UPDATE: The error has now been completely eliminated from the article. Details below.
Guest post by James Padgett
As many readers are aware, the culture surrounding the climate change topic area of Wikipedia has been a microcosm of climate science for nearly a full decade.
This is not a compliment.
When you read the Climategate emails and see discussions of finding people to investigate and discredit your ideological opponents – that is Wikipedia. When you read about the IPCC’s usage of the WWF and students in composing their Climate Bible (KJV) – that is Wikipedia. When you read about “climate scientists” conspiring to get other scientists fired for challenging the orthodoxy – that is Wikipedia.
In short, Wikipedia does not care about truth, and certainly not doubts, it cares about message.
And that’s what this article is about, how the truth, when made plainly clear, is suppressed in favor of misinformation that is on message.
Early last month I was browsing the Wikipedia article on the Soon-Baliunas controversy. The “mainstream” view on the topic is that the paper was so horrible that several editors resigned from Climate Research in protest. Those following the Climategate emails know that there was a strong and shady behind-the-scenes effort to both discredit the paper and show journals what happens to their reputations and hairlines when you dare to publish research contradictory to the “settled science.”
Part of this public relations process, of which Wikipedia is an integral component, involves rewriting facts, refocusing views and never ever giving in to rationality or reality.
How was this done in the Soon-Baliunas article? I don’t have the time or inclination to point out all the bias and opinion-herding in the article, but I’ll show you the sentence that initially caught my eye back in early December:
“The Soon and Baliunas paper had been sent to four reviewers during publication, all of whom recommended rejecting it.” (1)
Now isn’t that interesting? Why would they publish the paper if all of the reviewers recommended rejecting it? It certainly would be quite the scandal if that villainous Chris de Freitas pushed to publish it under such conditions.
A little digging shows that Wikipedia used to have the correct sentence – that none of the reviewers recommended rejecting it. In fact, an anonymous user tried to revert the article back to this correct version. The response was typical – change it back and then have one of the administrator gatekeepers, “MastCell,” protect the article from anonymous users. After all, the only people who could ever be correct are the Champions of the Earth.
But that wasn’t the end of it. That wouldn’t be a good demonstration of the obstinacy of the keeper of climate truth.
The few non-anonymous users who cared about the article being accurate pointed this out. Pages and pages of argument resulted, with the typical gatekeepers like Dave Souza and Stephan Schulz relying on a single source to make their claim, while ignoring numerous other sources, not to mention common sense, which contradicted their assertion regarding the reviewers.
What was their source?
An article in the Guardian by Fred Pearce.
What sources contradicted this?
Chris de Freitas himself publically showed this email (also here from Climategate), which would support my view – and he privately made it crystal clear to me that everyone recommended publication.
Of course, de Freitas would be biased….
But Clare Goodess, of the ever-reputable University of East Anglia, an editor who resigned over the incident, ambiguously intoned in a manner subject to much interpretation:
“The publisher eventually asked to see the documentation associated with the review of the paper – which had apparently gone to four reviewers none of whom had recommended rejection. Otto Kinne concluded that the review process had been properly conducted.” (2)
So instead of relying on common sense, original documents, and the statement, at the time, of an involved scientist certainly not supportive of the Soon-Baliunas paper, weight was given to Fred Pearce’s article which was written seven years after the fact.
Naturally, I was curious as to where Mr. Pearce received his information. He was friendly and helpful, despite his busy schedule with the holidays and Durban, and attempted to find the original source for the claim in his article. Unfortunately, he could not find the original source in his records. He does agree that the statement was, in his words, “almost certainly wrong” and theorizes that he may have misread Clare Goodess’ statement on the matter.
So that should settle it right? This article itself could be a “reliable source” to remove the error from Wikipedia. After all, Real Climate is quoted extensively throughout the climate change articles. Perhaps, but not when you have obsessive-compulsive activists who care more about their cause than their integrity.
However, this incident does bring some other questions to mind.
Andrew Montford, author of the Hockey Stick Illusion, was inquiring with Pearce about his source as well and was curious if Michael Mann had been the one to mislead Pearce. This is an interesting theory, and I had been wondering if this was the case myself both due to Mann’s behavior regarding this incident, his well-known inclination towards manipulating journalists, as well as the original wording in Pearce’s article, which was:
“But many on the 10-man editorial board agreed with Mann. They concluded that their colleague de Freitas had ignored the anonymous advice of four reviewers to reject the paper.”
