From the Canadian Department of Redundancy and the Journal of Paleohockey comes this hilarious study via press release that I first thought was a spoof. Sadly it is all too real. This a candidate for the Dr. David Viner Award.*
Children just aren’t going to know what hockey is.
Pond hockey heats up
Outdoor skating threatened by rising temperatures
Montreal, March 5, 2012 — Would Wayne Gretzky have blossomed into the Great One had he not honed his skills on a backyard rink as a kid? It’s a good thing that he grew up before global warming began wreaking havoc with our weather because the days of a game of shinny on that frozen pond are numbered.
The length of Canada’s outdoor skating season has decreased significantly, according to findings just published in Environmental Research Letters by Damon Matthews, professor in Concordia’s Department of Geography, Planning and environment — along with McGill colleagues, professor Lawrence Mysak and former graduate student Nikolay Damyanov. The evidence is already making headlines. Earlier this year, Ottawa’s Rideau Canal Skateway, the world’s longest skating rink, had to shut down due to warmer-than-usual seasonal temperatures.
The proof is in the snowstorms — or lack thereof. Canada has taken more of a hit from global warming compared to other countries. Since 1950, winter temperatures in Canada have increased by more than 2.5°C, which is three times the globally-averaged warming attributed to global warming.
In order to quantify how this temperature rise affects the outdoor rink, the researchers gathered information from outdoor public skating spaces in various Canadian cities. Taking the beginning of the outdoor skating season as the last in a series of three days where the maximum temperature does not go above -5°C, they created a set of weather criteria to determine the length of the outdoor skating season. Subsequently, the researchers counted the number of viable days during which the ice could be maintained to estimate the season’s length at each of the stations.
By comparing their findings with data gathered over 50 years, from 1951 to 2005, by 142 meteorological stations across the country, the researchers discovered that only a few of the weather stations showed a trend towards later start dates of the outdoor skating season. A much larger proportion of stations, however, showed a statistically significant decrease in the length of the skating season over the past half century.
The results paint a grim picture for the future of outdoor skating. The largest decreases in the skating season length were observed in the Prairies and Southwest regions of Canada. By extrapolating their data to predict future patterns, the researchers came up with some ominous news: within a few decades, we could see a complete end to outdoor skating in British Columbia and Southern Alberta.
No Canadian region is safe from that fate. For Matthews, it’s clear that we are all vulnerable to continued winter warming. “It’s hard to imagine a Canada without outdoor hockey,” he says “but I really worry that this will be a casualty of our continuing to ignore the climate problem and to obstruct international efforts to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.”
“The disappearance of outdoor hockey rinks and probably cross-country ski trails is not going to be good for the health of our youth and the leaders of tomorrow, who need all the exercise they can easily get.” said McGill Emeritus Professor, Lawrence Mysak, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.
Related links:
- Cited Study – “Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming”
- Concordia’s Department of Geography, Planning and Environment
- McGill’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
- Environmental Research Letters
For questions to Lawrence Mysak, contact:
Cynthia Lee, Media Relations – McGill University
cynthia.lee@mcgill.ca | T. 514.398.6754 | twitter.com/#!/McGilluMedia
To get in touch with Damon Matthews, contact:
Source:
Cléa Desjardins
Senior advisor, media relations
University Communications Services
Concordia University
Phone: 514-848-2424, ext. 5068
Email: clea.desjardins@concordia.ca
Twitter: twitter.com/concordia
===================================================
*“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” The Independent, March 20, 2000.
h/t to bladeshearer
I notice that the obesity scare was thrown in for good measure. I miss the junk food science website (Sandy Szwarc). This (the ice hockey study) is part of what I like to call Big Foot research. It is what you get when there is not enough legitimate, quickly done, research to go around to supply all the professors who need publications for tenure and promotion, graduate students who need theses material, and government institutions that have to show that they are doing something. See James Le Fanu’s “The Rise and Fall of Modern Medicine” for an elaboration on this idea. A good review is here:
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/LeFanu.htm
I call it Big Foot research because there is no limit on the amount of research that can be done in searching for its existence and there are people who do exactly that.
