Nicola Scafetta sent me this paper yesterday, and I read it with interest, but I have a number of reservations about it, not the least of which is that it is partially based on the work of Landscheidt and the whole barycentric thing which gets certain people into shouting matches. Figure 9 looks to be interesting, but note that it is in generic units, not temperature, so has no predictive value by itself.
While that looks like a good hindcast fit to historical warm/cold periods, compare it to figure 7 to see how it comes out.
Now indeed, that looks like a great fit to the Ljungqvist proxy temperature reconstruction, but the question arises about whether we are simply seeing a coincidental cyclic fit or a real effect. I asked Dr. Leif Svalgaard about his views on this paper and he replied with this:
The real test of all this cannot come from the proxies we have because the time scales are too short, but from comparisons with other stellar systems where the effects are calculated to be millions of times stronger [because the planets are huge and MUCH closer to the star]. No correlations have been found so far.
See slide 19 of my AGU presentation:
http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202011%20SH34B-08.pdf
So, it would seem, that if the gravitational barycentric effect posited were real, it should be easily observable with solar systems of much larger masses. Poppenhager and Schmitt can’t seem to find it.
OTOH, we have what appears to be a good fit by Scafetta in Figure 7. So this leaves us with three possibilities
- The effect manifests itself in some other way not yet observed.
- The effect is coincidental but not causative.
- The effect is real, but unproven yet by observations and predictive value.
I’m leaning more towards #2 at this point but willing to examine the predictive value. As Dr. Svalgaard points out in his AGU presentation, others have tried but the fit eventually broke down. From slide 14
P. D. Jose (ApJ, 70, 1965) noted that the Sun’s motion about the Center of Mass of the solar system [the Barycenter] has a period of 178.7 yr and suggested that the sunspot cycles repeat with a similar period. Many later researchers have published variations of this idea. – Unfortunately a ‘phase catastrophe’ is needed every ~8 solar cycles
Hindcasting can be something you can easily setup to fool yourself with if you are not careful, and I’m a bit concerned over the quality of the peer review for this paper as it contains two instances of Scafetta’s signature overuse of exclamation points, something that a careful reviewer would probably not let pass.
Science done carefully rarely merits an exclamation point. Papers written that way sound as if you are shouting down to the reader.
The true test will be the predictive value, as Scafetta has been doing with his recent essays here at WUWT. I’m willing to see how well this pans out, but I’m skeptical of the method until proven by a skillful predictive forecast. Unfortunately it will be awhile before that happens as solar timescales far exceed human lifespan.
Below I present the abstract, plus a link to the full paper provided by Dr. Scafetta.
=============================================================
Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle
ScienceDirect link
Nicola Scafetta, ACRIM (Active Cavity Radiometer Solar Irradiance Monitor Lab) & Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
Abstract
The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900–1920 and 1960–1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870–1890, 1940–1950 and 1995–2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020–2045, which would be produced by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts that during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed. These results clearly indicate that both solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. The demonstrated geometrical synchronicity between solar and climate data patterns with the proposed solar/planetary harmonic model rebuts a major critique (by Smythe and Eddy, 1977) of the theory of planetary tidal influence on the Sun. Other qualitative discussions are added about the plausibility of a planetary influence on solar activity.
Link to paper: Scafetta_JStides
UPDATE 3/22/2012 – 1:15PM Dr. Scafetta responds in comments:
About the initial comment from Antony above,I believe that there are he might have misunderstood some part of the paper.
1)
I am not arguing from the barycentric point of view, which is false. In the paper I am talking
about tidal dynamics, a quite different approach. My argument
is based on the finding of my figure 2 and 3 that reveal the sunspot record
as made of three cycles (two tidal frequencies, on the side, plus a central
dynamo cycle). Then the model was developed and its hindcast
tests were discissed in the paper, etc.
{from Anthony – Note these references in your paper: Landscheidt, T.,1988.Solar rotation,impulses of the torque in sun’s motion, and
climate change. Climatic Change12,265–295.
Landscheidt, T.,1999.Extrema in sunspot cycle linked toSun’s motion. Solar
Physics 189,415–426.}
2)
There are numerous misconceptions since the beginning such as “Figure 9 looks to be interesting, but note that it is in generic units, not temperature, so has no predictive value by itself.”
