This is strange. Usually we see the geomagnetic Ap Index increase with increasing sunspots and 10.7 cm radio flux. But the Ap index (the third graph below) has crashed to the third lowest level since January 2000, matching what it was a year ago. This is the second month of decline, and the decline is steep.
Maybe Livingston and Penn are right and while sunspots may still occur, they’ll be mostly invisible to observers due to low magnetic flux. This may be what happened during the Maunder Minimum.
Here’s the L&P plots of Umbral Intensity and Magnetic Field. Once the Umbral magnetic field gets below 1500 gauss, sunspots will no longer be visible.
Graphs from Dr. Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at source
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@rbateman
> Neither is the total sunspot umbral area in lockstep with the 10.7 cm flux:
But that’s better than the price of eggs in China.
http://chinaview.wordpress.com/2007/08/15/photos-man-made-fake-eggs-sold-on-china-night-market/
@robertb
> …Need a better Butterfly Diagram Trap?
But crosspatch wanted the expected value of the sunspot latitudes at the solar maxes. The diagram that Leif provided was much better for this purpose because it showed the average daily sunspot area at the bottom and the butterfly plots above them. So just align a vertical rule on one of the solar maxes, then note above each max the band of latitudes which intersect the ruler.
So, the expected latitude depends on the size of the cycle, but seems to range ‘typically’ from 5 to 30+ degrees north and south. A very ‘bushy’ distribution (as Leif noted).
It would be nice to see the butterflies from the Maunder Minimum.
===========
@Kim
> It would be nice to see the butterflies from the Maunder Minimum.
Would be rather sparse, not as many dots. Maybe like this?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_R0DCjuomVfA/TBPAjCQ1cOI/AAAAAAAAAJw/A7fiB6RtVvg/s320/Photo6_PolkaDotWaspMoth1.nice.jpg
crosspatch says:
December 6, 2011 at 7:48 pm
The sun is dying.
Been doing that Solar aging process thing that stars do.
Are you familiar with those classic binary star-system mass transfers?
If a brown dwarf were to approach within a lightyear or two, it could have some rather profound effects. A question for an Astrophysicist.
rbateman says:
December 13, 2011 at 4:09 pm
If a brown dwarf were to approach within a lightyear or two, it could have some rather profound effects. A question for an Astrophysicist.
There are already bigger stars at 4 lightyears, so there will be no effect. Now, make it 0.01 lightyear and there will be some action.
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 13, 2011 at 4:16 pm
How’s your astrophysics with regards to binary star systems theory going?
i.e. – if a stellar object approaching the sun at 1-2 light years away were to be affecting the solar cycle currents (plasma what have you)/ magnetic field, just how big would that something have to be and what type of stellar object might that be?
On another subject, the southern Solar sunspots are heading in the wrong direction, and they are doing it as a system, not an isolated few, and it appears to be pronounced and over several Carrington rotations.
We can’t go ruling out Outside the Box if we don’t look seriously.
rbateman says:
December 13, 2011 at 6:28 pm
i.e. – if a stellar object approaching the sun at 1-2 light years away were to be affecting the solar cycle currents (plasma what have you)/ magnetic field, just how big would that something have to be and what type of stellar object might that be?
We have already three stars at about 4 light years [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Centauri ] with a total mass of 2.1 solar masses. No effect from these is observed. If you have a [large] brown dwarf with mass 50 times Jupiter or 0.05 solar masses its gravitational force would equal that of Alpha Centauri if placed at a distance of 0.1 light year. So would have to be MUCH closer for any effect.
We can’t go ruling out Outside the Box if we don’t look seriously.
You can get too far out.
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 13, 2011 at 6:52 pm
its gravitational force would equal that of Alpha Centauri if placed at a distance of 0.1 light year. So would have to be MUCH closer for any effect.
I missed a sqrt somewhere, make that distance 0.6 light years, but you get the point.
rbatman:
If a brown dwarf were to approach within a lightyear or two, it could have some rather profound effects.
