How long before somebody blames it on global warming? Who will be first? Romm? McKibben? AP Science writer Seth Borenstein?, some clueless politician?
New York has received measurable snow before Halloween only 3 times since 1869. These events were never more than one inch. If the forecast holds, this would be the earliest 1″ snowfall in New York City since the Civil War.
Here’s NOAA’s snowfall forecast map for the area:
And the warning is out:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 855 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...A MAJOR EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY... NJZ002-NYZ067-068-291000- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0600Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 855 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY IN INTENSITY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. THE DAMAGE COULD BE QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 855 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...A MAJOR EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY... NJZ002-NYZ067-068-291000- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0008.111029T1200Z-111030T0600Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM- 855 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY IN INTENSITY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL RESULT IN DOWNED TREES...TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. THE DAMAGE COULD BE QUITE EXTENSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
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No wonder. Global warming causes everything.
Someone at the New York Times of course. Likely they will tie it in to the occupy movement as well.
The warm climate of the past couple decades will cause the cooling that will take place in the future. This storm isn’t an indicator of anything, but it certainly is interesting.
Since the civil war the tilt of the Earth has been decreasing. That will cause slowly cooling summers and slightly warm the winters. The transitions between will be turbulent as the spring/fall seasons always are. This is how the Earth has always behaved.
Sometimes it is fun to watch the warmists explain why the natural cycles are being altered by CO2, but usually it is just tedious. I expect that this story will be more tedious than anything else.
Yup. No doubt about it. Man made global warming. Rich white man, that is…
Well at least we know where The Goreacle will be this weekend…
Just wait for the series of Arctic blasts behind this storm! The first week of November could set many record cold temperatures across a vast swath of North America.
Simulated Radar (rain+snow) from the newest NCEP 4-km resolution NAM/WRF
8-day forecast of near-surface temperature anomalies from NCEP GFS global model. Note temperatures are in Celsius and the purple is roughly 20C below climatology!
Like every bad thing. this could well be caused by CO2. Perhaps the melting point of ice is increased at those unprecedented CO2 concentrations…
*yawn*
I measure early storms against Lake Storm “Aphid”, aka the October Surprise Storm. It started late afternoon of October 12, 2006, and finished with a bang early morning (just after sunrise) of October 13, 2006 … actually, it finished with lots of bangs, as transformers were blowing all over the place and tree limbs were snapping all night. The clouds were such pretty shades of greens, blues, and purples as they reflected the light from the blowing transformers. I live in the storm’s bulls-eye (Lancaster) where we got two feet of the pretty white stuff.
Actually, even six inches of the heavy wet stuff will wreck havoc with trees with their leaves still present and power lines that then get pulled down.
Some folks are going to have an interesting weekend.
For more info on Buffalo’s most impressive early storm, see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Surprise_Storm
I think that it would be appropriate for James Hansen to visit, sporting a Speedo for the occasion. 🙂
Bye bye Occupy Wall Street protesters. Their tents aren’t going to keep them warm from the snow storm.
When it’s a mild December in tne NE,will you all be saying the same?
Because there’s a good chance that it will be……..
Wasn’t their arguement that because the world’s warmer it means there’s more moisture in the air, that means snow falls will be heavier? So yes, a lot of unseasonal or seasonal snow is the proof of global warming.
Ryan Maue says: Just wait for the series of Arctic blasts behind this storm! The first week of November could set many record cold temperatures across a vast swath of North America.
NCAR has already accounted for that in their discussion…
https://www2.ucar.edu/staffnotes/research/5566/el-nino-climate-change-coming-century
…of Stevenson et al (2011) “Will there be a Significant Change to El Nino in the 21st Century?”.
They conclude their Staff Notes article with, “However, the warmer and moister atmosphere of the future could make ENSO events more extreme. For example, the model predicts the blocking high pressure south of Alaska that often occurs during La Niña winters to strengthen under future atmospheric conditions, meaning that intrusions of Arctic air into North America typical of La Niña winters could be stronger in the future.”
In other words, greenhouse gases will cause it to be colder.
