Normally, I run this post around the end of the first week of the month, but this month there was a problem. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) botched the March SSN graph with incorrect data and was somewhat reticent to get it updated. Dr. Leif Svalgaard wrote to me on 3/7/12 after I asked him:
Why is there no Feb data on the NOAA graphs even though they show a March 6 update? Very odd. Are they holding out for better data?
He replied:
I have had a long email exchange with Doug Biesecker who is in charge of this. If you look at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt for December 2011, you see that the data there is that for February 2011. Apparently when they tried to enter data for February 2012 [which is 33.1] they lost that and instead dumped Feb. 2011 on December. Don’t ask how this is possible, we all screw up now and then. The bad news is they don’t know when it will be fixed [!!!]. I suggested just fixing it in the file and replot right now. But they want to find out exactly what the problem is. I suggested that if they just fixed manually right now, they would have all the time in the world to figure out what went wrong, but no cigar. As I said to him:
“your problem should not stop you from a temporary fix involving a few minutes of work, for the benefit of a waiting world that would like to think that NOAA produces reliable data”.
After some additional consideration on the part of NOAA, I’m happy to report they finally got it updated. What we see are three months of dropping sunspot numbers when they should be on the rise. While some variability is normal, compare this drop to the previous cycle.
Like the SSN, the 10.7cm flux is also down for the 3rd straight month:
And, the Ap Geomagnetic index, a proxy for the solar dynamo, is still bumping along the bottom portion of the scale where normally it would be approaching higher levels leading up to solar maximum:
Source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
MAVukcevic says:
March 14, 2012 at 4:34 am
Two strong Japan earthquakes ( M 6.9 & 6.1) in the wake of the strongest solar storm for some years
Unrelated nonsense. There are 134 earthquakes on average each year of magnitudes between 6 and 7, That is one every 2.7 days.
Harold Ambler says:
March 14, 2012 at 4:44 am
Abdussamatov says clearly: solar slowdown, cooling on Earth on the way.
Unfortunately for him, he bases his statement on an extrapolation of the ‘slowdown’ of TSI the past minimum: Figure 1 of http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/abduss_nkj_2009.pdf
but the slowdown didn’t happen at all. The apparent decrease was due to uncompensated instrument degradation. There is no observational evidence for any difference between minima:
Slides 31 and 33 of http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2011ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/1g_Schmutz_SORCE_13.9.11.pdf
Curiousgeorge says:
March 14, 2012 at 4:26 am
So, should I plant root crops or grains?
Now, I wonder what William Herschel would be doing if he was alive today, making money again? It will be interesting to see how the food prices pan out over the same cycle period globally, & if there is any detectable potentially relevant trend line, although I know you can find a trend in anything if you look hard enough. If the prices rise as a result of falling yield as well as rising demand, then that should indicate a semi-direct link between solar activity & climate! Or is it me? Certainly could nail the case for GM crops!
MattN says:
March 14, 2012 at 3:39 am
Looks like late ’00, there was also 3 months of decline from the peak of ~170. So, not unprecedented. However, if it follows the previous cycle, we’ve just had the peak. Which would be…interesting…
even last cycle had a “double peak,” although the second peak was weaker than the first. I expect we’ll see another peak before it’s all over.
The solar cycle peak seems to have a brief drop which correlates with magnet
ic polarity reversal. This cycle seems to be at that very point now. The southern solar polar field graph should reverse soon. This will be a very weak cycle, brrr.
Livingston and Penn’s observation that the magnetic field strength of newly produced sunspots is declining indicates that magnetic ropes that rise up through the convection zone to form sunspots is weakening. The magentic ropes require a minimum field strength to avoid being torn apart by the convection forces. Observational evidence indicates the sunspot field strength in the convection zone is close that point now.
Based on current solar observations, past/current geomagnetic field changes, and other observational data/analysis, I would suspect the solar magnetic cycle has been interrupted and the sun will move into a spotless stage this year. If it does, I can provide a hypothesis, complete with a mechanism, as to what will happen next.
Comment:
The fact the magnetic field strength of newly formed sunspots is linearly declining supports the assertion that sunspots are formed from magnetic ropes that are created at the tachocline. The magnetic ropes are released at the tachocline and then rise up through the convection zone to form sunspots.
Leif Svalgaard says: March 14, 2012 at 5:17 am
MAVukcevic Two strong Japan earthquakes ( M 6.9 & 6.1) in the wake of the strongest solar storm for some years
L.S : Unrelated nonsense. There are 134 earthquakes on average each year of magnitudes between 6 and 7, That is one every 2.7 days.
Possibly, possibly. Nobody disputes the average, but they have a habit to strike around strong solar storms; not every week gets 2-3 earthquakes M6+, large proportion gets none.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/gms.htm
At least we agree on otcome of the SC24 max and that your mate Abdussamatov’s hypothesis.
Other one we disagree about is 88 year cycle in the temperature records; it is one among the strongest in both the CET and the Greenland temperature reconstruction.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GISP2spec.htm
William Astley says:
March 14, 2012 at 5:59 am
Livingston and Penn’s observation that the magnetic field strength of newly produced sunspots is declining indicates that magnetic ropes that rise up through the convection zone to form sunspots is weakening
L&P theory is junk science. The data and method is not up to scientific standard. The only outcome of their research is that the speck ratio has increased.
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/?q=node/65
What is the neutron counter at Oulu trying to us. Why has it dropped through the floor this last week or so. Anyone?
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startdate=2012/01/01&starttime=00:00&enddate=2012/03/14&endtime=13:17&resolution=Automatic%20choice&picture=on
Curiousgeorge says:
March 14, 2012 at 4:26 am
So, should I plant root crops or grains?
Popsicles.