–
And just what “profound effects” do you envision happening at 1 Ly? Have you ever stopped to calculate this acceleration effect? You do know that the point mass to point mass acceleration would never be felt by either masses don’t you. But they are not point masses, right? Yet, any tidal effects would by so tiny I personally don’t see any measurable effect at all. Leif, isn’t that right?
Yet maybe you are speaking of alterations in the planets orbits solely, but still the differential effect seems would be once again, immeasurable.
wayne says:
December 13, 2011 at 7:36 pm
Leif, isn’t that right?
Yet maybe you are speaking of alterations in the planets orbits solely, but still the differential effect seems would be once again, immeasurable.
Yes, too small. To have any effect [e.g. on the orbits] the distance has to be MUCH smaller than 1 ly, or for tides MUCHO MUCHO smaller still.
Leif: Ditto
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 13, 2011 at 7:06 pm
Don’t stop there, and don’t limit the thinking to only a Brown Dwarf.
How much Mass do you need at 1 ly?
rbateman says:
December 13, 2011 at 9:52 pm
Don’t stop there, and don’t limit the thinking to only a Brown Dwarf.
How much Mass do you need at 1 ly?
For doing what? To rival the Sun’s force on the Earth? for that: 7700 solar masses. i.e. a large black hole or a VERY dense interstellar cloud.
rbateman says:
December 13, 2011 at 9:52 pm
Don’t stop there, and don’t limit the thinking to only a Brown Dwarf.
How much Mass do you need at 1 ly?
I keep forgetting that square.
For doing what? To rival the Sun’s force on the Earth? for that: 1 ly is 31,000,000 lsecs. The distance to the Sun is 500 lsecs. The ratio is 62,000; gravity depends on the square of distance, so we need 62,000^2 times as much mass to make up for the difference in distance, or 4 billion solar masses.
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 13, 2011 at 10:09 pm
For doing what?
For having a weakening effect on the Sunspots. Or dragging the Southern Solar Activity belt towards the South Solar Pole.
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 13, 2011 at 10:09 pm
or a VERY dense interstellar cloud.
Or a very energetic/highly charged interstellar cloud?
Any particular compostition of this hypothethical cloud you got in mind?
Again, this is just to affect the Sun and it’s magnetic field or apparent activity.
rbateman says:
December 14, 2011 at 8:17 pm
For having a weakening effect on the Sunspots. Or dragging the Southern Solar Activity belt towards the South Solar Pole.
Or a very energetic/highly charged interstellar cloud?
Any particular compostition of this hypothethical cloud you got in mind?
Again, this is just to affect the Sun and it’s magnetic field or apparent activity.
There is no evidence of any such cloud [and it would never be highly charged – as all plasmas are electrically neutral]. The Sun is perfectly capable of taking care of its own spots.
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 14, 2011 at 9:47 pm
It would be wise to remember what we supposed we knew about the Planets before Pioneer and Voyager, and interject “that we presently know of” in your post above.
Space has proven to be full of surprises.
rbateman says:
December 16, 2011 at 7:46 pm
It would be wise to remember what we supposed we knew about the Planets before Pioneer and Voyager, and interject “that we presently know of” in your post above.
That new knowledge is like geography [like learning about a far land by going there]. No new physics has been learned.
Ap=0 again.
2 days with k=0 and counting.
(Almost) not seen between 2007 and 2009.
Emmanuel says:
December 16, 2011 at 11:39 pm
Ap=0 again. 2 days with k=0 and counting.
The magnetic field in the solar wind and the solar wind speed are both very low. This causes Ap to be low.
For all Misters,
I respect your knowledge from complex domain scientific undefined,but I think it is bette off us to discuss about more simple things which the science didn’t resolve nowaday, as what are :
-root cause of Earth’s spin (perhaps for all planets
-Earth’s eccentricity vithout any astronomical data, etc.
Here my formulae for Earth’s eccentricity, please help me to resolve it.
ln{[(1+x)/(1-x)]}exp[(1-xexp2)/2x]=1, x-=eccentricity
Thanks in advanced,
Nikola