Nicola Scafetta sent me this paper yesterday, and I read it with interest, but I have a number of reservations about it, not the least of which is that it is partially based on the work of Landscheidt and the whole barycentric thing which gets certain people into shouting matches. Figure 9 looks to be interesting, but note that it is in generic units, not temperature, so has no predictive value by itself.
While that looks like a good hindcast fit to historical warm/cold periods, compare it to figure 7 to see how it comes out.
Now indeed, that looks like a great fit to the Ljungqvist proxy temperature reconstruction, but the question arises about whether we are simply seeing a coincidental cyclic fit or a real effect. I asked Dr. Leif Svalgaard about his views on this paper and he replied with this:
The real test of all this cannot come from the proxies we have because the time scales are too short, but from comparisons with other stellar systems where the effects are calculated to be millions of times stronger [because the planets are huge and MUCH closer to the star]. No correlations have been found so far.
See slide 19 of my AGU presentation:
http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202011%20SH34B-08.pdf
So, it would seem, that if the gravitational barycentric effect posited were real, it should be easily observable with solar systems of much larger masses. Poppenhager and Schmitt can’t seem to find it.
OTOH, we have what appears to be a good fit by Scafetta in Figure 7. So this leaves us with three possibilities
- The effect manifests itself in some other way not yet observed.
- The effect is coincidental but not causative.
- The effect is real, but unproven yet by observations and predictive value.
I’m leaning more towards #2 at this point but willing to examine the predictive value. As Dr. Svalgaard points out in his AGU presentation, others have tried but the fit eventually broke down. From slide 14
P. D. Jose (ApJ, 70, 1965) noted that the Sun’s motion about the Center of Mass of the solar system [the Barycenter] has a period of 178.7 yr and suggested that the sunspot cycles repeat with a similar period. Many later researchers have published variations of this idea. – Unfortunately a ‘phase catastrophe’ is needed every ~8 solar cycles
Hindcasting can be something you can easily setup to fool yourself with if you are not careful, and I’m a bit concerned over the quality of the peer review for this paper as it contains two instances of Scafetta’s signature overuse of exclamation points, something that a careful reviewer would probably not let pass.
Science done carefully rarely merits an exclamation point. Papers written that way sound as if you are shouting down to the reader.
The true test will be the predictive value, as Scafetta has been doing with his recent essays here at WUWT. I’m willing to see how well this pans out, but I’m skeptical of the method until proven by a skillful predictive forecast. Unfortunately it will be awhile before that happens as solar timescales far exceed human lifespan.
Below I present the abstract, plus a link to the full paper provided by Dr. Scafetta.
=============================================================
Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle
ScienceDirect link
Nicola Scafetta, ACRIM (Active Cavity Radiometer Solar Irradiance Monitor Lab) & Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
Abstract
The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900–1920 and 1960–1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870–1890, 1940–1950 and 1995–2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020–2045, which would be produced by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts that during low solar activity periods, the solar cycle length tends to be longer, as some researchers have claimed. These results clearly indicate that both solar and climate oscillations are linked to planetary motion and, furthermore, their timing can be reasonably hindcast and forecast for decades, centuries and millennia. The demonstrated geometrical synchronicity between solar and climate data patterns with the proposed solar/planetary harmonic model rebuts a major critique (by Smythe and Eddy, 1977) of the theory of planetary tidal influence on the Sun. Other qualitative discussions are added about the plausibility of a planetary influence on solar activity.
Link to paper: Scafetta_JStides
UPDATE 3/22/2012 – 1:15PM Dr. Scafetta responds in comments:
About the initial comment from Antony above,I believe that there are he might have misunderstood some part of the paper.
1)
I am not arguing from the barycentric point of view, which is false. In the paper I am talking
about tidal dynamics, a quite different approach. My argument
is based on the finding of my figure 2 and 3 that reveal the sunspot record
as made of three cycles (two tidal frequencies, on the side, plus a central
dynamo cycle). Then the model was developed and its hindcast
tests were discissed in the paper, etc.
{from Anthony – Note these references in your paper: Landscheidt, T.,1988.Solar rotation,impulses of the torque in sun’s motion, and
climate change. Climatic Change12,265–295.
Landscheidt, T.,1999.Extrema in sunspot cycle linked toSun’s motion. Solar
Physics 189,415–426.}
2)
There are numerous misconceptions since the beginning such as “Figure 9 looks to be interesting, but note that it is in generic units, not temperature, so has no predictive value by itself.”
