From Spaceweather.com :
Active sunspot 1401 erupted yesterday, Jan. 19th around 16:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud expanding almost directly toward Earth:
Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs). Aurora alerts: text, voice.
The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th. NASA’s Curiosity rover, en route to Mars now, is equipped to study solar storms and might be able to detect a change in the energetic particle environment when the CME passes by.
More on WUWT’s solar reference page here
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From http://www.solarham.com
SWPC Forecasters have determined that the CME will likely pass above (north) of Earth. This glancing blow will cause just G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Look for the first signs of it around 1800Z (1:00 pm EST) on Sunday, January 22, with the bulk of the disturbance to occur Monday, January 23.
Is there any “scientific” study out there DEMONSTRATING an increase in CO2 concentration will make the atmosphere react to CMEs in some dangerous manner?
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) says: “Is there any “scientific” study out there DEMONSTRATING an increase in CO2 concentration will make the atmosphere react to CMEs in some dangerous manner?”
Hush, Maurizio!!
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) says:
January 20, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Is there any “scientific” study out there DEMONSTRATING an increase in CO2 concentration will make the atmosphere react to CMEs in some dangerous manner?
____________________________________________________________________________
Not as far as I know, but send me a suitably-sized grant and I’ll happily make one up for you. (:-
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) says:
January 20, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Is there any “scientific” study out there DEMONSTRATING an increase in CO2 concentration will make the atmosphere react to CMEs in some dangerous manner?
————————————————————————————————————————
Ready-made grant application if you ask me. Make the application, paint CO2 as the bad guy (no science required) and the work out how to spend your millions ….
“Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) says:
January 20, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Is there any “scientific” study out there DEMONSTRATING an increase in CO2 concentration will make the atmosphere react to CMEs in some dangerous manner”?
Co2 enhances energy by .5 Wm/2 more than non trace GHG’s.
e.g: say for extra 100 Wm/2 into the energy budget, Trace GHG’s = 10%. Then,
The planet would heat by .05% more. But, that heat under 1st law can only be employed until mass returns to potential energy state, and things will get back to normal after a spike of 1.65 DEG.
So much for high frequency communications – stupid nature. 🙁
Does a CME really travel that fast?
“Their animated forecast track predicts an (Earth) impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT
The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th.”
Really 3 days to get from Earth to Mars
We shold build a CME Sail ship
Be careful, the CME contains a NOVA in it.
If you were scared, I apologize and I must add: the post-socialist Europe knows that CME is
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_European_Media_Enterprises
Central European Media Enterprises owned by Ronald Lauder and TV NOVA is the largest Czech (and probably East European) commercial TV and it is owned by CME. 😉
Bloody Global Warming.
I would like to apologize for the latest solar flare. You see, I just bought a new laser pointer, and while testing it out, I accidentally pointed it at the sun, setting off the disturbance.
The only proven role that the trace gas CO2 plays in earth’s dynamic system is as an essential plant nutrient. I can’t see how it could interact with CME’s in any significant way.
Looking at WUWT solar reference page the offending sunspot it way up in the sun’s northern hemisphere so it looks to this layman that the bulk of the CME should pass over the earth’s north pole. Close, but not a bullseye as pointed out by maikls above.
Maurizio Morabito (omnologos) January 20, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Is there any “scientific” study out there DEMONSTRATING an increase in CO2 concentration will make the atmosphere react to CMEs in some dangerous manner?
Has anyone said it would?
CME should pass over the earth’s north pole.
Particles folow the Solar magnetic field which is not radial, it converges towards the equatorial plane.
Earth often gets hit by the coronal holes’s fast solar wind originating from the sun’s polar regions.
markus says:
January 20, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Co2 enhances energy by .5 Wm/2 more than non trace GHG’s.
;———————————————————————————-
I believe you meant .5 Watts/meter^2 instead of .5 Wm/2.
In any case, flux (Watts/meter^2) is not equal to energy (Joules.)
Having watched these vids am I still expected to believe that CO2 drives climate and that that fiery furnace only 93 million miles away has little effect on the changes? Yeah right!
Listen folks, this is data from a NASA satellite, so it can’t be trusted (remember, they also supply, along with NOAA, the data for sea and surface temperatures). You also need to use scientific models to calculate how CME’s propagate through space, but models are always flawed (climate modelling uses similar methods to these models) so all these space weather predictions are almost certainly baloney! Otherwise, if you believe this stuff then you might as well believe the climate scientists, and we don’t want that, do we?
This is terrible news. This gives me precious few hours to sell everything and give it to Al Gore for a suitable sacrifice to Gaia.
With a solar forcing of only 0.12W/m², surely this spurt of solar activity cannot have any impact whatsoever on our commuications systems, let alone the climate! This is a non-story, Anthony! (sarc off)
Don’t worry. Obama will save us. I know he will. They said so on the news.
It’s well below zero in Central Indiana . . . . sure could use some of that good old global warming
Perhaps we need a second opinion from Al Gore and the Climatologists at Penn State who brought us man made global warming on the taxpayers dime with trumped up hocus pocus.
I am sure they will have a theory to reflect their “facts”.
This has got to be the 1st solar flare the Earth has experienced, no?
Let’s spend (waste) some taxpayer dollars to examine this freakaloid of nature too.
On other solar matters:
The Livingston and Penn effect has gone dormant (I am still sceptical on this one)
Latest from Dr. Svalgaard:
http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png
…every time we submit for publication, it is rejected
……if Livingston is right, the world will take notice in a few years. We can wait.
Latest TSI from SORCE:
http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_3month_640x480.png
http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/total_solar_irradiance_plots/images/tim_level3_tsi_24hour_640x480.png
The M3,2-flare took place in NOAA 1402.
It was a long duration event (LDE) lasting over 4 hours: Starting at 13:44UT, peaking at 16:05UT and ending at 17:50UT (source: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/20120119events.txt). At that time, there were of course still plenty of post flare coronal loops visible.
Using Helioviewer (http://helioviewer.org/), I combined SDO-images in the filterwavelengths 4500A (photosphere; 6000K), 171A (upper transition region; 650000K) and 335A (lower corona; 2,5 million K) into one movie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTBmjMtWBsA). This shows the position of the flare and the coronal loops relative to NOAA1402. Note the dynamics in the coronal loops, of which one end seems to be anchored above the region’s main (big) spot.
More on my website http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/index.html