I have had snow on my tents several times. It actually makes it warmer. I think of it as the igloo effect.
@Wucash
The argument was that there are warmer Autumns and Winters and Springs. Too bad they are wrong on all three counts. When it is warmer it rains, not snows. It’s pretty basic.
I am sitting here in Harrisburg, PA waiting for the climate change crystals to start falling in this global warming storm. Should be fun until we start to lose power. The grid still hasn’t fully recovered after Lee and Irene. We have power, of course, but there are still some permanent fixes to lines and poles, etc. that haven’t been completed. With the leaves still on many trees and this heavy et stuff coming at us all day today, it could be a fun weekend. Glad the globe is so much warmer nowadays so we won’t have to freeze if we lose power. Oh, wait a minute… You mean warming causes unusually cold and snowy events, too? Reminds me of one of my favorite Homer Simpson quotes (just replace doughnuts with AGW): “Doughnuts – is there nothing they can’t do?”
Here in NW Virginia we have 1/2 inch of “extreme weather which must be caused by global warming” or “made more extreme and/or more frequent by global warming(TM)” that is still coming down. Might get a few inches even here at 600 feet elevation. While I believe there is modest global warming from manmade CO2, this is just weather, sorry catastrophists.
Rhys Jaggar said “Because there’s a good chance that it will be (a mild December).” That’s probably wrong. The Arctic Oscillation will determine whether it is cold here (in lower North America) in December. It will probably be negative in December judging from the last few years and send colder air our way.
I’m north of Philly. In my 45 years I’ve only seen flurries this early in the season. It is predicted we’ll get 6 inches. At a party last night I mentioned ” where’s the global warming when you need it?”. Other than groans one guy (a chemist) said we ought to drag our lawnmowers out and just let them idle all day to boost the see-oh-two.
They are reporting on the news that the Occupy Philly crow,d which has been growing, are in tents that aren’t suited for harsh winter weather. I wonder how long they will stick it out with the snow and 50 mph gusts? Should be fun to watch the movement crumble under the power of “global warming”.
@Leon: That report on the Buffalo October storm “Aphid” was interesting. I didn’t realize the Weather Service had a naming scheme for snowstorms as well as hurricanes!
If news media started using those names, it would certainly make things more distinct than the current practice of calling EVERY big storm the “Snowpocalypse.”
I better winterize the garden pronto!
BTW Anthony, stop playing and get back to work 🙂
Surely, it’s just the climate disruption side of cAGW. Any more questions?
Here in W Europe the jets have been stubbornly pushing north in an upswing just off the UK for some time now which is a feature of La Nina periods.
That gives mild southerly winds for us.
The jets are pushing south elsewhere though including over North America so there is clearly a more meridional flow than we have been used to which to me indicates a net cooling process overall.
At the same time the quiet sun is allowing the development of larger and colder polar air masses than previously according to the charts that I have seen. I kept a print of the temperature pattern in late 2007 and comparing it to now there is a clear shift towards a colder northern hemisphere for the time of year.
This is the latest such chart:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn125.html
If anyone could find the corresponding chart for the same date in 2007 and set them side by side here then readers will see what I mean.
The cooling solar effect has been ameliorated a bit as we approach cycle 24 maximum but it is clearly stronger than it was during the late 20th century when more powerful solar cycles caused much more zonal jets.
I think the link between solar activity levels and the behaviour of the surface pressure distribution is steadily becoming more apparent.
Rhys Jaggar says:
October 29, 2011 at 1:00 am
“When it’s a mild December in tne NE,will you all be saying the same?”
“Because there’s a good chance that it will be……..”
No. Because weather is NOT climate…is it?
We’ve had October snow here in New Hampshire in the recent past, so this is not unusual for us. I just don’t like the fact I have to put my snow tires on early this year…
“However, the warmer and moister atmosphere of the future could make ENSO events more extreme.”
How can they say this with a straight face when during the recent warming phase there has been no increased moister in the atmosphere at global levels.
This continuing of ignoring data observations for the model is increasingly worrying with anti- science.