I actually love when they make outrageous predictions like this. It shows people that alarmists tend to exaggerate just a wee bit.
Well, our priorities are clear. Hockey is far more important than lower winter heating bills.
Bemoaning a shorter hockey season, and not celebrating a more affordable winter.
Gretzky? I guess Canadians don’t have anything cultural to do when it’s not snowing?
Maybe someone should pass one the Georgia Tech madness to them. As Steve Goddard has posted, the hockey team needs a huddle. Here was my perspective last week….. now I’ll have to update it with this bit of stupidity. http://suyts.wordpress.com/2012/03/02/what-ive-learned-this-week-from-the-really-sciency-people/
Spaghetti science…. I think they’ve got each base covered now…..
I wonder how the Americans are able to put a team on the ice that competes at the finals of the World and Olympic championships given they are so much further south of us Canadians.
Wayne Gretxky grew up in Southern Ontario, the most southern part of Canada and the mildest. Just imagine how good he could have been had he had an abundance of outdoor natural ice to devlop his skills.(sarc)
Unbelieveable nonsense! Are we sure David Suzuki isn’t behind this compelling study?
You can smile and laught about it – and the tone of the report allowed such mocking.
The reality for people living in Canada – southern edge of the country. We have to wait until january to have good ice, and it’s mostly over by mid feb. While in the 60’s-70’s we could skate from mid december to early march. That’s our reality.
It’s a question of getting long period of cool temps ; 5 days with -10c or less will give you a very good starting point to get a good ice quality. But if it rains the next week or you get a warm temp surge (as we’re seing about every week and half), then you have to start over.
Over the last 10 years in the eastern part of the country and southern edge, many towns stopped building outdoor rinks as it cost too much for the time it last. No need to laught about it, or put up a paper about it, just look outside. That’s our reality like it or not. Will it continue – who really knows and can answer that question.. If it stays has it is, then for sure we’re in trouble. If it warms more, than we can simply forget about it. The only way out is to get cooler winter seasons. Some people here made remarks about how much snow there was.. Yep don’t you remember the last Olympics with all the rain on the rockies. It’s the same in the east, it used to be that most of the ski stations could make it through the winter without heavy snowing systems. Now if you don’t have such system, then you can close your station – as it is mandatory to have such system if you want to assure the snow pack conditions. Again, that’s reality – all the ski stations who could not afford such system have closed over the last 30-40 years.
Here’s a copy of a closing order from Levis (Quebec) – known to still have good winter, yet this year on Feb. 17th they closed all outdoor rinks because of the warm weather and rain. And we’re seing such situation over and over every year.
http://www.ville.levis.qc.ca/Fr/Pdf/Intemperie/Directive_-_fermeture_patinoires_exterieures_en_date_du_17_fevrier.pdf
2012 Labatt Blue UP Pond Hockey Championship
Well, this year we had a wonderful tournament. There were a total of 159 teams, from Canada, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming that participated in our event, with 20 different age and skill level divisions. We thank all of you for coming and helping to make our 2012 event the success that it was!
World Ice & Snow Sailing Championship
The World Ice & Snow Sailing Championships (WISSA) are coming to St. Ignace, Michigan! This week-long event will be held February 20-26.
Held Feb 24-26 2012 on Chain Lake in St. Ignace, Michigan. They also held World Ice & Snow Sailing on the same lake the full week prior.
Ya the warm winter weather is really stopping the hockey, ice sailing, angel making etc.
Truly tragic training truncation!
That really puts the C in CAGW. Instead of making out like everything is catastrophic perhaps they should just change it to IAGW (Inconvenient Anthropogenic Global Warming). The success of convenience stores proves we’ll pay to avoid inconvenience, there’s no such proof we’ll pay to avoid catastrophe.
Had a nice mild winter in NE Oregon. Nothing much near 0F, a bit of snow like this
am, but we like an open winter now and then. But to some, a mild winter is a curse.
So -20 and three feet of snow is a blessing?..
