The major winter storm in Alaska mentioned overnight on WUWT, while weaker than the previous record storm 1974, gets pegged as being “aided and abetted by global warming”:
While the storm is weaker than the ’74 event, it appears to fit into a long-term pattern with a global-warming connection.
Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.
With this sort of “journalism” it will soon come to pass that any significant weather event, anytime, will be connected to global warming climate change climate disruption. Sheesh, the stupid, it burns.
And where’s the proof? There is none, it is pure speculation, and not even good speculation at that.And as we see time and time again, when somebody speculates on these events, the analysis shows otherwise.
- Tornadoes linked to global warming- FALSE
- Hurricanes linked to global warming- FALSE
- Flooding linked to global warming- FALSE
- Increased deaths due to storminess in the era of global warming- FALSE
I’ve said it before, and it bears repeating: how do we know the number and intensity measurements of storms aren’t due to reporting bias? 100 years ago, if when such a storm rolled in, did we have satellites, weather networks, and insta-launch web opinion to tell us it was connected to warming coming out of the little ice age? No. Were we even aware of such storms? Maybe – weeks or months later, if they got reported at all.
And what about this statement?
Dr. Masters notes that several studies over the past several years have documented an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed.
What happened in the 1960’s? Weather satellites, and weather monitoring was standardized in Alaska, thanks to it becoming the 49th state in 1959.
And what’s on the NWS page for Alaska today? Nothing about it being related to global warming, nor “worst ever” nor “epic”, like we see in the media today. For the NWS in Alaska, it seems to be just another big winter storm.
This bears repeating: Why it seems that severe weather is “getting worse” when the data shows otherwise – a historical perspective
Tell writer Pete Spotts what you think of this here
h/t to WUWT reader A. Scott
UPDATE: 11/09/2011 7PM PST
Commenter Phillip Bradley writes:
…while midlatitude cyclone activity generally decreased from 1960 to the early 1990s, in agreement with previous studies. New findings include the following. 1) The number and intensity of cyclones entering the Arctic from the midlatitudes has increased, suggesting a shift of storm tracks into the Arctic, particularly in summer. 2) Positive tendencies of midlatitude cyclone activity before and after the 1960–93 period of decreasing activity.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C2300%3ACAIVOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Masters’ claim of,
…an increase in the number of these intense wintry storms in the northern hemisphere over the past century, with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s
Looks to be false.
I examined the paper and made this excerpt from Zhang et al 2004:
Doesn’t look like any significant trend to me. They write in the paper:
The trajectory counts of cyclones originating in the two regions also show signatures consistent with the CAI variability in the Arctic region (Fig. 11b). Specifically, there was a generally increasing tendency from 1955 to 1980 and a decreasing tendency after 1980 for both types of cyclones.
UPDATE2: 7:45PM PST – The NWS is now making claims of a Cat3 hurricane equivalent in this KTUU-TV news story:
Really? Where?
One the places cited in many news stories as being a problem spot is Kivalina. There’s not even any Cat1 winds there: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PAVL.html
And Weather Underground sure doesn’t look all that bad, no hurricane force winds on this map:
The worst I found was Tin City, which briefly had Cat1 level winds:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/PATC.html
UPDATE3: 8:15PM PST – the climb-down, no Cat 3 hurricane here:
Earlier today (see comment from John below for full text)
932 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011 …ALASKA WEST COAST TO BE HIT BY ONE OF THE MOST SEVERE BERING SEA STORMS ON RECORD… A POWERFUL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD MAGNITUDE IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
WWAK82 PAFG 100330 SPSWCZ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 630 PM AKST WED NOV 9 2011 ... ...STRONG STORM CONTINUES TO BUFFET WESTERN ALASKA... THE STRONG STORM WHICH HAS BEEN BATTERING WESTERN ALASKA MOVED NORTH OF THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY AND IS ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CURVE NORTHWEST REACHING WRANGELL ISLAND LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HARD HITTING WEATHER WITH THIS STORM IS FAR FROM OVER AS SEA LEVELS RISE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER NORTON SOUND...THE BERING STRAIT...AND THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM POINT HOPE SOUTH. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HAVE DIMINISHED TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH...BUT THIS DIRECTION FAVORS MUCH MORE MOVEMENT OF SEA WATER INTO THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES RAISING THE WATER LEVEL SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE TIDES. