From the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
University of Miami study rethinks the ocean’s role in Pacific climate
The new study can aid scientists in better understanding regional and global effects of climate change in the Pacific
MIAMI – November 15, 2011 – University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science researchers have climate scientists rethinking a commonly held theory about the ocean’s role in the global climate system. The new findings can aid scientists in better understanding and predicting changes in the Pacific climate and its impacts around the globe.
According to the study’s lead author, UM Rosenstiel School Professor Amy Clement, the tropical atmospheric pressure system know as the Southern Oscillation (a periodic fluctuation of atmospheric pressure commonly observed as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which brings unusually warm water across the Pacific Ocean basin) plays a bigger, more fundamental role in the climate system than just being El Niño’s atmospheric counterpart.
Scientists have long believed that the Southern Oscillation exists due to its connection to the ocean. “This study changes the textbook version of one of the most fundamental aspects of atmospheric circulation,” said Clement, whose study was published in the August 2011 issue of American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate.
In two sets of experiments, Clement, recent UM alumnus Pedro DiNezio, and co-author Clara Deser from the National Center for Atmospheric Research modeled two climate scenarios – one with a static, current-free ocean and another with a fully dynamic ocean. The team showed that atmospheric pressure, surface temperature, and precipitation were the same in both ocean scenarios, which reveals that the Southern Oscillations global signature is still present even when the ocean and atmosphere are disconnected.
In a news item in the Sept. 29 issue of the journal Nature, Research Institute for Global Change scientists Jing-Jia Luo said, “…Clement et al. argue impressively that it is not necessary to couple ocean dynamics to the atmosphere in models to reproduce tropi¬cal climate modes and their associated global connections.”
British physicist Sir Gilbert Walker discovered the Southern Oscillation in the early 20th century when trying to understand and predict India’s monsoons, which caused torrential rains and widespread famine in the region. He proved that this large-scale sea-level pressure in the tropics connected India’s weather with other weather patterns across the world.
“This new development can help link climate patterns between distant region, such as rainfall patterns in Australia and drought in the Southwestern U.S.,” said Clement.
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Just to be annoying: Where does the study show a larger ENSO driven component in climate?
It just argues for a new view on the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in what we view as ENSO.
He’s asking for comments, not proclaiming the paper as having been brought down from the summit of Mt Sinai. If you’ve read it and have something constructive to add, you know where to do so.
Careful! Studies such as this are funded by you-know-who, and you know what good old you-know-who will do to each and every one of us if we laugh too hard or too soon at this trojan-horse press release. It’s too too late for those who have commented already, their goose is cooked, they’ve crossed the Rubicon with loaded dice, if you know what I mean. But for those who are thinking that this is just another quack study from a bunch of meat-heads who don’t know the first thing about simulations, model-based studies, 6th tier computer programming, and the sense of humor of Chinese bankers indirectly footing the bill for all this high-interest scientific research, please, I beg you, STOP, think again. I have no doubt whatsoever that the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science will soon be passing out an addendum to their press release and all those who laughed and ridiculed this breathtaking breakthrough in Post-Modern Climate Science will be eating their words for breakfast. Well… I have no doubt that they hope that will be what happens if they can re-boot the computer in the Public Relations Department and get something out via the National Science Foundation’s Website after it’s been blessed by you-know-who who’s you know where in Asia or somewhere. Now the chances of their success are quite small, that is to say, in Polly-Speak, Very Significant; so if you haven’t said anything that’s likely to get your head shaved, you may want to hold off for at least another 3 hours. (Once again, from the land of LSD and mayhem, where Bozos and New New Math reign forever, this is Walter “Bunkem Baby” Corkright saying, Good Night, Good Weather, and Stop That CO2! Oh yes… and Sarc/Off)
PS: Opppps… I have the terrible feeling that you-know-who isn’t going to like what I just said about the Great, Fascinating, Groundbreaking Scientific Study. I guess I’m toast too.
The more I think about this, the fact that the climate model used in this paper creates an ENSO effect in the atmosphere without it being coupled to the ocean may be a sign of significant problems with the climate model.
This is a nit, but I was looking at the Nino3.4 on the WUWT Reference Pages, and noticed that for the last 4 SST declines since 2007 (including the current one) there is a pause on the way down that occurs shortly after the decline starts (~1-3 months by eye). The Feb-Aug 2007 pause is the longest one.
Does this have any mechanistic significance, or is it just coincidence?
When a model give you unexpected results that are contrary to all observational science done in the past century, there are two possibilities:
1) You have discovered something new through purely analytical work. This does happen sometimes.
2) The model has a fatal problem and isn’t correctly modeling the real world.
Which happens more often? I don’t have any observational evidence, but I have a model that suggests that case number two is significantly more likely. lol.
Bob Tisdale (November 15, 2011 at 5:20 pm) wrote:
“Yet another model-based study.”
I agree that this is a problem.
–
Bob Tisdale (November 16, 2011 at 5:21 pm) added:
“The more I think about this, the fact that the climate model used in this paper creates an ENSO effect in the atmosphere without it being coupled to the ocean may be a sign of significant problems with the climate model.”
I would suggest that we be careful here.
The pressure gradient force is a function of temperature gradients. Equator-pole temperature gradients would exist with any distribution of land & sea. Land-sea heat-capacity contrast (which exists without coupling) produces gyres [ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Ocean_currents_1943_%28borderless%293.png ] because of the geometry of air basin boundaries (meteorological equator & continents).
I would suggest that they’ve realized what has already been obvious to Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) experts. If so, this marks a crucial spark (of historical significance) in climate science and paves the way to appreciating & understanding solar & lunisolar constraints on mass distribution & flow. With a firming grip on the role of simple spatial geometry & absolute gradients (as opposed to anomaly averages), they may be close to opening their minds to the notion that interannual terrestrial oscillations follow strange non-chaotic attractors that can be modeled like tides.
If you want to predict El Nino, you have to predict the solar wind speed, and stratospheric volcano eruptions. Low SW speeds, and
large eruptions, both drive El Nino conditions.
http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/tmp/images/ret_13923.gif