It is a hindcast and prediction. There is no need to use specific units, but only dynamics. The units are interpreted correctly in the text of the paper as being approximately W/m^2 and as I say in the caption of the figure “However, the bottom curve approximately reproduces the patterns observed in the proxy solar models depicted in Fig. 5. The latter record may be considered as a realistic, although schematic, representation of solar dynamics.”
{from Anthony – if it isn’t using units of temperature, I fail to see how it can be of predictive value, there is not even any reference to warmer/cooler}
3) About Leif’s comments. It is important to realize that Solar physics is not “settled” physics. People do not even understand why the sun has a 11-year cycle (which is between the 10 and 12 year J/S tidal frequencies, as explained in my paper).
4)
The only argument advanced by Leif against my paper is that the phenomenon is his opinion was not observed in other stars. This is hardly surprising. We do not have accurate nor long records about other stars!
Moreover we need to observe the right thing, for example, even if you have a large planet very close to a star, the observable effect is associated to many things: how eccentric the orbits are and how big the star is, and its composition etc. Stars have a huge inertia to tidal effects and even if you have a planet large and close enough to the star to produce a theoretical 4,000,000 larger tidal effect, it does not means that the response from the star must be linear! Even simple elastic systems may be quite sensitive to small perturbations but become extremely rigid to large and rapid perturbations, etc.
It is evident that any study on planetary influence on a star needs to start from the sun, and then eventually extended to other star systems, but probably we need to wait several decades before having sufficiently long records about other stars!
In the case of the sun I needed at least a 200 year long sunspot record to
detect the three Schwabe cycles, and at least 1000 years of data for
hindcast tests to check the other frequencies. People can do the math for how long we need to wait for the other stars before having long enogh records.
Moreover, I believe that many readers have a typical misconception of physics.
In science a model has a physical basis when it is based on the observations
and the data and it is able to reconstruct, hindcast and/or forecast them.
It is evident to everybody reading my paper with an open mind that under the scientific
method, the model I proposed is “physically based” because I am
describing and reconstructing the dynamical properties of the data and I
showed that the model is able to hindcast millennia long data records.
Nobody even came close to these achievements.
To say otherwise would mean to reject everything in science and physics
because all findings and laws of physics are based on the observations and
the data and are tested on their capability of reconstruct, hindcast and/or
forecast observations, as I did in the paper
Of course, pointing out that I was not solving the problem using for example
plasma physics or quantum mechanics or whatever else. But this is a complex
exercise that needs its own time. As I correctly say in the paper.
“Further research should address the physical mechanisms necessary to
integrate planetary tides and solar dynamo physics for a more physically
based model.”
Joachim Seifert says:
March 22, 2012 at 3:42 pm
———————————
“Das Ende der globalen Erwaermung”….aber mein Deutsch ist sehr schlecht, Herr Seifert. Nur zwei Jahren im eine Wiener Hauptschule….1970-1972.
Terry Oldberg said @ur momisugly March 21, 2012 at 8:33 pm
It’s also about “commentary on puzzling things in wife”. This makes me hopeful that I might eventually discover here the meaning of wife, and whether there is wife after death. While I strive to give my wife meaning, wife remains an utter mystery to me. It saddens me that to think is to risk one’s wife. Thinking has made my wife a misery.
The strongest force in the universe is the wife force.
Anthony added my comment to the main article. Thank you Anthony.
Because I was criticizing also some of his statements, Anthony also added two short responses. I will respond to them here
Anthony wrote
{from Anthony – Note these references in your paper: Landscheidt, T.,1988.Solar rotation,impulses of the torque in sun’s motion, and
climate change. Climatic Change12,265–295.
Landscheidt, T.,1999.Extrema in sunspot cycle linked toSun’s motion. Solar
Physics 189,415–426.}
Anthony, the fact that I reference some studies that use the barycentric model does not means that I am using it in the paper. My paper is quite clear. I am using tidal considerations. You just need to read the title of the paper and the abstract of my paper to realize it.
Anthony wrote:
{from Anthony – if it isn’t using units of temperature, I fail to see how it can be of predictive value, there is not even any reference to warmer/cooler}
Anthony, it is evident from the paper that my figure 9 refers to solar dynamics, not temperature. The graph has a clear predicting values. About the reference to warmer/cooler, there is no need to add them given the fact that the issue is evident from other figures, for rexample figure 7 that you report above: when the curve goes up it means that solar activity in increasing, and the temperature too will increase, when the curve goes down it means that solar activity is decreasing, which means that the temperature too will decrease.