With all the attention about the sun lately, a large sphere was recently seen in the sun’s corona attached to the surface. It lasted about a day and disappeared. Probably a hoax or photo problems from NASA. Strange.
I see this reduced solar maximum as being noisy and irregular, and likely
still yet to peak.
We just had about a week and a half with sunspot number around 80-90,
at times in the 90’s, although likely soon decrease somewhat.
Something else I see: The upcoming ~210 year cycle minimum having a
minimum of a maybe temporary ~60-62 year cycle, so as to plunge to
almost-Maunder-like depth of lack of solar activity – but briefly. I see this
upcoming minimum as “short and sweet” (or “short but painful”).
Hmmm, the Solar cycle is still worth watching.
Pete in Cumbria UK says: March 14, 2012 at 6:21 am
What is the neutron counter at Oulu trying to us. Why has it dropped through the floor this last week or so. Anyone?
………….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbush_decrease
http://www.astrophys-space-sci-trans.net/4/59/2008/astra-4-59-2008.pdf
This is getting messy, here are most of the solar cycle predictions since 2006. It looks like the current one is the same trace as Sept 2010 and April 2011.
http://i39.tinypic.com/34rufj9.jpg
Planet cools a little, farming gets more difficult. Congress forces us to burn our food for fuel. I hope there are no significant volcanic eruptions.
My local grocer has about 3 days of inventory on hand. Nationally, our grain reserves have dropped from six months to something around 3 months. We’re one big crop failure away from anarchy that will make the superdome after Katrina look like a summer picnic. Just wait until the masses haven’t eaten for a week.
I’m stocking up on food and ammo. Go ahead and call me crazy. I’m ok with that.
Geoff Sharp says:
March 14, 2012 at 6:21 am
The data and method is not up to scientific standard. The only outcome of their research is that the speck ratio has increased.
The data is produced by the most experienced solar physicist alive. The effect is just the opposite of what you claim: small spots are disappearing, e.g. http://www.leif.org/EOS/aa18034-11-Clette.pdf
“We find that the Sun has shown an important deficit in small spots since the last activity maximum around 2000. While the number of large-scale spots remained largely unaffected, the occurrence rate of the smallest sunspots, and among them the ones with the shortest lifetimes, was more than halved during cycle 23”
MAVukcevic says:
March 14, 2012 at 6:06 am
not every week gets 2-3 earthquakes M6+
there are 2.6 M6+ quakes per week on average.
Donald L. Klipstein (Jr) says:
March 14, 2012 at 6:55 am
We just had about a week and a half with sunspot number around 80-90,
at times in the 90′s, although likely soon decrease somewhat.
You are conflating the NOAA sunspot number and the official SIDC number. The latter is only about 68% of the former [so far for 2012].
The last two weeks of official sunspot numbers:
16 18 43 55 75 83 68 66 71 73 81 81 60 63 (today)
Reblogged this on Solar Power – Help you save Energy.
That was actually a filament channel associated with a solar prominence, seen edge-on. It stood out particularly well amongst the surrounding corona in the wavelength in which those pictures were taken. SOHO captured the coronal mass ejection that occurred when that filament erupted.
http://www.space.com/14894-refueling-ufo-solar-prominence.html
Curiousgeorge says:
March 14, 2012 at 4:26 am
So, should I plant root crops or grains?
_______________________________________________
Alan the Brit answers: @ur momisugly March 14, 2012 at 5:35 am
Now, I wonder what William Herschel would be doing if he was alive today, making money again? It will be interesting to see how the food prices pan out over the same cycle period globally, & if there is any detectable potentially relevant trend line, although I know you can find a trend in anything if you look hard enough. If the prices rise as a result of falling yield as well as rising demand, then that should indicate a semi-direct link between solar activity & climate! Or is it me? Certainly could nail the case for GM crops!
__________________________________________________
Well it is looking like the next big boom is farmland. I wonder if the World Bank and their buddies know something we do not? Farmers are usually considered something smelly that you stepped in by the Super Market Predators of Wall Street.
New research accuses the World Bank Group’s policies of facilitating land grabs in Africa
In Africa
US universities in Africa ‘land grab’: Institutions including Harvard and Vanderbilt reportedly use hedge funds to buy land
Hedge funds buying massive tracts of African farmland
African land grab threatens food security: study
In The USA
Crazy Question “Are We in a Farmland Real Estate Bubble?”
Being Like Soros in Buying Farmland Reaps Annual Gains of 16%
Odd how these technical problems crop up when data defy orthodoxy and give support to CO2-skeptical climate / geophysical hypotheses, e.g. sea ice satellite data, UHA troposphere channel, sea level data delays, and now NOAA choking on reporting this solar nose-dive.
One is reminded of the megalomaniac director Christof in The Truman show and his command to “cut transmission” when Truman escapes from camera surveillence.
Within the placid and contrived Seahaven, the sun always shines (with no variation in its output), everyone is happy and CO2 is the only factor affecting climate, geology and life in general. But there’s a real world outside…
Not that WUWT isn’t a valid source, but is there anywhere else (say NOAA) where they admit their oops? Thanks.
Normally, I run this post around the end of the first week of the month, but this month there was a problem.
As well, since yesterday morning, the January, 2012 anomaly of 0.218 disappeared from the Hadcrut3 data set and woodfortrees.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt
Last few days there was one of the nature’s great experiments with the cosmic ray (neutron) count going down by 12-15%.
Svensmark’s hypothesis proposes significant drop in cloudiness, possibly as much as 7%
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL038429.shtml
I hope Anthony or Dr. Svalgaard may inform us as soon as some data is available. The CERN’s CLOUD experiment has gone silent about their results. One way or the other this Forbush decrease should be far more significant that anything that comes out of CERN.