A response from Jeff Severinghaus on why the trees don't make good thermometers after 1950 – "I did indeed feel at the time that Mike Mann had not given me a straight answer. "

I had a brief email exchange with Professor Severinghaus about Steve McIntyre’s recent post on his discussion with Mann and others about the divergence problem. I post it without comment, with permission and without emphasizing any of his words:

Dear James,

This is fascinating.  I had no idea these emails were in the public domain.

In general Steve has gotten most of this right.  There really is a problem

with the trees not being sensitive to temperature after about 1950.  My

current best guess is that the higher CO2 since then has caused greater

warming at night (which is corroborated by minimum temperature trends,

since minimum temperatures usually occur at night).  Trees respire more

at higher temperature, so they lose carbon when nights are warmer

than average.  So their ring width has not increased as much as it would

have if the warming had been uniformly distributed over the diurnal cycle.

I think this is all published now so it should be possible to set the whole

record straight.  But I did indeed feel at the time that Mike Mann had not

given me a straight answer.  So if there is a response written, it won’t be

one defending Mike.

Jeff

Cheers,

James Padgett

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Johnnythelowery
November 28, 2011 8:49 pm

Darlings: Um……….excuse me a minute. Trees don’t perspire Carbon. They take the C for carbon and the O(2) for oxygen and they retain carbon and expire……..Oxygen. There will only be a correlation between carbon in-take and the availability of carbon to be in-taked. There is no Out-put of Carbon and so the idea is PhilJonesean. But maybe it plots on Excel. Question: in what ‘format’ is Carbon expired???????? Cheers………… Joe Public.

crosspatch
November 28, 2011 10:00 pm

Plants also have respiration and also release CO2 in addition to taking it up.
But it is all overblown anyway. If you have a fully mature forest that is no longer putting on net biomas, it is a net zero for carbon sequestration. “Old growth” forests provide no net reduction in atmospheric CO2. For every young tree that is growing putting on carbon, one is decaying releasing carbon. For every new branch sprouted, one is broken off from wind. At some point at full maturity, the forest stops adding net carbon biomass.
The best way to reduce CO2 is to plant fast growing trees, cut them down for paper, sequester the paper in a landfill. Paper recycling actually increases the rate of atmospheric CO2 increase by reducing the rate of tree planting for paper.
The second best way to reduce CO2 growth is through “sustainable” logging and forest management techniques that allow selective logging of the oldest trees in a mixed age forest and forest floor fuel management by regular controlled burning of the underbrush to prevent fuel load buildup resulting in extremely destructive, very hot fires.

Steve Garcia
November 28, 2011 10:02 pm

Johnny –
That was my point, that though trees take UP Carbon, but Prof Severinghaus said “…Trees respire more at higher temperature, so they lose carbon when nights are warmer than average.” [emphasis added]
That was what confused me. If they breathed more on warmer nights would they not gain Carbon?
Maybe not. Hattenschwiller et al 2006, titled Tree ring responses to elevated CO2 and increased N deposition in Picea abies in its abstract reads [emphasis added]

ABSTRACT
Four- to seven-year-old spruce trees (Picea abies) were exposed to three CO2 concentrations (280, 420 and 560 cm3 m−3) and three rates of wet N deposition (0, 30 and 90 kg ha−1 year−1) for 3 years in a simulated montane forest climate. Six trees from each of six clones were grown in competition in each of nine 100 × 70 × 36 cm model ecosystems with nutrient-poor natural forest soil. Stem dises were analysed using X-ray densitometry. The radial stem increment was not affected by [CO2] but increased with increasing rates of N deposition. [This seems to be atlking about ring widths…] Wood density was increased by [CO2], but decreased by N deposition. [This says that though the width wasn’t affected, the density WAS.] Wood-starch concentration increased, and wood nitrogen concentration decreased with increasing [CO2], but neither was affected by N deposition. The lignin concentration in wood was affected by neither [CO2] nor N deposition. Our results suggest that, under natural growth conditions, rising atmospheric [CO2] will not lead to enhanced radial stem growth of spruce, but atmospheric N deposition will, and in some regions is probably already doing so. Elevated [CO2], however, will lead to denser wood unless this effect is compensated by massive atmospheric N deposition. If can be speculated that greater wood density under elevated [CO2] may alter the mechanical properties of wood, and higher ratios of C/N and lignin/N in wood grown at elevated [CO2] may affect nutrient cycles of forest ecosystems.

