Just published in GRL, a new paper by Lockwood et al that suggests the sun may be headed for a Maunder type minimum.:
The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the Sun into Maunder Minimum conditions
Key Points
- Can we predict the onset of the next grand solar minimum
- Grand minima can be predicted using some solar indices
- The design and operation of systems influenced by space climate can be optimised
Abstract:
The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R2L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number RG and heliospheric modulation potential Φ for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For RG and Φ, R2L(t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t ≈ 4 and ≈ 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number RZ is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean RG are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.
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Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 11:48 am
The parameter that influences the Earth is the product of the magnetic field strength B and the solar wind V speed squared. If one only [incorrectly] plots the speed, the reconstruction matches very well even on a time scale of 27-days.
Here is that plot: http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Wind-Speed-During-Space-Age.png
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 8:29 am
Ulric Lyons says:
December 3, 2011 at 7:44 am
I bet one could get a better reconstruction from ENSO phase and El Nino frequency.
Since none of those are influenced by solar activity, it would be hard to get such.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/03/ian-wilson-enso-epochs-and-earth-rotation-lod/
The ups and downs of temperature correlate with the preponderance of numbers of El Ninos/La Ninas, which correlates with Earth rotation rate, which correlates with the Sun’s motion relative to the solar system’s centre of mass, which also correlates with solar activity levels.
My wild stab at guessing the underlying mechanism is that it will eventually be discovered that electro-magnetism plays a much bigger role in the solar system than hitherto thought.
Hey you ENSO boys up the thread
Why make things complicated, when they are really simple. Enso has its driving mechanism
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/ENSO.htm
no solar wind or any other magic ingredient required
M.A.Vukcevic says:
December 3, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Hey you ENSO boys up the thread
Why make things complicated, when they are really simple. Enso has its driving mechanism
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/ENSO.htm
no solar wind or any other magic ingredient required
The ‘Pacific Driver’ is a magic ingredient until you explain it.
M.A.Vukcevic says:
December 3, 2011 at 10:49 am
“Nonsense, you put yourself in the same category as the director of that insane asylum….”
Your lack of a sense of humour is becoming legendary.
Most of the time it is impossible to tell the difference between being your wrong or just trying to be ridiculous 🙂
tallbloke says:
December 3, 2011 at 12:31 pm
The ups and downs of temperature correlate with the preponderance of numbers of El Ninos/La Ninas, which correlates with Earth rotation rate
None of this is new or interesting, as the LOD depends on the movements of the air and oceans as those change the moment of inertia leading to changes in the rotation rate to keep the angular momentum constant.
which correlates with the Sun’s motion relative to the solar system’s centre of mass, which also correlates with solar activity levels.
Now, those two are just wrong [do not hold up to scrutiny]. There is no significant correlation and no mechanisms for causality.
@Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 11:48 am
“so, it is silly to fret about the short-term variations on the scale of one month [or 27 days].”
It makes all the difference to the ENSO condition at that scale, particularly at certain points in the year. There are clear changes in the ENSO vector that move simultaneously with the inverse of SW speed rises and declines. I am aware of the definition of an El Nino thanks.
Ulric Lyons says:
December 3, 2011 at 1:57 pm
It makes all the difference to the ENSO condition at that scale, particularly at certain points in the year.
Regardless, the reconstruction is very even at that scale.
There are clear changes in the ENSO vector that move simultaneously with the inverse of SW speed rises and declines.
This is unsubstantiated and not in the literature.
I am aware of the definition of an El Nino thanks.
You are giving a convincing imitation of somewhat who isn’t.
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 1:50 pm
There is no significant correlation
Yes there is.
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/ssb-z-lod1.jpg
and no mechanisms for causality.
If Jupiter and Saturn can make the Sun wobble by as much as two solar diameters in six years, I’m sure Jupiter and Saturn can make Earth’s length of day vary by a few milliseconds per three decades.