I thought it was called the Department of Redundancy Department? — John M Reynolds
Oh, how horrible, so in the future Canadians will only be able to play hockey in the winter. :p
Doesn’t this feeble alarmism sound vaguely similar to the UEA scientists back in 2000, who said that UK children would not know snow? And then a few years later the UK was clobbered with snowstorms.
Canada has 2500 indoor rinks, the most in the world I think, so if outdoor rinks fade away it will be due to lack of use. Besides, most kids would rather play hockey on frozen lakes which are far more plentiful.
And if outdoor rinks are threatened, wouldn’t frozen lakes also be threatened? Haven’t heard that alarmist claim yet, but I’m sure it’s coming. Lol!
OT
Younger Dryas and megafaunal extinction linked to meteorite.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/120305160814.htm
Dave:
You probably mean Tim Hortons.
John McManus
Regg. says (March 6, 2012 at 9:22 am): “You can smile and laught about it – and the tone of the report allowed such mocking.”
No, it actually begged to be mocked. 🙂
“The reality for people living in Canada – southern edge of the country. We have to wait until january to have good ice, and it’s mostly over by mid feb. While in the 60′s-70′s we could skate from mid december to early march. That’s our reality.”
Reality says: If you like ice, move north. Or way, way south. 🙂
The study went through 2005. Have they updated their study to the current year? Or would that show some inconvenient temperatures? Inquiring minds want to know.
Hey, stop bein’ a hoser, eh? It’s serious!
I’d be willing to bet my tuque that some winter soon, there will be plenty of snow and ice, and that, too, will be blamed on global warming.
See what the Toronto Star said here:
http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/juniorhockey/article/1140077–death-of-backyard-rinks-linked-to-climate-change
When asked by the reporter, Could hockey-mad Prime Minister Stephen Harper be persuaded of the dangers of climate change by the spectre of the end of backyard shinny? Co-author Damon Matthews said, “It’s certainly a motivation for me in doing the study.” And then he said, “Canada is lagging behind the rest of the world” in responding to climate change. (Excuse the punctuation, that’s the way it was in the article.)
So apparently he undertook the study to advance a pre-conceived conclusion.
It gets even more comical when the Star reporter quotes Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000 hour rule to gain expertise in a skill. He/She suggests that as a result there may be no more Canadian Gretskys and Canada will lose its hockey competence. Despite the fact that the vast majority of kids grow up play hockey indoors.
It is fear mongering .
Did they sanity-check it against records of outdoor rinks in a dozen rural locations? A dozen might not be statistically significant, but at least it would help them compare against actual hockey rinks.
What a complete load of tripe. I live less than 40 miles from Toronto. I have a spring fed pond in my front yard about 2/3rd the size of a hockey rink. I regularly get (measured each year for 13 years) about 15″ of ice. This year about 12″. In all those years of shoveling the snow off for myself and neighbourhood kids to skate on (taking 4-6 hours each time) I can count on ONE HAND how many kids have abandoned their xbox or wii’s to exersize outside skate or even help shovel…. in 13 YEARS.
The disappearance of outside hockey rinks is due to 3 factors….
1. Lazy kids who won’t get off their duffs to go outside be it winter OR summer
2. Lazy parents who don’t insist their kids get active or exersize in any way
3. Towns no longer providing rinks for their citizens because of budget shortfalls
Climate change my backside, unadulterated laziness is your cause.
I understand the water is VERY COLD in the shallow end of the gene pool.
>>>The proof is in the snowstorms — or lack thereof. Canada has taken more of a hit from global warming compared to other countries. Since 1950, winter temperatures in Canada have increased by more than 2.5°C, which is three times the globally-averaged warming attributed to global warming.<<
When experience returns a result three times the value expected on the basis of theory it seems wrong to consider that a "proof" or a confirmation. Rather, it's the ideal time to invoke "weather" as opposed to climate.
They could just ski Hawaii instead.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=19.826545342570284&lon=-155.47366619110107&site=hfo&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text
At least now there should be a common rallying point – nothing like messing with people sorts to get them motivated!