Though this doesn’t specifically address the question I asked – about Prof S’s comment about warmer night temps – it does seem to relate to increased CO2 availability and intake converting to denser tree rings. I can only assume this is is talking about atmospheric CO2. That would seem to contradict the Professor’s statement – and would seem to agree with you and me.
I think the professor may simply have misspoke. But this applies only to spruce trees, as far as the study spells out. Still, though extrapolating it to other trees may not be quite correct, it does seem a reasonable assumption.

November 28, 2011 10:28 pm

Never seen serious study comparing daily minimums and maximums and attributing night warming to GHE. Of course, night warming is also prone to UHI.

Don K
November 28, 2011 10:36 pm

R Barker says:
November 28, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Memo to the Team: My vote is “No confidence” in existing tree ring proxies.
Your mission is to restore confidence in tree ring proxies. To do that, you must conduct a rather extensive experiment in remote locations of your choice, where all the significant variables are measured and /or controlled over time. Specifically grow your own trees from seedlings. This should take several decades, maybe close to a century. Report back when you can show the signature of each variable on tree rings/wood independent of the others. If you leave anything out you have to start over. ;<)
==========
All true enough. But there is this other problem that tree ring proxies for the most recent six decades apparently aren't behaving as it is thought they should compared to older data. That implies that even decades of research on how variables affect trees growing today/tomorrow may not reveal much about older data — unless of course the older data is being misassessed.
On top of which, I kinda, sorta, suspect that just maybe tree growth variations wrt temperature, precipitation, et al might vary with species, altitude, soil chemistry, etc.

crosspatch
November 28, 2011 10:56 pm

I have seen experimental results only on conifer species. In those species, elevated CO2 does two things: 1) it accelerates growth and 2) it GREATLY increases the number of viable seeds produced. The growth increase is 2 to 4 times depending on the species. Seed production can be as much as 10x increased. That actually makes sense in other contexts. Gymnosperm species were dominant when CO2 levels were highest. Angiosperm species take over as CO2 levels drop. They (the broad leaf species) also tend to conserve their CO2. In the fall they drop their leaves. In the following year, these decompose releasing CO2 that the forest takes up again. The conifer species drop needles but these tend to decompose only very slowly often taking many years due to the resins they contain acting as a preservative. Those resins tend to act to poison the ground to make it more difficult for other species to invade. But as CO2 levels drop, the conifers produce fewer seeds. CO2 doesn’t seem to have quite as dramatic impact on seed production of broad leaf species.
One thing I might look for if atmospheric CO2 is increasing is to look at areas such as Northern California where you might have a margin of Douglass fir meeting a mixed oak/madrone forest. I would expect to see the fir trees starting to expand their range and start moving into the areas that had been mostly oak/madrone. And in fact I do see just such an occurrence though it might just be local to that specific area. I have a friend with about 500 acres in Mendocino County, California. On this property, over the past 5 years, the Douglass fir seedlings have begin encroaching into the oak and madrone area. My friend regards the firs as weeds and they seem to be a bit vexatious in their spread into the hardwood tree area. It seems to be almost a reverse forest succession with a conifer species starting to crowd out hardwoods.
I would also be interested in any changes recently in the populations of Araucaria globally (“Monkey Puzzle” trees, Norfolk Island pine, Bunya-bunya, etc.) These trees are a VERY old line which evolved when CO2 levels were much higher than today. I wonder if they are doing better now that CO2 levels are higher. Are wild Norfolk Island pines suddenly increasing in number?

crosspatch
November 28, 2011 11:14 pm

Never seen serious study comparing daily minimums and maximums and attributing night warming to GHE. Of course, night warming is also prone to UHI.

GHE would be expected to have its greatest impact in reducing the total radiation of infrared into space. This would have an impact of moderating nighttime low temperatures. It is also the reason why the GHE would be expected to have its greatest impact at the poles because with six months of nighttime, one would expect to see even a small change in the amount of infrared re-radiated back to the surface to have a larger impact. Greenhouse impacts would not be expected to have as much impact on daytime highs because they would also block inbound long wave IR directly from the sun. So what would be expected is actually a moderation of daytime highs and nighttime lows. In an extreme greenhouse such as venus, there would be little difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures.