Bennett says:
December 2, 2011 at 8:51 pm
Ah yes. the immortal Billie…
For the present time, we are in for some solar activity, so we should expect less cloud formation,
depending on the season of course. There is another volcanic eruption expected in Iceland,
that might disrupt aeroplanes and add to cooling but it is their winter time. The Arctic circle and Antarctica are heading for six months of darkness. So it will get colder from now on for the Northern Hemisphere, most of it natural. It’s the summer temps we should worry about, if they get too cool, it will disrupt the growing seasons for crops or gardens. And that is what happened in the last ice age or mini ice age, the northern hemisphere had bad harvests. Warm creates evaporation, that creates clouds and rain. Don’t panic yet, we have years to adapt. Anyway the Durban Cop 17, seems to have drawn the conclusion, that they agree to disagree, and Australia and NZ and the EU are sitting there with a carbon tax or cap ‘n trade, permits for sale, like a shag on a rock.
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 10:21 am
“none of those are influenced by solar activity”
To say something doesn’t exist because it hasn’t been demonstrated is unscientific. Pluto existed long before it was discovered.
Non-linear interactions can have strong cause and effect relationships well below the level of noise. The argument that an interaction cannot exist because it is below the level of noise assumes that you understand the noise. Specifically, that the noise holds no signal of interest that is not noise. That is a highly unlikely assumption.
@Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Ulric Lyons says:
December 3, 2011 at 1:57 pm
It makes all the difference to the ENSO condition at that scale, particularly at certain points in the year.
>Regardless, the reconstruction is very even at that scale.
I can see many places where your reconstruction fails at monthly detail, all over the place behind your smoothed lines: http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Wind-Speed-During-Space-Age.png
so more reason not to use it for correlative purposes at that scale.
There are clear changes in the ENSO vector that move simultaneously with the inverse of SW speed rises and declines.
>This is unsubstantiated and not in the literature.
And predictably you would say the same for the SW speed forcing of land temperature deviations at even shorter time scales.
I am aware of the definition of an El Nino thanks.
>You are giving a convincing imitation of somewhat who isn’t.
To summarise, a change from an El Nino condition towards neutral or to a La Nina, happens repeatedly on a rising trend of monthly SW speed, and a weakening of a La Nina towards neutral or to an El Nino occurs repeatedly on falling SW trends. As mentioned before, the exception to this when there is a large stratospheric volcanic eruption, ie another source of cooling forcing an El Nino episode. This is not a full explanation as not every SW speed change alters the ENSO index, this will partly due to seasonal factors, and maybe due also to momentum of the system.
tallbloke says:
December 3, 2011 at 2:54 pm
“There is no significant correlation”
Yes there is. http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/ssb-z-lod1.jpg
What is the 30-yr lag? And you mean that the Sun didn’t wobble before 1840?
http://www.leif.org/reseach/LOD-Excess.png
If Jupiter and Saturn can make the Sun wobble by as much as two solar diameters in six years, I’m sure Jupiter and Saturn can make Earth’s length of day vary by a few milliseconds per three decades.
They are all in free fall and feel no forces so the planets don’t “make” the Sun do anything.
ferd berple says:
December 3, 2011 at 3:17 pm
“none of those are influenced by solar activity”
To say something doesn’t exist because it hasn’t been demonstrated is unscientific. Pluto existed long before it was discovered.
Unicorns don’t exist. The Tooth Fairy?
Who said “doesn’t exist”? It has not been demonstrated, that is enough, because it means that it is not an important enough effect to be detectable and thus doesn’t need to be taken into account.
Leif Svalgaard says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
you mean that the Sun didn’t wobble before 1840?
http://www.leif.org/research/LOD-Excess.png
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 4:42 pm
“They are all in free fall and feel no forces so the planets don’t “make” the Sun do anything.”
============
Really, the moon is in free fall, yet causes tides.
Leif what are you going on about? Free fall, that’s what parachutists do. The sun controls what planets do. It’s called gravity, may be wrong folks, or is electromagnetism. Sure the seas rise too
during a full moon, (king tides) and some get a bit more crazier during a full moon, i.e., lunatics. Weir wolves change skins, (only joking) and some old religions held their sabbats during the lunar cycle,
I don’t know what Leif is talking about solar wobbles, although some religious saint or whom ever
once said the sun wobbled and it stopped rotating.
u.k.(us) says:
December 3, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Really, the moon is in free fall, yet causes tides.