There is no way to know for certain; it certainly isn’t clear. All I know is that Mann and his friends, and this is the short list, when confronted with a paper that challenged their own work, threatened to boycott the journal, tried to get the editor fired, tried to get the authors fired, and was even so juvenile as to file a complaint against the New Zealand Herald for not letting him publish his attacks against de Freitas.
Obviously, he is the quintessential climate scientist of our day – and I hope one day that Wikipedia gives him due credit as such.
Cheers,
James Padgett
=======================
UPDATE: Following a conversation on Wikipedia founder Jimbo Wales’ talk page the error has been removed despite initial resistance from those who perpetrated the misinformation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User_talk:Jimbo_Wales#Activism_at_Wikipedia.3F
Also, I’d like to thank Nona, who tried to correct the error earlier as an anonymous user.
Take note:
This we know: RealClimate ( a Fenton Communications/ Environmental Media Services production) .
This is less public.
This link to a pdf of IRS form 900.
http://wikimediafoundation.org/wiki/Financial_reports#2010.E2.80.932011_fiscal_year
Go to Page 46.
Read the list of Highest Paid Contractors. Hmmmm…
Now go to Page 19. Hmmm…
Now as an excersize, check other income tax filings for the oranization.
And you people wonder Why there is a Climate Scientology bias.
I went and edited the page I mentioned above.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Chaos_theory&action=history
Within half an hour Connolley (who I thought had been banned) had come in and changed “climate” back to “weather”. Someone else noted that the reference related to Climate not Weather so a few minutes later Connolley just removed the entire reference!
It had been incorrect for over a year and that was fine but when someone corrects it he is in like a shot.
In cockney rhyming slang I think that Connolley could be described as a “merchant banker”.
“The error has now been completely eliminated from the article.”
Let’s check back in a few weeks and see if the error manages to creep back in.
prescient, Jeff.
Let’s not hold our breaths waiting for it, but Pearce would do well, now that he has admitted his error more or less privately, to write an article correcting his earlier error.
If anything, such a retraction of the statement would certainly make for a good article. It might crate a firestorm, but a little added notoriety is good for a journalist, come the next salary push. A retraction is also not going to add or detract from his warmist journalism overall. Admitting to an error is simply getting a fact straight, not a political position.
Thanks for comments re my saying I respect Jimmy Wales. I honour those comments. I think my respect still stands, but it is a qualified respect.
I think WP works well for stuff that is already so well-digested that it’s basically in encyclopedic mode already. I couldn’t have done what Wales did and WP provides a service that I frequently use – as a starting point.
But it simply is not geared to work, and cannot be geared to work IMHO, in any “unorthodox” issue. Here I take people’s point that the “leftie activist” element that is responsible for a lot of the problems here, has gone OTT – and that this may reflect an unlikeable side of Jimmy Wales.
I’m furious with WP’s bias – but I don’t want that fury to unbalance my overall perception. Basically I’ve concluded that WP is systemically unfit for the really interesting stuff, I’ve turned my back on it, and I feel that we owe it to ourselves to create dedicated wikis around each nexus of unorthodox interest. Electric Universe theory is another candidate for a dedicated wiki. IMHO.
I always found comparing Castro and Pinochet quite amusing on Wikipedia. I really think that they should split every article into two pages, pro and con. All things aside, it does record some stuff, but it will never be an Encyclopaedia Galactica.
Ooops.
The URL for Wikis IRS 900 form showing Fenton Communications as a Main Paid Consultant to Wiki and also indicating that most of their (Wiki) funding comes from just a few $million+ donations in my [Andrew30 says: January 11, 2012 at 3:56 am ] Post should have been
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/foundation/1/1c/WMF_2009_2010_Form_990.pdf
Page 19 and 46.
Sorry for the confusion.
Richard Drake puts across my point of view re WP, much better than I, over at the Bishops Palace
Thank you Richard
Looks like William M. Connolley is back to his old trick on Wikipedia.
on this page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory
the original post was:
Chaotic behavior can be observed in many natural systems, such as climate.[5]
[5] Climate Chaotic Instability: Statistical Determination and Theoretical Background
Here is what it was changed to:
Chaotic behavior can be observed in many natural systems, such as weather.