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SO FAR: BUCKLAND........56 MPH AT 316AM WED CAPE LISBURNE...81 MPH AT 700AM WED CAPE ROMANZOF...60 MPH AT 300AM WED DEERING.........61 MPH AT 319AM WED EMMONAK.........62 MPH AT 1100PM TUE GAMBELL.........74 MPH AT 600PM TUE GOLOVIN.........64 MPH AT 1200AM WED KIANA...........54 MPH AT 715AM WED KIVALINA........71 MPH AT 323AM WED KOTZEBUE........74 MPH AT 600AM WED KOYUK...........41 MPH AT 800AM WED MARSHALL........64 MPH AT 1100PM TUE NOATAK..........62 MPH AT 1036AM WED NOME............61 MPH AT 900PM TUE NOORVIK.........67 MPH AT 423AM WED POINT HOPE......78 MPH AT 500AM WED RED DOG MINE....48 MPH AT 935AM WED SAINT MARYS.....61 MPH AT 900PM TUE ST MICHAEL......68 MPH AT 1200AM WED SAVOONGA........76 MPH AT 700PM TUE SCAMMON BAY.....72 MPH AT 800PM TUE SHAKTOOLIK......64 MPH AT 115AM WED SHISHMAREF......57 MPH AT 1216AM WED SHUNGNAK........69 MPH AT 900AM WED TELLER..........71 MPH AT 600AM WED TIN CITY........85 MPH AT 1200AM WED UNALAKLEET......66 MPH AT 1200AM WED WALES...........89 MPH AT 142AM WED
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
This is yet another reason why I DON’T use the Weather Underground. “Wunderground” went down hill anyway with their “new” format, and one of the worst radar presentations anywhere, so I made the switch long ago to Intellicast.com. I really don’t care what Jeff Masters says anymore – it’s all too predictable – and I likewise do NOT want to enrich him (Jeff Masters) by utilizing his weather website.
You Republicans are obviously mentally deficient not to understand that the world is coming to an end …… unless we pay Al Gore. /Sarc
I’ll see your “increase in the number of these intense wintry storms” and raise by my “Report tips bumper crop – The fourth largest crop in the state’s history has been forecast this year” in South Australia (Adelaide Advertiser 10Nov11).
Why is it that the do-gooders wish to change the world to their idea of perfection with no regard for the 99.99% that don’t live where they are and will have negative effects from the changes they want to foist on everyone?
No doubt the warmists will dismiss AGW as causing the bumper crop while accepting the storms are caused by the same effect.
Wow… the world would be such a placid place without anthropogenic CO2.
Masters ought to revisit his history…. the “global warming” that he cited as the contributor to the 1974 event was actually global cooling according to a contemporaneous news article in NewsWeek April 1975.
http://denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf
Loser.
Bruce of Newcastle —you are right. add to your examples , the last time the flod gates in the lower Mississippi were opened ( before this year ) was in the early 1970’s ( not sure if it was 1974). Time to do some more research on weather events of 1973/4.
“… with a marked upward swing beginning in the mid-1960s, as the global climate has warmed…”
No upswing in the 1960s, but also the global climate did not warm in or around the 1960s.
The opposite is true the downturn in temperatures led to publications like this:
http://denisdutton.com/newsweek_coolingworld.pdf
last night in Melbourne (Australia) we had a severe storm warning and workers were sent home early to avoid this threatening event. We checked the yard and the house, everything was secure, we were ready. The sky grew dark, the rain pelted down for a couple of hours and then it passed. What storm, a bit of wind and rain ain’t no storm. Talk about panic the masses for no good reason. Reminds me of something, now what is it, ah its gone. I’m sure I’ll remember what it is, later.
Off Topic – Joe Paterno was fired from Penn State today yet Michael Mann keeps drawing a salary. Amazing!
Well, they can’t blame the atomic tests any more — they’ve got to find a scapegoat somewhere.
@ur momisugly John says: November 9, 2011 at 6:24 pm
I’ve gone and searched the NWS database and can find no mention of word ‘epic’ as described in the comment you provided that we are to assume came from the NWS.
I did however search the internet and found several other journalists making the pronouncement that the NWS did use those words but none of them provide a link to that warning or wording.
I did stumble upon an article from Jim Spencer, a author for KXAN, an Austin based news agency.
You can find that article here:
http://blogs.kxan.com/2011/11/09/alaska-coast-pounded-by-epic-storm/
Jim Spencer also provides no link of the NWS alert warning, yet the article is presented to resemble a NWS warning.
At the end of that article we find these words:
But having researched those words both on several search engines and from the NOAA database, I returned 5 matches from that blockquote, but when I link to those publications, the words epic or rarely experience DO NOT show up on those web pages.
Im not certain, but since the NWS uses BING to handle queries for searches, I can only speculate how Bing or Google arrive at putting quotes and addresses together.
Just more of the same drivel from other alarmist journalists.
So I’ve sent a e-mail to Joe Stephens and asked him to provide the link where he got that NWS message and provide it to me.
