From Spaceweather.com :
Active sunspot 1401 erupted yesterday, Jan. 19th around 16:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud expanding almost directly toward Earth:
Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs). Aurora alerts: text, voice.
The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th. NASA’s Curiosity rover, en route to Mars now, is equipped to study solar storms and might be able to detect a change in the energetic particle environment when the CME passes by.
More on WUWT’s solar reference page here
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For a really neat auroral activity forecast page, see the University of Alaska Fairbanks website at:
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/2012/01/21/ .
You can choose a map to cover your own region. It also indicates the expected intensity. If you are located within the greenish-white bank, you’ll see the auroras if the clouds cooperate.
Clearly this is Solar Warming.
M.A.Vukcevic says:
January 21, 2012 at 4:55 am
Hard to see if it’s dormant, the signal is pretty noisy. One big problem with the Umbral Intensity graph is that the sudden cutoff at 1.0 suggests that there are sunspots that aren’t included because they’re invisible. A similar issue shows up in the Umbral Magnetic Field image. Among the strongest fields, the data is too noisy to say much, but note the strongest umbrae were a year ago. It all makes this solar max look a bit lame. The last thing I read from Livingston and Penn was that they weren’t counting the “lost” spots in their projections and that has the effect of stretching out the point where the average field goes below 1400 Gauss or so.
We can wait.
Since we’ve increased our satellite monitoring of the sun these’s been a big uptick in the reporting of and the hype surrounding these common events, much like what happens now every time a tropical storm forms. I looked up the forecast.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.
So there’s “a chance for minor storm levels?” Yawn. Two sunspot cycles ago we would barely have noticed this. A couple days of sub par shortwave radio propagation and then back to normal.
M.A.Vukcevic says:
January 21, 2012 at 7:59 am
take a look at : http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC1.htm
Well worth the look. The bigger question is why climate science is so obsessed with a narrow band of radiation that they can’t see the forest for the trees.
2 decades after it had been shown bacteria caused ulcers, 80% of doctors reported that stress contributed to the bacterial infection, and thus stress was a cause of ulcers. This allowed doctors to treat ulcers with antibiotics without having to admit that previous treatments were wrong.
@ferd berple says:
January 21, 2012 at 10:07 am This allowed doctors to treat ulcers with antibiotics without having to admit that previous treatments were wrong.
The Berlin wall of science is about to topple down. “Mr.Vukcevic…tear down that wall!” 🙂
Damn, that one made me spit coffee all over my laptop! Nicely done, Koblog!
ferd berple says: January 21, 2012 at 10:07 am
………
There is more to the Arctic and its magnetic field then the ice and CO2. I noticed this
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/HudsonBay.htm
in August 2009, wrote a short article, and lot more graphs and posts here and elsewhere, it took me another year or so to work out what was going on, and now it is all being put together.
adolfogiurfa says:
Hi Adolfo
I do it for fun and own amusement
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/the-dog-is-the-weather/
You people have no idea just how serious this is, I have reliable information that thre families in Australia have cancelled their Barbies. Yoyu cannot get more serious than that cobbers
@M.A.Vukcevic says: Then you need to present your statistics as Hans Rosling´s “Fun with Stats”
Why is nasa.gov using an Apple Favicon? When you open the link to the animated forecast track there is a little apple icon next to the URL. Are government agencies now sponsored by private corporations?
MrC
I need some human sacrifices to appease the climate gods.
Any volunteers?
Nice Aurora on the Katla Webcam (The Icelandic volcano that went quiet so it will probably blow it’s top tomorrow – as is the way with these things)
Here’s the link http://www.ruv.is/katla/
If you’ve missed it here’s a screen snapshot I took earlier
http://www.theglobalthermometer.com/wcg/aurora.jpg
Enjoy
Pamela Gray, heck with that scientific claptrap. Being of Norse descent, I prefer to believe Thor and Odin cause the thunder and lightning. Those of you of Greek descent, feel free to believe in Zeus and Poseidon.