Apart from tides [which we have discussed many times]. The tides that Jupiter raises on the Sun is less than 1 millimeter high. There are 25.4 millimeters to one inch. So, yes, ‘really’.
bush bunny says:
December 3, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Leif what are you going on about? Free fall, that’s what parachutists do.
No, they are falling controlled by an atmosphere, and are acted upon by the force of air resistance. ‘Free fall’ is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_fall “Free fall is any motion of a body where gravity is the only force acting upon it”
I don’t know what Leif is talking about solar wobbles…
See tallbloke December 3, 2011 at 2:54 pm
If Jupiter and Saturn can make the Sun wobble
Pamela Gray says:
December 2, 2011 at 7:49 am
Tallbloke, you are absolutely correct. I haven’t a clue. Especially the variability part getting through our thick soup to such a degree that it smacks me in the face with something like, “Man oh man the Sun is quiet today. Must wear my fur coat instead of the stadium jacket.”
I suppose you are ready to tell me to never mind the descrepancy between our cold Pacific Ocean anomaly not matching the teeny tiny change in IR between a busy and a quiet Sun, or the power of eastern trade winds to blow warm water away not matching the teeny tiny power of UV variation on those trades.
Yep. I be clueless.
——-
*applause* We are not worthy!! That’s the way it’s done, great job, Pamela!
The simplest solution is often the right one.
For whatever reason a less active sun results in increased global cloudiness for reduced solar energy into the oceans causing weaker El Nino events and a cooling troposphere.
I’ve provided a full explanation on many occasions here and elsewhere.
ferd berple says:
December 3, 2011 at 3:17 pm
It was the first Grand Minimums out of the Roman Warm period and Medieval Warm period that caused the worst sort of agricutural calamnities. Not that the subsequent minimums were any picnic. Climate extremes are devastating and outliers are unpredictably prone to coming in bunches as latent heat energy oscillates with a cooling slope. That’s just the isolated Planetary System record. There is too much we don’t know of, or fully understand, beyond our local space that might present a driving force to Climate. e.g. – our Milky Way is clearly stratified along the Galactic Plane, and we won’t know about undiscovered effects until we are already immersered into these stratified layers.
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 4:42 pm
tallbloke says:
December 3, 2011 at 2:54 pm
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/ssb-z-lod1.jpg
What is the 30-yr lag? And you mean that the Sun didn’t wobble before 1840?
http://www.leif.org/reseach/LOD-Excess.png
What proxy is your LOD graph derived from prior to ~1840 Leif?
If Jupiter and Saturn can make the Sun wobble by as much as two solar diameters in six years, I’m sure Jupiter and Saturn can make Earth’s length of day vary by a few milliseconds per three decades.
They are all in free fall and feel no forces so the planets don’t “make” the Sun do anything.
You are considering gravity only. I’m sure the disturbances the planetary magnetosphere’s create in the interplanetary magnetic field will create back-eddys which can “travel upstream against the solar wind”.
I won’t try Anthony’s patience by getting into a protracted debate with you at this venue. If you can bring yourself to offer some constructive input to my admittedly speculative thinking on this, you are welcome to contribute to the current thread on my blog where I have enlarged on my thinking concerning the 30 year lag and the averaging period. You could tell us a bit more about your LOD curve and how it has been generated too. Is it Sidorenkov’s?
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/03/ian-wilson-enso-epochs-and-earth-rotation-lod/#comment-10237
Ulric
If you are still about, some time ago you asked : what is the N. Atlantic SST precursor?
My article
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/theAMO.htm
has been on line for about a month now. The answer can be found from page 8 onwards, but I recommend taking a look at the rest too
Volker Doormann says:
December 3, 2011 at 11:14 am
Because not only the plutino couple Quaoar/Pluto shows effects of global temperature changes, but also all neighbor planets from Mercury on outwards in the solar system, it is possible to trace and forecast the global temperatures in high resolution (over 6000 years in total).
This can be shown in a graph for the years 1550 AD until 1750 AD.
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_6_lockwood_1.gif
There is a remarkable coherence visible between the reconstructed temperature function in time of A. Moberg et al. and A. Mangini et al. and a simple summation of solar tide functions of the couples from Jupiter outside fits mostly well in the time function.