Ralph
November 29, 2011 12:05 am

>>There really is a problem
>>with the trees not being sensitive to temperature after about 1950. My
>>current best guess is that the higher CO2 since then has caused greater
>>warming at night (which is corroborated by minimum temperature trends,
>>since minimum temperatures usually occur at night).
Do I spy some circular type arguments here?
Ok, so in the modern era, the tree rings are smaller than would be expected because of night temperatures – hence the decline that had to be hidden by YAD061.
But the same would have happened in the Roman and Medieval warming periods. Thus Mann’s historical temperature record should have shown two decreases in temperature for these warming periods. But it does not. Methinks the technique stinks.
.
But I shall say it once more – if so, how on earth can dendrochronology work?
If I had taken a core from YAD061 (the tree with exponential growth) and compared it with the reference tree-ring record, there would have been no match whatsoever. So no date comparison would be possible.
Likewise, if I took a timber from an ancient ship, that came from a tree that was intermittently attacked by pests and had significant decreases in growth ever ten years – how on earth can I compare that to a reference tree-ring record that had no pest infestation?
If tree-rings record local events (reeeaaaly local events, like the big tree next door being blown over), then how can they be compared to a reference record from thousands of kilometers away? And if they cannot be compared, then how on earth can dendrochronology work??
.

John Brookes
November 29, 2011 1:02 am

I’ve occasionally wondered if the effects of air travel are adequately accounted for. A country like the US is absolutely criss-crossed with jet exhaust trails, but this has really only been from half way through last century.
Trees at altitude might be more effected by high cloud than those nearer to sea level.

tallbloke
November 29, 2011 1:36 am

“Trees respire more
at higher temperature, so they lose carbon when nights are warmer
than average. So their ring width has not increased as much as it would
have if the warming had been uniformly distributed over the diurnal cycle.
I think this is all published now so it should be possible to set the whole
record straight. “

Could Jeff be more specific with some cites here?

Pamela Gray
November 29, 2011 2:11 am

Crosspatch!!! Toms grown in hothouses to prevent overgrowth? Puter screen meet coffee spit!!!!!
On the serious side, I’m betting that winter snow pack and summer ground water affects tree-ring growth season a great deal more than nighttime summer temps. Here’s an idea. Ask an established, for profit forest land owner this question: Which variable do they lose sleep over? Oh yeh. Can’t. They haven’t published let alone been peer reviewed. They just sell trees.

LazyTeenager
November 29, 2011 3:15 am

John says
The other thing is that CO2 is a fertilizer. The Idsos and many other researchers have shown time and again that plants grow more quickly with more CO2. Tropical trees and temperate trees add more carbon lately, in our now higher CO2 environment, we’ve seen in a number of studies. So if the trees add more carbon, why would tree rings show less growth?
————
Trees photosynthesise during the day and respire both day and night. So tree growth is the net effect of photosynthesis (CO2 absorption) and respiration (CO2 expiration). Respiration increases with temperature. Photosynthesis is affected by temperature and the amount of CO2 in the air. So if nights are warm respiration may partially cancel out the increased daytime photosynthesis.

coturnix
November 29, 2011 3:29 am

that the higher CO2 since then has caused greater
warming at night

Increase in co2 will decrease nighttime temperatures. Explanation: nights are cooler than days because some of the heat escapes though the window(s) in the ghg absorption spectrum. CO2 increase does nothing to window(s) width, but it will decrease the depth of nighttime inversion, because in denser co2 atmosphere the ability of free troposphere above to warm surface is diminished. That’s why more co2 = more contrast between days and nights, which means either colder nights or warmer days, or increase in daily lows but not as fast as of daytime highs.

November 29, 2011 5:03 am

Well there may be some link somewhere between some tree species and local temperatures, but when we look at 150+ years of temperature records in northern Russia, the tree ring records really do not correlate at all, whereas the thermometer records correlate well with each other.
Treering records should not be smoothed. The correspondences between years (the “lacework details” of the thermometer records are just as important as the longer-term correspondences, to determine usefulness as proxies.
See my work on all this.

Phil
November 29, 2011 5:46 am

Craig Loehle, your paper makes (much more elegantly, and completely) the same point I made in a post up above. Nice work, it appears that my supposition has some merit.
To use Sean Houlihane’s phrasing, what if trees ARE thermometer, but only over a modest range of temperatures? Then we can use the tree data to estimate temperature in the past, and get much of it right, but we won’t know if there are any extremes. If we only cared about the modest ranges, this would be fine, but since we are precisely interested in the extremes, and that is where the trees fail to deliver, the tree rings can’t be used to falsify the possibly of historical warm periods.
(Nice paper, BTW)

Pamela Gray
November 29, 2011 6:40 am

CO2 can only cause indirect warming at night. Surface land and ocean temps cool at night via radiation and at different rates. In dry atmospheric conditions, that cooling can be quite impressive. Cooling is tempered by cloud cover (IE an abundance of water vapor). If diurnal temps have increased in this case, the AGW hypothesis would be of course that night time air must be anomalously humid to cause this warming, and that this additional cloud producing humidity must be caused by the portion of CO2 that is AGW CO2.
I would ask the doctor for observational based (not modeled) references before this can be accepted. There are very powerful natural long and short term cloud producing mechanisms that readily temper night time cooling. That we can place this tempered cooling related to these trees on the back of such a tiny increase in CO2 is quite a stretch.
There is an old saying in medical circles: You must rule out the first encountered pathology. And the first encountered pathology must be short and long term natural weather and climate variation.