I do not see why these things are so complicated for you.
I believe that for some reason you are upset. And this negative feeling is making you to miss the importance of a very good paper. Read it again with calm, in one week.
Robert Brown: I mostly agree, Willis, although I would be less vehement about the “no scientific value at all” bit. My difficulty (like yours, I think) is that I keep waiting for a hypothesis in there and one never quite appears. Surely at this point we have enough data and computational power to solve the equations of motion for the actual planetary and solar orbits to at least reasonable precision for a rather long time into the past and the future, so this using of this and that and another frequency/period picked out of all of the periods available and ignoring the rest, even though over time they can cumulate to not at all be negligible seems difficult to defend, and it is also unstated why or how the selected periods modulate solar state, let alone how they modulate the Earth’s nominal climate.
I like your idea of solving the equations of motion and using the results.
Dr Scafetta’s modeling is hard to take seriously, but it if the future matches its “predictions” or “projections” closely enough, then some attention will have to be paid to it. However, I do not see how an actual “prediction” has emerged from the modeling. Can a projection of the data onto the resultant curve in figure 7 result in a translation of the “generic units” into, say “degrees C”/”generic unit” to translate the figure into an actual prediction of future temperatures?
poptech: There is nothing balanced about the current presentation as it is biased against Dr. Scafetta’s paper as he was not given the opportunity to defend himself in the main article.
We got the link to the original article, and a series of Dr. Scafetta’s responses to the criticisms. I think your claim of lack of balance is insubstantial.
Leif Svalgaard says:
March 22, 2012 at 3:47 pm
…………………
NASA’s fleet of THEMIS spacecraft discovered a flux rope pumping a 650,000 Amp current into the Arctic.
“The satellites have found evidence for magnetic ropes connecting Earth’s upper atmosphere directly to the Sun,” says Dave Sibeck, project scientist for the mission at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Even more impressive was the substorm’s power. Angelopoulos estimates the total energy of the two-hour event at five hundred thousand billion (5 x 1014) Joules. That’s approximately equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake.”
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/203795main_FluxPower_400.jpg
It doesn’t appear to be so ‘tiny, tiny’ since it affects movement of the Eart’s outer core 3000km below the surface, where the magnetic field is generated.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Tromso.htm
and that is for interactions with the Earth’s magnetosphere, which is only fraction of the Jupiter’s which extends to ~5AU.
You can get off the electro- magneto- chair. There is nothing there.
From the above quote, one could conclude that here is plenty there, but we have an impasse which may not be resolved, so I close my side of the exchange.
Nicola Scafetta: On the contrary the rank correlations that I found using the data in my paper are extremely high more than 99.9%.
I could not find this in the paper. Could you tell us where it is?
KenS – p.s., sorry, got wrapped up in trying to read my handwriting that I forgot to add – if the changes in the tilt of the Earth towards the Sun has such dramatical changes, the tilt of the solar system must perhaps also show some effect in the Sun, though not with the drama which being in orbit around our Sun gives us; the Sun some 99.9% mass of our solar system.
– http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Sun
“The Sun lies close to the inner rim of the Milky Way Galaxy’s Orion Arm, in the Local Fluff or the Gould Belt [The Gould Belt is a partial ring of stars in the Milky Way galaxy, about 3000 light years across, tilted toward the galactic plane by about 16 to 20 degrees], at a hypothesized distance of 7.5–8.5 kpc (25,000–28,000 lightyears) from the Galactic Centre, contained within the Local Bubble, a space of rarefied hot gas, possibly produced by the supernova remnant, Geminga. The distance between the local arm and the next arm out, the Perseus Arm, is about 6,500 light-years. The Sun, and thus the Solar System, is found in what scientists call the galactic habitable zone.
The Apex of the Sun’s Way, or the solar apex [The solar apex is the direction that the Sun travels with respect to the Local Standard of Rest. In lay terms, it’s the “target” within the Milky Way that the Sun appears to be “chasing” as it orbits the galaxy…], is the direction that the Sun travels through space in the Milky Way, relative to other nearby stars. The general direction of the Sun’s galactic motion is towards the star Vega in the constellation of Lyra at an angle of roughly 60 sky degrees to the direction of the Galactic Center [Galactic Center is the rotational center of the Milky Way galaxy. It is located at a distance of 8.33±0.35 kpc from the Earth in the direction of the constellations Sagittarius, Ophiuchus, and Scorpius where the Milky Way appears brightest…].