It can be seen that in the time of no Sun spots, there is still a dynamic in the temperature function working, and these oscillations can be shown all in geometry with solar tides functions.
The last similar ‘MM’ cold phase before 1645 AD occurred in the years of 535 AD ff. It is written:
“The Byzantine historian Procopius recorded of 536, in his report on the wars with the Vandals, “during this year a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness…and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear.” The Gaelic Irish Annals record the following: “A failure of bread in the year 536 AD” — The Annals of Ulster “A failure of bread from the years 536–539 AD”. Further phenomena reported by a number of independent contemporary sources: Low temperatures, even snow during the summer (snow reportedly fell in August in China, which postponed the harvest there). Crop failures “A dense, dry fog” in the Middle East, China, and Europe. Drought in Peru, which affected the Moche culture. “
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535%E2%80%93536)
“Abrupt changes in northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures extracted from the 7500-year ring-width chronology of Scots pine, the “most dramatic shift in growing conditions, from favorable to unfavorable, between two years, took place between A.D. 535-536” in Europe and Africa.”
(http://ezinearticles.com/?Days-of-Darkness-(AD-535-AD-546)&id=202540)
The “remarkable coherence visible between the reconstructed temperature function in time of A. Moberg et al. and A. Mangini et al. and a simple summation of solar tide functions of the couples from Jupiter outside fits mostly well in the time function” also for the years of 536-539 AD as shown in this graph (from 450-650 AD, without Sun spot number curve):
http://volker-doormann.org/images/ghi_6_lockwood_2.gif
Moreover, 100 years later, when the solar tide function of Quaoar and Pluto was exact for the second time after the year of 528 AD :
“During the late sixth century and early seventh century, the Eastern Turkic Empire (i.e., the Eastern Turkic Khanate) was the most powerful country in the Northeast Asia. It collapsed suddenly in A.D. 630, and historians concluded that the combination of social, political and economic factors, as well as the invasion of the Tang Empire, would be the root cause. Here we suggest that a climatic cooling event ca. A.D. 627–629 could be the direct cause.“
(http://www.akuastrateji.sumae.gov.tr/downloads/makale_en/Circa_AD_626_Vo.pdf)
‘German religious reformer Martin Luther (1483–1546) said Copernicus was “the fool who will turn the whole science of astronomy upside down.’ Seems that the climate dogma community have again hard times in expectation.
V.
tallbloke says:
December 4, 2011 at 1:36 am
What proxy is your LOD graph derived from prior to ~1840 Leif?
Proxy? The real thing: http://www.iers.org/nn_10398/IERS/EN/Science/EarthRotation/LODsince1623.html?__nnn=true
http://www.iers.org/nn_10398/IERS/EN/Science/EarthRotation/UT1LOD.html?__nnn=true
http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/earthor/ut1lod/lod-1623.html
I’m on the IERS mailing list.
Info about these things: http://www.iers.org/SharedDocs/Publikationen/EN/IERS/Publications/ar/ar2000/ar2000__055,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.pdf/ar2000_055.pdf
You are considering gravity only. I’m sure the disturbances the planetary magnetosphere’s create in the interplanetary magnetic field will create back-eddys which can “travel upstream against the solar wind”.
You may be sure of this, but that does not make it so. And they can’t and they don’t, as the wind is 11 times supersonic. The usual riposte to this goes something like this: “you can see Jupiter by its light. Light is electromagnetic radiation, QED”. Are you in that camp? ‘back-eddy’? define that. Be specific.
constructive input to my admittedly speculative thinking on this, you are welcome to contribute to the current thread
With the things you are sure of, there is no hope for constructive work. It is like discussing the age of the Earth with these people http://creation.com/age-of-the-earth
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 3, 2011 at 4:42 pm
“If Jupiter and Saturn can make the Sun wobble by as much as two solar diameters in six years, I’m sure Jupiter and Saturn can make Earth’s length of day vary by a few milliseconds per three decades.”
They are all in free fall and feel no forces so the planets don’t “make” the Sun do anything.
;———————————————————————————————————————-
I’m curious as to how you would explain the Earth bound CME every New Moon?