The reasons? Here they are:
11 January 2012 William M. Connolley (talk | contribs) (58,184 bytes) (Undid revision 470775056 by DIY Sunrise (talk) weather is a much better example) (undo)
11 January 2012 William M. Connolley (talk | contribs) (57,905 bytes) (I’ve looked. The Sneyers thing isn’t good, so is best removed.) (undo)
Here is the text to replace “weather” to fix things up if you are so inclined. You make the change here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Chaos_theory&action=edit
here is the text to use to replace “weather”. good luck. see how long it takes before you are undone.
climate.{{cite journal | author = Sneyers Raymond | year = 1997 | title = Climate Chaotic Instability: Statistical Determination and Theoretical Background | url = | journal = Environmetrics | volume = 8 | issue = 5| pages = 517–532 }}
Lucy Skywalker says:
January 11, 2012 at 9:47 am
But it simply is not geared to work, and cannot be geared to work IMHO, in any “unorthodox” issue.
The problem with WikiPedia is that it allows anyone to DELETE anyone Else’s work. This is the modern equivalent of book burning.
Hi folks. it is great to know that I’m not forgotten. I’ll skip the arguements over GW (err, mostly), because I doubt you care really, but…
what is missing from all of this is wiki’s standards, which are “The threshold for inclusion in Wikipedia is verifiability, not truth—whether readers can check that material in Wikipedia has already been published by a reliable source, not whether editors think it is true.[under discussion]“.
You may not like that – I don’t – but the arguement is an easy one: if you “know” something to be true, that is very nice, but if you want to write it into wiki you need a reliable source. That principle is unevenly enforced, but becomes important during disputes (see-also WP:TRUTH.
Misc:
Cuthbert: “William M. Connolley… allowed to run roughshod over climate articles… One only needs to look at the hot bed article;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming
to see how many times, they have tried to delete the article”
Err no. I’ve consistently argued against it being deleted.
Ben K: “AGW proponents argue that this warming is accelerating”. Really? Perhaps you’d care to point out where http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming says so, then?
Lew Skannen: weather is clearly chaotic. Climate probably isn’t; not during the holocene, mostly, and not during the near future (http://mustelid.blogspot.com/2005/06/climate-is-stable-in-absence-of.html). it is arguable; but the point is that it is a poor example in that article.
William M. Connolley says:
January 12, 2012 at 2:49 am
Lew Skannen: weather is clearly chaotic. Climate probably isn’t
Free speech and the free exchange of ideas is how human society advances. Censorship and the silencing of the opposition is the mark of tyranny.
Cite a reference supporting the counter argument and add that to the article on chaos. That is the correct approach to the truth, so that all lines of inquiry are maintained.
What was done instead was to delete the reference and substitute an opinion without any reference. This is the equivalent of book burning, which throughout history has been associated with groups that are intolerant of anything that does not match their belief system.
What we know about chaos is dwarfed by what we don’t know. Removing a reference simply increases the level of ignorance. The real question is this. Is understanding and knowledge being held back for the personal gain of climate insiders?
Here is the citation removed from WP and replaced by “weather”. Change the < ad > before posting to the “less than” and “greater than” characters.
climate.<ref>{{cite journal | author = Sneyers Raymond | year = 1997 | title = Climate Chaotic Instability: Statistical Determination and Theoretical Background | url = | journal = Environmetrics | volume = 8 | issue = 5| pages = 517–532 }}</ref>
FB: the chaos article isn’t the place for debating whether climate is chaotic or not. It also isn’t the place for providing an exhaustive list of all chaotic processes. It is trying to provide some useful examples of chaos. Weather is clearly a much more useful example. Feel free to join the discussion on the talk page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Chaos_theory#Weather_and_climate).
This is the equivalent of book burning… – this is called “discrediting yourself by hyperbolic overreaction”.
If your point is something like “climate is chaotic, *therefore* we can’t predict the future a-la IPCC” then fine; that is a point of view. But the place to argue for it is not s/weather/climate on the chaos page.
See-also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:OR (and WP:SYN).
William M. Connolley says:
January 12, 2012 at 2:49 am
what is missing from all of this is wiki’s standards, which are “The threshold for inclusion in Wikipedia is verifiability, not truth
Clearly the cited reference to “Climate Chaotic Instability” meets this standard as it is verifiable. There was a reference to the journal where it was published. Thus removing the citation was improper, a violation of WP standards.
Clearly the replacement of this citation with “weather” did not meet the standards as it was provided without reference and could not be verified. Thus the inclusion of weather was improper and violated WP standards.