The Sun’s orbit around the Galaxy is expected to be roughly elliptical with the addition of perturbations due to the galactic spiral arms and non-uniform mass distributions. In addition the Sun oscillates up and down relative to the galactic plane approximately 2.7 times per orbit. It has been argued that the Sun’s passage through the higher density spiral arms often coincides with mass extinctions on Earth, perhaps due to increased impact events. It takes the Solar System about 225–250 million years to complete one orbit of the galaxy (a galactic year) [The galactic year, also known as a cosmic year, is the duration of time required for the Solar System to orbit once around the center of the Milky Way Galaxy. Estimates of the length of one orbit range from 225 to 250 million “terrestrial” years….], so it is thought to have completed 20–25 orbits during the lifetime of the Sun. The orbital speed of the Solar System about the center of the Galaxy is approximately 251 km/s. At this speed, it takes around 1,190 years for the Solar System to travel a distance of 1 light-year, or 7 days to travel 1 AU [An astronomical unit is a unit of length equal to about or approximately the mean Earth–Sun distance….].
The Sun’s motion about the centre of mass of the Solar System is complicated by perturbations from the planets. Every few hundred years this motion switches between prograde and retrograde.”
Nicola Scafetta: The paper is quite clear and theoretically simple.
With that I agree. It is also the latest in a long series of statistical/modeling exercises, so it is not naive and appears ad hoc. It is now one of dozens of models forecasting, projecting or predicting the future.
Willis Eschenbach: Me, I pay attention to the details as well as the large picture. When a man trades in the Moon for the spring tides of Jupiter and Saturn, I tend to notice …
Just so. And that contributes to what I called the “ad hoc” appearance of the paper.
Peter Kovachev, I am well aware that it is Anthony’s right to do what he wishes on his site. It is also my right to state my opinion about something, which is all I did. I find it hard to believe that presenting peer-reviewed papers from a credentialed scientist is what Anthony gets all his criticism from. Though I am sure there are a select few who are very vocal about this to him regarding certain authors. When something is presented here I never believe it to be blindly endorsed by Anthony unless he states so.
Anyone who thinks they can be seen as “moderate” or “rational” in this debate by AGW or AGW Alarm proponents without endorsing their positions is naive.
Regardless, it is a positive development that the topic has been updated with a response from Dr. Scafetta so people can at least read his position and make up their own minds.
Septic Matthew, those responses by Dr. Scafetta were added after I suggested this.
I think all the “experts” need to take a timeout and consider …. that just because you can’t explain it, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exists.
Sven .. what ever his name is … came up with this theory that Galactic Rays influence Clouds. The “experts” said .. no way! Slowly, the experts are being proven wrong. With each confirmation, they challenge it with another “no way”. But what is troubling, is that they hold that their own unproven story is the “truth”.
The AGW crowd said the Sun could have no effect on Climate. All is tied up in TSI. But again, we are finding out that TSI is not the whole story. There is magnetics, solar wind, etc etc etc.
As for Exclamation Marks … how else do you get a person attention .. especially when they’ve already predetermined that they don’t want to hear it? … !!!!!!!!
Poptech: Septic Matthew, those responses by Dr. Scafetta were added after I suggested this.
As far as I can tell, the link to the original article and Dr. Scafetta’s first responses occurred before your first comment. Where am I wrong on this?
Dr. Svalgaard,
“So what storage modes do you have in mind?”
The storage would be something in the state of the admittedly poorly understood solar dynamo responsible for the solar cycle. It may be a coincidence that the period of the dynamo is close to the period of Jupiter’s orbit, but such a coincidence might make a coupling of the oscillators, not just possible, but likely.
Septic Matthew, I was referring to the main article only,
Poptech says: March 22, 2012 at 12:54 pm
UPDATE 3/22/2012 – 1:15PM Dr. Scafetta responds in comments
Nicola Scafetta says:
March 22, 2012 at 12:21
Nicola, I’m not sure that paper helps your case in the slightest. It’s paywalled and I don’t pay for failed cyclomania, but the abstract says (emphasis mine):
Unfortunately …
So he got the timing for cycle 23 right, but was about 20% too high on the number.
