe anything you hear and think you’re smart enough to not have to know better.
cue the gulping sounds and the der-tee-ders.
keep rewarding the scum of the earth, gullibles. it’s on your dime.
suckers. there’s nothing that can’t be done to you that you won’t praise the perp if he just says ‘oopsie’? hey- bohica. you obviously want a second helping.
‘i’m so sorry i hurt you – i’ll change – i’ll never hurt you again. if you just give me another chance – i’ll tell you everything you want to hear. cuz i’m a liar! a liar!” (henry rollins)
Did’nt he make similar OTT statements way back when global freezing was the big scare? Something about the only survivors would be a few tribes living on the equator?
I cannot but help suspect he was one of those who wanted it to be true. They wanted a crisis. They wanted to alarm people. They wanted to be vindicated in their general concerns – Strong, Schneider, Hansen, Houghton and all those who came after them finding advantage in campaigning such as Gore and Pachauri, uncounted charities and political groups, and even some scientists such as Jones (“.. I would like to see the climate change happen, so the science could be proved right, regardless of the consequences. This isn’t being political, it is being selfish.”). Their arrogance and gross irresponsibility have never been attractive, and surely a great deal of harm has flowed from such as them over this past 20 years or so. That said, he is displaying some humility, and indeed some humanity given the damage that is being done by this ill-founded alarm, in backing away from his earlier views, and that is something. The damage has been done, the political power won, the institutions corrupted – so it is a bit late. But still, it is something. It was by no means largely due to him – his part was minor. And he remains a distinguished man with many achievements worthy of note.
I was just going to give this story as a tip but ya beat me to it. 🙂
At least he is man enough to own up.
And there you have the problem. [my bold]
This will do exactly nothing to change the minds of the faithful – see Icarus62’s silly comment above as a prime example. Despite the fact that we know 100% that temps have not risen to any significant degree for well over a decade, he still maintains that it has and is. I’m not sure if he has actually looked at the rate of sea level rise, but again I’m guessing that if he does look – and see like everyone else that it is not accelerating above the natural rate that it’s been rising since before the industrial age – he STILL won’t accept the facts. But of course that’s faith for you.
Lawrence says:
April 23, 2012 at 12:06 pm
“He let a popular delusion and so-called progressive politics get the better of his otherwise solid scientific mind and knowledge. It takes a big man to admit he messed up over something that is sooo big, so he deserves some credit”
But Lawrence. Lovelock has a 100% proven track record of spouting the biggest Malthusian nonsense his entire life, and he sticks with it. He’s really one of the most accomplished idiots one could imagine. Watch him talk about population. It hurts watching him. Even the Beeb guy has difficulty bearing it. He really IS the British Ehrlich. Has nobody ever asked Lovelock how he explains the fact that an ever growing number of humans seem to have no problems surviving?
Lovelock was one of the Malthusians (with Ehrlich, Holdren and Mead) at the 1975 “Our Endangered Atmosphere” conference where it was decided that CO2 would be the right scapegoat to enact totalitarian policies. He’s evil incarnate, not a “big man”, well maybe in the “Dr. Evil” category.
1975 `Endangered Atmosphere’
Conference: Where the Global
Warming Hoax Was Born
Mead, Schneider, Holdren and Lovelock
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/highlights/Fall_2007.html
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles%202007/GWHoaxBorn.pdf
My experience (as a human being) has been that it is very difficult to admit you are wrong, especially when there is a great emotional investment or question of reputation. But making the admission can be very liberating.
Congratulations James Lovelock. It is never too late. It is better to be mistaken and honest than just mistaken.
Reblogged this on TaJnB | TheAverageJoeNewsBlogg.