Red Etin
November 29, 2011 6:53 am

What temperature is important to a tree? The outside temperature or its internal temperature? I would have thought the latter will influence its metabolic rate.
http://www.fabinet.up.ac.za/sirexweb/sirexlit/Jamieson1957NZJFor.pdf

Kay
November 29, 2011 6:58 am

Severinghaus says that warmer nights mean that trees respire more CO2, hence have less carbon to add to tree rings? That’s very interesting, but I’m not so sure he’s right. It has less to do with CO2 and more to do with the way plants function at night under different day/night temperature conditions.
I’m not a botanist, but I am an avid gardener. Ambient CO2 levels naturally go UP at night because the plants aren’t taking it in. But respiration doesn’t depend on sunlight and occurs not just at night but during the day, too. They not only produce CO2 but release energy and consume O2. On balance, though, the plants take in far more CO2 than they respire.
Now, many species of flowering plants (I know, we’re talking about trees, but I can’t imagine the processes would be any different) grow well ONLY when temperatures during the part of the diurnal cycle that normally comes at night are lower than temperatures during the day. Yes, plants and trees are diurnal and certain functions and processes are more efficient at certain times. For example, cell division takes places just before dawn.
In other words, some species only do well when there is a big enough difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures. If the nighttime minimum temperatures are too warm, it affects plant growth by not exerting enough pressure on the root systems, which affects calcium distribution (and other compounds) to the leaves, buds, and flowers by slowing it down. Too-warm nighttime temperatures also rapidly speeds up respiration, which causes the plant to burn through the assimilates (sugars) it created during the day via photosynthesis. (Cooler temps at night also promotes sugar transport.) When that happens, plant growth is severely limited.
So I think Severinghaus is half-right. He’s in the right church, but the wrong pew. CO2 level has nothing whatever to do with it.

Tilo Reber
November 29, 2011 7:52 am

“Severinghaus says that warmer nights mean that trees respire more CO2, hence have less carbon to add to tree rings?”
Severinghaus is simply pulling it out of his backside. If this idea made sense, then you would get smaller tree rings, even if both day and night warmed together. None of this is driven by any experimental data. It’s a theory made to fit a need, while at the same time trying to retain the idea that trees can be used as thermometers. I saw Mann give a speech at some university where he claimed that the smaller tree rings were due to pollution. What he means by pollution, especially in the remote places where these studies were made, we do not know. Basically they will say anything – make up any excuse – to keep from admitting that trees are very poor thermometers and that the problems being experienced today could well have been happening at other times in the record as well.

JPeden
November 29, 2011 9:51 am

My current best guess is that the higher CO2 since then has caused greater
warming at night (which is corroborated by minimum temperature trends,
since minimum temperatures usually occur at night).

I thought the increased minimums have mostly occurred in Winter. In cities.
Trees respire more at higher temperature, so they lose carbon when nights are warmer
than average. So their ring width has not increased as much as it would
have if the warming had been uniformly distributed over the diurnal cycle.

I’ve found info indicating that roots grow at night at a rate greater than the average, according to an official summary of this question I’d have to go find again. This should help a tree grow rings. And do the rings grow at night using the same respiratory mechanism, given energy availability? Otherwise, it appears that no one knows enough about roots in general.
If he’s talking about the increase in respiratory energy lost at night with warmer temps, then another question is, even if it is even significantly “lost”, can it be effectively compensated for, if needed, during the day by photosynthesis. Trees seem to be very specialized and adaptable at the same time.
Too many variables, especially with wild trees, where no one knows what has gone on both below and above ground throughout each of their histories. That’s why they’re called “wild”.

Gail Combs
November 29, 2011 10:07 am

I have not read the comment yet so forgive me if this point has already been brought up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

…..There really is a problem with the trees not being sensitive to temperature after about 1950. My current best guess is that the higher CO2 since then has caused greater warming at night (which is corroborated by minimum temperature trends, since minimum temperatures usually occur at night)…..

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ERRRRrrrr, there is directly measured evidence that this is not the case.

