From the Canadian Department of Redundancy and the Journal of Paleohockey comes this hilarious study via press release that I first thought was a spoof. Sadly it is all too real. This a candidate for the Dr. David Viner Award.*
Children just aren’t going to know what hockey is.
Pond hockey heats up
Outdoor skating threatened by rising temperatures
Montreal, March 5, 2012 — Would Wayne Gretzky have blossomed into the Great One had he not honed his skills on a backyard rink as a kid? It’s a good thing that he grew up before global warming began wreaking havoc with our weather because the days of a game of shinny on that frozen pond are numbered.
The length of Canada’s outdoor skating season has decreased significantly, according to findings just published in Environmental Research Letters by Damon Matthews, professor in Concordia’s Department of Geography, Planning and environment — along with McGill colleagues, professor Lawrence Mysak and former graduate student Nikolay Damyanov. The evidence is already making headlines. Earlier this year, Ottawa’s Rideau Canal Skateway, the world’s longest skating rink, had to shut down due to warmer-than-usual seasonal temperatures.
The proof is in the snowstorms — or lack thereof. Canada has taken more of a hit from global warming compared to other countries. Since 1950, winter temperatures in Canada have increased by more than 2.5°C, which is three times the globally-averaged warming attributed to global warming.
In order to quantify how this temperature rise affects the outdoor rink, the researchers gathered information from outdoor public skating spaces in various Canadian cities. Taking the beginning of the outdoor skating season as the last in a series of three days where the maximum temperature does not go above -5°C, they created a set of weather criteria to determine the length of the outdoor skating season. Subsequently, the researchers counted the number of viable days during which the ice could be maintained to estimate the season’s length at each of the stations.
By comparing their findings with data gathered over 50 years, from 1951 to 2005, by 142 meteorological stations across the country, the researchers discovered that only a few of the weather stations showed a trend towards later start dates of the outdoor skating season. A much larger proportion of stations, however, showed a statistically significant decrease in the length of the skating season over the past half century.
The results paint a grim picture for the future of outdoor skating. The largest decreases in the skating season length were observed in the Prairies and Southwest regions of Canada. By extrapolating their data to predict future patterns, the researchers came up with some ominous news: within a few decades, we could see a complete end to outdoor skating in British Columbia and Southern Alberta.
No Canadian region is safe from that fate. For Matthews, it’s clear that we are all vulnerable to continued winter warming. “It’s hard to imagine a Canada without outdoor hockey,” he says “but I really worry that this will be a casualty of our continuing to ignore the climate problem and to obstruct international efforts to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.”
“The disappearance of outdoor hockey rinks and probably cross-country ski trails is not going to be good for the health of our youth and the leaders of tomorrow, who need all the exercise they can easily get.” said McGill Emeritus Professor, Lawrence Mysak, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.
Related links:
- Cited Study – “Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming”
- Concordia’s Department of Geography, Planning and Environment
- McGill’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
- Environmental Research Letters
For questions to Lawrence Mysak, contact:
Cynthia Lee, Media Relations – McGill University
cynthia.lee@mcgill.ca | T. 514.398.6754 | twitter.com/#!/McGilluMedia
To get in touch with Damon Matthews, contact:
Source:
Cléa Desjardins
Senior advisor, media relations
University Communications Services
Concordia University
Phone: 514-848-2424, ext. 5068
Email: clea.desjardins@concordia.ca
Twitter: twitter.com/concordia
===================================================
*“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” The Independent, March 20, 2000.
h/t to bladeshearer
ya, heard that on the news yesterday morning coming to work and just shook my head in disbelieve!!!
“within a few decades, we could see a complete end to outdoor skating in British Columbia and Southern Alberta.”
Obviously, a candidate for the Dr. David Viner Award.*
*“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.” The Independent, March 20, 2000.
REPLY: Good point – I’ll add that – Anthony
Nothing to do with urban heat islands. No.
OMG is nothing sacred. Now they’re taking away Canada’s national sport! Too bad they haven’t told my neighbours kids who have been skating and playing hockey regularly since January on their back yard mega rink. In spite of a mild winter in southern Ontario (Lake Erie shore 20 miles west of Buffalo New York) the ice has been pretty good. Even I strapped on the 30 year old Bauer Supremes and took a spin and fall.
Next thing you know pond hockey will have gone the way of Winter Ice Fairs on the Thames or the Hudson. We all know what a great loss *that* was to our civilization and culture.
Maybe the Canucks will want to visit the Netherlands, Friesland specifically, if they are missing icy conditions for skating.
The Elfstedentocht (Eleven Cities Tour speed skating race, Friesland’s historic, longer, and much colder version of San Francisco’s Bay-to-Breakers) was held last month thanks to especially frigid conditions The race — first held in 1909 — has been held only 15 times in its 103 year history. This year it was cold enough (at –14°F) to run it again.
It is important to note that the study cited ended its data (conveniently?) in 2005. I hear this winter and last was particularly cold from the Aleutians across northern Canada with no shortage of iced over ponds.
P.F. says:
I’ve been wondering about whether they ran the Elfstedentocht, but I was too lazy to check. Hans Brinker lives! Can Ice fairs on the Thames be far behind? 🙂
RE: Children just aren’t going to know what hockey is.
It’s worse than we thought, Children aren’t going to know what proper science is either. 🙂
…or with increasing safety standards, requiring a certain thickness of ice before the season can officially start.
1950: “Yeah, the ice looks thick enough, go ahead.”
1970: “Let’s drill a hole in the ice to see if it’s six inches thick yet, just to be sure.”