Just a question. How does the above video show anything coming directly towards the earth? Since our satellites and the earth are in virtually the same position relative to the sun, the simulated eclipse allows us to see an eruption that could not be headed directly at the earth. Is it not logical to assume anything coming directly at the earth from the surface of the sun would stay within the diameter of the sun from our vantage point? And would not most CME that happen on the earth facing side of the sun radiate a cloud towards the earth? Is this a non story or what? I assume i am missing something simple here.
Bob Limbach says:
January 21, 2012 at 6:34 pm
It is not a satellite (of Earth), although it is between us and the earth. There is more information about the source of the videos and what they represent here (will be replaced):
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/
[SNIP: Off topic. -REP]
@ur momisugly Bob Limbach says:
January 21, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Among other things, keep in mind that the Sun also rotates on it’s axis and has a significant gravitational field as well. These are 2 of the several things that determine the direction and speed of a CME, and make it difficult to predict Earth impact until it’s well on it’s way. The plasma must exceed Sols escape velocity at a minimum, but by how much will largely determine the intercept point with earths orbit and whether it’s a direct hit or a glancing blow. It also dissipates during the trip, not always evenly however.
Curiousgeorge says:
January 21, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Among other things, keep in mind that the Sun also rotates on it’s axis and has a significant gravitational field as well. These are 2 of the several things that determine the direction and speed..
~
After seeing a supposed football field sized comet, (burning brightly) go into the solar atmosphere and after an hour emerge and accelerate .. maybe we should reconsider just how significant that solar gravitational field might be..
The CME hit early this morning (spaceweather.com said about 0600Z). Didn’t seem to have much effect on the Earth except in polar regions. Highest K value was 4 (unsettled). Bz briefly hit about 30 to the south a few brief times, but seemed to stay mostly north (a south Bz vector is conducive to solar storms, auroras).
Any relation to the class M whacking the poles?
Two “South Pole” Earthquakes
1) Magnitude 5.6 – SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS 2012 January 16 03:59:44 UTC
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0007liq.php
2) Magnitude 5.2 – SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION 2012 January 22 06:00:09 UTC
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0007pwu.php
The Magnetosphere looks like it was tied in a knot before the impact and then it was rocking and rolling when the flare/CME hit:
M9!!! incoming and maybe more…http://www.spaceweather.com/
Just The Facts says:
January 22, 2012 at 9:50 pm
~
WOW, lots of IMF flopping around there, JTF.
Remarkable amount of dayside reconnection particle injection..in movie.
Was trying to get to Alaska edu model of IMF for the period, but seems some changes at the site.
Model explained below:
The Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) model is a “modified kinematic” model. “Kinematic” in that the model kinetically projects the flow of the solar wind from inhomogeneous sources near the sun out into interplanetary space. “Modified” in that the model adjusts the flow for stream-stream interactions. The model output is the shock arrival time, solar wind speed, density, and magnetic field time series. For more details on models follow links:
http://www.expi.net/expinet/kinematic.html or http://gse.gi.alaska.edu/
But take a look at the model example which is dated for Jan 23 2012 at this page.
http://www.expi.com/index.html The site is still under construction, but if you zoom the model image on this page, you will see a closed loop in the IMF .. VUKs..
I’m a little freaked..
And we have some freezing rain today..eeeek
Garrett says:
January 21, 2012 at 2:30 am
“Listen folks, this is data from a NASA satellite, so it can’t be trusted (remember, they also supply, along with NOAA, the data for sea and surface temperatures). You also need to use scientific models to calculate how CME’s propagate through space, but models are always flawed (climate modelling uses similar methods to these models) so all these space weather predictions are almost certainly baloney! Otherwise, if you believe this stuff then you might as well believe the climate scientists, and we don’t want that, do we?”
Apples and oranges. Some pretty good hard data available on CME’s, climate, not so much. Cause and effect pretty straight foreward for CME’s, climate, not so much. Variables involved for CME’s well defined, climate, not so much. Garrett, it is quite evident why you buy the climate claptrap.