It is a hindcast and prediction. There is no need to use specific units, but only dynamics. The units are interpreted correctly in the text of the paper as being approximately W/m^2 and as I say in the caption of the figure “However, the bottom curve approximately reproduces the patterns observed in the proxy solar models depicted in Fig. 5. The latter record may be considered as a realistic, although schematic, representation of solar dynamics.”
{from Anthony – if it isn’t using units of temperature, I fail to see how it can be of predictive value, there is not even any reference to warmer/cooler}
3) About Leif’s comments. It is important to realize that Solar physics is not “settled” physics. People do not even understand why the sun has a 11-year cycle (which is between the 10 and 12 year J/S tidal frequencies, as explained in my paper).
4)
The only argument advanced by Leif against my paper is that the phenomenon is his opinion was not observed in other stars. This is hardly surprising. We do not have accurate nor long records about other stars!
Moreover we need to observe the right thing, for example, even if you have a large planet very close to a star, the observable effect is associated to many things: how eccentric the orbits are and how big the star is, and its composition etc. Stars have a huge inertia to tidal effects and even if you have a planet large and close enough to the star to produce a theoretical 4,000,000 larger tidal effect, it does not means that the response from the star must be linear! Even simple elastic systems may be quite sensitive to small perturbations but become extremely rigid to large and rapid perturbations, etc.
It is evident that any study on planetary influence on a star needs to start from the sun, and then eventually extended to other star systems, but probably we need to wait several decades before having sufficiently long records about other stars!
In the case of the sun I needed at least a 200 year long sunspot record to
detect the three Schwabe cycles, and at least 1000 years of data for
hindcast tests to check the other frequencies. People can do the math for how long we need to wait for the other stars before having long enogh records.
Moreover, I believe that many readers have a typical misconception of physics.
In science a model has a physical basis when it is based on the observations
and the data and it is able to reconstruct, hindcast and/or forecast them.
It is evident to everybody reading my paper with an open mind that under the scientific
method, the model I proposed is “physically based” because I am
describing and reconstructing the dynamical properties of the data and I
showed that the model is able to hindcast millennia long data records.
Nobody even came close to these achievements.
To say otherwise would mean to reject everything in science and physics
because all findings and laws of physics are based on the observations and
the data and are tested on their capability of reconstruct, hindcast and/or
forecast observations, as I did in the paper
Of course, pointing out that I was not solving the problem using for example
plasma physics or quantum mechanics or whatever else. But this is a complex
exercise that needs its own time. As I correctly say in the paper.
“Further research should address the physical mechanisms necessary to
integrate planetary tides and solar dynamo physics for a more physically
based model.”
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Ninderthana says:
March 21, 2012 at 6:22 pm
How about David Hathaway and the 11 year Solar meridional flow?
The meridional flow is not ‘natural resonance’ anymore than the Hadley cell in the Earth’s atmosphere is.
About two-thirds of all variable stars appear to be pulsating.
Pulsating variable stars are confined to certain regions of the H-R diagram and are not solar-type stars at all.
I could go on and on….
Dishing up more irrelevant stuff? Your examples show that you have no idea about what goes on in stars. Perhaps stop embarrassing yourself further…
Ninderthana says:
March 21, 2012 at 6:22 pm (Edit)
Ninderthana, I don’t understand what a slow variation in a flow system has to do with natural resonances.
For example, the rivers where I live have a slow natural variation in their flow, with an annual cycle. But describing that variation in flow as a “resonance” is totally incorrect.
The same seems to be true with the slow changes in the suns meridional flow. There is certainly a slow change, but I see nothing to indicate it is a resonance.
Perhaps you could clarify for us what you are calling a “resonance”
w.
Leif:
>Many physical systems have natural resonances e.g. the convective layers of solar-type stars.
Those seem to have a period around 5 minutes, perhaps you could produce links to papers demonstrating convective resonances in sun-like stars of the order of decades or centuries. You are welcome to educate us here.
Well lets see, the Earth-Moon system has one resonance period that is close to the 24 hours, and another close to 28 days, and yet another close to 38 years. Are those long enough?
typo:
…political movement or psychological processes… (last alinea)
u.k.(us) says:
March 21, 2012 at 6:22 pm
You’ll have to define for me what “taken over” means on your planet. You can post comments on this thread. I can post comments. You post them. I post them.
So how is it that I’ve “taken over” in your mind? I mean other than by the strength of my arguments? What is it I’ve done that you object to, that you could not do yourself? I’m not stopping you or anyone else from posting, what do you mean I’ve “taken over” the thread?
w.