That’s not too bad, but it gets much, much worse. He predicted that cycle 24 would peak in 2010-2011 … and since solar cycle 24 still has not peaked and we are in 2012, I’d call his method an abject failure.
In addition, I note that he uses cycles of 5.3, 8.3, 10.5, 12.2, and 47 years … and I’m sure his reasons for his choices are as good as yours.
So if his totally failed prediction is the evidence that is supposed to convince us that you are on the right track … well, color me unconvinced.
w.
Willis Eschenbach says: March 22, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Sorry, Willis. I do not know what to say about the fact that you cannot read papers. Avoid comments on what you cannot verified.
You do not need other papers, just read mine.
Nicola Scafetta says:
March 22, 2012 at 7:39 pm
I’m sorry, Nicola, but that’s totally unresponsive. You have cited a badly failed prediction as support for your claims.
Regarding whether I “need other papers”, you cited the paper, not me. I’m just reading the paper you pointed to.
How about you deal with the issues and stop the ad hominem attacks. How does a failed prediction buttress your case??
w.
Willis Eschenbach:
You’ve erred. That’s not a “prediction” but rather is a “projection.”The two words reference distinct ideas.
Joachim Seifert says:
March 22, 2012 at 3:11 pm
You are welcome to sit around and pat each other on the back if you wish, but science progresses, not by encouragement and telling people how great their new idea is, but by falsification.
You continue to argue against subjecting Nicola’s claims to the normal scientific process, which is a harsh examination of the claims in the most unflattering possible light. If you don’t like that, then you should get out of science entirely.
w.
Willis Eschenbach:
If I were to restate your position regarding Dr. Scafetta’s paper, I’d say that science progresses by subjecting claims to falsification. You appear not to understand that, by and large, claims made in the climatological literature are not subject to falsification. In particular, claims made by Dr. Scaffetta in his paper are not subject to falsification. Furthermore, time after time, wattsupwiththat publishes papers making claims which, like Dr. Scaffeta’s, are not subject to falsification. These claims are not scientific for the lack of falsifiability. Why, then, does the supposedly scientific blog wattsupwiththat continue to publish these papers? If the management of wattsupwiththat realizes that a mea culpa is in order, now is the time to make it. I can’t fight this battle by myself and win unless I have allies.
To: Willis:
Concerning falsification: Its is “one part” of the process ….and the difficult
part starts BEFORE a falsification: To set up a new heuristic system which
explains global warming [necessary in our life times because AGW is
(1) absolutely false + (2) too costly for manking/waste of wealth of nations]
….. Once the heuristic ACHIEVEMENT reaches table, we have to recline and
rejoice……..and then, by and by, we can start with ATTEMPTS of falsification…
……..whereas it is clearly wrong to cry wulf right from the first minute the new
heuristic approach appears on the table….
JS
I accidentally run into this thread. Actually I enjoyed the main articles, but I am rather puzzled about these intense exchanges after the main articles. For example, Scafetta’s paper is already published in a journal, whether it was rejected in another journal is immaterial. So, I am not sure why he is spending this time defending against his critics – it is a better use of time for him to do some other work for the next paper. Let the professional community decide whether this paper is correct or not, and that will happen in time. I am also puzzled that one of the reviewers decided to disclose what other reviewers consensus’ and the final decision was. In my view disclosing the content of his own review in public is problematic, but disclosing the others’ opinion is highly irregular. I saw some calling Leif Svalaard as Dr. Svalgaard, although I could not find any information to suggest that is true from the public information posted in Stanford – maybe he is, and it is not include at Stanford. The other tough critic, Willis Eschenbach, I could find nothing much about him other than in blogs, but I thought I saw somewhere that he criticized some climate academic Judith Curry. I get the impression that most of these discussions are by people who have some knowledge on climate issues, but not with any formal background in the subject. Which is fine in a casual discussion, but when they put so much certainty and weight in their opinion, then it becomes a puzzling issue.
There is a lot of uninformed criticism surrounding Nicloa’s latest paper that unfortunately casts a bad light on the knowledge of this forum. This area of science is not well known and those wishing to criticize should at least arm themselves with some of the basic knowledge. In my experience very very few people bother to consider this.
To clear up some misunderstandings.