This is a guest post by Philip Bradley….
An analysis of Australian temperature data recorded at fixed times, and the implications for the ‘global average land surface temperature’ derived from minimum and maximum temperatures
Jonathan Lowe, an Australian statistician, has performed extensive analysis of weather data recorded at fixed times by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). This analysis is available at his blog, A Gust of Hot Air. The data comes from 21 weather stations manned by professional meteorologists….
1. Using a minimum and maximum temperature dataset exaggerates the increase in the global average land surface temperature over the last 60 years by approximately 45%
2. Almost all the warming over the last 60 years occurred between 6am and 12 noon
3. Warming is strongly correlated with decreasing cloud cover during the daytime and is therefore caused by increased solar insolation…
Part 2 – Almost all of the warming over the last 60 years occurred between 6am and 12 noon
Jonathan uses the simple but elegant method of subtracting the temperature at one three-hour interval from the temperature at the next three-hour interval to determine at what times of day the warming over the last 60 years has occurred. This breaks down the total warming over the last 60 years into three-hour slices of the day.
You can see his graphs here – http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/2009/04/analysis-of-australian-temperature-part_16.html
He finds that warming has occurred in only three of these time slices; 6am to 9am, 9am to 12 noon and 6pm to 9pm. The other five three-hour time slices show either a cooling trend or no significant trend.
In parts 3 and 4, I discuss physical mechanisms that would cause temperature rises to be restricted to these time periods.
Jonathan’s analysis shows that there has been no warming occurring at nighttime at all since 1950. Although nighttime temperatures have risen due to residual heat from warmer days.
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/11/4/australian-temperatures.html

Theo Goodwin
November 29, 2011 10:15 am

Tilo Reber says:
November 29, 2011 at 7:52 am
As many have pointed out, including Tilo, there has been no empirical research that can tell us why tree ring width declined. What The Team have offered and offers is nothing but hunches. Until there is empirical research on at least one variety of tree that can tell us about the changes in growth rates for tree rings and the environmental changes that cause them, tree ring data cannot be used as a proxy for temperature. This applies to all tree ring data extending into the past. That tree ring data has not been supported through empirical research.
The point should be extended to all paleo data. Paleo data is used today only because it has been used in the past. But none of it, present or past, has been subjected to serious empirical research that would provide some support for the data and, more important, some scientific basis for distinguishing good paleo data from bad. By contrast, archeologists can use radiocarbon dating to assign dates to historic and pre-historic artifacts with reasonable confidence because there is a well-confirmed science that explains techniques of radiocarbon dating. There is no such thing for tree rings as proxies for temperature. For that reason, all claims based on tree ring proxies must be treated as hunches and not genuine science.
This message came to The Team more than a decade ago from prominent scientists, such as Professor Daly, who warned them that they must adopt scientific method in the practice of paleoclimatology. I am sad to say that I have come to believe that the members of The Team truly do not understand the message. They truly do not understand that their claims about tree rings as proxies for temperature are not empirical claims at all. These studies must be rejected because there is no empirical support for them. All articles by The Team that rely on tree ring width data, past and present articles, must be withdrawn.

JPeden
November 29, 2011 10:38 am

Tilo Reber says:
November 29, 2011 at 7:52 am
“Severinghaus says that warmer nights mean that trees respire more CO2, hence have less carbon to add to tree rings?”
Severinghaus is simply pulling it out of his backside.

Amen. As usual the Climate Scientists just make it up to [not] fit. And now those increased temps. at night are gonna kill trees, QED!
But they should have stuck to blaming the Moon. That does fit.

JPeden
November 29, 2011 10:47 am

“Gail Combs says:
November 29, 2011 at 10:07 am”
Dittos. http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/2009/04/analysis-of-australian-temperature-part_16.html
I got to Lowe’s site last night while looking for night time minimums. But it’s only Australia, dontcha know, so it doesn’t “fit”.

Steve Garcia
November 29, 2011 10:51 am

@Theo Goodwin says:
November 29, 2011 at 10:15 am

As many have pointed out, including Tilo, there has been no empirical research that can tell us why tree ring width declined. What The Team have offered and offers is nothing but hunches. Until there is empirical research on at least one variety of tree that can tell us about the changes in growth rates for tree rings and the environmental changes that cause them, tree ring data cannot be used as a proxy for temperature.

Actually, as to empirical studies, the Hätteneschwiler, Schweingruber and Körner 2006 paper “Tree ring responses to elevated CO2 and increased N deposition in Picea abies” (http://tiny.cc/v6fve) does this for spruce trees, for elevated CO2 and Nitrogen. That is not the only environmental change that needs to be looked at, but it is at least a start.
I agree. NONE of the claims of tree rings as proxies – no matter how suggestive or reasonable sounding – should be considered valid until the ALL the underlying assumptions are empirically tested – and quantified. Prior to that, it is no more science than Plato and Aristotle conjecturing back in ancient Greece – it all sounds good, but it isn’t science.