Leif is more than capable of typing them in the comment section. By including Leif’s comments and Anthony’s own criticism in the main presentation he is seen as an opponent and it is not a balanced presentation. The reader is immediately biased against the paper.
I would expect that if Leif had a new paper it would not include critical commentary from Dr. Scafetta in the main presentation here.
REPLY: My blog, my decision, butt out and take it elsewhere – Anthony
Willis Eschenbach says:
March 21, 2012 at 6:39 pm
=======================
You drug Anthony’s name into this.
[snip] nobody has any [snip] scruples anymore.
I would be getting up on my soap box (if for no other reason than that people could see me) to continue the drum beat of my pet theory (aka, sacrifices at 8:00 sharp), ‘cept that Leif and Willis would knock the box out from under me. What’s really crazy about that is they would be saying the exact same thing about my caveworman theory. That says a whole lot more about this pet temperature/solar/barycenter connection theory than it does about Leif and Willis.
A few years ago, Ian Wilson published a paper about spin-orbit coupling. It was discussed here (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/06/28/astronomical-society-of-australia-publishes-new-paper-warning-of-solar-quieting-and-global-cooling/). I thought then and still think that his ideas are interesting. Rather than getting hung up on tidal effects, the paper focusses on changes in angular momentum of the planets. Considering the surface of earth is 70% water, if something causes the period of rotation to change, it will have an effect on the flow of ocean currents. I think the idea is brilliant and that merits a closer investigation.
populartechnology says:
March 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Leif is more than capable of typing them in the comment section. By including Leif’s comments and Anthony’s own criticism in the main presentation he is seen as an opponent and it is not a balanced presentation. The reader is immediately biased against the paper.
So you are taking Anthony to task over him presenting an opposing view to get a balanced presentation…
If you don’t like Anthony’s approach, don’t visit his home here.
Robert Leyland says:
March 21, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Well lets see, the Earth-Moon system has one resonance period that is close to the 24 hours, and another close to 28 days, and yet another close to 38 years. Are those long enough?
What has the Moon to do with the natural frequencies of the Sun? And I thought that the lunat libration modes have periods of 2.9, 75, and 81 years, but let that slide for now…
Willis Eschenbach says:
March 21, 2012 at 6:49 pm
===================
Willis,
I like your stories, can’t understand most of your graphs, and really hate your comments towards those less informed than ………..
No I didn’t forget.
Willis Eschenbach and Leif Svalgaard appear to be like the cat and the fox in the Pinocchio’s Adventures. They both try to mislead (first themselves and then others).
The paper is quite clear and theoretically simple. The sunspot cycle is not constant but varies. A power spectrum analysis of the record reveals that the Schwabe cycle is made of three cycles, two of which are very close to two major tidal frequencies produced by the Jupiter/Saturn spring tide (9.93 year) and Jupiter Sidereal tide (11.86 year). The third frequency is almost but not exactly in the middle frequency at 10.87-year.
At this point I interpret the two side frequencies as truly due to the two tidal frequencies and I associate to them the phases of the two tidal frequencies. The third phase is calibrated on the sunspot number sequence because it represents the solar dynamo cycle.
At this point I sum the three harmonics, and the magic occurs. The periods of destructive interference coincide with the grand solar minima. in addition to the Schwabe cycle, cycles with about 61, 115, 130 and 983 years observed in the solar and climate data during the Holocene are easily recovered.
Willis Eschenbach and Leif Svalgaard, do not see it, nor they understand the meaning of what they see, and get lost in their vane thoughts by convincing themselves that they know everything. What arrogance!
Leif, get it. Your prejudices are not shared by everybody. To oppose a scientific theory it is not enough to say: I do not believe in it. You must propose an alternative theory that agrees better with the data. Do you have it or not?
If not, stop with your arrogance. You are getting boring.
Jurgen says:
March 21, 2012 at 6:35 pm
“but then you have to realize if you start looking for numerical coincidences or patterns in phenomena, objects, pieces of literature, images, whatever, you are going to find them. Wherever you want to find them.
It may be a trap, if you don’t realize this creative aspect of the human mind. Many patterns we perceive are but artefacts of the human mind. So there are methods developed to distinguish these from the real patterns out there. ”
Jurgen, an algorithm would also find the patterns. It’s not a trick of the mind. The patterns do objectively exist to quantifiable amounts in the past data, it’s only that you can’t say whether the patterns will also exist in the future, in other words, whether your model has predictive skill.
This is interesting my last two comments never showed up for moderation.
REPLY: yes, see my addition to your comment above – take it elsewhere for awhile – Anthony
Willis Eschenbach and Leif Svalgaard are talking about everything but the content of my paper.