I would also like to ask the gentleman I am addressing, John, to provide the proper link that the NWS used to make that announcement.
Otherwise, this is a clear message of lies and just another example of propaganda that has surfaced to discredit the skeptic.
My God gentlemen, I think we have shaken someones money-maker.
Way to go !
We here in the central plains know a little about wind. We can have winds as strong as those listed above on pleasant sunny days! Monday, with our earthquakes, we had tornadoes and straight winds of over 90 mph. I think it makes as much sense to blame earthquakes on global warming as it does arctic storms.
I used to think that wisdom was wasted on the youth. Now I think wisdom is being wasted on climate scientists.
The earth constantly goes through natural events, some of them are disasters.
That’s why when disasters happen in nature most thinking people call them “natural disasters.”
I’ve also noticed that Dr. Master’s site has been leaning more towards alarm-ism recently – so much so that people have suggested a name chance to AGWunderground…
Shades of Irene perhaps?????
What powers storms like this is convection. That is warm air rising in cooler air. So the engine is the difference in temperature between the surface and that at high altitude. The greater the difference, the stronger the convection. In other words, put a pot of water in a sauna, and you will get very weak convection from the surface of the water. Put that same pot of hot water in a freezer and you will get very strong convection.
So, yes, if you increase surface temperatures, that would tend to increase the strength of convection all other things being equal (for example, if the temperature at high altitude is the same). But that tells only one side of the equation. If the temperatures at altitude are cooler, you will get increased convection and stronger storms with no change in surface temps. What matters is the difference between the two. So upper atmosphere cooling has basically the same impact as surface warming.
Now go here: http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/amsutemps.html and select Channel 5 (14,000 feet) temperatures. Draw the graph and then select 2008 and 2009 (in addition to the preselected 2010 and 2011) and you will notice that the current global temperatures at 14,000 feet are currently very cold. In fact, the are at record cold temperatures since measurements have been taken by satellite. So what we have here is a record difference in temperatures between the surface and the air aloft. That is going to create the conditions for some pretty strong convection and some pretty strong storms to form if all other conditions are right.
So while it is true that surface warming CAN increase storms, that is only true if the upper atmosphere remains cool. Warming the surface is one way to increase the difference. But in this case what is happening is the air aloft is very cold allowing greater convection with a stable surface temperature.
C’mon folks…
‘Cause everbody knows,
That the warmer it gets
The more that it snows.
Now Algore is a jerk
And Mann is a liar
But this cold snowy warming
Proves the earth’s in a fryer.
All these arguments about weather reminded me of this
http://youtu.be/xUAsD0OWKg4
I was watching this pretty closely yesterday and observed that the lowest pressure occurred at PAGM (Gambell AK) a small island off of the mainland. The strongest winds I saw there were at 0536Z with winds sustained at 53G63 knots. The altimeter though bottomed out between 1016Z-1056Z at A2821. Only saw a low that low while stationed in Iceland.
Teller airport (PATE) came pretty close at 0919Z with sustained winds 17055G62KTS
I thought I saw the NWS special warning statement while looking on the nws.noaa.gov website for other weather warnings on the Pacific Coast that day, but I cannot find such a web page now to confirm or refute it.
Some of the news reports to see are:
The MSNBC news stories quote Jeff Osiensky talking about the threat of the storm reaching a Category 3 intensity. Other NWS/NOAA commentators talk about Global Warming removing the kind of ice cover which afforded protection in the 1974 storm, readiness to declare a state of emergency, and related alarms for this storm.
Also, that report from the NWS isn’t the 2 minuted average of sustained winds…it is the highest gust. The actual ob from 11Z states:
PATC 091055Z AUTO 13061G70KT 3/4SM M03/M06
And the specials from earlier:
PATC SP 1035 AWOS MM 3/4 25/20/1362G69
PATC SP 1015 AWOS MM 3/4 25/20 1362G70
I found this on JAAWIN, raw trends. You can probably also find it on ADDS under METARS. So, what this tells me is that, according to local observations taken by official observing devices, there were no hurricane force winds.
It should also be remembered how the naval convoys during WWII (1939–1945) experienced dangerous hurricane force weather in the North Atlantic, before the claimed onslaught of increases in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were supposed to have changed the global climate and storm patterns.
Now that the globe is cooling what will the alarmists try next?
Durban needs a some real proof and this storm was a godsend, sadly it turned out to be a storm in a tea cup. What a shame even the CO2 outputs from developed countries are pointing in the wrong direction. Parody and satire from non believers is a sign that the warmists have ran their course. The pathetic releases of their information of late trying to link everything that happens to AGW gives me pause that perhaps I should feel pity for these misguided people.
Then I remember the cost and the brain washing of children and feel an emotion that is some what less than pity.