Apparently this is not an isolated incident
Wikipedia:General sanctions/Climate change probation/Requests for enforcement/Archive2
1 William M. Connolley
1.1 Request concerning William M. Connolley
1.2 Discussion concerning William M. Connolley
1.2.1 Statement by William M. Connolley
1.2.2 Comments by others about the request concerning William M. Connolley
1.3 Proposal
1.4 Many prior warnings
1.5 Result concerning William M. Connolley
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:General_sanctions/Climate_change_probation/Requests_for_enforcement/Archive2#Many_prior_warnings
WC: what prevents one of the Obsessed from watching a page only to undo every change on the basis that he/she judges ALL sources as “unreliable” as long as they don’t agree with his/her point of view?
Nothing.
And the non-obsessed have better to do than embark in lengthy dispute resolutions with people who by definition obsess on the rules of Wikipedia.
Therefore the “reliable” rule is exactly what makes Wikipedia unreliable on the mildest of controversial topics.
It’s as if Parliament were permanently occupied by deranged single-issue advocates.
MM: wikipedia isn’t as simple as you think it is (from the outside, no-one understands wikipedia. If you want a fine example of that, the previously-cited http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=62e1c98e-01ed-4c55-bf3d-5078af9cb409 is excellent; see http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2010/01/a_childs_garden_of_wikipedia_p.php).
If you want to find out what happens when anon editors keep trying to push text onto a certain page, then by all means keep up the editing of the chaos page and find out. If you want to know what happens if an established editor “reverts” a page too often, try http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Administrators%27_noticeboard/Edit_warring.
Therefore the “reliable” rule is exactly what makes Wikipedia unreliable – no, your logic has failed you there. Wikipedia isn’t the Wild West you think it is.
I didn’t say it was the wild west…more like a collection of bureaucratic fiefdoms impervious to outside help by the uninitiated.
The case in topic, with the intervention of Pope Jimbo Wales restoring sanity, is a perfect example.
It’s still early Dark Ages…
James Padgett,
You might find this thread at Keith Kloor’s interesting. http://www.collide-a-scape.com/2012/01/12/corrections-not-necessary-in-botched-atlantic-story/comment-page-1/#comment-95553
It parallels certain parts of your story. Ari LeVaux couldn’t get changes make a headline associated with a story in the Atlantic so gave up on getting the editors to make corrections in the body of the piece. One wonders if the same thing would or did happen at the Guardian after Fred Pearce recognized that his assertion that all four reviewers had recommended against publishing.
If this is indeed a new common practice in journalism, it will muddy the citation waters even further at Wikipedia.
For those decrying wiki’s quality: and yet, wiki was only reporting what the “quality” media said, and has now been corrected. The “quality” media is still wrong. So where does that leave all those oh-so-smug folk who cry their purity in not using wikipedia as a reference but would happily use the “quality”?
As Wikipedia itself says:
Critics of the web decry the medium as the cult of the amateur. Wikipedia is worse than that; it is the province of the covert lobby. The most constructive course is to stand on the sidelines and jeer at its pretensions.
Ah stoat, the mathematician who insisted that not a single thing from Anthony could be published on Wikipedia until every single weather station had been surveyed completely ignoring the mathematical use of confidence intervals, how goes it. So who is your sock puppet on Wiki right now or do you simply coordinate with your little trolls like shulz offsite?
Wiki doesn’t allow blogs as sources, unless they are of high quality like RC (just tweaking you, try not to explode won’t you). I didn’t write the policy and I don’t agree with it. As for socks I have none and never had. Are you mistaking me for someone who would write a whole article about climate on wiki and not reveal that arbcomm had banned them?
REPLY: Well then, since WUWT is used as sources in Wiki, I’ll take the same complement you extended to RC – Anthony
squareheaded says: January 12, 2012 at 12:52 pm
As Wikipedia itself says: Critics of the web… etc
Out-of-context quote, very much misrepresents WP’s POV. The legit. context is:
Still, thanks for the ref. A really useful article because it does show the way self-awareness at WP via things like this article COULD lead to future WP reform.
There speaks someone who is oh-so-interested in objective truth and fair representation for both sides of an undecided debate. – Not.
Ah yes, the mighty Lord Connolley, out to save the planet from a phony crisis, waxes on about smugness and purity.
High comedy indeed.