Leif started to talk of other planets in other far stars! What kind of argument is that, Leif!
We do not have good data nor long enough data to simplistically dismiss what we can deduce for the sun. About the sun, we have long and sufficiently accurate records.
Willis and Leif, tell me what is your theory that explain the observed climatic and solar cycles? What is producing the Maunder minimum, the Dalton Minimum, the 60-year, the 115-year the 1000-year cycles, etc? Please, respond.
u.k.(us) says:
March 21, 2012 at 7:30 pm
u.k., I couldn’t figure out what this was in reference to. Turns out you were talking about this:
From your latest post I see that you really hate my comments, but I’m still in mystery about how I’ve “taken over” a thread.
Finally, I speak my mind. If you are looking for someone to go all California on Scafetta and rub his tummy and blow in his ear and worry about hurting his poor feelings when they talk to him, I’m not your man. Like Popeye used to say, “I yam what I yam.” I figure people can handle the unvarnished truth, and that if they can’t stand the heat they should get out of the scientific kitchen.
Yes, sometimes I’m more outraged than I should be about scientific malfeasance and the state of climate science … but then as far as I’m concerned, most of the time I’m far too many people are nowhere near outraged enough about scientific malfeasance and the state of climate science.
And yes, when someone jumps into a thread and starts out by insulting me and attacking me, I bite back. You can go all pacifist at that point if you want, it’s every man’s choice how to react to that kind of nonsense, but I won’t stand for it.
All the best,
w.
Is anyone other than myself interested in the fact that Dr. Scafetta’s conjecture references no statistical population thus lying outside science? isn’t this supposed to be a science blog?
Within the mist of what seems to be several on going pissing contests may
I ask a question?
Is there any effect on any of the mentioned forces as a result of our solar system’s
tilt as it orbits in free fall around the Milky Way Galaxy?
several mentions of the force of lunar tidal effects on the earth being 2.1 compared to the sun 1.0 amount of effect and a couple more stressing the more horizontal movement vectors of fluid unbounded atmospheres. Compared to the parallel bands of global circulating winds for both Jupiter and Saturn, where all of the moons and residual ring system is centered on the equator, the Earths moon swings wildly North and South on the ecliptic plane and more so in reference to the equator. One would think that there would be very strong lunar declinational tidal effects on the Earths atmosphere, observations referenced to the declinational cycle period should make it obvious?
Higher definition global circulation video showing the lunar declinational tides in the atmosphere, three cycles from 10 degrees North of the equator to max North,then back through the cycles to the same point again. Christmas of 2009 through March 8th 2010.
I’m closing comments for awhile – everybody needs to cool off and step back for awhile.
I’m reopening comments now.
Argue the issue/science, not the persons. Otherwise I’ll close this thread permanently if I see a repeat of what went on yesterday. Some comments were not approved due to that sort of thing.
Moderators, snip comments that cross this line.
About the three Schwabe peaks in the power spectrum analysis
The three peaks derive from two alternative direct measures of the power spectrum analysis of the sunspot number record, see figure 3.
Similar peaks were found also by other people, for example.
Kane, R.P.,1999. Prediction of the sun spot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components. Solar Physics 189, 217–224.
see figure 1A in the attached paper where the sunspot record is found to have three peaks at about 10, 11 and 11.6 years, as I say in the paper
I get slightly different results because I use 13 years more data than Kane. One needs to use long records to see well these peaks, because longer the record better is the analysis (if the record is sufficiently accurate). Moreover, it is evident that the sunspot cycle is not constant, so it cannot be described by just one frequency.
What I do next, considering that power spectrum analysis is not an infinitely accurate methodology (as Willies erroneously believes) and it is easy to get some peak shift, I interpret my results (9.99, 10.9 and 11.86) as due to the two J/S tidal frequencies (9.93 and 11.86) which would imply that the middle solar dynamo cycle is 10.87 year for keeping the same three frequency resonance, as explained in the paper. All these corrections are within one month error (+/- 0.08 year), which is the precision of the sunspot number record, which is a monthly record as clearly explained in the paper. So, the corrections are legitimate.
At this point I add the astronomical phases of the planetary tides (this is a very important point to determine the physical nature of the cycles), and use the middle frequency phase as deduced from the sunspot number which is since 1749, well after the Maunder minimum.