1. Nicola’s latest paper has nothing to do with barycentric type theory. The concepts involved in this paper deal with tidal forces from Jupiter & Saturn, which is clearly laid out in his paper. Skimming and not bothering to read the detail often leads one up incorrect paths.
2. The rebuttal concerning exoplanets in other systems is a total red herring. In another paper (Perryman M.A.C. & Schulze-Hartung T) dealing with this topic, several star system barycentric paths are produced showing that so far our own Sun’s path is quite unique. Our Sun shows a regular varying grand minimia cycle of around 172 years which coincides with a solar path change brought about by the outer 4 planets, if we were observing our own Sun from many light years away we would need to observe for possibly 200 years before noticing a change of the grand minima proportion. There is also a smaller modulation or Gliessberg cycle across the solar cycles which moves very slowly and also coincides with the movement of the outer planets, to get this modulation or path change it is necessary to have two main outer planets that are balanced by a further 2 large planets. It would be possible to achieve something similar with a different mix of planets but what is required is a main oscillating force (J/S) disrupted by a periodic change (N/U). The planets also need to be in the outer part of a solar system, so our situation is difficult to reproduce and should not be thought to be common amongst other star systems, a small review and link of the referenced paper can be found at my website.
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/?q=node/202
3. Some are confusing Nicola’s latest paper in this thread with his other paper which is the topic of the WUWT Scafetta climate widget. Nicola has two theories in place covered by different papers. One deals with planetary influence on the 60 year Earth climate cycle (climate widget) which has no input towards solar modulation while the other (this thread) deals with solar changes of longer periods. Any reference to lunar cycles are incorporated in Nicola’s climate widget paper and have nothing to do with his latest paper.
4. Willis is still lost on the importance of the 3rd synodic of Jupiter and Saturn which forms the 60 year cycle in Nicola’s climate widget paper, even after I gave several links which would have cleared his confusion. Once again no one is bothering to read the data. The 3rd synodic or 3rd time Jupiter and Saturn meet in conjunction is close to a 360 degree circuit or cycle. When looking at the JPL data it can easily be seen the 3rd synodic makes a difference, there is a repeating pattern in the Jupiter/Sun distance by several hundred thousand kilometers that cycles every 3rd conjunction. This has been pointed out to Willis but he has either not bothered to read the links provided or purposely ignores the data.
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/?q=node/233
This thread is an example (by some) of the fear to venture down a new path that may produce a new area of science. Planetary science has come along way since Landschei.. passed away and in fact has moved on to totally different paths hardly connected to his science. Take the time to review the new data before passing it off as pseudo-science.
Willis Eschenbach says: March 22, 2012 at 7:46 pm
“How about you deal with the issues and stop the ad hominem attacks. How does a failed prediction buttress your case?”
Because I am not referring to their prediction by itself, Willis.
The prediction used in that paper was based on a specific model the authors proposed. That model was quite naive, and immideately failed. But this does not mean that every word written in that paper is authomatically wrong!
Those authors presented a graph with the power spectra of the sunspot record they had, and found that the sunspot cycles is described by three peaks, as I also found. So, that specific point has been veryfied. And it can be easily verified by repeating the analysis.
Even Leif got the three peaks with his poor FFT, see here
http://www.leif.org/research/FFT-Daily-Sunspot-Number.png
But then you need to think about how to interpret the analysis, which is what the authors of that paper (as well as Leif) did not do properly.
Septic Matthew/Matthew R Marler says:
March 22, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Dr Scafetta’s modeling is hard to take seriously, but it if the future matches its “predictions” or “projections” closely enough, then some attention will have to be paid to it.
It didn’t even hindcast the past correctly, having a large maximum in ~1900, while in fact that was the smallest cycle the past 170 years.
vukcevic says:
March 22, 2012 at 5:02 pm
“That’s approximately equivalent to the energy of a magnitude 5.5 earthquake.”
It doesn’t appear to be so ‘tiny, tiny’ since it affects movement of the Eart’s outer core 3000km below the surface, where the magnetic field is generated.
You are hard at learning. The energy and magnetic field is from the plasma and field that are just like the ordinary solar wind, and is is indeed tiny in the scheme of things. The stuff does not affect movements in the core, the current flows in the atmosphere 100 km up. And does not show that the interaction with the Earth influences the sun.
but we have an impasse which may not be resolved
it is due to your refusal [inability?] to learn. And that there is not much to do about.