2012: “We have to check with the government before we can skate.”
I have to read the study in its entirety and find out exactly what they measured, yet.
However, it seems that they are accepting the theory that we are or will continue warming.
As someone else said, check Dr Viner and also Kennedy’s statements about snow in Washington. Did they check the 1930’s and 1940’s when greats like Mosienko and the Bentleys skated?
Those out easters ought to come out west to Alberta and try driving from Edmonton to Calgary today with all the cars, trucks and buses in the ditches. I cleared my driveway three times yesterday and I am about to do it again and there is no lack of ice. However, there is a chinook in the forecast that will raise temperatures well above freezing this weekend … but that is normal. The 30 year average high temperature is about 3 degrees C, the low is -10 degrees C. All that his changed is the position of the observers – isn’t that something about the theory of relativity? We seem to be in “normal” territory.
I just skied in 100cm of fresh Alberta snow yesterday. These guys just make stuff up as they go.
Of course, the assumptive elephant in the room is that they assume continued warming, OMG, for-evah !!! Natural cycles and periods of cooling are way outside their thinking. That’s why they are always drawing straight lines through cyclical data, of course, always starting in 1978 at the bottom of a cycle—you get better rising trend lines that way.
When reading articles now, as today reading a Smithsonian article on mammals, marsupials and monotremes, I read until the money phrase (“climate change”) and then quit.
Sorry to report that there was no Elfstedentocht this year in the Netherlands. We were just a few days short of freezing conditions. Many other skating tours were held, though.
Here is a link to the paper found on the Globe And Mail newspaper comment and a quote of comments that offers insights:
http://m.iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014028/pdf/1748-9326_7_1_014028.pdf
“Figure 2a shows interesting results in Alberta for instance:
For two close locations in SE Alberta the start date indicates a late trend in one AND an early trend in the other. Same for 2 locations near the US border… and locations in southern BC.
1) This is contradictory in a short distance where climatic conditions or the “deleterious effect” of global warming cannot be that heterogeneous. Only weather, local conditions or… man made maintenance could.
2) Or/and the trend is virtually so negligible that it is meaningless in one direction or the other.
3) Or the proxy is not well chosen
Figure 3 is very instructive: despite the ad hoc dataset -using proxy and max temp only… the trends are hardly convincing. The OSS length in prairies and southwest are the only definite ones, reducing the season’s length. Yet the start date does not change or so little. But using averages such as NAO PDO modes and average temps, one disconnects physical processes, weather from the dataset.
Their conclusion last sentences: “The ability to skate and play hockey outdoors is a critical component of Canadian identity and culture. Wayne Gretzky learned to skate on a backyard skating rink; our results imply that such opportunities may not available to future generations of Canadian children.”
But that’s great science deserving worldwide media exposure… /sarc”
Is this study a sign of desperation or a desperate call for help?
Weather Station
Montreal (CYUL)
Elevation
118 ft
Station Select
Now
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Temperature
16 °F
Feels Like 4 °F
==============================
History & Almanac
March 6, 2012 Max Temp Min Temp
Normal 29 °F 14 °F
Outdoor rinks in Moncton New Brunswick are being refridgerated. The icemaking season with natural ice has become too short to be worthwhile . The outdoor rinks are now useless unless artificial cooling systems are installed.
John McManus
cirby says:
March 6, 2012 at 8:07 am
Well played, sir. Well played…
Wayne Gretzky and I are the same age and grew up in the same area of Southern Ontario (I even saw him play as an 11 year old wunderkind — fortunately my team wasn’t on the receiving end of I think a 16 goal game). And yes his father built outdoor rinks for him in the 60’s.
We moved to Canada in 1966 and my father also built backyard rinks for the first few years — we thought it was normal — that this was typical for S. Ontario winters. It turns out these years were atypically cold. You’d be hard pressed to build a rink that lasts in that area from the 70’s to today.
But if you lived 50 kms north you could.
Hmmmm. Two papers are now out claiming that the ‘disappearing’ Arctic is responsible for more snow storms. I guess they missed the memo.
No hockey, eh? Sos I guess like that means those hosers are going to be usin’ up the stools at Dunkn Donuts eh. Cause like global warming, okay. Okay, so take off!
Michael Levi (not exactly a climate skeptic) has an interesting deconstruction of the paper in his blog:
The Death of Outdoor Hockey Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2012/03/05/the-death-of-outdoor-hockey-has-been-greatly-exaggerated/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+mlevi+%28Michael+Levi%3A+Energy%2C+Security%2C+and+Climate%29
“Since 1950, winter temperatures in Canada have increased by more than 2.5°C, which is three times the globally-averaged warming attributed to global warming.”
Yes, we have had a tough time here in Canada the past 60 years, this 2.5°C has nearly destroyed the nation. /sarc
Canada should be HAPPY if it was warming. If it was a few degrees warmer over there it would be a world powerhouse with vast developable land, arable land and easily accessible (currently under tundra and snow) resources (but then agian it would have an illegal alien problem with its poorer southern neightboor). It should be doing all it can to burn, burn, burn CO2 and deposit soot over every snow bank in sight.
Well, I guess hockey in an indoor rink is just not the same.
The hockey landscape has changed tremendously since I was kid and as was Gretzky. Blame the decline in outdoor ice use more on rise of organized hockey and smaller yards with all the hot tubs, landscaping, bigger homes, double driveways and pools taking up any extra yard space. Just finished clearing 32 cm of white, not so fluffy, global warming over the weekend. Darn tired today.