Finally, I test the hindcasting capability of the model against much longer solar and climate records covering thousands of years. And the model started to produce complex beats that match almost exactly all grand solar minima (Dalton, Maunder etc), the quasi 1000 year cycle during the Holocene (12,000 years), the 1000-year cycle in the temperature records, seventeen 115 year cycle in the temperature proxies since 1AD, the quasi 60 year modulation of the temperature since 1850 and its upward trend since Dalton minimum. All phases of the beat cycles are directly deduced from the main three Schwabe cycle, so they are not fitting parameters.
Moreover, the model forecast the approaching grand solar minimum that is predicted by a lot of solar scientists (actually I was one of the first, but Leif blocked my publication last year). And my model explains that is will be deep because produced by the combined minima of the 60 and 115 year cycle. Etc…
All these things are clearly written inthe paper. So please read it before criticizing.
About the initial comment from Antony above,I believe that there are he might have misunderstood some part of the paper.
1)
I am not arguing from the barycentric point of view, which is false. In the paper I am talking
about tidal dynamics, a quite different approach. My argument
is based on the finding of my figure 2 and 3 that reveal the sunspot record
as made of three cycles (two tidal frequencies, on the side, plus a central
dynamo cycle). Then the model was developed and its hindcast
tests were discissed in the paper, etc.
2)
There are numerous misconceptions since the beginning such as “Figure 9 looks to be interesting, but note that it is in generic units, not temperature, so has no predictive value by itself.”
It is a hindcast and prediction. There is no need to use specific units, but only dynamics. The units are interpreted correctly in the text of the paper as being approximately W/m^2 and as I say in the caption of the figure “However, the bottom curve approximately reproduces the patterns observed in the proxy solar models depicted in Fig. 5. The latter record may be considered as a realistic, although schematic, representation of solar dynamics.”
3) About Leif’s comments. It is important to realize that Solar physics is not “settled” physics. People do not even understand why the sun has a 11-year cycle (which is between the 10 and 12 year J/S tidal frequencies, as explained in my paper).
4)
The only argument advanced by Leif against my paper is that the phenomenon is his opinion was not observed in other stars. This is hardly surprising. We do not have accurate nor long records about other stars!
Moreover we need to observe the right thing, for example, even if you have a large planet very close to a star, the observable effect is associated to many things: how eccentric the orbits are and how big the star is, and its composition etc. Stars have a huge inertia to tidal effects and even if you have a planet large and close enough to the star to produce a theoretical 4,000,000 larger tidal effect, it does not means that the response from the star must be linear! Even simple elastic systems may be quite sensitive to small perturbations but become extremely rigid to large and rapid perturbations, etc.
It is evident that any study on planetary influence on a star needs to start from the sun, and then eventually extended to other star systems, but probably we need to wait several decades before
having sufficiently long records about other stars!
In the case of the sun I needed at least a 200 year long sunspot record to
detect the three Schwabe cycles, and at least 1000 years of data for
hindcast tests to check the other frequencies. People can do the math for how long we need to wait for the other stars before having long enogh records.
Moreover, I believe that many readers have a typical misconception of physics.
In science a model has a physical basis when it is based on the observations
and the data and it is able to reconstruct, hindcast and/or forecast them.
It is evident to everybody reading my paper with an open mind that under the scientific
method, the model I proposed is “physically based” because I am
describing and reconstructing the dynamical properties of the data and I
showed that the model is able to hindcast millennia long data records.
Nobody even came close to these achievements.
To say otherwise would mean to reject everything in science and physics
because all findings and laws of physics are based on the observations and
the data and are tested on their capability of reconstruct, hindcast and/or
forecast observations, as I did in the paper
Of course, pointing out that I was not solving the problem using for example
plasma physics or quantum mechanics or whatever else. But this is a complex
exercise that needs its own time. As I correctly say in the paper.
“Further research should address the physical mechanisms necessary to
integrate planetary tides and solar dynamo physics for a more physically
based model.”
Nicola Scafetta (March 21, 2012 at 8:17 pm):
In the second to last paragraph, you imply that your model that has the status of a scientific theory. I disagree.
The term “conjecture” references a model that is insusceptible to statistical validation. The term references a model that is susceptible to statistical validation but that has not been statistically validated while the term “scientific theory” references a model that has been statistically validated. As your model is neither statistically validated nor susceptible to statistical validation, the appropriate descriptor for it is “conjecture.”
In its assessment reports, the IPCC obfuscates issues such as this one by attaching confusing semantics to the word “evaluation.” In an IPCC-style “evaluation” one or more model projections to the global average surface air temperature are compared to a global average surface air temperature time series. As the word “evaluation” sounds like the word “validation” one might draw the conclusion that a model has been validated when it has been evaluated but this is far from the case.